Marvin Williams...current worth

[AHF]

I'm sure that Marvin will get less interest as a free agent than Wally Z.

And remember Marvin has "great quickness" and "a willingness to drive to the lane".

:newspaper:

Care to put a bet on the table for which guy gets the richer contract during the offseason? $20 to the Squawk for whoever gets the higher contract (average annual salary for term of whatever contract is signed)?

[MaceCase]

Care to put a bet on the table for which guy gets the richer contract during the offseason? $20 to the Squawk for whoever gets the higher contract (average annual salary for term of whatever contract is signed)?

I'll take that action but I'm really hoping Wally is our starting SF come next season per Diesel's request.

[AHF]

I'll take that action but I'm really hoping Wally is our starting SF come next season per Diesel's request.

Given your past posts, I am assuming you are not willing to bet on the side that Wally gets the bigger deal, though, right?

[MaceCase]

Given your past posts, I am assuming you are not willing to bet on the side that Wally gets the bigger deal, though, right?

Oh no I'm taking the sure money on this one. Conventional "wisdom" says that Wally is going to be quite the commodity this offseason. I'll even further the bet and say he's the 2nd SF off the market after Odom as teams will still question Artest's sanity and shooting mechanics.

[AHF]

Oh no I'm taking the sure money on this one. Conventional "wisdom" says that Wally is going to be quite the commodity this offseason. I'll even further the bet and say he's the 2nd SF off the market after Odom as teams will still question Artest's sanity and shooting mechanics.

Fair enough.

So we have:

MaCeCase pays $20 to the Hawksquawk if Wally Sczerbiak signs a contract this offseason that averages more per year of the deal than whatever deal Marvin Williams signs.

AHF pays $20 to the Hawksquawk if Marvin Williams signs a contract this offseason that averages more per year of the deal than whatever deal Wally Sczerbiak signs.

So if Wally signs a 5 year, 40 million dollar deal and Marvin signs a 3 year, 21 million dollar deal that is:

Wally 8M/year > Marvin 7M/year = MaCeCase wins bet

If Wally signs a 5 year, 30 million dollar deal and Marvin signs the qualifying offer that is:

Wally 6M/year < Marvin 6.35M/year = AHF wins bet

Done.

[coachx]

Fair enough.

So we have:

MaCeCase pays $20 to the Hawksquawk if Wally Sczerbiak signs a contract this offseason that averages more per year of the deal than whatever deal Marvin Williams signs.

Easy money for AHF !

Way to raise money for the squawk !

[MaceCase]

Fair enough.

So we have:

MaCeCase pays $20 to the Hawksquawk if Wally Sczerbiak signs a contract this offseason that averages more per year of the deal than whatever deal Marvin Williams signs.

AHF pays $20 to the Hawksquawk if Marvin Williams signs a contract this offseason that averages more per year of the deal than whatever deal Wally Sczerbiak signs.

So if Wally signs a 5 year, 40 million dollar deal and Marvin signs a 3 year, 21 million dollar deal that is:

Wally 8M/year > Marvin 7M/year = MaCeCase wins bet

If Wally signs a 5 year, 30 million dollar deal and Marvin signs the qualifying offer that is:

Wally 6M/year < Marvin 6.35M/year = AHF wins bet

Done.

I need a clearer way of denoting sarcasm on here but whatever in my quest to prove just how worthless Marvin is I don't mind pulling through on the bet. Of course in my opinion I feel that nary a dime will have to leave my pocket as Wally is in his prime and just looking to get out of that oppresive offensive system in Cleveland and show teams why they were more sad to see him leave 'Sota than KG.

[AHF]

One way to do sarcasm is to put the words in itallics so it tips people off. I figured you weren't serious after the first post, but the second made me think you were on the Diesel train.

If you want off that train (and out of the bet), just post here.

As for D, either way the offer still stands for something you are "sure" about!

[MaceCase]

One way to do sarcasm is to put the words in itallics so it tips people off. I figured you weren't serious after the first post, but the second made me think you were on the Diesel train.

If you want off that train (and out of the bet), just post here.

As for D, either way the offer still stands for something you are "sure" about!

Yea I don't want to be donating money to someone elses lost cause

[AHF]

Sounds good. How about it D?

[txsting]

The think I think people keep forgetting about Marvin, is that he's one of the few SFs that can also play the 4. Marvin is just a solid player all-around, and I think people take that for granted.

Amongst small forwards this year who played in at least 60 games, he was . . .

- 16th in scoring ( 13.9 )

- 14th in FG% ( .458 )

- 5th in rebounding ( 6.3 )

Plus he's a good FT shooter at over 80% and a decent, but not great 3-point shooter at 35.5%. And he's a decent, but not great on-the-ball defender. He's not a star, but he's a solid SF in this league.

I just think people have short memories, because of the playoffs.

Ariza better than Marvin? Nah. Ariza just gets a lot more coverage, because he plays with the Lakers. Ariza is a very nice defensive player, but offensively, Marvin is much more dangerous. Ariza barely shot over 30% from 3-point range during the regular season. As limited as people think Marvin is offensively, Ariza is even more limited. Ariza has been fantastic in the playoffs though, I'll give him that.

Put Marvin on the Cavs, and Marvin INSTANTLY becomes a 17 - 18 ppg scorer. No doubt in my mind about that. He'd be the guy that LeBron could throw the ball to on the perimeter, for him to knock down the shot. And he'd be the guy who can get out on the break, and finish a fast break. Most important, he'd be the 3rd, sometimes the 2nd scoring option . . a position he doesn't have at times with the Hawks.

On the Cavs, and with LeBron's unselfishness, Marvin could get his 13 - 14 shots a game, while getting to the line about 4 - 6 times a game.

Marvin is worth somewhere between an 8.5 - 9.5 mill a year deal. And somebody will give him that too.

Good post. I'll add to it - Marvin is the #13 SF in the league this year based on PER. I think he has enough upside to work his way to the lower reaches of the top 10. So I think that prices him significantly above the MLE area, but far from max dollars. If we're very lucky, we will resign him for 8M or less. But I'm concerned like you are about a bigger offer coming. I wonder who has cap space combined with a hole at SF? Haven't looked into that yet.

Bottom line is that I think we'll be better served by keeping Marvin unless there is a great package deal out there for him. I'd listen to any offers, and maybe propose a few of my own, but be happy at the end of the day to keep him as a solid and improving rotation player.

[txsting]

Good post. I'll add to it - Marvin is the #13 SF in the league this year based on PER. I think he has enough upside to work his way to the lower reaches of the top 10. So I think that prices him significantly above the MLE area, but far from max dollars. If we're very lucky, we will resign him for 8M or less. But I'm concerned like you are about a bigger offer coming. I wonder who has cap space combined with a hole at SF? Haven't looked into that yet.

Bottom line is that I think we'll be better served by keeping Marvin unless there is a great package deal out there for him. I'd listen to any offers, and maybe propose a few of my own, but be happy at the end of the day to keep him as a solid and improving rotation player.

Answering my own question: looks like we need to watch out for Miami and Portland, maybe Minnesota, who each have the ability and need to make a big offer for Marvin. That's not a very big market. With Marion, Odom, Artest, Hedo, and Wally in competition for the same money. It's really hard to say whether Marvin will get that big offer or not, but you have to concede it's a real possibility.

[mrhonline]

I'm hoping the Hawks develop Marvin into a Battier-type player.

A player who contributes in a number of ways to winning, none significantly outstanding, but all important.

[Diesel]

Care to put a bet on the table for which guy gets the richer contract during the offseason? $20 to the Squawk for whoever gets the higher contract (average annual salary for term of whatever contract is signed)?

I didn't say richer contract. I said Wally will draw more attention. Marvin has to be paid. That's why we're over a barrel. He has to be paid and more than likely at his extended price. We're not going to "Cut" Marvin. So obviously, he will get a "richer" contract because we have to pay him based on where he was drafted. However, the market won't jump up and down about Marvin being a free agent. More likely, Wally Z, will get a deal before Marvin.

Therefore, the question becomes... are you willing to beat that Marvin is offered a deal BEFORE Wally Z?

We can do the normal $20 to the squawk!

Edited June 1, 2009 by Diesel

[mrhonline]

Therefore, the question becomes... are you willing to beat that Marvin is offered a deal BEFORE Wally Z?

Why would we care who gets paid first? It's not like that has any relationship to determining the better player.

[Diesel]

Why would we care who gets paid first? It's not like that has any relationship to determining the better player.

Really?

You don't think that the better (perceived) players in FAcy gets signed quicker... or at least promised quicker?

So in other words, you're a GM with lots of Money... and Lebron, Wade, Bosh, and Kobe are FAs who are interested in good deals... and the first item on your agenda will be to sign Collison??

[AHF]

I didn't say richer contract. I said Wally will draw more attention. Marvin has to be paid. That's why we're over a barrel. He has to be paid and more than likely at his extended price. We're not going to "Cut" Marvin. So obviously, he will get a "richer" contract because we have to pay him based on where he was drafted. However, the market won't jump up and down about Marvin being a free agent. More likely, Wally Z, will get a deal before Marvin.

Therefore, the question becomes... are you willing to beat that Marvin is offered a deal BEFORE Wally Z?

We can do the normal $20 to the squawk!

I am not stupid enough to bet that a restricted free agent gets an offer that is reported in the press before an unrestricted free agent. The incentive for a restricted free agent is to wait and see so you don't bid against yourself. With an unrestricted free agent, the incentive is to strike fast before someone else sweeps him up. So I agree that is a sucker's bet and I would be betting on the same side as you on that one.

I thought you were making the statement that teams would be more interested in Wally Sczerbiak the player over Marvin Williams the player irrespective of their free agent status.

If your goal was to say that Wally will get lower $$ offers more quickly than Marvin, I am with you 100%. He is a free agent that teams will see as a role player who can shoot and they will put money on the table quickly for him.

If you were saying that teams will value Wally anywhere near as much as Marvin the offers they make, then I strongly disagree with you. In that respect, you can cut the timetable out and see what they actually get offered and Marvin will get considerably more than Wally.

This is like James Posey and Josh Smith last summer. Of course, Posey got the first offer and signed weeks before Josh Smith. He was a less valued FA than Josh Smith but he was unrestricted and therefore moved more quickly.

[Diesel]

I am not stupid enough to bet that a restricted free agent gets an offer that is reported in the press before an unrestricted free agent. The incentive for a restricted free agent is to wait and see so you don't bid against yourself. With an unrestricted free agent, the incentive is to strike fast before someone else sweeps him up. So I agree that is a sucker's bet and I would be betting on the same side as you on that one.

I thought you were making the statement that teams would be more interested in Wally Sczerbiak the player over Marvin Williams the player irrespective of their free agent status.

If your goal was to say that Wally will get lower $$ offers more quickly than Marvin, I am with you 100%. He is a free agent that teams will see as a role player who can shoot and they will put money on the table quickly for him.

If you were saying that teams will value Wally anywhere near as much as Marvin the offers they make, then I strongly disagree with you. In that respect, you can cut the timetable out and see what they actually get offered and Marvin will get considerably more than Wally.

This is like James Posey and Josh Smith last summer. Of course, Posey got the first offer and signed weeks before Josh Smith. He was a less valued FA than Josh Smith but he was unrestricted and therefore moved more quickly.

When Dwight Howard or Chris Paul or Deron WIlliams were RFAs, how long did they have to wait before given an offer? Our cap situation wouldn't allow us to move on Smoove last summer. Not his RFA. We were up against the luxury tax and Sund was not willing to overpay Smoove. However, this offseason, we will have plenty of Millions of Dollars to spend. How important is Marvin? He's so important that with Money to spend, we will tell him to go out and find a deal for us to match. Name one sought after RFA that has ever been told that when his team had money??

[Diesel]

If your goal was to say that Wally will get lower $$ offers more quickly than Marvin, I am with you 100%. He is a free agent that teams will see as a role player who can shoot and they will put money on the table quickly for him.

If you were saying that teams will value Wally anywhere near as much as Marvin the offers they make, then I strongly disagree with you. In that respect, you can cut the timetable out and see what they actually get offered and Marvin will get considerably more than Wally.

Your deal was underhanded too. You know that Marvin cannot be paid less than the qualifying offer. However, the question is.... is he truly worth the qualifier when Wally Z and Trevor Ariza will get paid less? Those guys are not in a situation where they must be paid _________ amount. Marvin is. If Marvin were an UFA, there would not be a bidding war for him. Some team would sign him for less than 6 per.

[AHF]

Your deal was underhanded too. You know that Marvin cannot be paid less than the qualifying offer. However, the question is.... is he truly worth the qualifier when Wally Z and Trevor Ariza will get paid less? Those guys are not in a situation where they must be paid _________ amount. Marvin is. If Marvin were an UFA, there would not be a bidding war for him. Some team would sign him for less than 6 per.

If Marvin is worth less than the qualifying offer, no one has to offer it to him. I suspect he will get an offer from the Hawks for what they consider fair value. If he wants more than what the Hawks consider his market value, they will let him shop because they have the power to match. Just like with Josh Smith, who the Hawks loved.

In terms of what value the timing of offers says, then looks at Chillz. He didn't get a single offer from another team last offseason. Does that mean he is considered less valuable than James Jones? No.

Emeka Okafor didn't get an offer from another club, either. Both are a ton more valuable than James Jones. Guess who signed first? It wasn't the more valuable players. It was James Jones - because he was a low $$ perimeter shooting unrestricted free agent.

Bidding on restricted free agents is typically much slower. The speed at which they get offers is not a measure of value, it is a reflection of their contract status.