Who has the space to sign Joe next summer

[jerrywest]

http://www.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?f=23&t=924520

http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/news/story?id=4312837

In a memo announcing next season's salary cap and luxury-tax threshold, sent out shortly before the league's annual July moratorium on signings and trades was lifted at 12:01 a.m. Wednesday, NBA teams also received tentative projections from the league warning that the cap is estimated to drop to somewhere between $50.4 million and $53.6 million for the 2010-11 season.

For many free agents, the maximum salary will be set at 30% of the salary cap. For others the maximum salary will be 105% the FA's last year's salary.

This means to sign ONE max contract a team needs to be between 35,280,000 and 37,520,000 in salary.

To sign Lebron, Wade or Bosh a team needs to be between 33,831,093 and 37,031,093 in salary.

To sign Amare a team needs to be between 33,202,759 and 36,402,759 in salary.

The Bulls are at 32,421,096 for 6 players assuming Salmons opts out. That also isn't counting Tyrus Thomas' restricted free agency. 35,736,324 including 7 minimum salary place-holders. Their first round pick next year could add another 1.5-2.5 million. They must renounce Tyrus if they want a max FA. Their situation ultimately hinges on Salmons. If Salmons opts out they have cap room for a max free agent. If Salmons does not opt out then they are not players in FA.

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The Cavs cannot sign another max FA to go with Lebron. If Lebron resigned, the Cavs would be on the hook for 43,767,550 with 7 players under contract (I approximated Varajao's contract to 7 mil). Taking into account the 5 minimum salary place-holders, the Cavs are now at 46,135,570.

They have a couple options as far as trimming salary:

Declining Hickson's $1,528,920 option saves them 1,055,316

Cutting Delonte West saves another 3,526,396

This does not bring them close to max contract money however.

(Cutting Jackson saves at most 400,000)

They will have cap space for one contract a bit over the MLE.

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The Mavs aren't even close to cutting it and with the likely signing of Kidd, they aren't doing anything in FA next year. They do have Dampier's contract which will be an amazing trading piece considering the lowering luxury tax. It is possible that they could use Dampier's contract to facilitate a S&T for a FA.

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The Rockets

Assuming Ming does not opt out the Rockets salary is $33,107,592 with Lowry as a restricted FA. With the pending signing of Ariza (presumably for the full MLE*) their salary is 39,429,912 with 7 players under contract and Kyle Lowry as a restricted free agent. With 5 minimum salary place holders the Rockets are on the hook for 41,797,932.

Declining Landry saves 2,526,396 cutting their salary to 39,271,536.

Declining Hayes saves 1,630,396 cutting their salary to 40,167,536 with Landry and 37,641,140 without Landry.

None of that includes their 1st rounder next year or any other signings they may make. Getting to about 37.5 million this way would leave them with 5 players. (Yao, Ariza, Battier, Brooks, Dorsey)

(Cutting Dorsey would save at most 400,000)

*http://members.cox.net/lmcoon/salarycap.htm#Q19 - MLE listed at 5.854 X 1.08 for a 1 year raise = 6,322,320 as his 2010 salary

The Rockets can possibly sign one max FA if they work out a trade or two BUT the cost for them to do that makes it more likely that they will enter free agency with a few million less than max. They'd probably look to sign a Joe Johnson type and they'd probably look to use a S&T regardless of who they pursue.

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The Heat are at 29,205,393 with a resigned Wade (cheaper than cap hold) with 5 players under contract. Accounting for 7 minimum salary place-holders, 32,520,621. They will have room for another max free agent to pair with Wade and can even cut James Jones to save an additional 2,320,396. They shouldn't have any problems.

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*EDIT* - Clippers

With the Zach Randolph trade the Clippers now have significant 2010 cap room. With 7 players (including Griffin) under contract the Clippers are set at 36,304,054. Counting the 5 minimum salary place-holders their salary is at 38,672,074. Their pick next year will add another 1.5-3 million and they may also have Minnesota's pick as well (which would add another 1-2 million).

The point is that while they will have cap room, they will not likely be in the mix for max free agents without another trade of some sort. They still have a great chance to add to their young core.

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I'm going to hold off on doing the Twolves for now since they are a small market team and I don't think they will be able to entice any of the top FAs.

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The Knicks with 6 players amount to $26,712,805. Adding the 6 minimum salary place holders bumps that up to 29,554,429. They don't have a pick next year. This allows them to sign ONE max free agent next year and another free agent for a bit more than the MLE. They may still take on more 2010 money this year by signing Lee, Robinson, or some other FA.

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The Thunder are a young small market team and I'll wait to look at them although I think they could be in the mix for one of the top PFs next year depending on what they do this year.

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I'm going to wait on the Suns since Amare may be moved for long-term pieces still but as of now, if Amare opts out, they are on the hook for only about 27-30 million depending on what they decide to do with Alando Tucker and Jared Dudley.

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The Nets will have 10 players (Harris, Lopez, Lee, T Will, Yi, CDR, Dooling, Najera, & 2 2010 1st round draft picks) AND money to offer a max contract.

According to NetsForce's salary spreadsheet the Nets will have 33,681,296 committed (including projected salary for the 5th and 22nd picks). With 2 salary placeholders that amounts to $34,628,504.

The Nets can also cut Keyon Dooling to save another 2,854,396.

[Buzzard]

Appreciate the info! Thanks man....

Afterthought...I would not discount small market teams and/or non contenders when it comes to JJ. The guy bailed on a championship contender to come play for us. Would not suprise me one bit if he actually preferred a lower profile team to be honest...

Edited September 30, 2009 by Buzzard

[txsting]

Posts like this are why this is the best NBA board in the known universe. Cheers to you, jerrywest.

[AHF]

Very nicely done and informative. Thanks, jerrywest!

[coachx]

Too bad Schultz, of the AJC, doesn't know any of this.........and he is paid to write Hawks articles.

Good post JW !

[TheNorthCydeRises]

Great post Jerry. You've pretty much validated everything I've said all summer, with the actual numbers. To me, Lebron or Wade leaving their current team, is what is going to trigger chaos and a mini bidding war around the league. If they stay put, I like our chances to retain JJ.

New York, New Jersey and Minnesota are the main teams that I think will go that extra mile to get a JJ ( probably a little under a max contract ). Whomever goes after him, they [edit] may be willing [/edit] to give him more money in the first 4 years of this deal, than we will. It's those extra years we can give him, that may be the difference.

Edited October 1, 2009 by northcyde

[jy23]

Posts like this are why this is the best NBA board in the known universe. Cheers to you, jerrywest.

DITTO!!!!

[jerrywest]

1. If LeBron leaves Cleveland for New York, the Cavs will be so terrible that they wouldn opt to rebuild. No reason to be #11 team in the east with JJ. The Knicks won't have money to sign another max free agent. That takes out 2 teams from JJ bonanza.

2. I hope Lee plays great for NJ next year. NJ is loaded with underpaid all star level players in the hardest to fill positions - Center and point guards. With two lottery picks, this year and next, and Lee underpaid as well, they will become dynasty if they can land LeBron. Bosh or Amare fits in perfectly with them as well. I don't see them going after JJ.

[jerrywest]

3. Wade has every reason to want to go to Chicago. Miami has no hope. Bulls will waive every restricted free agent and cap holder to make room for Wade. Expect Joe Smith to go there for veteran minimum next year. May be Karl Malone will come out of retirement to play with them for minimum. Just kidding.

[MaceCase]

1. If LeBron leaves Cleveland for New York, the Cavs will be so terrible that they wouldn opt to rebuild. No reason to be #11 team in the east with JJ. The Knicks won't have money to sign another max free agent. That takes out 2 teams from JJ bonanza.

2. I hope Lee plays great for NJ next year. NJ is loaded with underpaid all star level players in the hardest to fill positions - Center and point guards. With two lottery picks, this year and next, and Lee underpaid as well, they will become dynasty if they can land LeBron. Bosh or Amare fits in perfectly with them as well. I don't see them going after JJ.

If the Nets miss out on Lebron they'd be better served going full press at Amar'e and Bosh, PFs to pair with Lopez. Besides that their move to Brooklyn can't happen soon enough, you guys don't know what a sacrifice it is catching a Hawks game at the craphole that is the "Izod" Center. TWill and Lee would preclude them from going all out on Joe given their potential and much cheaper asking price.

Can't discount Minny in my opinion, they would be the ultimate dark horse for Joe. Low key market, stud bigmen, possible stud PGs in Flynn and Rubio, capspace to pay him what he wants and still offer chance at a winning situation where he wouldn't be looked at as coattail rider.

Extra possibility could be the Clippers who I'm sure will be looking to make a splash in consecutive seasons to at least get a byline on the sports page with the Lakers. Could definitely see Joe as an upgrade at SF over the inefficient Al Thornton and Ricky Buckets.

[jerrywest]

Can't discount Minny in my opinion, they would be the ultimate dark horse for Joe. Low key market, stud bigmen, possible stud PGs in Flynn and Rubio, capspace to pay him what he wants and still offer chance at a winning situation where he wouldn't be looked at as coattail rider.

I agree. I wouldn't mind sign and trade for Rubio and fillers. Rubio being 6-4 will fit in great next to Teague.

[Buzzard]

3. Wade has every reason to want to go to Chicago. Miami has no hope. Bulls will waive every restricted free agent and cap holder to make room for Wade. Expect Joe Smith to go there for veteran minimum next year. May be Karl Malone will come out of retirement to play with them for minimum. Just kidding.

The media darlings want us to believe its a done deal...Wade to Chicago and Lebron to NY. The perfect NBA fairytale ending; I don't believe in fairytales lol

Cleveland gets to the finals with Shaq this year, I could see Lebron staying as long as Shaq stays. Lebron to NY is not anywhere near a guaranteed championship; but teaming with Shaq one more season may be as close as he ever gets to one...unless of course he teams with Derrick Rose

When is the last time Pat Riley flat out lost a unrestricted free agent superstar to another team? I cannot think of one.

Way to early to say anything definite...hell the Nets have as talented a young team as there is; and a new billionaire owner who may want to steal a headline from the Knicks just to get things moving in the right direction.

Only thing we know for sure is there's a lot of teams with money to sign one big dollar player and only five free agents who may warrant that money. Going to be a lot of posturing going on from now until the trade deadline...look out for the Clippers.

Edited October 1, 2009 by Buzzard

[AHF]

I agree. I wouldn't mind sign and trade for Rubio and fillers. Rubio being 6-4 will fit in great next to Teague.

Wow, would the D from that backcourt be terrible! I can see a Rubio/Teague PG rotation, but playiing next to eachother? Yikes.

[Buzzard]

Wow, would the D from that backcourt be terrible! I can see a Rubio/Teague PG rotation, but playiing next to eachother? Yikes.

If we lose JJ, a PG is not what we need unless he is all world and Rubio aint that.

[Buzzard]

Great post Jerry. You've pretty much validated everything I've said all summer, with the actual numbers. To me, Lebron or Wade leaving their current team, is what is going to trigger chaos and a mini bidding war around the league. If they stay put, I like our chances to retain JJ.

New York, New Jersey and Minnesota are the main teams that I think will go that extra mile to get a JJ ( probably a little under a max contract ). Whomever goes after him, they [edit] may be willing [/edit] to give him more money in the first 4 years of this deal, than we will. It's those extra years we can give him, that may be the difference.

I see it the other way around. If Wade and Lebron stay put; that leaves everyone bidding on the remaining big three of JJ, Bosh, and Boozer. And Chicago needs a true SG in a bad way IMO

[Buzzard]

1. If LeBron leaves Cleveland for New York, the Cavs will be so terrible that they wouldn opt to rebuild. No reason to be #11 team in the east with JJ. The Knicks won't have money to sign another max free agent. That takes out 2 teams from JJ bonanza.

2. I hope Lee plays great for NJ next year. NJ is loaded with underpaid all star level players in the hardest to fill positions - Center and point guards. With two lottery picks, this year and next, and Lee underpaid as well, they will become dynasty if they can land LeBron. Bosh or Amare fits in perfectly with them as well. I don't see them going after JJ.

NJ is a talented young team and to me the bigs always get the most attention. Weird in that everyone is pointing to Lebron and Wade; yet for my money the biggest needs of most teams would be filled with Bosh, Boozer (a good year is needed), and now David Lee.

Lee could end up being the biggest winner as far as dollars vs talent goes. He will get some looks and the Knicks may end up paying dearly for not signing him longterm...

Edited October 2, 2009 by Buzzard