Sekou's new blog - puts in link to Hawksquawk

[The MoonKnight]

I like what I have heard about him.

It seems like Denver is trying to sell their picks every other year so that makes sense.

As I mentioned in an earlier post, I think Douglas will climb the draft boards into the first round and would fit in here very nicely. He plays very aggressive D and scores in a myriad of ways. He is a decent passer but could not show off any point guard skills because FSU needed heavy points from him to win games. While a hunch can can be terribly wrong, IMO this guy will be a surprise impact player from the draft.

[Diesel]

I agree with Diesel and don't see the "it" factor either. I see the great scoring ability in college, but I also see the sloppiness and poor defense. I think he'll be even more streaky in the NBA.

I'm not sold on him as a star yet. I have no problem taking him at #19, of course, but he's got some growing to do in a number of areas before he becomes a star.

These guys are looking at these short players and talking about star potential and "it" factors...

You have to be kidding me. IF you're going to be short and make it in this league, you will have to be a really special PG in the right situation. Let's go down the list shall we...

I really like Stefan Curry but... Only because his old man played the game and he is quite the shooter. DO I think he can get his shot off against Pros? Hell NO. DO I think he's strong enough to make it as is right now? Hell no.

Lawson and Flynn are interesting dudes, but who are they defending? What PG in the league won't post them up or run right by them?

When I have watched Flynn this year, I saw a guy who worked hard and who could get a step and dunk on the competition and was really impressive for a little guy. However, there's a big difference between AJ Price and Delonte West. Delonte West is going to take Flynn in to the low post and abuse him.

Aside from Flynn's defense, what about his shooting? He was a low 30s from 3 in college. That doesn't translate into special pro. When teams cut off the lane and isolate him outside with the ball, what's he going to do?

Now let's talk about some guys playing now.

Nate Robinson. A freak of nature. The fastest guy on the court with the ball in his hand. Able to leap over 7 footers. Still, he may not get another good contract in the league.

Rondo. Rondo has hands bigger than Perkin's. Rondo has arms that drag the floor. He's a defensive demigod and a fast leaper. Did you see him DUnk on D Howard?

Cassell taught him to be a play maker.

Jameer Nelson. Nelson was the player of the year coming out of college. He's quick. He's smart with the ball. While his A/TO wasn't what it should have been coming out of ST. John... He had the ppg and the FG%, 3Pt% to back him up.

Now if you want "it" factor...

Go no farther than Teague. This is your "it" factor. He shoots, he scores, he leads, he has many Chris Paul qualities. Plus he shot 48% from the field and 46% from three. Teague will be a starter in this league before any other PG even Rubio.

[frosgrim]

For me, the simplest way of explaining it is to take the player with the best combination of high upside and low downside. Easier said than done but this is absolutely what you pay a GM and your scouting staff for, IMO.

BJ Mullens has a HUGE downside and a good upside. At some point he becomes the right pick on the board, but not in front of a player with a better ratio of upside/downside. It is not something where you always take the young player with the highest upside, nor is it the situation where you ignore upside and just draft the guy who can come in and fill a role today. There is no one size fits all approach - you draft the best prospect with the best combination of potential and low risk.

The point of listing some of the many All-Stars and starters that have been drafted #19 or later in recent years is to show that there are impact players coming out of every draft and that we should be putting ourselves in position to get those guys whenever possible. The idea that we should write off Tony Parker so we can take Speedy Claxton or discount Rashard Lewis so you can get a Morris Peterson doesn't make sense to me. If the risk/reward ratio leans that way, then make the call. As a GM, if you can't properly ID the best prospects you get fired. It is your job to ID the right upside/downside ratio for players and get the right prospects on your team.

You should never shoot for role players, though, unless there simply is nothing worth taking over them. In this draft, there will be a starting PG picked 19 or after, IMO. Find that player.

My way of thinkning of thise is as a fan, I don't expect a player taken at 19 to be a star. I expect him to make significant contributions to the club. I agree with your assessment for how a GM should look to draft a player.

My statements reflect my expectation as a fan that whomever the Hawks pick at 19 will end up as a role player. That is, my expectations for the player are not as high as they are for Marvin, Horford, and Acie.

[coachx]

These guys are looking at these short players and talking about star potential and "it" factors...

You have to be kidding me. IF you're going to be short and make it in this league, you will have to be a really special PG in the right situation. Let's go down the list shall we...

I really like Stefan Curry but... Only because his old man played the game and he is quite the shooter. DO I think he can get his shot off against Pros? Hell NO. DO I think he's strong enough to make it as is right now? Hell no.

Lawson and Flynn are interesting dudes, but who are they defending? What PG in the league won't post them up or run right by them?

When I have watched Flynn this year, I saw a guy who worked hard and who could get a step and dunk on the competition and was really impressive for a little guy. However, there's a big difference between AJ Price and Delonte West. Delonte West is going to take Flynn in to the low post and abuse him.

Aside from Flynn's defense, what about his shooting? He was a low 30s from 3 in college. That doesn't translate into special pro. When teams cut off the lane and isolate him outside with the ball, what's he going to do?

Now let's talk about some guys playing now.

Nate Robinson. A freak of nature. The fastest guy on the court with the ball in his hand. Able to leap over 7 footers. Still, he may not get another good contract in the league.

Rondo. Rondo has hands bigger than Perkin's. Rondo has arms that drag the floor. He's a defensive demigod and a fast leaper. Did you see him DUnk on D Howard?

Cassell taught him to be a play maker.

Jameer Nelson. Nelson was the player of the year coming out of college. He's quick. He's smart with the ball. While his A/TO wasn't what it should have been coming out of ST. John... He had the ppg and the FG%, 3Pt% to back him up.

Now if you want "it" factor...

Go no farther than Teague. This is your "it" factor. He shoots, he scores, he leads, he has many Chris Paul qualities. Plus he shot 48% from the field and 46% from three. Teague will be a starter in this league before any other PG even Rubio.

Teage has no PG attributes. Don't get me wrong, I do like him as a player.

I agree he has an "it" factor with his scoring ability. His ability to get to the rim may be comparable to Paul but not his floor vision or his PG intangibles. I see him as a Terry / Barbosa type of high scoring 6th man. Not a starting caliber PG. Teague would be lucky to ever average 5 apg in the NBA.

As far as NBA PGs posting up Flynn and Lawson. You use West as an example. West is a SG, Mo Williams is their PG. Is Mo Williams a post up option ? What about Sessions and Ridnour in Milwaulkee, or Jameer Nelson in Orlando, or Tony Parker, or Steve Nash, or Chris Paul, or TJ Ford, or Brooks, or Blake, or Chalmers, or Mike Bibby, or Conley, or Chris Duhon ?

Sure Chauncy Billups, Deron Williams, and Baron Davis will post them up but Lawson will also get them in foul trouble with his ability to penetrate off the dribble.

Its the little, quick guards that torch us. Lawson can stay in front of them and keep them out of the paint.

Keep Flip Murray and Acie Law on the team for when you need a bigger PG to take away the post ups.

Edited May 28, 2009 by coachx