Hollinger Hawks recap and projections

[bird_dirt]

this came out sept. 28th (espn insider), but i haven't seen this posted anywhere else yet, so i apologize if it has been already. john hollinger put out this pretty indepth 09-10 projection for the hawks, at least a little more than the generic blurbs i read elsewhere.

take it for what it's worth.

___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

2008-09 Recap

It wasn't a remarkable season, perhaps, but it was certainly an odd one. For starters, a Hawks team that appeared to have no bench whatsoever found itself carried by its second unit into an unlikely second-round playoff appearance. And for no apparent reason, Atlanta's offense somehow broke one of the most fundamental correlations in basketball.

HOLLINGER'S '08-09 STATS

W-L: 47-35 (Pythagorean W-L: 46-36

Offensive Efficiency: 106.6 (10th)

Defensive Efficiency: 104.6 (11th)

Pace Factor: 91.9 (24th)

Highest PER: Joe Johnson (18.26)

Let's tackle the second point first. There's a predictable relationship between free-throw attempts and turnovers -- teams with lots of one tend to accumulate lots of the other, too. The reason should be obvious: Arms that are close enough to hack an opponent often find the ball as well. Take last season, for instance. Of the 10 teams with the lowest turnover rate, six were also in the bottom 10 in free-throw rate; similarly, six of the high turnover teams were also in the top 10 in free-throw rate.

Somehow, the Hawks severed this relationship. It's strange that it would be them, since they weren't a particularly good offense in any other respect. Atlanta shot just below the league average from the field and was a poor offensive rebounding team. By all rights, they should have been a mediocre offensive team.

Instead, they finished 10th in offensive efficiency, thanks to one remarkable stat: They have the sixth-lowest turnover rate, with miscues on only 13.9 percent of their trips, but the ninth-highest free-throw rate, at .323 per field goal attempt.

FTA per TO: 2008-09 leaders

Team FTA/TO

Golden State .199

Atlanta .199

Denver .198

Utah .194

League average .176

* Min. 500 minutes

Atlanta was the league's only team to finish in the bottom 10 in turnover rate and the top ten in free-throw rate, as somehow the Hawks owned a unique ability to generate free throws without imperiling the ball. An easy way to look at this phenomenon is by looking at free-throw attempts per turnover (see chart), an area in which the Hawks ranked a close second to Golden State at 1.99 -- the league average was 1.76.

Individually, it's easily to see why. The biggest overachiever here was Marvin Williams, who averaged nearly four free-throw attempts for every turnover -- the highest rate in basketball, and more than double the league average. Zaza Pachulia (2.53) and Josh Smith (2.23) also had strong rates, but it was a team effort -- only Mike Bibby's mark was notably below the league average.

Free-throw attempts per turnover: 2008-09 individual leaders

Player Team FTA TO FTA/TO

Marvin Williams Atlanta 273 70 3.90

Hakim Warrick Memphis 372 98 3.82

Antawn Jamison Washington 454 125 3.62

Kevin Martin Sacramento 527 146 3.61

Chris Bosh Toronto 617 174 3.55

* Min. 500 minutes

Pachulia's strong number in this category was the second plank in the Hawks' unusual season. Heading into the year the second unit appeared to be a disaster zone. Pachulia had played horribly a year earlier, reserve guard Flip Murray was dumped by two different teams and Maurice Evans was the only other accomplished reserve.

Instead, the second unit carried the Hawks on many nights. Pachulia and Murray outperformed expectations, and the Hawks stayed healthy enough that they rarely had to venture deeper than eight men -- which is great news for a team that only had eight decent players. While several different Hawks missed time, it worked out that the injuries were rarely simultaneous, making it easier to fill in the gaps.

Murray set a career high in PER, and Pachulia raised his by over three points from the year before. As a result the two had the best plus-minus marks on the team, while the Hawks became one of the league's strongest second-quarter teams.

Defensively, the story was more mundane but no less pleasant. The Hawks had been an offense-first squad a year earlier after a midseason trade for Mike Bibby. But they improved to 11th in defensive efficiency last season, mostly as a result of improved effort and experience up and down the roster. Coach Mike Woodson, in his fifth season at the helm, also deserves some credit for keeping his message fresh with a crew that's been hearing his voice for quite a long time now.

In the end the Hawks won 47 games, and there was room for them to go higher -- Josh Smith had a disappointing season that saw him slump to 58.8 percent from the line, Joe Johnson had his second straight midseason funk that suppressed his overall numbers, and Williams missed 21 games and was useless in the playoffs due to a late-season wrist injury.

All told, it was a hugely successful and somewhat bizarre year that saw the Hawks, five years removed from a miserable 13-win campaign, finally become one of the league's respectable teams. Now the challenge is whether they can stay there.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Offseason Moves

It was an interesting offseason in Atlanta because so many of their players were free agents, but ultimately not much changed. The Hawks brought back the same cast, with only a few changes around the edges to improve the questionable depth situation. The one unfinished piece of business is an extension for Joe Johnson, who will be an unrestricted free agent after the season. That might be a tough negotiation; he makes nearly $15 million this year and probably isn't interested in a pay cut, but in the current market he's not worth that kind of money.

Re-signed Mike Bibby to a three-year, $18 million deal. This was a bit of a risk given Bibby's age -- he'll be 34 by the end of the deal -- but as well as he played last season he was going to command midlevel money from somebody. Since he's mostly a 3-point shooter he shouldn't decline too severely, though his defensive shortcomings could become increasingly acute.

Re-signed Marvin Williams to a five-year, $38 million deal. This was great value for the Hawks, as Williams is only 23 and is already one of the league's better two-way forwards. Incentives could take the value of the deal to $43 million, but in that case the Hawks won't mind. Given Williams' production, age, and continued improvement as a shooter, it's a good bet he'll provide substantial value at this price. Even if he doesn't improve at all from this date forward it's a reasonable contract.

Re-signed Zaza Pachulia to a four-year, $19 million deal. Pachulia re-signed for virtually identical money to his previous contract (four years, $16 million), a solid reward for his strong 2008-09 campaign. There isn't much upside here, but he played well in three of the previous four seasons in Atlanta. If he repeats that ratio the Hawks will have a solid return on their investment.

Signed Joe Smith to a one-year deal for the minimum. This was a great deal for the Hawks, and it's a sign of how far they have come that veterans are considering them among potential destinations. Smith fills the one major gap in their frontcourt depth picture -- a solid, jump-shooting 4 who could stretch defenses -- and provides some veteran wisdom to a young locker room.

Let Flip Murray leave, drafted Jeff Teague and Sergiy Gladyr. Teague was a solid choice with the 19th pick. Although listed as a point guard, he's more of a shooter and scorer who can play off the ball with the Hawks -- much as Bibby frequently does -- while the wings do the bulk of the ballhandling. Letting Murray leave was a tough call, but it was unlikely he would play as well as he did a year ago, and the Hawks were able to cover his spot at limited expense with this move and the next one below. As for Gladyr, he's a 19-year-old Ukrainian wing who was a second-round stash pick. He'll play in Spain this year and will likely stay in Europe a few more years to develop.

Traded Acie Law and Speedy Claxton to Golden State for Jamal Crawford. I'm not a big fan of Crawford; in fact, I think he might be the most overrated player in the league. That said, you can't beat this price. Atlanta got him for two players who weren't going to play, and while taking on the $10 million obligation to Crawford a year from now is unpleasant, Atlanta has managed its cap situation well enough that it shouldn't put them into the luxury tax.

Signed Jason Collins to a one-year deal for the minimum. This was a roster-filler move, but it will help the Hawks deal with some of the league's bigger front lines. Among Atlanta's rotation players only Pachulia is big enough to handle behemoth centers in the Howard-Shaq-Yao mold, but Collins has defended such players very well over the course of his career. He's a horrific offensive player and is unlikely to play much otherwise, but should be useful in those specific matchups.

Left Josh Childress in Europe. The Hawks still owned Childress' rights as a restricted free agent, and other teams showed interest in sign-and-trade propositions, but ultimately Atlanta couldn't find a workable deal. They'll own his rights again next summer, when Childress has another out in his contract in Greece and can again try to make a move to the NBA.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Biggest Strength: Frontcourt Mobility

The reason the Hawks' defensive approach works is that they have three 6-foot-9 frontcourt players who are quick enough to switch every screen and cover opposing guards. Al Horford, Josh Smith and Marvin Williams all are comfortable picking up dribblers as they turn the corner and then using their length to force the opponent into a long jump shot, and that was a huge factor in making Atlanta's undersized defense respectable. It also helped them mask Bibby's shortcomings as a defender, as any pick-and-roll was met with a switch and a big man on the opposing point guard.

We saw the result in the postseason, as the Hawks eliminated Dwyane Wade's forays to the basket in the first round by switching everything and forcing him to shoot over the top of their big men. Look for Atlanta to use this approach once again, as newly acquired Joe Smith can also switch onto guards comfortably and the rest of the crew is largely intact from a year ago.

Offensively, the frontcourt's foot speed is also a factor. Horford and Smith excel at taking rebounds and pushing the ball up the floor themselves, while those two and Williams frequently beat their opponents in transition to create easy buckets for themselves or teammates. That has made the Hawks a dangerous transition team despite starting two guards who are much more comfortable in half-court settings.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Biggest Weakness: Star Power

The Hawks have a bunch of good players. What they don't have is an elite one, and that's the reason last season's 47 wins are probably their ceiling. The Hawks paid big money to Johnson hoping he'd become that type of player, and in spurts he has been, but he's never had a PER over 20 for a full season. While he has proved to be durable and productive, it's difficult to roll up a huge win total if he's the best player on the team. Go through the league's top 15 teams and everybody has at least one player who's better.

If Johnson isn't going to become a superstar, it begs the question of who might. Smith has the most potential but had a disappointing campaign last season, and after half a decade has yet to figure out that he's not a good jump shooter. Williams has strong potential, too, but he's much more of a complementary player. The same goes for Horford, who is rock-solid on defense and the boards but a mechanical post player and a middling shooter.

As a result, the Hawks are unlikely to challenge the upper tier of the Eastern aristocracy. Only a breakout year by Johnson or Smith seems likely to change that prognosis.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Outlook

The Hawks bring back the same team that won 47 games a year ago, with a few upgrades: Teague offers a vast improvement over the departed Law as a fourth guard, and Joe Smith provides a fourth big man that simply didn't exist a year ago.

On paper, all that should make the Hawks a better team than a year ago, but not so fast. Crawford is a better player than Murray if you're comparing careers, but he'll be hard-pressed to match the season Murray put together a year ago. Similarly, Pachulia and Bibby may also struggle to match their solid 2008-09 campaigns.

And the Hawks aren't as youthful as they once were. While they still own three 23-year-olds in the frontcourt, the four veteran backcourt players are 31, 30, 29 and 28; additionally, Smith is 34 and Pachulia's listed age of 25 is only believable if you use a 500-day calendar.

Between the limited scope for improvement and the lack of star power, it seems the Hawks shouldn't be much worse than a year ago … but neither should they be any better. It's quite possible they'll finish this season in the exact same position as last season -- at the top of the East's pretender heap, but miles away from the ruling Cleveland-Boston-Orlando trinity.

Prediction: 44-38, 2nd in Southeast Division, 4th in Eastern Conference

___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

pretty interesting analysis. i bolded a few areas i personally found particularly interesting.

on another thread with the poll of how many games do you think the hawks will win, i figured around 49. i think this is a better team, but they are getting to a level where it takes twice the effort for half the advancement in standing. it's much easier to go from 13 wins to 27 wins than it is to go from 47 wins to 54 wins. the hawks will be better, with the standard growth of continued familiarity with each other and general growth in skill and maturity of marvin, josh and al. i think they were fairly lucky healthwise, like the article above points out us not missing major time of two or more starters, so i don't expect that luck to continue all next season, but our added depth should cover that so it will more or less be a wash. personally i think 44 wins is closer to the low end of win projections, with 55 wins the absolute ceiling. hope i'm wrong on that last part and at least two or more of josh, joe, marvin, and al step up their games to a completely higher level than they have been playing at for the past two years.

i still think they will end up a 4 seed, maybe slip to a 5 seed, but they should make a much more interesting second round of the playoffs, and with serious luck (i.e. bad injury luck to one of the "big three" eastern conf. teams) i think they could make it to the eastern conference finals, which would probably end like last years cleveland playoff series.

[bumpyphish1]

Great post, man. Very solid info, and judicious use of the BOLD option. Interesting take on Marvin. I knew we signed him at a bargain because I think he still has room to grow but the part about the highest FTA/TO rate is pretty remarkable and puts him in pretty good company.

[DrReality]

If we stay healthy we will win more games than he predicts.

[Admin]

Yes it was already posted back on the 29th of September. http://www.hawksquawk.net/community/index.php/topic/339838-2009-10-forecast-atlanta-hawks

[exodus]

Individually, it's easily to see why. The biggest overachiever here was Marvin Williams, who averaged nearly four free-throw attempts for every turnover -- the highest rate in basketball, and more than double the league average.

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

That is going to make Diesel and Nine absolutely sick.

[gsuteke]

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

That is going to make Diesel and Nine absolutely sick.

Imagine what Marvin could do if he tried to improve

LOL

[jerrywest]

Yes it was already posted back on the 29th of September. http://www.hawksquawk.net/community/index.php/topic/339838-2009-10-forecast-atlanta-hawks

Someone was under heavy medication and didn't post anything on the next day.

[Plainview1981]

this came out sept. 28th (espn insider), but i haven't seen this posted anywhere else yet, so i apologize if it has been already. john hollinger put out this pretty indepth 09-10 projection for the hawks, at least a little more than the generic blurbs i read elsewhere.

take it for what it's worth.

___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

2008-09 Recap

It wasn't a remarkable season, perhaps, but it was certainly an odd one. For starters, a Hawks team that appeared to have no bench whatsoever found itself carried by its second unit into an unlikely second-round playoff appearance. And for no apparent reason, Atlanta's offense somehow broke one of the most fundamental correlations in basketball.

HOLLINGER'S '08-09 STATS

W-L: 47-35 (Pythagorean W-L: 46-36

Offensive Efficiency: 106.6 (10th)

Defensive Efficiency: 104.6 (11th)

Pace Factor: 91.9 (24th)

Highest PER: Joe Johnson (18.26)

Let's tackle the second point first. There's a predictable relationship between free-throw attempts and turnovers -- teams with lots of one tend to accumulate lots of the other, too. The reason should be obvious: Arms that are close enough to hack an opponent often find the ball as well. Take last season, for instance. Of the 10 teams with the lowest turnover rate, six were also in the bottom 10 in free-throw rate; similarly, six of the high turnover teams were also in the top 10 in free-throw rate.

Somehow, the Hawks severed this relationship. It's strange that it would be them, since they weren't a particularly good offense in any other respect. Atlanta shot just below the league average from the field and was a poor offensive rebounding team. By all rights, they should have been a mediocre offensive team.

Instead, they finished 10th in offensive efficiency, thanks to one remarkable stat: They have the sixth-lowest turnover rate, with miscues on only 13.9 percent of their trips, but the ninth-highest free-throw rate, at .323 per field goal attempt.

FTA per TO: 2008-09 leaders

Team FTA/TO

Golden State .199

Atlanta .199

Denver .198

Utah .194

League average .176

* Min. 500 minutes

Atlanta was the league's only team to finish in the bottom 10 in turnover rate and the top ten in free-throw rate, as somehow the Hawks owned a unique ability to generate free throws without imperiling the ball. An easy way to look at this phenomenon is by looking at free-throw attempts per turnover (see chart), an area in which the Hawks ranked a close second to Golden State at 1.99 -- the league average was 1.76.

Individually, it's easily to see why. The biggest overachiever here was Marvin Williams, who averaged nearly four free-throw attempts for every turnover -- the highest rate in basketball, and more than double the league average. Zaza Pachulia (2.53) and Josh Smith (2.23) also had strong rates, but it was a team effort -- only Mike Bibby's mark was notably below the league average.

Free-throw attempts per turnover: 2008-09 individual leaders

Player Team FTA TO FTA/TO

Marvin Williams Atlanta 273 70 3.90

Hakim Warrick Memphis 372 98 3.82

Antawn Jamison Washington 454 125 3.62

Kevin Martin Sacramento 527 146 3.61

Chris Bosh Toronto 617 174 3.55

* Min. 500 minutes

Pachulia's strong number in this category was the second plank in the Hawks' unusual season. Heading into the year the second unit appeared to be a disaster zone. Pachulia had played horribly a year earlier, reserve guard Flip Murray was dumped by two different teams and Maurice Evans was the only other accomplished reserve.

Instead, the second unit carried the Hawks on many nights. Pachulia and Murray outperformed expectations, and the Hawks stayed healthy enough that they rarely had to venture deeper than eight men -- which is great news for a team that only had eight decent players. While several different Hawks missed time, it worked out that the injuries were rarely simultaneous, making it easier to fill in the gaps.

Murray set a career high in PER, and Pachulia raised his by over three points from the year before. As a result the two had the best plus-minus marks on the team, while the Hawks became one of the league's strongest second-quarter teams.

Defensively, the story was more mundane but no less pleasant. The Hawks had been an offense-first squad a year earlier after a midseason trade for Mike Bibby. But they improved to 11th in defensive efficiency last season, mostly as a result of improved effort and experience up and down the roster. Coach Mike Woodson, in his fifth season at the helm, also deserves some credit for keeping his message fresh with a crew that's been hearing his voice for quite a long time now.

In the end the Hawks won 47 games, and there was room for them to go higher -- Josh Smith had a disappointing season that saw him slump to 58.8 percent from the line, Joe Johnson had his second straight midseason funk that suppressed his overall numbers, and Williams missed 21 games and was useless in the playoffs due to a late-season wrist injury.

All told, it was a hugely successful and somewhat bizarre year that saw the Hawks, five years removed from a miserable 13-win campaign, finally become one of the league's respectable teams. Now the challenge is whether they can stay there.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Offseason Moves

It was an interesting offseason in Atlanta because so many of their players were free agents, but ultimately not much changed. The Hawks brought back the same cast, with only a few changes around the edges to improve the questionable depth situation. The one unfinished piece of business is an extension for Joe Johnson, who will be an unrestricted free agent after the season. That might be a tough negotiation; he makes nearly $15 million this year and probably isn't interested in a pay cut, but in the current market he's not worth that kind of money.

Re-signed Mike Bibby to a three-year, $18 million deal. This was a bit of a risk given Bibby's age -- he'll be 34 by the end of the deal -- but as well as he played last season he was going to command midlevel money from somebody. Since he's mostly a 3-point shooter he shouldn't decline too severely, though his defensive shortcomings could become increasingly acute.

Re-signed Marvin Williams to a five-year, $38 million deal. This was great value for the Hawks, as Williams is only 23 and is already one of the league's better two-way forwards. Incentives could take the value of the deal to $43 million, but in that case the Hawks won't mind. Given Williams' production, age, and continued improvement as a shooter, it's a good bet he'll provide substantial value at this price. Even if he doesn't improve at all from this date forward it's a reasonable contract.

Re-signed Zaza Pachulia to a four-year, $19 million deal. Pachulia re-signed for virtually identical money to his previous contract (four years, $16 million), a solid reward for his strong 2008-09 campaign. There isn't much upside here, but he played well in three of the previous four seasons in Atlanta. If he repeats that ratio the Hawks will have a solid return on their investment.

Signed Joe Smith to a one-year deal for the minimum. This was a great deal for the Hawks, and it's a sign of how far they have come that veterans are considering them among potential destinations. Smith fills the one major gap in their frontcourt depth picture -- a solid, jump-shooting 4 who could stretch defenses -- and provides some veteran wisdom to a young locker room.

Let Flip Murray leave, drafted Jeff Teague and Sergiy Gladyr. Teague was a solid choice with the 19th pick. Although listed as a point guard, he's more of a shooter and scorer who can play off the ball with the Hawks -- much as Bibby frequently does -- while the wings do the bulk of the ballhandling. Letting Murray leave was a tough call, but it was unlikely he would play as well as he did a year ago, and the Hawks were able to cover his spot at limited expense with this move and the next one below. As for Gladyr, he's a 19-year-old Ukrainian wing who was a second-round stash pick. He'll play in Spain this year and will likely stay in Europe a few more years to develop.

Traded Acie Law and Speedy Claxton to Golden State for Jamal Crawford. I'm not a big fan of Crawford; in fact, I think he might be the most overrated player in the league. That said, you can't beat this price. Atlanta got him for two players who weren't going to play, and while taking on the $10 million obligation to Crawford a year from now is unpleasant, Atlanta has managed its cap situation well enough that it shouldn't put them into the luxury tax.

Signed Jason Collins to a one-year deal for the minimum. This was a roster-filler move, but it will help the Hawks deal with some of the league's bigger front lines. Among Atlanta's rotation players only Pachulia is big enough to handle behemoth centers in the Howard-Shaq-Yao mold, but Collins has defended such players very well over the course of his career. He's a horrific offensive player and is unlikely to play much otherwise, but should be useful in those specific matchups.

Left Josh Childress in Europe. The Hawks still owned Childress' rights as a restricted free agent, and other teams showed interest in sign-and-trade propositions, but ultimately Atlanta couldn't find a workable deal. They'll own his rights again next summer, when Childress has another out in his contract in Greece and can again try to make a move to the NBA.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Biggest Strength: Frontcourt Mobility

The reason the Hawks' defensive approach works is that they have three 6-foot-9 frontcourt players who are quick enough to switch every screen and cover opposing guards. Al Horford, Josh Smith and Marvin Williams all are comfortable picking up dribblers as they turn the corner and then using their length to force the opponent into a long jump shot, and that was a huge factor in making Atlanta's undersized defense respectable. It also helped them mask Bibby's shortcomings as a defender, as any pick-and-roll was met with a switch and a big man on the opposing point guard.

We saw the result in the postseason, as the Hawks eliminated Dwyane Wade's forays to the basket in the first round by switching everything and forcing him to shoot over the top of their big men. Look for Atlanta to use this approach once again, as newly acquired Joe Smith can also switch onto guards comfortably and the rest of the crew is largely intact from a year ago.

Offensively, the frontcourt's foot speed is also a factor. Horford and Smith excel at taking rebounds and pushing the ball up the floor themselves, while those two and Williams frequently beat their opponents in transition to create easy buckets for themselves or teammates. That has made the Hawks a dangerous transition team despite starting two guards who are much more comfortable in half-court settings.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Biggest Weakness: Star Power

The Hawks have a bunch of good players. What they don't have is an elite one, and that's the reason last season's 47 wins are probably their ceiling. The Hawks paid big money to Johnson hoping he'd become that type of player, and in spurts he has been, but he's never had a PER over 20 for a full season. While he has proved to be durable and productive, it's difficult to roll up a huge win total if he's the best player on the team. Go through the league's top 15 teams and everybody has at least one player who's better.

If Johnson isn't going to become a superstar, it begs the question of who might. Smith has the most potential but had a disappointing campaign last season, and after half a decade has yet to figure out that he's not a good jump shooter. Williams has strong potential, too, but he's much more of a complementary player. The same goes for Horford, who is rock-solid on defense and the boards but a mechanical post player and a middling shooter.

As a result, the Hawks are unlikely to challenge the upper tier of the Eastern aristocracy. Only a breakout year by Johnson or Smith seems likely to change that prognosis.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Outlook

The Hawks bring back the same team that won 47 games a year ago, with a few upgrades: Teague offers a vast improvement over the departed Law as a fourth guard, and Joe Smith provides a fourth big man that simply didn't exist a year ago.

On paper, all that should make the Hawks a better team than a year ago, but not so fast. Crawford is a better player than Murray if you're comparing careers, but he'll be hard-pressed to match the season Murray put together a year ago. Similarly, Pachulia and Bibby may also struggle to match their solid 2008-09 campaigns.

And the Hawks aren't as youthful as they once were. While they still own three 23-year-olds in the frontcourt, the four veteran backcourt players are 31, 30, 29 and 28; additionally, Smith is 34 and Pachulia's listed age of 25 is only believable if you use a 500-day calendar.

Between the limited scope for improvement and the lack of star power, it seems the Hawks shouldn't be much worse than a year ago … but neither should they be any better. It's quite possible they'll finish this season in the exact same position as last season -- at the top of the East's pretender heap, but miles away from the ruling Cleveland-Boston-Orlando trinity.

Prediction: 44-38, 2nd in Southeast Division, 4th in Eastern Conference

___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

pretty interesting analysis. i bolded a few areas i personally found particularly interesting.

on another thread with the poll of how many games do you think the hawks will win, i figured around 49. i think this is a better team, but they are getting to a level where it takes twice the effort for half the advancement in standing. it's much easier to go from 13 wins to 27 wins than it is to go from 47 wins to 54 wins. the hawks will be better, with the standard growth of continued familiarity with each other and general growth in skill and maturity of marvin, josh and al. i think they were fairly lucky healthwise, like the article above points out us not missing major time of two or more starters, so i don't expect that luck to continue all next season, but our added depth should cover that so it will more or less be a wash. personally i think 44 wins is closer to the low end of win projections, with 55 wins the absolute ceiling. hope i'm wrong on that last part and at least two or more of josh, joe, marvin, and al step up their games to a completely higher level than they have been playing at for the past two years.

i still think they will end up a 4 seed, maybe slip to a 5 seed, but they should make a much more interesting second round of the playoffs, and with serious luck (i.e. bad injury luck to one of the "big three" eastern conf. teams) i think they could make it to the eastern conference finals, which would probably end like last years cleveland playoff series.

Agree with this almot 100%. Last year was the ceiling for this team. The wins could go slightly in either direction, but this team can't reach the destination that teams strive for.

Edited October 12, 2009 by Hotlanta1981

[Wurider05]

You can't turn the ball over if you rarely get it (Horf).

You won't turn it over too much if you get the ball with only 5 seconds left on the shot clock (Marvin)

You can't turn the ball over if you are launching uncontested long range jumpers (Smith)

You won't turn the ball over if all you do is shoot jumpers with 20 seconds still on the shot clock and the team hasn't set up!!! (Bibby)

You won't turn the ball over too much when you are scared of taking it to the hole (JJ)

See Hollinger has nothing on me!!

[jerrywest]

Agree with this almot 100%. Last year was the ceiling for this team.

If last year was the ceiling then

Solo = Joe Smith + Collins.

Marvin+Josh+Al will stop improving at age 23.

Crawford+Teague = Flip + Acie.

1 year of playing together won't build any cohesion.

[jerrywest]

You can't turn the ball over if you rarely get it (Horf).

You won't turn it over too much if you get the ball with only 5 seconds left on the shot clock (Marvin)

You can't turn the ball over if you are launching uncontested long range jumpers (Smith)

You won't turn the ball over if all you do is shoot jumpers with 20 seconds still on the shot clock and the team hasn't set up!!! (Bibby)

You won't turn the ball over too much when you are scared of taking it to the hole (JJ)

See Hollinger has nothing on me!!

LOL

[exodus]

You can't turn the ball over if you rarely get it (Horf).

You won't turn it over too much if you get the ball with only 5 seconds left on the shot clock (Marvin)

You can't turn the ball over if you are launching uncontested long range jumpers (Smith)

You won't turn the ball over if all you do is shoot jumpers with 20 seconds still on the shot clock and the team hasn't set up!!! (Bibby)

You won't turn the ball over too much when you are scared of taking it to the hole (JJ)

See Hollinger has nothing on me!!

Now let me see you explain how the Hawks were 9th in the league in free throw attempts.

[Plainview1981]

If last year was the ceiling then

Solo = Joe Smith + Collins.

Marvin+Josh+Al will stop improving at age 23.

Crawford+Teague = Flip + Acie.

1 year of playing together won't build any cohesion.

This team is not climbing higher in the seeding. When I said ceiling... That's what I'm talking about. This team has no shot of becoming a top team in the league. This team doesn't have the star power to play ball with the top 3 teams over the course a season. People forget, this team was 4th by a fairly large margin last year. The Hawks were not without shouting distance of the top 3 teams. This team is stuck in 4th place ad we all know why this team is stuck as a 4th seed team. Poor drafting.

At the end of this season, the hawks will finish 4th again 6-10 games back of 3rd place.

Edited October 12, 2009 by Hotlanta1981

[Joker]

This team is not climbing higher in the seeding. When I said ceiling... That's what I'm talking about. This team has no shot of becoming a top team in the league. This team doesn't have the star power to play ball with the top 3 teams over the course a season. People forget, this team was 4th by a fairly large margin last year. The Hawks were not without shouting distance of the top 3 teams. This team is stuck in 4th place ad we all know why this team is stuck as a 4th seed team. Poor drafting.

At the end of this season, the hawks will finish 4th again 6-10 games back of 3rd place.

I disagree, it depends man. The Hawks have to be on the same page, if they are why can't they win a title. The Pacers team with Miller in the 90's weren't better than these Hawks talented wise. Team wise, yes but their improving. I will take a wait and see approach.

[Plainview1981]

This team is not climbing higher in the seeding. When I said ceiling... That's what I'm talking about. This team has no shot of becoming a top team in the league. This team doesn't have the star power to play ball with the top 3 teams over the course a season. People forget, this team was 4th by a fairly large margin last year. The Hawks were not without shouting distance of the top 3 teams. This team is stuck in 4th place ad we all know why this team is stuck as a 4th seed team. Poor drafting.

At the end of this season, the hawks will finish 4th again 6-10 games back of 3rd place.

I epic failed. Well, with the exception of I don't think this is a title contender.

Edited April 14, 2010 by Hotlanta1981

[AHF]

I epic failed. Well, with the exception of I don't think this is a title contender.

I be this is crow that goes down pretty easily, though!