Hollinger's Power Rankings

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http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/insider/columns/story?columnist=hollinger_john&page=PERDiem-091117

The Hawks are flying high this season, claiming the top spot in both of ESPN.com's Power Rankings.

They're baaaaack.

Now that every team has played at least seven games, and most are at nine or 10, it's time to unveil this year's Hollinger Power Rankings.

The formula hasn't changed -- you can see the complete description right here -- but some of the teams certainly have. Most notably, the Atlanta Hawks, which have completed a clean sweep of ESPN.com's Power Rankings by claiming the top spot in Marc Stein's list and my rankings. Monday's overtime win over Portland, sloppy as it was, didn't sully their standing in the eyes of the rankings much, as the Blazers have been no slouches themselves this season, opening the rankings at No. 4.

In fact, the game might be considered a Finals preview were it not for a few things we know about the contenders that the rankings formula doesn't -- notably, the injuries suffered by the Lakers and Magic, and the scuffling first-week start for Cleveland.

The biggest notable trend, however, is something I hit upon Monday: We have a very compressed top of the league right now. At times last year there were only five clubs with ratings of 102.8 or higher, but 13 teams have either reached or surpassed that mark Tuesday. The average rating is always 100.0, but at the moment we're in a bizarre Lake Wobegon league where most of the teams are above average, with 18 teams rating 100 or better.

The flip side of that, as you might imagine, is that the bad teams are pretty darned bad. Three clubs -- Minnesota, New York and New Jersey -- sport ratings in the 80s, with Minnesota's putrescent 85.6 leading the way. Memphis is barely any better, while Philadelphia, the Clippers, Golden State, New Orleans and Charlotte claim more run-of-the-mill awfulness.

As for the heavy hitters? With the exception of No. 2 Boston, right now they're still stuck in the middle of the pack. The world champion Lakers are No. 11, looking up at teams like Oklahoma City and Houston, thanks in part to injuries to Pau Gasol and Andrew Bynum. The team that was supposed to be their main challenger our West, San Antonio, is 14th after having similar trouble keeping its best three players healthy.

In the East, Orlando has had to endure injuries to Vince Carter and Marcin Gortat, the suspension of Rashard Lewis and an unexpected slackening at the defensive end. As a result, the defending Eastern Conference champs open the Rankings season at No. 12. And while the Cavs seem to have righted their ship with a road sweep in Florida after a 3-3 start, a rocky first week still has them stuck in eighth.

A couple of other rankings may surprise some. The 5-4 Kings beat Oklahoma City (5-5) a week ago. But the Thunder rank ninth while the Kings are 21st, mainly because Sacramento has both an inferior scoring margin and an inferior schedule. Houston's lofty No. 6 position may surprise folks too, but the Rockets' .573 schedule strength is the toughest of any club in the top 15.

Chicago's No. 19 ranking may be a bit disappointing to Bulls supporters, especially since they've opened the season 5-4 against the league's second-toughest schedule (only Washington's slate has been more difficult). But their minus-3.11 average scoring margin is unimpressive, even after accounting for the schedule.

And there's one ranking that surprised even me: Denver at No. 3. I saw the Nuggies once in person this season and the Hawks blew them out of the building, which probably left an overly negative impression in my head. But for a team that began without J.R. Smith and missed Kenyon Martin for several games to open up 7-3 with a plus-5.6 average scoring margin, against a very difficult schedule, with seven of the 10 games on the road? That's impressive.

In fact, I'd say the Nuggets, even more than the Hawks, are the team that's stamped themselves as potentially being championship-quality in the early going. Atlanta is rolling, but they've also had everyone healthy. Denver, despite significant adversity, has nearly matched them. Perhaps last year's run to the conference finals wasn't a one-year wonder after all.

OK, time for one last piece of fun and games. These standings won't hold up all season, of course. But if they did, these would be our playoff pairings (and I have a feeling the Blazers wouldn't be too happy about them):

Eastern Conference:

(1) Atlanta vs. (8) Milwaukee

(2) Boston vs. (7) Detroit

(3) Cleveland vs. (6) Toronto

(4) Miami vs. (5) Orlando

Western Conference

(1) Denver vs. (8) San Antonio

(2) Portland vs. (7) L.A. Lakers

(3) Dallas vs. (6) Oklahoma City

(4) Phoenix vs. (5) Houston*

* The Suns would get the higher seed as division winners.

A couple other notes from around the league:

Fernandez • One observation I left out of Monday's Daily Dime: This was the first time I'd seen Portland play in person this season, and I was very impressed with the improvement of Rudy Fernandez on defense. His activity off the ball was far greater than I'd seen in his rookie season, and he was really disruptive in passing lanes, as well. My spies in Portland concur that he's improved quite a bit at that end, which is one more reason the Blazers rank a surprising third in defensive efficiency.

Jackson • Quick follow up on Stephen Jackson: This may not be his last move. Remember, because he was traded so early in the season he can be included in another package deal after Jan. 16. If the Bobcats find themselves out of the running for the playoffs, it's possible they would consider the offer that Cleveland originally made to Golden State, built around Delonte West and a signed-and-traded Wally Szczerbiak. This would require Cleveland to keep its powder dry until January, obviously, which may not happen, but it's something worth filing away.

[DominoT]

I like those playoff pairings... I dream of those, and it's pretty cool that for at least a small window of time, they're pretty close to being real.

[jerrywest]

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