Re-thinking Horford's value: Undeveloped offensive game hurts future

[exodus]

Defensive rebound percentage is an estimate of the percentage of available defensive rebounds a player grabbed while he was on the floor.

Of course if Horford played with one of the top 2 rebounders in the NBA there would be less rebounds to grab.

Conversely when you play next to Josh Smith it is a lot easier to get defensive rebounds.

[macdaddy]

My method is to watch the games and see how many times I say 'man Horford is getting killed on the glass what the hell is he doing' So far he is ranking very high using this method.

[mrhonline]

Ex, you're linking to the playoffs stats...

[exodus]

Ex, you're linking to the playoffs stats...

Funny because i hit regular season first then drp and it took me back to playoffs. Using regular season numbers he moves up to 17th.

http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/hollinger/s...mp;seasonType=2

Strange that you would ask why people aren't using a stat that we haven't heard of.

[pound4pound]

Al Horford is a GREAT Big man prospect. He improved drasticly from last year to this and I expect him to do the same next year. Just look at Smoove - two years in, he had no low post game, today he is backing people down like Adreian Dantley. Hell - even look at Marv adding 5 feet to his shot over one summer. Right now, he has a pretty good j from the elbow and his runner usually drops when he can get a step on his man.

To give up on Al now would be the equivelant of the Cavs letting Boozer go after two years in Cleveland. He might not improve one percent but there is far too much potential to just give up on him.

[Wretch]

What an awful coach! No good coach would ever do something like that. Well unless you count Phil Jackson with Dennis Rodman, or even last night's reference to how Mike Brown uses Varejao. :hush:

I hope nobody here thinks that if Al put in the work to become a better scorer that Woody wouldn't be thrilled to have that but what the Hawks really need out of Horford is defense, rebounding, and to be able to hit that often wide open jumper from the elbow. As Atlas has mentioned MANY times if we ran the PnR with him he could be a dangerous scorer because very few bigs could keep up with him and if the guard got switched onto him then Al would murder him.

Finally, let's not get too "emotional" about Al's value right now when he's clearly struggling with the ankleinjury. As (I believe it was Stockton) mentioned last night he hasn't looked the same since he hurt his ankle and whether it's a physical limitation or a lack of confidence in his ankle it's clearly an issue.

Anderson Varejao...a 2nd round project...is your arguement... Any coach would pray that a guy drafted after 15 or so could give you some production.

And Dennis Rodman? Good God man, he had been in the league for like a decade before he got to Chicago. Phil Jackson didn't turn him into a defensive dirty work player, this is what he evolved into.

Before he even stepped onto the NBA hardwood, Horford (who was a 3 pick and centerpiece for a 2 time national collegiate champion BTW) was given the role of "dirty work" player and had his offensive expectations SET.

Edited May 7, 2009 by Wretch

[mrhonline]

Strange that you would ask why people aren't using a stat that we haven't heard of.

The B-R one is similar to the ESPN one. Basically the same concept. I am a little surprised there's as big a difference in the rankings, to be honest. I always assumed they were almost the same stat.

B-R --> 100 * (DRB * (Tm MP / 5)) / (MP * (Tm DRB + Opp ORB))

ESPN --> (100 x (Rebounds x Team Minutes)) divided by [Player Minutes x (Team Rebounds + Opponent Rebounds)]

Can someone figure out the difference in those two formulas??? I'm still at work...

[mrhonline]

Oh, I see what the problem is.

They are the same stat. B-R just listed him incorrectly as 8th.

Among players averaging 20+ minutes/game, he's 15th. That lines up with ESPN's ranking. By the way, only Biedrins and Love are better and younger.

[exodus]

Oh, I see what the problem is.

They are the same stat. B-R just listed him incorrectly as 8th.

Among players averaging 20+ minutes/game, he's 15th. That lines up with ESPN's ranking. By the way, only Biedrins and Love are better and younger.

I thought they looked similar.

The bottom line is that right now Horford is a role player playing out of position, which hurts his man D. He is a good rebounder and good team defender but that's it. I look at him as being similar to Marvin. Both have no star potential but both are good role players. The problem is that we need more star power.

[mrhonline]

I don't necessarily disagree, Ex. I also don't think that means you have to get rid of either player.