Should one of Horf/Smith come off the bench?

[mrhonline]

Take a look at the top 20 units listed here: 82games.com

I divided the results into four categories, with the intent of looking at the success of Horford in the lineup compared with Smith:

Lineup	% of Total Min	Pts. Scored/Poss.	Pts. Allowed/Poss	Win-Loss %
Smith only	29%	1.17	1.03	64.1%
Horford only	23%	1.13	1.09	60.6%
Both	40%	1.08	1.09	47.3%
Neither	8%	1.04	1.12	40.9%

• To me, the thing that sticks out the most is how much better the Hawks play with only one of Horford or Smith in the lineup. Knowing what we know, I think this is fairly strong evidence that both Horford and Smith are power forwards.
  
  
• I think what you're seeing with Smith's numbers are his inconsistent effort, which is why his W-L% is only slightly better than Horford's despite the pts/possession being strongly in Smith's favor. (IOW, when Smith is playing well, the Hawks are a tough team to beat. When he's off, they are a much easier team to beat).
  
  
• You can also see how amazingly sucky the Hawks' frontcourt depth is, but you didn't need to look at stats to know that.

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I do want to point out one more item for discussion - how well each guy plays alongside the Bibby-JJ-Williams-Pachulia group that would be the starting lineup if the other PF were to go to the bench:

Lineup	Total Min	Pts. Scored/Poss.	Pts. Allowed/Poss	Win-Loss %
Smith	193	1.06	1.08	50.0%
Horford	130	1.05	1.02	68.1%

Perhaps the idea of making Josh the "Ultimate 6th man" isn't such a bad idea after all? Edited February 28, 2009 by mrhonline

[exodus]

I think first you need to look at other examples of starting calibur players coming off the bench. In most cases it is done to get these guys more shots.

Manu is clearly better than anyone playing in front of him but Pop knows there are only so many shots to go around. Manu is able to get more shots coming off the bench when one or more of the other starters is out.

McHale, the Microwave, even Flip. The pattern is clear. Guys can get more shots coming off the bench. the question is do you really want Smith taking more shots?

[Cwell]

this is something I said about Horford a couple games ago. I said he'd prolly have to end up coming off the bench in the future.

[crimedog]

I like Al coming off the bench a little better. I think a) he doesn't get many touches because he's raw offensively, and this would help him develop there b) he is oftentimes foul prone and he might be better off with Zaza taking those first few minutes c) he plays best as an "energy guy" and energy guys can take advantage off the bench and d) he is able to back up both spots fairly effectively which allows us to be more versatile.

[frankthetank966]

This is a terrible argument. Horford is only going to get better the next few yrs. You would really rather have Zaza starting? I think Zaza is really just a lot better off the bench.

[Cwell]

This is a terrible argument. Horford is only going to get better the next few yrs. You would really rather have Zaza starting? I think Zaza is really just a lot better off the bench.

this is no argument of somebody being better than the other. U missunderstood the purpose.

[HawkNJersey]

Neither....leave well enough alone. But is there a such thing as the Head Coach, being the 6th man on the coaching staff?

They are both effective, when we stop that damn switching scheme that Woody deploys on D. He hardly used it last night and Smoove and Horford had 30 rebs between them. And they remained in position to challenge every drive and every shot in the post.

On O, it's simple...stop with the ISO's that place our big men out on the permiter and clearly out of offensive rebound position. Last night Al took the shot from the high post, that's been there all year. His advantage over less mobile centers, is highlighted here. If he plays PF, he will then be guarded by the most mobile big, which negates that advantage. AL and Smoove, could both be effective in the PnRoll game if used more often...

[mattlanta]

This scenario is what I have been fearing ever since I saw Horford play. I wish we could still somehow develop Josh Smith's perimeter offense and maybe give him a consistent mid-range jumpshot. Although I don't think it'd be as simple as Marvin adding a three pointer to his arsenal because Josh Smith's mechanics are light years behind Marvin's so it would be more than just changing his form to add a consistent mid-range shot. But if we could somehow move Josh Smith to the three, and Horford to the four, and then sign-and-trade Marvin for a solid 5, we would be set.

exodus makes the best and most understandable point. I don't think I want Smith shooting more shots right now.

[benhillboy]

Al is simply too good to come off the bench, and Josh isn't mentally or emotionally stable enough to accept a diminished role. I think he is coming to the realization that after last year, he should've been well on his way to becoming an All-Star, yet he is drifting farther away from it. Coming off the bench would ignite him, and not in a good way. I also can't imagine more jumpers for Josh. Each J he shoots exponentially decreases our chances of winning.

[HawksFan87]

neither... if anyone would come off the bench it would be marvin not al or josh...

[exodus]

Some here are completely missing the point. Having one of Smith/Horford has nothing to do with who is better or if they are better than Zaza.

The big problem is the steep falloff when both are out of the game. When only 1 of them is in a game at a time the Hawks do well but when they are both out it is trouble. Therefore the goal should be to minimize the amount of time that they are both out. The logical way to do that is to bring one of them off the bench.

Ginobili comes off the bench even though he is a mile better than anyone starting in front of him. Ben Gordon came off the bench for years even though he was the Bulls leading scorer.

LOL @ Al being too good to come off the bench.

[uga2006]

Actually I'd rather have Smoove come off the bench. The thing is i'm sure he'll take it as an insult but I think it may actually help the team in the rebounding deapartment.

Zaza

Al

Marv

Joe

Bibby

Smoove will get his minutes like Manu does but if he took it as a motivator instead of an insult then it'd be great.

[mrhonline]

Some here are completely missing the point. Having one of Smith/Horford has nothing to do with who is better or if they are better than Zaza.

The big problem is the steep falloff when both are out of the game. When only 1 of them is in a game at a time the Hawks do well but when they are both out it is trouble.

Yes, there's a steep falloff when only one is in the game, but there's also a steep falloff when both are in the game. They don't play well together for long stretches because it puts the Hawks at a disadvantage on the defensive side of the ball (i.e., rebounding and size).

Also, I don't agree with your argument that guys are primarily moved to the bench because they need more shots. Teams who have multiple perimeter weapons will occasionally move one to the bench, but it doesn't always work (Detroit). It helps if the player has a team-first attitude (Manu), of course. I think this would be something more akin to what Utah did with Andrei Kirilenko.

Someone mentioned that Al would be better off the bench because he's more of an "energy guy." That couldn't be further from the truth. Al is a "glue guy," someone who gets you an occasional bucket on good efficiency, sets solid screens, rebounds well, gets the up-tempo game going with a good outlet pass, blocks an occasional shot, etc. We've all seen that he's better at the 4 than the 5.

The SF glut was solved by Olympiacos, but the Hawks do have a long-term dilemma with the PF glut. Eventually, one will have to go. For now, I'd like to see the Hawks give serious thought to bringing one guy off the bench. Based on the two players' skill sets and success with the "first unit," I think Horford would be the better starter. I can certainly understand someone disagreeing.

BTW, I tallied Horford's numbers with Smith out of the lineup this season. Exodus is right that Horford was inconsistent early, but overall his numbers are decent (and improving). I don't have the exact stats with me, but the per36 was something along the lines of 13/10/2 with solid (but not great) efficiency. I think that's legitimately comparable to Smith's 16/8/2 (I'm rounding up) with average efficiency.

Obviously, both players have to make some improvements. And, as we all know, if either one was a legit center, we wouldn't be having this discussion. (The Nuggets broadcasters were pointing out that Kenyon Martin is longer/taller than Horford. No one would ever suggest that Kenyon was a center).

[PureGreatness]

Al is simply too good to come off the bench, and Josh isn't mentally or emotionally stable enough to accept a diminished role. I think he is coming to the realization that after last year, he should've been well on his way to becoming an All-Star, yet he is drifting farther away from it. Coming off the bench would ignite him, and not in a good way. I also can't imagine more jumpers for Josh. Each J he shoots exponentially decreases our chances of winning.

stoped reading right there.

[exodus]

Yes, there's a steep falloff when only one is in the game, but there's also a steep falloff when both are in the game. They don't play well together for long stretches because it puts the Hawks at a disadvantage on the defensive side of the ball (i.e., rebounding and size).

Also, I don't agree with your argument that guys are primarily moved to the bench because they need more shots. Teams who have multiple perimeter weapons will occasionally move one to the bench, but it doesn't always work (Detroit). It helps if the player has a team-first attitude (Manu), of course. I think this would be something more akin to what Utah did with Andrei Kirilenko.

It is easier to get shots playing with bench players as opposed to all the starters. JJ and Bibby are going to take a lot of shots. If one of them is out it is easier for Smith/Horford to get shots.

Smith takes a lot of shots already. Some of them are forced. If he moves to the bench his shot attempts will go up most likely which isn't a good idea.

The fact that they don't play well together is probably due at least in part to Horford's inability to handle big post players. Therefore that leads to two reasons why Horford would be better coming off the bench;

1) he can get more shots

2) he will spend less time guarding starting centers

AK went from playing the 4 to the 3 where he was less effective so i am not seeing the parallel there.