Dolphins at Falcons discussion

[gsuteke]

I am witnessing extreme homerism in this thread.

That's what the NFL is all about though. I'll have my camera that takes crappy pictures but great videos at the game.

Youtube search "Elam beats Bears"

[jy23]

I'm interested to see what Gonzo has left in him. He's certainly extremely talented but he's no spring chicken. Miami had a hard time stopping him last year on a Chiefs team with very little help too. My hope is that it's going to take a few games for him to become a big part of the offense. I think the big key to the game might be the pressure that the Falcons get on Pennington since that's how the Ravens abused us in the playoffs. The plus for Miami is that the Falcons don't have a great secondary which should help Miami's crew of B rated receivers.

I'm still predicting Miami 17-14

Gonzo definately isn't a spring chicken anymore but hes still better than most of the tes in the league. When u add him to a team that really had NO te at all I think it really makes a diff. our front 7 r going to have to play great against the run for us to really have a chance at this game. Urn rite ab our cbs making or easy for your receivers, I just hope that the offense can put up enuf points to still come away with the w

[Admin]

I am witnessing extreme homerism in this thread.

That's what the NFL is all about though. I'll have my camera that takes crappy pictures but great videos at the game.

Youtube search "Elam beats Bears"

Where's the extreme homerism? Seems like both sides are speaking factually about their team. Of course being game 1 of the season both sides could be completely wrong about their team but based on last season and the off-season improvements we should all be accurate.

[AHF]

A bit of homer math here, too:

Dolfan quoting an anonymous mathematically challenged posterOn offense they ranked 14th in the league in passing with 3336 yardswith 61.1% completion. Miami ranked 10th in the league with 3632 yardsand 67.2% completion. Advantage Miami 20 yards a game.Atlanta ranked 2nd with rushing with 2443 yards but only 4.4 averageper carry (560 carries) while Miami ranked 11th with 1897 yards and a4.2 average per carry (448 carries) Advantage Atlanta by .2 yards per carry 7 yards per game.

First, why only look at yards per carry and ignore yards per passing attempt? Oh, right...that is bad for the Dolphins:

Atlanta 7.93 ypa

Miami 7.66 ypa

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/atl/2008.htm

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/mia/2008.htm

Now let's go to the difference in yards per game. The above states Miami averaged 20 yards per game more on passing. Actually, 18.5 yards per game over a 16 game schedule but that is close enough for purposes of this discussion.

Then they say that Atlanta rushed for 546 more yards but this amounts to 7 yards per game. Did we play a 78 game schedule last season?

546 yards over 16 games is a difference of 34 yards per game.

Just adding up the total passing yards and rushing yards listed above should have shown the poster than the Falcons had more total yards and were more efficient with each rush and each passing attempt.

Tsk, tsk Miami poster!

Edited September 3, 2009 by AHF

[Admin]

A bit of homer math here, too:

First, why only look at yards per carry and ignore yards per passing attempt? Oh, right...that is bad for the Dolphins:

Atlanta 7.93 ypa

Miami 7.66 ypa

http://www.pro-footb...ms/atl/2008.htm

http://www.pro-footb...ms/mia/2008.htm

Now let's go to the difference in yards per game. The above states Miami averaged 20 yards per game more on passing. Actually, 18.5 yards per game over a 16 game schedule but that is close enough for purposes of this discussion.

Then they say that Atlanta rushed for 546 more yards but this amounts to 7 yards per game. Did we play a 78 game schedule last season?

546 yards over 16 games is a difference of 34 yards per game.

Just adding up the total passing yards and rushing yards listed above should have shown the poster than the Falcons had more total yards and were more efficient with each rush and each passing attempt.

Tsk, tsk Miami poster!

Ha I didn't even look at the numbers but you're right. I guess when you have 10 times as many members as Hawksquawk you're also 10 times more likely to have mathematically challenged posters as well. The Falcons definitely have a great running game and whether the passing game is good or not won't matter since we are going to struggle defending the pass.

[Admin]

Oh and just so we're clear that this was indeed someone else posting these things and NOT ME ...

I think there is some good discussion in this thread and fair points about the Falcons

http://www.finheaven.com/forums/f2/whats-the-big-scare-about-atlanta-255068.html

And here is the other thread that I quoted from

http://www.finheaven.com/forums/f2/atlanta-sizing-up-the-competition-255013.html

Here's another thread that I just found

http://www.finheaven.com/forums/f2/falcons-defense-in-game-1-a-254887.html

[AHF]

Oh and just so we're clear that this was indeed someone else posting these things and NOT ME ...

I went back and added that to the post when I saw it looked like I was quoting you directly. I know you wouldn't try that kind of stuff!

[HawkItus]

Matt Ryan was only sacked 17 times last year. Not worried about the protection. The wildcat could be an issue, but we really can't assume anything because our defense has yet to have a game plan during this preseason. Should be a good contest by two quality teams.

[coachx]

I'm still predicting Miami 17-14

I will give Miami 17 but Atlanta breaks 30.

Final score

Atlanta 31 / Miami 17

Matt Ryan proves he is a better QB in year 2............."no pie in the sky"........no sophmore slump for a guy with his talents, intelligence, and multiple weapons combined with a solid O-Line with a mean streak. Both old men (Porter and Taylor) are dog tired my half time after repeatedly rushing Ryan at 110% effort only for Ryan to get rid of the ball right before they can get to him. When they play the run Clabo and Dahl will repeatedly maul them to the ground. Porter gets 2 roughing the passer penalties that helps assure the Falcons easy scores.

Falcons will do their best to cover the short and itermediate passing routes and try their best to force Pennington to under-throw a deep ball that is easily intercepted by a CB trailing Ginn, Jr. by 5 yards.

That is my crystal ball..........as long as Sam Baker is not injured at LT.

How is that for some homerism ?

Edited September 3, 2009 by coachx

[Admin]

I went back and added that to the post when I saw it looked like I was quoting you directly. I know you wouldn't try that kind of stuff!

I wasn't sure if that was sarcasm or not with the "Dolfan quoting an anonymous mathematically challenged poster" bit or not so I figured why not post the links to the threads. Plus you can view them (if you like) and see that not all of the posters on that site agree with the initial post. Quite a bit of good things being said about the Falcons in fact.

[Admin]

I will give Miami 17 but Atlanta breaks 30.

Final score

Atlanta 31 / Miami 17

Matt Ryan proves he is a better QB in year 2.............no sophmore slump for a guy with his talents and multiple weapons combined with a solid O-Line with a mean streak.

I tell you what, if Atlanta scores 30 points on the Dolphins I'm going to be pissed! So far this pre-season I believe we've given up 2 TDs and 3 FGs in 3 games combined.

I can't wait for this game to get here, got my NFL Sunday Ticket ready to go :)

[AHF]

I wasn't sure if that was sarcasm or not with the "Dolfan quoting an anonymous mathematically challenged poster" bit or not so I figured why not post the links to the threads. Plus you can view them (if you like) and see that not all of the posters on that site agree with the initial post. Quite a bit of good things being said about the Falcons in fact.

That wasn't intended as sarcasm at all. I figured you just posted several different posts from people that would generate some fun debate here without going to the source and checking the numbers.

[Admin]

Mike Smith talks with Brian Billick about defending the Wildcat.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xrri76y0Evg

[Admin]

After breaking down film of both teams, Scouts Inc. offers 10 things to watch in this week's Dolphins-Falcons matchup.

1. Miami needs to make Atlanta one-dimensional: Last year rookie QB Matt Ryan took the league by storm and it looks like he will have even more offensive weapons at his disposal in 2009. The passing game fed off a very strong ground game so if Miami can crowd the box and take away the threat of Michael Turner and Jerious Norwood it will make the play-action pass less threatening.

2. Expect the Dolphins to try to sustain long drives and control the clock: The longer the Dolphins are able to keep Atlanta's offense off the field the better chance they have of taking the home crowd out of the game. With all the weapons the Falcons have Miami needs to keep its defense rested and fresh. Look for Miami to run the ball as much as possible and go with the short, controlled passing game.

3. Miami will attack the edges with their ground game: The Dolphins have two excellent tackles in Jake Long and Vernon Carey and probably will send Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams on a lot of off-tackle plays in an attempt to play to their strength. Both ball carriers can be extremely difficult to bring down once they get to the open field.

4. Look for the Dolphins to keep to their base defense for most of the game: It is hard to commit extra defenders to either the run or the pass when playing the Falcons as they can hurt you from so many different directions. Expect the Dolphins to stress responsibility and staying at home on defense as they try to keep the Falcons from making any big plays.

5. Matchup to watch: Long vs. Atlanta RDE John Abraham: Abraham ended up third in the NFL with 16.5 sacks in 2008 and will be counted on to provide pressure off the edge again in 2009. He will be matched up against Long, who enjoyed an excellent rookie season in 2008. Miami QB Chad Pennington is not very elusive in the pocket and needs protection to give him the time to go through his progressions.

6. Atlanta will pound the ball with their powerful two-headed ground game: Turner and Norwood gave Atlanta one of the strongest ground games in the NFL in 2008 and will be counted on to be dominating again this year. Head coach Mike Smith and offensive coordinator Mike Mularkey are not apt to give up quickly if the ground game does not produce right out of the blocks. They know that eventually their backs will break some runs.

7. Expect the Falcons to use the ground game to spur the passing attack with an effective play-action fake: With the strong ground game Atlanta possesses they are able to freeze most secondaries with an effective play-action fake which opens up the passing game at all levels. With the addition of Tony Gonzalez at tight end it gives Ryan even more levels to look for effective receivers.

8. Atlanta needs to stop the Dolphins' ground game: The Falcons are apt to rely on their base front seven to contain Miami's ground game. The addition of rookie DT Peria Jerry, their first-round draft choice this past spring, gives the Falcons a quality run stopper who is athletic enough to make plays up and down the line of scrimmage.

9. Look for Atlanta to rotate a lot of defensive backs: With the late additions of cornerbacks Tye Hill and Brian Williams the Falcons feel as if they are getting strong in the secondary. These guys give them a lot of options for nickel backs as well as their dime packages. Quality cover corners mixed with a good pass rush can make it difficult for opponents to throw the ball effectively.

10. Matchup to watch: Turner vs. Miami LB Channing Crowder: Turner became Atlanta's workhorse ball carrier last year as he led the team with nearly 1,700 yards. He is a powerful running back who has the speed to take it all the way once he gets past the first level of defense. Crowder's job will be to stop Turner before he gets up a good head of steam.

PredictionMiami 20

Atlanta 24

[thecampster]

I'm interested to see what Gonzo has left in him. He's certainly extremely talented but he's no spring chicken. Miami had a hard time stopping him last year on a Chiefs team with very little help too. My hope is that it's going to take a few games for him to become a big part of the offense. I think the big key to the game might be the pressure that the Falcons get on Pennington since that's how the Ravens abused us in the playoffs. The plus for Miami is that the Falcons don't have a great secondary which should help Miami's crew of B rated receivers.

I'm still predicting Miami 17-14

This could easily be a 38-35 type of game. Atlanta will score on anyone...does not matter. Atlanta could get scored on by my son's high school team. There will be alot of these games for them this year.

[buckeye242424]

I'm interested to see what Gonzo has left in him. He's certainly extremely talented but he's no spring chicken. Miami had a hard time stopping him last year on a Chiefs team with very little help too. My hope is that it's going to take a few games for him to become a big part of the offense. I think the big key to the game might be the pressure that the Falcons get on Pennington since that's how the Ravens abused us in the playoffs. The plus for Miami is that the Falcons don't have a great secondary which should help Miami's crew of B rated receivers.

I'm still predicting Miami 17-14

I'm predicting Dolfan, that Ted Ginn, will finally live up to the Top 10 pick. Three years is finally enough to learn routes, learn the game. It's about time to show what that kid can do. He was as raw as it gets, but the most explosive player to come through OSU in a long time. I loved watching him play because it was a TD waiting to happen every down....I miss it.

[Admin]

I'm predicting Dolfan, that Ted Ginn, will finally live up to the Top 10 pick. Three years is finally enough to learn routes, learn the game. It's about time to show what that kid can do. He was as raw as it gets, but the most explosive player to come through OSU in a long time. I loved watching him play because it was a TD waiting to happen every down....I miss it.

I'm not sure that this will be Ginn's breakout year but it won't be his fault. The coaches have said that his route running is far and away better than it's ever been and he gets plenty of separation on every type of route but the problem is that unless Pennington has a running start he can't take advantage of Ginn's speed because he can't get the ball deep enough to him fast enough. Until Chad Henne gets under center we won't see what Ginn can really do. I'll tell you who has really impressed me so far is Brian Hartline and I definitely didn't expect that from him. He could end up being our #2 WR for the next several years opposite of Ginn so we'd have 2 OSU WR's being thrown to by a Michigan QB once Henne takes over.

[Admin]

This could easily be a 38-35 type of game. Atlanta will score on anyone...does not matter. Atlanta could get scored on by my son's high school team. There will be alot of these games for them this year.

I won't say that it can't happen but nothing would shock me more. #1 I don't believe Miami is capable of scoring that many points, or at the very least interested in scoring that much since we want to pound the ball and we don't get big plays. I don't see our defense giving up nearly that many points either but we'll see soon enough I suppose.

[buckeye242424]

I'm not sure that this will be Ginn's breakout year but it won't be his fault. The coaches have said that his route running is far and away better than it's ever been and he gets plenty of separation on every type of route but the problem is that unless Pennington has a running start he can't take advantage of Ginn's speed because he can't get the ball deep enough to him fast enough. Until Chad Henne gets under center we won't see what Ginn can really do. I'll tell you who has really impressed me so far is Brian Hartline and I definitely didn't expect that from him. He could end up being our #2 WR for the next several years opposite of Ginn so we'd have 2 OSU WR's being thrown to by a Michigan QB once Henne takes over.

Henne was 0-4 vs. the Buckeyes. At least he may throw to some guys that can catch.

Sorry, I had to get my jab in...USC is coming to my house and after the last 3 years of national exposure and failing....well...

[Admin]

Henne was 0-4 vs. the Buckeyes. At least he may throw to some guys that can catch.

Sorry, I had to get my jab in...USC is coming to my house and after the last 3 years of national exposure and failing....well...

He certainly didn't have much in the way of a running back or WR's to throw to at Michigan.

Hey I know how you feel, The U just got their revenge on the Semi-holes the other night in a classic game and I'm finally excited about college football again now that we're nearly back. I hope to see USC lose although I'm not an OSU fan either since we had our national title stolen years ago by them!