Smith vs Marion vs Kemp

[TheNorthCydeRises]

I'll keep saying this, until people get it. Smith either needs to either play like Shawn Kemp . . or Shawn Marion. These are the only 2 players in NBA history, who you can possibly compare him to in my eyes, especially from an athletic standpoint. But there are a lot of factors in why Marion and Kemp were successful, and why Smith may or may not get to their level.

The easiest thing to look at first, is how each player played in their best year.

Marion's best year ( 05 - 06 )

21.8 ppg . . 11.8 rpg ( 3.1 OFF ) . . 1.8 apg . . 2.0 bpg . . 1.7 spg - - - - 52.5 FG% ( 16.9 ATT ). . 80.9 FT% ( 3.7 ATT ) . . 33.1 3FG% ( 96 - 290 )

Kemp's best year ( 95 - 96 )

19.6 ppg . . 11.4 rpg ( 3.5 OFF ) . . 2.2 apg . . 1.2 spg . . 1.6bpg - - - - 56.1 FG% ( 11.9 ATT ) . . 74.2 FT % ( 8.4 ATT ) . . 41.7 3FG% ( 5 - 12 )

Smith's best year ( 07 -08 )

17.2 ppg . . 8.2 rpb ( 2.0 OFF ) . . 3.4 apg . . 1.5 spg . . 2.8 bpg - - - - 45.7 FG% ( 14.2 ATT ) . . 71.0 FT% ( 5.9 ATT ) . . 25.3 3FG% ( 25 - 99 )

Don't worry about the ppg number, because to me, that's irrevelant. It's all of the little things that might lead to him scoring or not scoring as much as he can, that's more relevant.

The biggest thing to me that has always stood out about Smith, is his lack of offensive rebounding while playing the 4. You'd think with his athleticism, that he could easily do what Kemp and Marion did on the boards, especially the offensive boards. You'd think that he could easily average 10 rpg, simply off of his freakish athleticism.

But rebounding is about DESIRE, not about the system. All of the great rebounders in this league, crashed the boards relentlessly, and got cheap buckets because of that, regardless of where they played. Offensive rebounds also mean extra possessions for your team.

With Marion, he took advantage of his speed, his desire to crash the boards, and was a decent enough outside shooter, to parlay that into an All-Star appearance in 05-06. With Kemp, he took advantage of his speed, and used his power and aggressiveness, to be an effective scorer, and to get to the FT line to get his points.

Smith needs to understand how he can best get his points. Until that happens, he'll be a player that drives people crazy on the offensive end. And he'll be a player that you can't fully trust on that end of the floor.

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The 2nd thing to look at, is to see the point guard that they played with during that same season:

- Steve Nash ( Marion ) - 10.5 apg ( #1 in the NBA )

- Gary Payton ( Kemp ) - 7.5 apg

- Joe Johnson ( Marion ) - 5.8 apg . . Mike Bibby - 6.5 apg

And this is where the ghost of Chris Paul looms like a Category 5 hurricane over this franchise. While there isn't a guarantee that Paul would be good enough to get this team to Championship level ( although we'd definitely be an Eastern Conference Finals contender ), a guy like Chris Paul could make a guy like Josh Smith look like a superstar at times, and possibly could get him to a few All-Star games.

In a guard-friendly offense like what Woody runs, Paul would have the ability to shoot or pass at his discretion. With his superior passing ability, and his willingness to pass, he could easily turn Smith into a devestating player on the fast break, and get him very easy looks within the half court offense, IF Smith is willing to mix it up a little more on the inside. The lobs that Bibby throws on occasion, would be a common occurence with Paul. Paul would also demand the ball, when Smith would want to take off by himself with the ball.

I really think people cannot underestimate what the lack of a good balanced PG here, would have on Smith's game, and on the perception of Woody having a "bad system". Bibby is too much of a gunner, to help Smith reach his potential.

If the Hawks could somehow get their hands on Andre Miller, you'd see Smith's offensive game improve, because Miller will get Smith a lot of easy shots. Either that, or if Acie Law improves dramatically over the summer, and shows he can be that passing PG that could improve Smith's game.

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The 3rd thing to look at, is the pace that each team played during that season. ( according to basketball-reference.com )

- Seattle - 93.8 ( 3rd in league )

- Phoenix - 95.8 ( 1st in league )

- Atlanta - 91.1 ( 18th in league )

This is where the "if Smith played in a different system" people, would speak up. Ironically, in 08 - 09, we played at an even slower pace ( 89.6 - 24th in league ), but won 10 more games.

People don't like where Smith is set up in Woody's offense, seeing that he does find himself on the outside a little too much. The argument is that his position in the offense, and the slower pace, contributes to his missuse with the Hawks.

But Smith's game is an enigma. One of the other things I've said for the past 2 years, is that Smith's game offensively, actually resembles Boris Diaw's ( believe it or not ). Both of those guys live off of driving to the hole, to get most of their points. Unfortunately, Diaw has also developed an outside shot, while Smith's shot seems to still be horrible.

So Smith would have to play in a system in which he could get some space to run the floor, or play with a great passing PG to get him easy looks on the inside. The obvious place for Smith to maximize his skills, would be to play in a place where the pace is high, or with a great PG.

- Golden St. 98.2 ( 1st ) . . the ideal system for Smith to play in

- NY Knicks 96.7 ( 2nd ) . . PG: Duhon

- Indiana 96.5 ( 3rd ) . . PG: Ford/Jack

- Phoenix 96.0 ( 4th ) . . PG: Nash

- Denver 94.3 ( 5th ) . . PG: Billups

- LA Lakers 94.3 ( 5th ) . . triangle offense

When people like Charles Barkley say that the decision may have to come down between JJ or Smoove, as to who we build around, I think this is what he is relating to. While JJ can function in a half-court system because of his array of skills, it's obvious that Smith would excel in an up-tempo system, mainly because of his atheticism.

And here's the other thing. I think Smith desires very much to be "the man" in Atlanta. The reason why he takes some of the shots he takes, is because he's not afraid to take those shots. That's actually a good quality for a player to have. The problem is, he thinks he's a much better shooter than what he really is.

On the flip side, guys like Marvin and Horford are more willing to play a complimentary role on the squad. This is not to say that Marvin and Horford are more important than Smith, because they're not, from an individual standpoint. Collectively though, they might be the type of guys you'd want to have around a JJ, if everything is still ran through him.

I don't agree with nbasuperstar much, but he may be dead on, with his comments in another thread.

"Getting a new coach will not change Smith, in order for Smith to reach his potential in Atlanta, we would have to build around him. That just isn't an option, it's best if he goes to a system that already is playing with that style of play."

So this is directly relating to what Barkley was referring to. Because Smith isn't as skilled as JJ in the halfcourt, the only way to maximize what he does, is to play fast. But the Hawks dramatically improved, when they played slower, and got players who can play around JJ.

As long as the offense is ran through JJ, Smith may never reach his potential. And it alludes back to the Marion/Kemp issue. As a hybrid 3/4, Marion shot respectively from the outside, but crashed the boards and got out on the break. As a hybrid 4/5, Kemp had enough post moves to be effective on the inside, and also crashed the boards and got out on the break.

Smith has a horrible shot and a limited post game. But he can get to the rim by beating slower 4's off the dribble. And he is a game-changing energy player at times with his dunks and blocked shots. So it's like I've always said . . he either needs to be a "souped-up" Shawn Marion, or play like Kemp. But to play like Marion, he'll have to play with energy ALL THE TIME . . and to play like Kemp, he'll have to be willing to mix it up on the inside ALL THE TIME.

To me though, the key for him is the rebounding. If he set a goal to be a 10+ rpg guy, and really improve his offensive rebounding, he could be the type of player that everyone wants him to be here in ATL. But that means that he would have to understand that he is a complimentary player, and not the go-to player.

The one remedy for this, would be to get a PG who could maximize the effectiveness of both JJ and Smith. But if we don't get that guy, we're still going to have to run most everything through JJ, which will limit what Smith can do ( unless he develops a post game ).

Edited June 18, 2009 by northcyde

[NJHAWK]

If you think that Josh Smith is going to start crashing the offensive boards with the effort of lets say ZaZa you are sadly mistaken. Josh Smith is just not as Diesel would say " aggressive enough". As for the defensive boards he thinks a "box out" is the style of hair his dad had when he is holding Smoove in his baby pictures.

Edited June 18, 2009 by NJHAWK

[Packfill]

I agree with most of what you stated.

This is why I consider BK's reign to be a failure - he had an extremely myopic view on how to build a team. As a result, I believe teh eams ceiling as currently constructed is not much higher then were they are right now - good enough to get to the playoffs but not good enough to be a real championship contender.

[TheNorthCydeRises]

If you think that Josh Smith is going to start crashing the offensive boards with the effort of lets say ZaZa you are sadly mistaken. Josh Smith is just not as Diesel would say " aggressive enough". As for the defensive boards he thinks a "box out" is the style of hair his dad had when he is holding Smoove in his baby pictures.

Oh I actually agree with you. Smoove is "soft", for the most part. And he doesn't box out. That is something that he can learn to do though. I'm never expecting him to develop a jumper, but he could become a much better rebounder, if he'd box people out and show the desire to get rebounds.

[T21]

Oh I actually agree with you. Smoove is "soft", for the most part. And he doesn't box out. That is something that he can learn to do though. I'm never expecting him to develop a jumper, but he could become a much better rebounder, if he'd box people out and show the desire to get rebounds.

I wouldn't call him "Soft"... But I understand that we all expect our PF to be more agressive and I agree with that!

Ever since I saw Smith for the first time, I drew comparisons between him and Kemp... and I still see that potential...

Smoove is never going to be prototypical PF from 70',80',90' (Lucas, Oakley...) and we don't expect that from him...

But there are certain aspects of the game (team concept) that he'll have to improve, like setting solid picks, boxing out (being more agressive), basically be willing to make sacrifices for the team! He's still very young, so I'll give him credit... I believe he'll start making better choices and he'll get there!

Individually, offensively, Smoove has to perfect one or two moves that he can utilize anytime during the game and make it automatic! One of those moves definitely has to be a mid-range jumper! If he could prove that he could constantly make that shot, he would be near-impossible to guard... Remember that Kemp also added that shot to his repertoire and that took his game to another level...

[Diesel]

I would love to see Smoove turn into a Kemp like player, but he doesn't have it in him. Mindset is not there to be Kemp.

However, one guy we have to add to your list (that I believe fits better than the other two)... is

Larry D. Nance.

Smoove could = Nance if Smoove learned what Nance knew. Nance knew that you don't have to be able to hit a three pointer to be effective. Smoove and Nance both have the serious athleticism. Smoove and Nance both had good timing on the shot block. Smoove and Nance both could shoot in the midrange but not well. At Clemson, they taught Nance to use his size to take the ball to the hole. Nobody teaches that any more so we're watching a generation of Punk players and a league dominated by Gaurds who take the ball to the hole. The difference between Nance and Kemp is that Kemp was a bull. Kemp ran pick and roll with Payton and he always finished. Nance like Smoove was a fineese guy who could take it to the hole.

[Johnnybravo4]

It is also hard to get offensive boards because the offense is designed to have him at the perimeter like a SF. Even superman ain't coming from the 3 pt line to crash the boards.

[atlien]

As always, really well done North.

Ive been saying for years that one of the most underrated parts of the botched Marvin/Paul pick is the effect on Smoove's career. Paul to Smoove wouldve been a lethal combination and wouldve propelled Smoove to that "elite" level (he wouldve made 2 All Star games, and David West none).

I agree that one thing that would really help Smoove (and our team in general) would be an up-tempo pg that pushes the pace. I like the idea of a Monta Ellis type because a) he can create a lot of offense, b) he fits next to JJ and c) he would push the tempo. I dont actually think we can get Ellis, but that's the prototype for me.

[Diesel]

As always, really well done North.

Ive been saying for years that one of the most underrated parts of the botched Marvin/Paul pick is the effect on Smoove's career. Paul to Smoove wouldve been a lethal combination and wouldve propelled Smoove to that "elite" level (he wouldve made 2 All Star games, and David West none).

I agree that one thing that would really help Smoove (and our team in general) would be an up-tempo pg that pushes the pace. I like the idea of a Monta Ellis type because a) he can create a lot of offense, b) he fits next to JJ and c) he would push the tempo. I dont actually think we can get Ellis, but that's the prototype for me.

I agree about Chris Paul...

However, I don't think Ellis is a creator. Not in the sense that he makes others better. Ellis benefited by being able to share time with guys like D Fish and Baron Davis. Like him or not, Baron Davis is a real Deal PG who can run the uptempo. He'd be a good player for this team if he wasn't injured so much. Ellis is another OG. Having him would mean that JJ would still control the offense which doesn't make a lot of sense to me. Still, having him would add a better than Flip player to the squad who could score at will. But a PG... He's not that.

[atlien]

I agree Diesel, Ellis isnt really a creator. But, next to JJ (who averages 6 assists a game and has the ball a lot), he works.

More than anything, I just finally want a pg who will push the tempo some. Ellis would do that. So would Baron.

[Wurider05]

You are right D. These punk players of today fall in love with jumpshooting and they don't like contact. Smoove should be in the top five in rebounding

[Diesel]

You are right D. These punk players of today fall in love with jumpshooting and they don't like contact. Smoove should be in the top five in rebounding

I think as fans, the most frustrating part of watching Smoove is the fact that we see he has the skill set to go down the lane and finish like we're use to seeing Kemp and Nance do. The problem is that in order to be Kemp, you have to be able to have the mentality to go with the skillset. Kemp would go down the lane and would absorb the contact. I'm not trying to officially call Smoove a punk, but there's some punk in him. He shys away from contact. Especially since his injury.

This year, we got a ray of hope. Smoove had started to give up the three and to focus on scoring from the high post (which included) some driving down the lane. If Smoove can master that part of his offense and leave the three point line alone, Smoove will elevate himself into the top 10 of PFs.

Honestly, I don't think Bosh is that much better than Smoove. Amare neither. Both guys are weak defenders. However, both guys can score. And so far, both seems more coachable. Even though we give Smoove a hard time because he's a hothead... If you go by his statistics, he has improved in areas he needed to improve in. His FG% went up. His three point numbers have gone down (152 attems to 99 attempts to 87 attempts)...

I guess we have to wait and see what he has coming out of the summer. Maybe playing for the select team will give him a chance to work with a guy like Harris or Nelson or some point guard or coach who will tell Smoove that he needs to come off of that 3 pt line.

[KB21]

I think one thing that some do not realize about Josh Smith is that not only is he not a good shooter, he is actually a horrifically bad shooter. This doesn't take into account just three point shots. Josh Smith ranked dead least in the NBA in 2 point jump shot field goal percentage among players who took 100 shots. His 2 point jump shot field goal percentage was 32%.

The funny thing is, he actually took fewer jump shots this past season than he has in previous seasons, and only 10% of his shots were three point shots.

Part of the blame has to go to the system that has Josh playing on the perimeter and not so much in the post, but part of the blame is also on Josh for not moving around without the ball and slashing to the basket to get himself easy shots. Plus, Josh needs to make a bigger impact with offensive rebounds to creat easy scoring opportunities for himself.