5/90 million for JJ no way in hell.

[TheNorthCydeRises]

Um... No. In 2010 you have many options.

LeBron James

Dwyane Wade

Chris Bosh

Kobe Bryant

Dirk Nowitzki

Yao Ming

Paul Pierce

Ray Allen

Tracy McGrady

Michael Redd

Manu Ginobli

Steve Nash

Amare Stoudemire

Carlos Boozer

If it was any year to let someone go and try hard and get someone else next year would be the year.

Even if we renounce JJ's rights when he becomes a UFA, we're not going to have enough money to throw at any of those top tier guys.

- Completely forget about Lebron, Wade, Bosh, and Amare ( not enough money to sign them because they will all get max money or close to it )

- Kobe re-upped with the Lakers

- Yao may not ever play again

- T-Mac is a glass window

- Pierce and Dirk, to my knowledge, aren't FAs in 2010, unless they opt out

- Boozer wants near max money ( which we won't be able to do )

- Milwaukee will throw Redd a huge deal that we couldn't match

So at the end of the day, you're talking about only having a chance at Nash, Allen and Ginoboli . . . as JJ's replacement.

Nah . . . lock up JJ asap.

[gsuteke]

Even if we renounce JJ's rights when he becomes a UFA, we're not going to have enough money to throw at any of those top tier guys.

- Completely forget about Lebron, Wade, Bosh, and Amare ( not enough money to sign them because they will all get max money or close to it )

- Kobe re-upped with the Lakers

- Yao may not ever play again

- T-Mac is a glass window

- Pierce and Dirk, to my knowledge, aren't FAs in 2010, unless they opt out

- Boozer wants near max money ( which we won't be able to do )

- Milwaukee will throw Redd a huge deal that we couldn't match

So at the end of the day, you're talking about only having a chance at Nash, Allen and Ginoboli . . . as JJ's replacement.

Nah . . . lock up JJ asap.

allow me to add 1 point

None of those guys are coming here w/o Joe on the team.

[jy23]

:lol6:

Did woody play him like a hebrew slave? UH.......YES!!!!!!!!!

[jy23]

Um... No. In 2010 you have many options.

LeBron James

Dwyane Wade

Chris Bosh

Kobe Bryant

Dirk Nowitzki

Yao Ming

Paul Pierce

Ray Allen

Tracy McGrady

Michael Redd

Manu Ginobli

Steve Nash

Amare Stoudemire

Carlos Boozer

If it was any year to let someone go and try hard and get someone else next year would be the year.

And how many of those players do u really think would come to atlanta? And about 75% of that list is older than jj, i'd much rather take my chances with joe!

[gsuteke]

Did woody play him like a hebrew slave? UH.......YES!!!!!!!!!

Poor choice of words.

[buckeye242424]

And how many of those players do u really think would come to atlanta? And about 75% of that list is older than jj, i'd much rather take my chances with joe!

Age would factor in, good point. The window to get a championship, or in a few cases another championship, is closing. I don't see the trend were seeing so far this offseason stopping...guys ring chasing.

[mattlanta]

I'm a big fan of Joe Johnson, but I also acknowledge that he's overrated. I hear that he was injured last year during the playoffs and late season, but I don't know how much of that is true at all. But I think after the Boston playoff series, his stock skyrocketed and everyone starts overrating him like crazy. Quite frankly, he didn't do s*** for us in the playoffs last year, and he was not as clutch as he was the year before. I'd like to see Joe play with more intensity too.

[Gray Mule]

Let me say, "JJ is a very good player." He has meant a lot to the Atlanta Hawks

and he is our all star. Note: He is not an elected all star. Just appointed to the job.

Atlanta hasn't had an elected all star for years and years.

Now, where is all this money coming from? There is a limited amount available

for the Hawks to spend. The more one player wants / demands, the less there is

for everyone else. Sure, great players demand great money. Whose salary are

you willing to reduce to come up with all this money?

Not many players are willing to do as Bibby just did, take the big pay cut to stay

with any team and especially the Atlanta Hawks. That's why I am now a much

bigger Bibby fan!

Everyone acts like JJ is the only thing the Hawks have. Woody plays him that way.

Refusing to rest him. Can't let these other players on the floor without JJ being

out there. Apparently, all of us have fell under this same hypnotic spell. Without

Joe Johnson out there on the floor all the time, we are doomed.

This, I feel, is an insult to all the other Hawks. "Without JJ, you are nothing."

Now, with a limited amount of money available, every one of you are going to be

asked to take a substantial pay cut and it will be given to JJ so that we can

keep him here.

Or, perhaps we can trade one of our other starters for future draft picks and give

his money to JJ so that we can keep our all star. Who?

:no-no:

Think about this. The old man sounds crazy, you say. But, answer me this. Where

does all this money come from? Atlanta ownership doesn't have the deep pockets

that some teams owners has. The more we pay JJ, the less there is left to pay

all the other players on the team.

I hope we keep JJ. He's a great player. But, can we afford to cut others salaries

or lose other players just to pay him?

:sad:

[gsuteke]

Mule - how much lost gate and concessions revenue will the Hawks have to asborb if they come across as cheap and let Joe Johnson walk over 2 million a year?

There's no money tree in the ASG's office but they have to spend money to make it.

[Gray Mule]

Mule - how much lost gate and concessions revenue will the Hawks have to asborb if they come across as cheap and let Joe Johnson walk over 2 million a year?

There's no money tree in the ASG's office but they have to spend money to make it.

We're talking about $18 Million per year for 5 years. That's 5/90.

That's lots of hot dogs and drinks. And, every year for five years.

Sure, people come to watch JJ play. He is the all star of the Hawks. I don't want to lose

him. We need him. The point being, he's not the only Hawk. He can't do it alone, can he?

Every player deserves a reasonable pay check.

[Traceman]

We're talking about $18 Million per year for 5 years. That's 5/90.

That's lots of hot dogs and drinks. And, every year for five years.

Sure, people come to watch JJ play. He is the all star of the Hawks. I don't want to lose

him. We need him. The point being, he's not the only Hawk. He can't do it alone, can he?

Every player deserves a reasonable pay check.

The reality is that the next payday for JJ will be his last big one and he is going to try to maximize his money. Seeing as how several teams out there will have enough caproom to sign a max FA outright, I think we would be smart to try to extend JJ before we risk making him mad as Phoenix did. I'd try to get him at 5 yrs/$80M and go as high as 5 yrs/$90M to keep him.

[TheFormerJJBacker]

I'm looking at the "extend Joe or not extend Joe?" question with my eyes on what else is available in 2010 - like many of you in this thread. I guess I look at the decision of "should we give him 5 yrs/$80-$90 million?" based on how many other guys are realistic options that could slide in with a similar contract and be worth it. I'll strikethrough those I don't feel we would want to give "big money" (max or close to max money) to as FA's. Hopefully by the end of this we have a good idea of "if not Joe, then who?" type stuff. Here's my breakdown:

At first glance - you've got a lot of names... but after further review, there might not actually be too many to choose from that make sense to give long contracts to for big money. I trimmed up the list a bit to try and include only those that would be deemed "pretty good" by most folks' standards. I skipped a lot of folks mainly because I didn't want this to take forever.

Next Summer here's what we're looking at - Note: I took the liberty to include age at beginning of 2010 season, too... as that seems like an important thing to note when you're talking about four or five year deals and a lot of money:

RFA:

(assuming no extensions are signed by November 2009 for these folks)

LaMarcus Aldridge (25)

Rudy Gay (24)

Rajon Rondo (24)

Brandon Roy (26)

Tyrus Thomas (24)

Comments: Clearly, if Boston, Memphis or Portland drop the ball this offseason on extensions for Rondo, Gay or Roy - we could get into a bidding war next summer for a RFA (much like we capitalized on the Suns mistake of not extending Joe Johnson prior to the 04/05 season). Roy would clearly be a massive catch (and if you read the rumors - his relationship with GM Kevin Pritchard is a bit icey). Rondo would be great too, but we have Bibby, Crawford and Teague - so another PG would seem a bit redundant (thus the strikethrough). Gay would be nice (not as nice as Roy) - but is Rudy Gay an improvement over Joe Johnson? He's younger - but I don't think over the next four to five years he'll be better.

In addition, and as always, the problem with RFA's are two-fold at this point - any of these guys could sign extensions this summer (thus crossing them off this list); and you have to play the whole wait seven days to see if home team matches... which next summer will be a really risky thing to do as a lot of the bigger names will likely sign quickly. You don't want your money tied up in a offer that might net you nothing. Aldridge and Thomas are nice (particularly Aldridge), but I'm not sure I'm giving them "Joe Money" to come here; nor am I sure that I think them coming here would be adequate replacement for Joe's loss.

Final Say: Only real option that I see worth the risk would be BRoy. He's a stud. Young. Leader. All-Star. Although his agent is talking max deal (at over $20 million per).

UFA/ETO/P or T Option:

Ray Allen (35)

Kelenna Azubuike (26)

Chris Bosh (26)

Carlos Boozer (28 - but would turn 29 during first month of 2010 season)

Marcus Camby (36)

Tyson Chandler (28)

T.J. Ford (27)

Manu Ginobili (33)

Al Harrington (30)

Josh Howard (30)

Larry Hughes (31)

Zydrunas Ilgauskas (35)

LeBron James (25)

Richard Jefferson (30)

Joe Johnson (29)

Kenyon Martin (32)

Tracy McGrady (31)

Yao Ming (30)

Dirk Nowitzki (32)

Jermaine O'Neal (32)

Shaquille O'Neal (38)

Paul Pierce (33)

Michael Redd (31)

John Salmons (30)

Peja Stojakovic (33)

Amare Stoudemire (27 - will turn 28 two weeks into 2010 season)

Dwyane Wade (28)

Comments: Right off the bat you can cross a few names off this list for either age reasons (Ray Allen, Manu Ginobili, Marcus Camby, Zydrunas Ilgauskas, Shaquille O'Neal) or injury concerns (Manu Ginobili, Kenyon Martin, Tracy McGrady, Yao Ming, Jermaine O'Neal, Peja Stojakovic). The next group of people crossed off the list just honestly aren't seen as being on that "All-Star" level that the big money would demand. This list contains nice players - but nobody you're giving over $10 - $12 million per season:

Azubuike

Chandler

Ford

Harrington

Hughes (who I like to include in all JJ discussions because the Cavs signed him to the same deal as JJ got in 05... same years... same money - the best example I can think of to support the mantra of "market value determines your worth")

Jefferson (who's very close to being on the next list because I look at his game very similarly to that of Josh Howard's)

Salmons

That leaves ten guys remaining in the "UFA/ETO/P or T Option" list. Of that ten - only six will be under 30 years old when the 2010 season starts - LeBron, Bosh, Amare, DWade, Boozer and Joe. Let's start with the over 30's:

Paul Pierce (33) - Has ETO for 2010. I'm thinking with Sheed and a healthy KG, the Celtics make a run in 2009/2010. With KG and Sheed on board for a few more years, I don't really see PP exercising his ETO next summer. He'll likely do like Kobe did this summer and sign some 2-3 year extension to stay Green. I'm crossing him off as an option.

Dirk Nowitzki (32) - Like PP, has ETO for 2010. Cuban loves the dude - and he loves Cuban. Dirk isn't going anywhere next summer - and we all know it. I'm crossing him off the list.

Michael Redd (31) - Like Pierce and Dirk, has ETO for 2010. He's a vet, and I easily could have put him in the "injury concerns" group (he's missed almost 30 games a season over the last three seasons). I figure he actually might opt to use his ETO and become a FA in 2010 and try and sign on with a stacked team and simply be "the shooter" in a championship run. For us as "the guy" that we'd bring in? I'm not real fond of that. He's three years older than Joe; not as versatile as Joe (in terms of ball handling, distributor role, rebounding, defense, etc.); and despite his rep as this amazing shooter from 3 - his %'s over the past three years (38.2%, 36.2%, 36.6%) aren't much different from Joe's (38.1%, 38.1%, 36.0%). I don't think there's much argument to bring in a guy three years older than Joe that has never been a part of a playoff series win (in fact his playoff record is 4-12 over three playoff appearances), who can't handle the ball as well, pass as well, rebound as well, defend as well as Joe, nor shoot better from deep than Joe... to replace Joe... for "big money." I'm crossing Redd off this list.

Josh Howard (30) - Howard actually has a Team Option for 2010. This makes him the most interesting guy on the UFA that will be 30+. His salary for 2010 (should Dallas pick up his option) would be $11,835,000. Cuban typically doesn't shy away from spending money, but with Dirk on the books for $21.5 million, Dampier on for $13 million (expiring deal), Jet Terry on for $10.65 million, Shawn Marion on for $8ish million - the Mavs are already over $53 million in salary for the 2010/2011 season. They'll be over the projected cap - but I'm not sure what the Luxury Tax threshold will be at that time. Simply put - it might be tough for the Mavs to hold onto Howard without paying the tax (unless Dirk restructures things, or they move some things around). That brings us to the next question - if the Mavs let Howard go and don't exercise their team option - do you want J-HO? Over his career he averages missing 15 or so games a year. He's an 18-19 and 5-type guy. He's not a great shooter, ball-handler, nor passer. He does have some serious swag, and he's a pretty solid defender. He's a little over a year older than JJ. I have a tough time saying I'd see Howard as an improvement over JJ. He's definitely more emotional (which many on this board confuse with being synonymous to effort) than JJ... and he says stupid things on youtube at AI's softball games... and he talks about weed. I'm crossing him off the list because I don't think acquiring him and losing JJ is a positive move for the club. I'm not sure how many can really argue.

And then there were six....

I'm going to deal with LeBron and DWade first - because they're the same answer. They're either going to stay where they're at (Cleveland and Miami) or go play in a big market (LA or NY/Brooklyn). Neither are coming here. Both would be upgrades over Joe Johnson... hands down. But neither are options. I'm bolding them... but I'm giving them a strikethrough because they're simply not realistic... at all.

And now there are four - Bosh, Amare, Boozer and Joe.

Boozer (28) - I'm crossing him off because it seems as if he may get dealt this summer... and I find it hard to believe that if he were to be dealt - an extension wouldn't be in place. Let's say that he actually becomes a free agent next summer... where's he slide in? Horf, Z, Josh, Marv (possibly) already occupy the 4's and 5's. Boozer's a PF that can play Center if need be (much like Horf) so I guess it works - so I guess we could go with Horf and Booz at the 4/5 and put Smoov at the 3. I'm open for it. I guess I wonder if a Bibby/J-Crawf/Smoov/Horf/Booz line-up is that much better than a Bibby/J-Crawf/JJ/JSmoov/Horf lineup. I guess we call Boozer a "push?" Of note: Boozer is averaging only playing 55 games a year over his five years in Utah. I dunno - I think I'd rather keep JJ - they're pretty much the same age... and Booz did double-cross a blind man. I'll bold him though for the sake of argument.

Amare (27) - First off - he had another eye surgery today. Secondly - microfracture. Thirdly - he and his agent are already talking max deal for his extension - so if you want him you're looking at 5 years and over $100 million. Doesn't like D. Doesn't like getting dirty. Not exactly a positive locker room influence. Does not want to play center (and has been chirping about it again already this offseason). He's definitely a beast when things are going well. I'm striking through because he'll likely cost more than Joe, be a pain in the *ss, and he has bad knees and an eye issue that's never going to be right. I'm passing. Others may argue they want the guy... but I beg you (I'm in Phoenix, remember) - you don't want this guy. Nonetheless - I bolded him for argument's sake.

Bosh (26) - Pretty clear cut - I think people would be fine if we lost JJ, but gained Bosh. He'd be a star in GA. He could go to Tech games. He's a top 20 player in the league. He'll play center. No arguments from me. The only problem? Latest words are he's pumped about the moves Toronto is making and Bryan Colangelo pretty much has made it his mission to keep Bosh happy and in Toronto. He could leave - but I honestly feel if he does leave Toronto it will be to go play with LeBron (in either Cleveland, New York or Brooklyn) or DWade (in Miami or New York). I do feel the ATL would be his 3rd choice if he leaves Toronto... I just don't think it'll get that far. I'm bolding him.. but I'm giving him a strikethrough for the same reasons as LeBron and DWade... essentially I just don't think it's happening.

Final Verdict?

Only players I'd lose Joe in order to sign in 2010:

BRoy (RFA)

LeBron (He'll either stay in Cleveland or go to New York or Brooklyn)

DWade (He'll either stay in Miami or go to New York)

Bosh (He'll either stay in Toronto or go sign wherever LeBron or DWade are playing)

Only players "on the cusp" or "an argument can be made to lose Joe to sign" in 2010:

Boozer (a little injury-prone, seems likely to get traded this summer and sign an extension somewhere else)

Amare (Bad eye, knees, attitude, and defense... and will likely want more money than we'd end up giving Joe to stay)

I spent more time on this than I originally planned - but I wanted to try and sift through everything and try to give an accurate picture of what next summer is going to look like. You may think giving Joe superstar money is absurd - but what other options are out there that are individually better than Joe?

The only alternative would be to let Joe leave and sign two players to replace him (think Detroit giving out essentially 5 years and $95 million for Ben Gordon and Charlie Villanueva). I think I'd rather have Joe over those two, as well.

There was an earlier post on here about "the grass is always greener" and when it comes to Joe's "re-up" - I think there's quite a bit of that going on.

And I keep hearing about Joe's failures in the playoffs -

The Miami series was frustrating for sure, but his Game 7 performance was fairly "clutch." Also - DWade shot 2% higher than Joe from the field in that series.

The Cleveland series was awful - but Joe did average essentially 20, 5 and 5 on a sprained ankle in games 3 and 4.

He was our best player in a series the prior year against the world champion Celtics (averaging 20, 4 and 4).

I think there tends to be more focus on the negatives than the positives when it comes to Joe (but it's been like that for years)

Anyhew - I'm out for the night.. just thought I'd throw in my .02

Edited July 11, 2009 by JJBacker

[MaceCase]

JJ......You just gave me a well thought out and concise primer for 2010 and it was awesome.

[TheFormerJJBacker]

No prob Crawf. Northcyde and I try to keep it honest up in the Squawk. (did the same damn thang years ago on the ESPN boards, too)

M

[bird_dirt]

I skipped a lot of folks mainly because I didn't want this to take forever.

lol, i'm glad this was the short list!

seriously, great analysis, no arguments from me on any of it. if not jj or roy, the only other option would be through a trade and draft. i don't think we could do a trade (nor have i even bothered to try to pick through any targets), but smoove and crawford would be the only players making enough money to use to bring back an option anywhere close to jj. that would leave us to draft a sg who might have all star potential, but that would be a big crap shot, plus no telling how long if ever they would take to get close to 18/4/4ish level.

[jy23]

That was a great analysis of the free agent crop for 2010, I think everyone keeps getting caught up in the media's coverage of how this is just going to be a crazy summer but i really don't think there's going to be as much movement as everyone thinks there's going to be. I agree that Roy is pretty much our only option to replace Joe and I'll take him hands down but there's really not another player who would come or that would be an upgrade over Joe

[TheNorthCydeRises]

JJBacker, that was easily one of the top 10 posts of the year so far. Excellent analysys. Explained everything clearly, without emotion.

It's like I said earlier in this thread. If we lose JJ, Jamal Crawford becomes the default "go-to-guy" on this team, because he'd be the only guy on the team who could create his own shot anytime he wanted. The offer we give JJ has to be high enough so that he'll feel appreciated here. If it isn't, he becomes a UFA, and we run the risk of the T-Wolves or Nets going all out to get him.

My fear though, is a Dominique-like trade next February of JJ, for some "up and coming" 2-guard, that will cost less per year than what JJ will re-sign for. Sund and the ASG may justify making the move to prevent losing JJ for nothing . . . just like Babcock did when he traded Nique.