Would we be better off without JJ?

[Admin]

Just curious but do you think that the Hawks would be better off without JJ, assuming that we got decent value in return by trading him as opposed to just letting him walk?

I'm at the point where I'm tired of seeing the ISO Joe offense and I think that we either need to replace Woody and bring in a coach that would use him properly or trade him, which would force us to change our offense ... unless they made Jamal the starter.

[mrhonline]

I definitely want to re-sign him unless you get an All-Star caliber center or PG. He's as good a player as Atlanta can get via free agency.

I see JJ and Horford as the foundation of the roster, and Teague as the player you are counting on to grow the most over the next 2-3 years. What to do with Josh Smith is an ever-changing mystery, while Bibby, Zaza, and Marvin are tradeable in the right package.

I do not think Sund/AS ownership have any interest in disrupting this team right now and will probably do little other than re-sign JJ next year. They've built a good team, but not a great one.

To be a great team, the Hawks need JJ as their second option, especially as he grows older.

Edited January 5, 2010 by mrhonline

[spotatl]

Why would you assume that the hawks could get "good" value for Joe if they traded him? THis offseason so many teams will have caproom that he will have lots of options to go wherever he wants to. At the deadline teams wouldn't give up a lot not knowing if they could resign him. In the offseason the Hawks would have very little leverage to do a S&T since Joe would have plenty of options to go wherever he wanted. I don't even think that its an option to Pay him the money now since he has big financial reasons to wait until he is a free agent to sign.

To me the realistic choices are:

1. I think its worth to pay Joe max money in order to keep him. (If the Hawks are willing to max him out they can give him more $$ than anyone else and he would stay)

2. I don't think that Joe is worth max money- he should be traded now so we can get what we can out of him even though he is an expiring contract and teams won't give a ton since he could walk after the season.

3. I don't think that Joe is worth max money but I don't think anyone else will offer him max money. I'm fine with letting him walk away with zero compensation if he gets a big offer in the offseason. Anything we get in a S&T is bonus but I know we can't count on that. If no one offers him a big contract and he is willing to take a smaller contract then we can bring him back.

Anything else is just an unrealistic scenario that doesn't apply.

So I'll say the Hawks have to do what they can to Resign Joe even if it means maxing him out. I think that SOMEONE will absolutely offer him the max this offseason- there are too many teams clearing room for players they have little or no chance of getting. They have so few options to improve in FA that losing him for little or no compensation would be an absolute disaster. If the Hawks had never made the Crawford trade and would have max caproom this offseason even if Joe walked then maybe I would feel differently but right now thats not the situation they are in.

Edited January 5, 2010 by spotatl

[Admin]

Why would you assume that the hawks could get "good" value for Joe if they traded him? THis offseason so many teams will have caproom that he will have lots of options to go wherever he wants to. At the deadline teams wouldn't give up a lot not knowing if they could resign him. In the offseason the Hawks would have very little leverage to do a S&T since Joe would have plenty of options to go wherever he wanted. I don't even think that its an option to Pay him the money now since he has big financial reasons to wait until he is a free agent to sign.

I think that if we aren't going to re-sign JJ that we'll do a SnT with him in the off-season so that he can get that extra year on his contract plus more money and we'll get back a young player, an overpaid veteran, and I'd guess some type of draft pick compensation as well. I'd say that this is this is far more likely than Joe simply signing someplace else for less years and less dollars than we could pay him (whether we keep him or not). I look at JJ like Rashard Lewis when the Magic traded for him or even Hedo Turkoglu when he was traded for by the Raptors as examples of players who the receiving team gave up something to acquire to save themselves money or to help shed salary on their team. I highly doubt we could get equal value for Joe but we might be able to get a guy like Anthony Randolph (just using him as an example not who we'd probably trade for) who is a young star in the making.

[Admin]

I definitely want to re-sign him unless you get an All-Star caliber center or PG. He's as good a player as Atlanta can get via free agency.

I see JJ and Horford as the foundation of the roster, and Teague as the player you are counting on to grow the most over the next 2-3 years. What to do with Josh Smith is an ever-changing mystery, while Bibby, Zaza, and Marvin are tradeable in the right package.

I do not think Sund/AS ownership have any interest in disrupting this team right now and will probably do little other than re-sign JJ next year. They've built a good team, but not a great one.

To be a great team, the Hawks need JJ as their second option, especially as he grows older.

I agree that we need to keep JJ but I will say that either he or Woody needs to go after this year as we'll never be a consistent team with the way we currently play offense. Knowing that JJ thrived in Phoenix in a system where he could play off the ball gives me hope if we replaced Woody that JJ could take that next step in stardom but he'll never get there in our ISO Joe offense. We've also got to get a consistent threat to play as his sidekick and I know that I've mentioned Caron Butler many times around here and although he's a lot older than Marvin and has his flaws I think he could be a guy that with his desire to score and ability to do so could drastically help our offense.

[coachx]

I did not vote b/c I have not made up my mind.

Everything is contingent on what you get back. The trades below are only IF Sund has wind that JJ will be gone in the off season.

If the Clippers want to dump salary for an expiring contract then I would strongly consider:

JJ for Chris Kaman and Eric Gordan

Kaman is damn near an allstar center. I bet he would have made the team, by now, if not for being stuck on the Clippers. He is averaging over 19 ppg, over 9 rpb, 1.4 bpg, and 51% FG% and has consistently put up these types of numbers throughout his career. He has alwayse played by another high rebounding frontcourt player (Randolph and Camby) but still manages to consistently get 9 to 11 rpg for himself.

His contract is right at, or maybe even below, market value.

Eric Gordon is very strong as a SG and would beef up the physicality at SG to pair with Crawford's skinny frame.

It sure as heck beats losing JJ for nothing. There is NO way this deal happens in a sign and trade b/c there is NO WAY JJ signs a long deal with the Clippers.

The only reason the Clippers do it is to get money off their books. I know Dunleavy would not want to it but its often times the owner who makes the salary dump / exping deal type of trades.

I would also offer a JJ/ Marvin / 1st for Carmelo Anthony. They may laugh and hang up the phone but I would at least try it. Its doubtful unless JJ guarantees he would resign with Denver.......and even then its still doubtful. Hey, you never know ! The Nuggets dumped Camby for nothing last year. Its doubtful they do it but its worth a shot. I may even consider JJ / Smoove for Carmelo and cap fillers.

JJ for B. Lopez and bad contracts.

I doubt the Nets bite on that but the thinking may be that JJ could help lure Lebron to NJ. I don't think there is enough salary uner the cap for the Nets to realistically keep JJ and sign James but its worth a call.

A trade with Bosh makes sense for us but makes no sense for the Raptors. There is no way that JJ would re-up with Toronto.

Edited January 5, 2010 by coachx

[spotatl]

Dolfan- but the point is that you couldn't count on it. If Joe was going to sign with the Knicks it likely wouldn't be as part of a S&T- it would just being him signing. It reduces the leverage the Hawks have. It doesn't eliminate the leverage- but it greatly reduces it.

Funny you use the example of Hedo Turkoglu- you do know that the Magic got nothing in return but a little cash for their part in the S&T? The same thing with Rashard Lewis- the Sonics got a heavily protected second rounder... When a player has the option of signing straight out the team with the rights has very little leverage in a S&T.

Edited January 5, 2010 by spotatl

[Admin]

Dolfan- but the point is that you couldn't count on it. If Joe was going to sign with the Knicks it likely wouldn't be as part of a S&T- it would just being him signing. It reduces the leverage the Hawks have. It doesn't eliminate the leverage- but it greatly reduces it.

Funny you use the example of Hedo Turkoglu- you do know that the Magic got nothing in return but a little cash for their part in the S&T? The same thing with Rashard Lewis- the Sonics got a heavily protected second rounder... When a player has the option of signing straight out the team with the rights has very little leverage in a S&T.

I'm 100% confident that Sund will know well ahead of time whether JJ plans to sign with us or leave, hell he probably already knows, and if he knows ahead of time that JJ is going to leave he can find out the teams that JJ is interested in and talk to them about deals. I'm also 100% confident that JJ will want a 6 year deal with more money as opposed to a 5 year deal and less money. And the only way that happens is via SnT.

The Sonics also got a large trade exception, something like 9 million I believe for the Lewis trade. Lewis is a comparable player to JJ in that they would be about the same age at the time of the trade and statistically they're very comparable.

I only mentioned the Turk deal because it's just another example of teams working out a trade rather than simply signing outright but even then they got a 7 million dollar trade exception for a player that they were originally fine with losing outright. If he were as valuable as JJ I'm certain they could have gotten more for him.

[mrhonline]

That potential trade exception will be huge for the Hawks, who will be over the cap with only the MLE to work with.

[TheNorthCydeRises]

People have to keep it real about this team. When you look at teams that can play a balanced offensive style, you usually have a dynamic PG running the show, a great creater/shooter on the wing, and a low post presence that can score efficiently in the half court set.

We only have 1 of those 3 elements.

When you look at the NBA.com Hotspots data ( http://www.nba.com/hotspots ), it tells you all you need to know about this team. Go to that site, and pull up the various names of the players. Look at their shooting and where they actually make shots from. Also look where they miss from.

- Josh Smith ONLY scores when he can get to the rim. His jumpshot is as bad as ever.

- Al Horford is basically a guy who is most effective if he can take a 15 foot jumper, or receive a pass with him going to the rim. His on the block efficiency just isn't there, even though we try to force the ball to him.

- Marvin is struggling MIGHTILY with his mid-range jumper. What used to be his strength, is one of his biggest weaknesses right now.

- Zaza is strictly an around the rim guy, whose ability to create is almost non-existant ( especially if a guy is the same size as he is )

- Joe Smith, is supposed to be our best frontcourt shooter. The data this year, and even his play in Cleveland last year, would indicate that he's a mediocre to slightly bad shooter at best. He can't create his own shot.

So when you look at the frontcourt, you kind of see what the problem is. They're not good at creating their own shot and they struggle with midrange jumpshooting when they do get open looks. All of these players essentially need a penetrating, pass-first PG to maximize their potential. Now look at the guards/wings.

- Bibby's game is almost exclusively the spot up jumper. If the NBA Hotspot data is correct, he's only gotten to the rim 33 times this year, an indication that he doesn't ( or can't ) penetrate much at all.

- Crawford could be a dangerous mid-range shot creator. But he's so in love with his inconsistent 3 point shot, that it cancels out his mid-range prowess.

- JJ 3-point shot is highly schizophrenic, even when wide open, although his midrange game is a little better this year. But his inability ( or unwillingness ) to draw contact, limits his scoring potential.

- With Teague, as much as everyone wants to see him play, he hasn't show to be neither a good outside shooter nor a good finisher going to the hole, even in scrub time. At this time, he's no more than a more athletic version of Acie Law, like it or not.

- Mo Evans, a guy that is traditionally one of the better spot up 3 point shooters in the league, is seeing his shot fall off as well. He's not going to create his shot. So he needs that pass-first PG as well.

The shooting data doesn't lie folks. JJ and Crawford, as guys who can create their own shot, are better jumpshooting options, than giving our frontcourt guys open looks from 15 feet. And because we don't have a great passing PG here that can also keep people honest with his offense, the frontcourt guys can't be trusted on a nightly basis in the halfcourt offense.

This is why Woody has always preached rebounding and defense. If we do that, it will ignite the fast break/quick strike offense that makes us a good offensive unit ( from an efficiency standpoint ). Our frontcourt guys score the vast majority of their points via early offense.

- Josh Smith scores 7 of his 15 points within 10 seconds elasping off the shot clock.

- Horford . . 5.6 of his 14 points

Conversely, JJ scores most of his points in the final 10 seconds of the shot clock ( 8.1 points ). He's the "bail-out guy", when we can't score early with the other guys.

It is what it is folks.

[spotatl]

If you want to say that You are fine with letting Joe walk and getting just a trade exception in return then thats definitely a viable trade scenario- I don't see that as being a good move for the hawks but thats certainly attainable in a S&T.

Trades like Kaman and Gordon for Joe are just not realistic at all. I am just trying to remind people of what the team could really expect in a S&T when the Hawks have such little leverage.

But no question large trade exceptions can be very useful for teams that are willing to take on major salary. If you really don't think that Joe is worth the max then this is a perfectly reasonable direction for you want the team to go in. I have to see it as a step back- but maybe its a necessary step back to you.

Edited January 5, 2010 by spotatl

[WraithSentinel]

I go back and forth on this all the time. Right now I am not sure. Right now my thinking is short term we will be screwed by having JJ leave. If we re-sign him he will screw us long term. He has about 2-3 years of good basketball left I feel. Then those 4-6 years of the contract will really screw the team over.

[TheNorthCydeRises]

So of course, I voted "lack of offensive talent around JJ". And lack of a PG that can take the ball out of JJ's hands.

I still say that we'd be much better off with Andre Miller than Jamal Crawford. Dre can't shoot, but he can pass and defend better than Crawford. And we'd have 2 guys who could effectively run a team in Bibby and Miller. I think a guard like Miller would definitely help Marvin out, and take some of the creation burden off of JJ. And Miller's 169 FT attempts this year would place him #2 on the Hawks, just behind Josh Smith's 171 attempts.

Of course, a guy like Jason Kidd would be perfect for the Hawks. He's lost a lot defensively, but he can still run a team. And now, he can hit the 3 point shot.

And if you want to see what a legit low post presence, shot creator can do for an offense, look no further than Memphis. Zach Randolph has absolutely transformed that team into a legit threat. If people really wanted to be real, he's a borderline MVP CANDIDATE. Lionel Hollins just won Coach of the Month.

Zach's rebounding and shot making ability in the frontcourt, would be a godsend to a team like the Hawks. Of course, that also means that Josh Smith would've either have to be traded, or be sent to the bench. Either that, or basically use him as a utility type player at SF, that doesn;t get touches unless he gets offensive rebounds.

So the fact is folks . . . if we're not playing defense and rebounding . . . and if our backcourt can't get the job done on most nights . . . we're not going to win. Or if we do win, it'll be a battle to the death.

Edited January 5, 2010 by northcyde

[Admin]

If you want to say that You are fine with letting Joe walk and getting just a trade exception in return then thats definitely a viable trade scenario- I don't see that as being a good move for the hawks but thats certainly attainable in a S&T.

Trades like Kaman and Gordon for Joe are just not realistic at all. I am just trying to remind people of what the team could really expect in a S&T when the Hawks have such little leverage.

But no question large trade exceptions can be very useful for teams that are willing to take on major salary. If you really don't think that Joe is worth the max then this is a perfectly reasonable direction for you want the team to go in. I have to see it as a step back- but maybe its a necessary step back to you.

I think that we can get a young player still on his rookie contract and/or some type of draft pick compensation in addition to the trade exception. I'd rather keep Joe but if we're not going to replace Woody then this is what we need to do.

I definitely do not think we can get a player who is on JJ's level though. The added value would have to come from a player having star potential, draft pick(s), or a valuable trade exception.

One thing that could be an option though is getting a few of the Knicks young talent by taking on the contracts of Jeffries and/or Curry as I've heard that they're willing to gut their roster to be able to sign 3 max FA's and the only way they're getting rid of Curry and Jeffries is by giving up young talent. For example we might be able to get one of Hill/Gallinari and Douglas if we were to take on Jeffries contract which is roughly 7 million and expires after next season. It really depends on whether they give up anything to get the other 2 max free agents that they want though as I'd imagine they'd be more willing to give up players for DWade and Lebron than they would JJ.

[macdaddy]

Re-sign Joe. Can't see us finding another player of his caliber that anyone is ready to send our way. I think Joe is ready to leave though.

The question of whether Joe is responsible or Woody for our offense is a funny one to me. Either answer reflects pretty poorly on the coach.

[Buzzard]

I said trade him simply because he is not going to be the player that can get us past Orlando in our own division. Unless we make some serious moves, 2nd place behind the Magic is a given for the next 3 to 5 years.

And if the Heat can keep Wade and sign someone like Boozer; 3rd place may be our long term destiny.

Edited January 5, 2010 by Buzzard

[coachx]

People have to keep it real about this team. When you look at teams that can play a balanced offensive style, you usually have a dynamic PG running the show, a great creater/shooter on the wing, and a low post presence that can score efficiently in the half court set.

We only have 1 of those 3 elements.

When you look at the NBA.com Hotspots data ( http://www.nba.com/hotspots ), it tells you all you need to know about this team. Go to that site, and pull up the various names of the players. Look at their shooting and where they actually make shots from. Also look where they miss from.

- Josh Smith ONLY scores when he can get to the rim. His jumpshot is as bad as ever.

- Al Horford is basically a guy who is most effective if he can take a 15 foot jumper, or receive a pass with him going to the rim. His on the block efficiency just isn't there, even though we try to force the ball to him.

- Marvin is struggling MIGHTILY with his mid-range jumper. What used to be his strength, is one of his biggest weaknesses right now.

- Zaza is strictly an around the rim guy, whose ability to create is almost non-existant ( especially if a guy is the same size as he is )

- Joe Smith, is supposed to be our best frontcourt shooter. The data this year, and even his play in Cleveland last year, would indicate that he's a mediocre to slightly bad shooter at best. He can't create his own shot.

So when you look at the frontcourt, you kind of see what the problem is. They're not good at creating their own shot and they struggle with midrange jumpshooting when they do get open looks. All of these players essentially need a penetrating, pass-first PG to maximize their potential. Now look at the guards/wings.

- Bibby's game is almost exclusively the spot up jumper. If the NBA Hotspot data is correct, he's only gotten to the rim 33 times this year, an indication that he doesn't ( or can't ) penetrate much at all.

- Crawford could be a dangerous mid-range shot creator. But he's so in love with his inconsistent 3 point shot, that it cancels out his mid-range prowess.

- JJ 3-point shot is highly schizophrenic, even when wide open, although his midrange game is a little better this year. But his inability ( or unwillingness ) to draw contact, limits his scoring potential.

- With Teague, as much as everyone wants to see him play, he hasn't show to be neither a good outside shooter nor a good finisher going to the hole, even in scrub time. At this time, he's no more than a more athletic version of Acie Law, like it or not.

- Mo Evans, a guy that is traditionally one of the better spot up 3 point shooters in the league, is seeing his shot fall off as well. He's not going to create his shot. So he needs that pass-first PG as well.

The shooting data doesn't lie folks. JJ and Crawford, as guys who can create their own shot, are better jumpshooting options, than giving our frontcourt guys open looks from 15 feet. And because we don't have a great passing PG here that can also keep people honest with his offense, the frontcourt guys can't be trusted on a nightly basis in the halfcourt offense.

This is why Woody has always preached rebounding and defense. If we do that, it will ignite the fast break/quick strike offense that makes us a good offensive unit ( from an efficiency standpoint ). Our frontcourt guys score the vast majority of their points via early offense.

- Josh Smith scores 7 of his 15 points within 10 seconds elasping off the shot clock.

- Horford . . 5.6 of his 14 points

Conversely, JJ scores most of his points in the final 10 seconds of the shot clock ( 8.1 points ). He's the "bail-out guy", when we can't score early with the other guys.

It is what it is folks.

:thumbsupsmileyanim:

Well said.

I agree on all points with the exception of Horford. My eyes tell me he has added some polish to his offensive post game. We all know he struggles to in the post vs. the big and talented 7 foot centers so the consistency is not there on a nightly basis. However, if you move him to PF, that added low post polish would be more dominant and more consistent.

Now last year I was on the opposite side of the fence as far as Horford's best position. Horford was too raw and had not shown me the post game polish that would make him effective vs. PF that are quicker and more athletic then the centers he was used to facing. However, I think he has that polish now and will only get better offensively IF he is given the chance to play PF full time.

Smoove on the other had simply lacks the size to be a dominant post scorer vs. 1/2 of the PFs in this league. He can get 15 points a night off night fast breaks, lobs, put backs, and the occaisonal post up, but I just don't see him having the same offensive post up potential that Horford has as a PF.

I also believe that Horford's blocks would go up to 2.0 a game if he was able to play the help defender role with a big center, like Kaman or even a Heywood, playing position defense as the "anchor."

B/c of that I really want to see Horford get a chance to be a PF and play beside a legit, starting caliber NBA center. (ZaZa is not a starting caliber NBA center.) Hence, IF we can trade Smoove for a guy like Kaman I'd do it in a second. If Sund thinks its just 50/50 that JJ resigns with us then I would even offer JJ for Kaman / Gordon. Now Kaman may be "untouchable." 7 footers with talent are hard to come by but now is the time to call around.

Another move I would consider is a move that brings a combo of (Butler / Heywood) or (Jameison / Heywood). Let the bait be Smoove or Marvin.

Smoove will be like Marion.............At the age of 30 his game will fall of the map as his athletic ability becomes closer to the NBA average.

Edited January 5, 2010 by coachx

[Buzzard]

If you want to say that You are fine with letting Joe walk and getting just a trade exception in return then thats definitely a viable trade scenario- I don't see that as being a good move for the hawks but thats certainly attainable in a S&T.

Trades like Kaman and Gordon for Joe are just not realistic at all. I am just trying to remind people of what the team could really expect in a S&T when the Hawks have such little leverage.

But no question large trade exceptions can be very useful for teams that are willing to take on major salary. If you really don't think that Joe is worth the max then this is a perfectly reasonable direction for you want the team to go in. I have to see it as a step back- but maybe its a necessary step back to you.

It is a step back to let JJ go play some place else. He is our best player no question; but the real question is with a max type salary tied up in JJ, how far can JJ take this team? With our current makeup I dont see us getting past Orlando in our own division for at least two or three more years.

[benhillboy]

Let me see. Joe can't jump 1 foot off the ground, can only beat Quentin Richardson off the dribble with his foot speed, has a perfect body but shys away from contact and the line, never, EVER busts his a#$ down the floor, has the intensity of a senior snail, and frankly isn't the brightest or most instinctive guy when intangibles are needed from your "best" player. At this point I could care less about the cap, what his market value is, what we can get back, or how to replace him. He's Ron Harper. Mitch Richmond. Tim Hardaway. Latrell Sprewell. Danny Granger. Kevin Martin. Rolondo Blackman even. Jerry Stackhouse, or maybe not, as Joe could never lead the league in scoring. Damn good second option. As a third option, you'll be favored to win it all. But primary option that the rest of your team looks to and depends on to carry them physically, mentally, and emotionally when needed, and having the wisdom to know when and how to apply himself? Look elsewhere. I've always said he's a fine player, all things considered, but there are simply too many flaws to depend on him and pay him like a "star." A fine player who I could care less if he walked. I hate to beat the dead horse, but hey, I'm the resident Joe Hater here. It's my job.

Edited January 6, 2010 by benhillboy

[Packfill]

So of course, I voted "lack of offensive talent around JJ". And lack of a PG that can take the ball out of JJ's hands.

I still say that we'd be much better off with Andre Miller than Jamal Crawford. Dre can't shoot, but he can pass and defend better than Crawford. And we'd have 2 guys who could effectively run a team in Bibby and Miller. I think a guard like Miller would definitely help Marvin out, and take some of the creation burden off of JJ. And Miller's 169 FT attempts this year would place him #2 on the Hawks, just behind Josh Smith's 171 attempts.

Of course, a guy like Jason Kidd would be perfect for the Hawks. He's lost a lot defensively, but he can still run a team. And now, he can hit the 3 point shot.

And if you want to see what a legit low post presence, shot creator can do for an offense, look no further than Memphis. Zach Randolph has absolutely transformed that team into a legit threat. If people really wanted to be real, he's a borderline MVP CANDIDATE. Lionel Hollins just won Coach of the Month.

Zach's rebounding and shot making ability in the frontcourt, would be a godsend to a team like the Hawks. Of course, that also means that Josh Smith would've either have to be traded, or be sent to the bench. Either that, or basically use him as a utility type player at SF, that doesn;t get touches unless he gets offensive rebounds.

So the fact is folks . . . if we're not playing defense and rebounding . . . and if our backcourt can't get the job done on most nights . . . we're not going to win. Or if we do win, it'll be a battle to the death.

I know no one wants to say it (or hear it), but Chris Paul is the perfect point guard for this team. A pick and roll offense with him and Horford would be nice, with JJ setting up on the opposite wing and Smith ready to go to the rim for a Chris Paul special. Additional shooters like Marvin/Crawford/Evans would fit as well.

Absent that, the Hawks may be better off in the long-term trading one of Smith or Horford for a big that can actually score in the paint. Horford's old understudy, Marresse Speights would the type of guy the team should target.