Would we be better off without JJ?

[TheNorthCydeRises]

Let me see. Joe can't jump 1 foot off the ground, can only beat Quentin Richardson off the dribble with his foot speed, has a perfect body but shys away from contact and the line, never, EVER busts his a#$ down the floor, has the intensity of a senior snail, and frankly isn't the brightest or most instinctive guy when intangibles are needed from your "best" player. At this point I could care less about the cap, what his market value is, what we can get back, or how to replace him. He's Ron Harper. Mitch Richmond. Tim Hardaway. Latrell Sprewell. Danny Granger. Kevin Martin. Rolondo Blackman even. Jerry Stackhouse, or maybe not, as Joe could never lead the league in scoring. Damn good second option. As a third option, you'll be favored to win it all. But primary option that the rest of your team looks to and depends on to carry them physically, mentally, and emotionally when needed, and having the wisdom to know when and how to apply himself? Look elsewhere. I've always said he's a fine player, all things considered, but there are simply too many flaws to depend on him and pay him like a "star." A fine player who I could care less if he walked. I hate to beat the dead horse, but hey, I'm the resident Joe Hater here. It's my job.

So who do we replace him with?

LOL . see the problem with the "let JJ go" mentality, is that most of you can't name another realistic choice to replace the guy with. So if we let JJ go, we'd either have to hope Horford develops into an offensive force, or give the ball to Crawford. Even in coachx's scenario, we're not getting a star player, all we're doing is balancing out the team a little better.

You know what the problem is? The problem is that, all of a sudden, being just GOOD isn't good enough. It's either be GREAT, or get rid of people and chase greatness.

Retaining JJ may not see the Hawks win a title. But it may assure that we'll win 50 games a year, ala what you see in Utah or in Dallas. But because it may not win us a title, some of you are willing to just get rid of him, and go with someone else. LOL, you can't name who, but you're willing to go with someone else . . . even if it sets us back a few seasons.

I'm sorry folks, but watching that team lose for 8 straight years before they got back to the playoffs, almost had me hating NBA basketball sometimes. Now that we're good, I'm loving the fact that I can see the Hawks win 60 - 70% of the time.

I mean technically, we weren't going to win a title with Dominique either ( before the 1994 season ). So in the season in which we had the best shot to possibly achieve that goal, we trade him for a younger "supposedly" more versatile player in Danny Manning. That team damn near got bounced in Rd 1 and could do little with Indiana in Rd 2.

If re-signing JJ means that we'll win 48+ games a year, lose 4 times in the 2nd round and lose once in the EC Final . . but never get to the NBA Finals, I could actually live with that.

It's better than wishing and hoping for ping pong balls to fall our way come May, when they have the draft lottery selection order show. But people would rather chase after ghosts, than enjoy what they have right now.

LOL . . JJ is about to be a 4-time All Star, and still can't get much love. If he does leave, that'll be part of the reason why.

[Admin]

I understand what you're saying North but right now 67% of the responses are to re-sign JJ and only 1 person voted for letting him walk so it's not like we're all wanting him gone. For me I've just gotten to the point where I'm sick and tired of ISO Joe and that means replacing Woody first and if by some strange reason JJ still plays the same way then I'll look to trade him but we absolutely must become a team that moves without the ball and isn't dominated by Joe having the ball and deciding our fate.

[coachx]

So who do we replace him with?

LOL . see the problem with the "let JJ go" mentality, is that most of you can't name another realistic choice to replace the guy with. So if we let JJ go, we'd either have to hope Horford develops into an offensive force, or give the ball to Crawford. Even in coachx's scenario, we're not getting a star player, all we're doing is balancing out the team a little better.

Just for the record I do not want to trade JJ UNLESS Sund has a strong feeling, after negotiating an extension last off season with JJ, that there is just a 50 /50 chance JJ will resign. If Sund feels he has a good chance to keep him then I would keep JJ for a 5 year deal. However, if its a 50/50 chance he could walk and we get nothing (or very little) in return.............then I'd jump at the chance to get a27 yr old, legit 7 footer, who is a unquestionable top 5 center in this league (Kaman), + a young 21 year old SG who was awsome at Indiana and has shown potential in L.A. (Gordon).

I have confidence in Sund's ability to see the big picture.

Edited January 6, 2010 by coachx

[AHF]

People have to keep it real about this team. When you look at teams that can play a balanced offensive style, you usually have a dynamic PG running the show, a great creater/shooter on the wing, and a low post presence that can score efficiently in the half court set.

We only have 1 of those 3 elements.

When you look at the NBA.com Hotspots data ( http://www.nba.com/hotspots ), it tells you all you need to know about this team. Go to that site, and pull up the various names of the players. Look at their shooting and where they actually make shots from. Also look where they miss from.

- Josh Smith ONLY scores when he can get to the rim. His jumpshot is as bad as ever.

- Al Horford is basically a guy who is most effective if he can take a 15 foot jumper, or receive a pass with him going to the rim. His on the block efficiency just isn't there, even though we try to force the ball to him.

- Marvin is struggling MIGHTILY with his mid-range jumper. What used to be his strength, is one of his biggest weaknesses right now.

- Zaza is strictly an around the rim guy, whose ability to create is almost non-existant ( especially if a guy is the same size as he is )

- Joe Smith, is supposed to be our best frontcourt shooter. The data this year, and even his play in Cleveland last year, would indicate that he's a mediocre to slightly bad shooter at best. He can't create his own shot.

So when you look at the frontcourt, you kind of see what the problem is. They're not good at creating their own shot and they struggle with midrange jumpshooting when they do get open looks. All of these players essentially need a penetrating, pass-first PG to maximize their potential. Now look at the guards/wings.

- Bibby's game is almost exclusively the spot up jumper. If the NBA Hotspot data is correct, he's only gotten to the rim 33 times this year, an indication that he doesn't ( or can't ) penetrate much at all.

- Crawford could be a dangerous mid-range shot creator. But he's so in love with his inconsistent 3 point shot, that it cancels out his mid-range prowess.

- JJ 3-point shot is highly schizophrenic, even when wide open, although his midrange game is a little better this year. But his inability ( or unwillingness ) to draw contact, limits his scoring potential.

- With Teague, as much as everyone wants to see him play, he hasn't show to be neither a good outside shooter nor a good finisher going to the hole, even in scrub time. At this time, he's no more than a more athletic version of Acie Law, like it or not.

- Mo Evans, a guy that is traditionally one of the better spot up 3 point shooters in the league, is seeing his shot fall off as well. He's not going to create his shot. So he needs that pass-first PG as well.

The shooting data doesn't lie folks. JJ and Crawford, as guys who can create their own shot, are better jumpshooting options, than giving our frontcourt guys open looks from 15 feet. And because we don't have a great passing PG here that can also keep people honest with his offense, the frontcourt guys can't be trusted on a nightly basis in the halfcourt offense.

This is why Woody has always preached rebounding and defense. If we do that, it will ignite the fast break/quick strike offense that makes us a good offensive unit ( from an efficiency standpoint ). Our frontcourt guys score the vast majority of their points via early offense.

- Josh Smith scores 7 of his 15 points within 10 seconds elasping off the shot clock.

- Horford . . 5.6 of his 14 points

Conversely, JJ scores most of his points in the final 10 seconds of the shot clock ( 8.1 points ). He's the "bail-out guy", when we can't score early with the other guys.

It is what it is folks.

(1) This is an analysis of our players in an iso offense. I agree with your conclusions if the assumption is that we don't install another offense and our young players don't significantly develop offensively over the course of the next year or so. I do think our frontcourt players could do more in a different system but for an iso system, Crawford and JJ are by far our best options for sure.

(2) I would hope every coach in the league preaches rebounding and defense. There isn't a system for which outstanding defense and rebounding is anything but an extremely important part of the game.

(3) I voted for resigning JJ without the "fire Woody" part of it. I want to play out the year and assess Woody at the end of the season.

Edited January 6, 2010 by AHF

[TheNorthCydeRises]

Just for the record I do not want to trade JJ UNLESS Sund has a strong feeling, after negotiating an extension last off season with JJ, that there is just a 50 /50 chance JJ will resign. If Sund feels he has a good chance to keep him then I would keep JJ for a 5 year deal. However, if its a 50/50 chance he could walk and we get nothing (or very little) in return.............then I'd jump at the chance to get a27 yr old, legit 7 footer, who is a unquestionable top 5 center in this league (Kaman), + a young 21 year old SG who was awsome at Indiana and has shown potential in L.A. (Gordon).

I have confidence in Sund's ability to see the big picture.

I'm glad you have confidence in Sund, because I don't. Bringing in Crawford for basically nothing was a good move from a talent upgrade perspective. But that move has effectively put us in the situation that we're in right now with JJ. It's Crawford's 10+ million contract in 2010-11 that may cause the Hawks to pass on JJ. And if the plan all along is for Crawford to be the replacement for JJ, then I'm definitely not on the Sund bandwagon.

I saw Sund waste 1st round picks 3 consecutive years, chasing after raw big men. He has a track record of chasing after "fool's gold". When you look at the people a guy like Robert Swift was picked ahead of in 2004, it's scary

- Josh Smith

- Al Jefferson

- JR Smith

- Jameer Nelson

- Kevin Martin

People talk about BK's Shelden Williams pick in 2006, but at least Shelden had outstanding collegiate accolades. Swift was basically a high school kid who was a very raw talent. And don't even get me started on Walter's boy, Saer Sene.

He gets a B- from me so far. He's improved our team, no doubt.. .but he may have mortgaged our future at the same time.

Edited January 6, 2010 by northcyde

[coachx]

I'm glad you have confidence in Sund, because I don't. Bringing in Crawford for basically nothing was a good move from a talent upgrade perspective. But that move has effectively put us in the situation that we're in right now with JJ. It's Crawford's 10+ million contract in 2010-11 that may cause the Hawks to pass on JJ. And if the plan all along is for Crawford to be the replacement for JJ, then I'm definitely not on the Sund bandwagon.

I saw Sund waste 1st round picks 3 consecutive years, chasing after raw big men. He has a track record of chasing after "fool's gold". When you look at the people a guy like Robert Swift was picked ahead of in 2004, it's scary

- Josh Smith

- Al Jefferson

- JR Smith

- Jameer Nelson

- Kevin Martin

People talk about BK's Shelden Williams pick in 2006, but at least Shelden had outstanding collegiate accolades. Swift was basically a high school kid who was a very raw talent. And don't even get me started on Walter's boy, Saer Sene.

He gets a B- from me so far. He's improved our team, no doubt.. .but he may have mortgaged our future at the same time.

I was not refering to him chasing big men in the draft. When looked at in contex, it makes since why he was chasing big men in the late lottery and middle first round since the Sonics were set at every other position and its near impossible to trade for a legit starting center. Any GM can take Ewing, Robinson, Shaq, or Duncan when they have the 1st pick overall. Its tough finding 7 footers in the middle of the round though and I think he has learned his lesson there. That is why values Horford as a prodective center but I bet he longs for that true center deep inside. Well..........all that is beside the point.

I do have confidence in his negotiatiing skills, trade skills, and ability to see the big picture.

I love the Crawford move since it allows JJ to play SF more and gives us another guy who can create his shot at will. Crawford is also a fall back plan / insurance policy incase JJ pulls a fast one and bolts Atlanta for equal money some where else.... if we don't offer that 6th year when JJ is 35 years old and is no longer a near max player. That is what I call seeing the big picture.

He has a track record of refusing to over pay mid tier "stars" like Rashard Lewis. Lewis is a solid player, like JJ, but is not worth his near max salary contract.

I think that was a good call on his part.

He traded a washed up Gary Payton for Ray Allen in his prime. Everyone agrees that was a good call.

Put those two together and I think he will make the right call based on his expierence and resume. He has made several comments when he makes GM references to the game of poker.........meaning he equates chance, with the risk / reward....the same balancing act we all do when playing poker. I trust his poker skills in free agency and trades based on his resume in those 2 areas.

You seem to prefer to go "all in" on resigning JJ. What if the Hawks "bust ?"

What if NY or Chicago offer max money ? Is JJ worh $20 mill per ?

What if he prefers to play in a bigger market, for a franchise with real fans, (Chicago or NY) for a little less money since he would get more media attention and marketing deals ? All of this is being considered by a veteran GM, like Sund.

When playing poker you may think you have a great hand with 3 Aces. Then you go all in and get busted by a Full House. That is when you see people lose big pots of money..........both guys had a full house or a flush but one had a queen high and the other had a king high.

If we lose JJ for nothing we are seriously screwed. Some of the folks on here don't have a clue and think we can just let JJ go and throw the money at Wade. Me and you know it doesn't work like that. With or without JJ we are going to be over the cap and will not have the ability to sign other team's players other then using the league exemptions (MLE, LLE). All we really have to better the team significantly are trades....... and if JJ walks its takes our biggest chip piece away from us when negotiating trades and adds another hole to fill at the same time.

So my point is.........does the risk = the reward ?

1.) Risk = lose JJ for nothing

2.) Reward = resign JJ for 5 or 6 years at between $15 & $20 mill per season

3.) Safety net = trade JJ now for the best deal you can find. Hopefully Kaman + either Gordon or Throrton or possibly a better deal then that. Would the Hornets consider moving Chris Paul for JJ's expiring deal ? Their owner is in financial trouble and Paul is frustrated there. The trade possibilities will materialize as we near the Feb trade deadline.

My opinion is to look at every possible option and leave no stone unturned. Don't get blind-sided and expect the unexpected.

Edited January 6, 2010 by coachx

[Buzzard]

So who do we replace him with?

LOL . see the problem with the "let JJ go" mentality, is that most of you can't name another realistic choice to replace the guy with. So if we let JJ go, we'd either have to hope Horford develops into an offensive force, or give the ball to Crawford. Even in coachx's scenario, we're not getting a star player, all we're doing is balancing out the team a little better.

You know what the problem is? The problem is that, all of a sudden, being just GOOD isn't good enough. It's either be GREAT, or get rid of people and chase greatness.

If re-signing JJ means that we'll win 48+ games a year, lose 4 times in the 2nd round and lose once in the EC Final . . but never get to the NBA Finals, I could actually live with that.

It's better than wishing and hoping for ping pong balls to fall our way come May, when they have the draft lottery selection order show. But people would rather chase after ghosts, than enjoy what they have right now.

LOL . . JJ is about to be a 4-time All Star, and still can't get much love. If he does leave, that'll be part of the reason why.

There is no black and white answer here. How many people could have predicted a year ahead of time the Lakers would get Gasol for nothing or the Celtics would get both Allen and Garnet for a few bad 1st round draft picks and Al Jefferson. The thing to notice is settling for 1st and 2nd round exits was not an option for either team. That is where we are now. If we keep JJ, can and/or will ownership make moves to get us above the 2nd round.

If so great; but if not then I think we need to start over. 2nd round exits are not going to convince the Atlanta fan base that ownership is truly vested in bringing them a winner. You can fool some of the people some of the time; but after decades of nothing better than second round exits; you cannot fool them anymore. Its time to put up or shut up; and ownership needs to understand this.

Edited January 7, 2010 by Buzzard

[Dakin]

I seriously doubt Joe would want to play for the Clippers. How does that make any sense?

[coachx]

I seriously doubt Joe would want to play for the Clippers. How does that make any sense?

It doesn't matter what Joe wants.

If the Clippers want to save money.............which they have a history of doing..............a large expiring contract is what would save their owner money.

Its about risk vs. reward.

So my point is.........does the risk = the reward ?

1.) Risk = lose JJ for nothing

2.) Reward = resign JJ for 5 or 6 years at between $15 & $20 mill per season

3.) Safety net = trade JJ now for the best deal you can find. Hopefully Kaman + either Gordon or Throrton or possibly a better deal then that. Would the Hornets consider moving Chris Paul for JJ's expiring deal ? Their owner is in financial trouble and Paul is frustrated there. The trade possibilities will materialize as we near the Feb trade deadline.

My opinion is to look at every possible option and leave no stone unturned. Don't get blind-sided and expect the unexpected.

Look at this on Kaman:

http://www.nba.com/video/channels/nba_tv/2010/01/07/20100107_centers_attention4.nba/

[Buzzard]

It doesn't matter what Joe wants.

If the Clippers want to save money.............which they have a history of doing..............a large expiring contract is what would save their owner money.

Its about risk vs. reward.

Look at this on Kaman:

http://www.nba.com/video/channels/nba_tv/2010/01/07/20100107_centers_attention4.nba/

I agree with what you are saying coachx but we are also competing with T-Macs 22 million expiring. We will see how things work out; but if I could get Paul or Kaman for JJs expiring, it would be done already.

[Atlantaholic]

We can be a contender with JJ... Horford and Smoove are still developing, and they are already a top 5 PF - C combo in the NBA.

[Buzzard]

We can be a contender with JJ... Horford and Smoove are still developing, and they are already a top 5 PF - C combo in the NBA.

Until ( and if ) Smith becomes more consistent, he and Horf are not a top 5 combo. Smith averaged 13.7 ppg and 6.4 rpg in December. If he misses the all-star game all he needs to do is look back on those 14 games to understand why.