Predict the next 5 games

[Admin]

Sorry guys I've been swamped at work this past week so I forgot to open this topic back up after the Thunder game but I thought maybe we'd like to discuss that 5 game stretch and see where we were right and wrong.

I would like to pat myself on the back for correctly predicting that we'd be 2-3, even though I was wrong about which games we'd win LOL.

[spotatl]

Clearly expectations were too low.

[Wretch]

Well, they did exactly the opposite of what I predicted - except the loss to OKC. I knew we were going to lose that one. Out of all these games though, the San Antonio game really opened my eyes. They pretty much set their game plan from the start and we never adjusted. I wasn't sure about the Boston game...I just couldn't imagine we were going to sweep them in the season.

[Buzzard]

Clearly expectations were too low.

Kind of a mixed bag but I guess you are patting yourself on the back for our losses now?

For the 26% who thought we would lose to both Houston and Boston, expectations to low.

For the 50% who thought we would beat the Spurs to high.

For the almost 37% who thought we would beat Orlando to high.

For the 80% who thought we would beat the Thunder to high.

Oh well, back to the drawing board I guess (being sarcastic here). Have not posted in a couple of days; has the Squawk crumbled and crashed lately due to the Thunder loss and all the trade everyone topics?

[spotatl]

Buzzard- you started a thread talking about how fans expectations were too low when in reality just 1 out of every 9 fans had expectations that were too low. Don't you at all see the humor in that? You can bump up that thread if you still want to stand by it.

[Buzzard]

Buzzard- you started a thread talking about how fans expectations were too low when in reality just 1 out of every 9 fans had expectations that were too low. Don't you at all see the humor in that? You can bump up that thread if you still want to stand by it.

I do think on a game by game basis many fans expectations are to low; and it reflects every home game in our attendance. Here on the Squawk, expectations are much more reasonable ( we only missed by one game); but even here sometimes the negativity sets in and very knowledgeable fans lose sight of the fact that we are not the Hawks of old.

And if you want to say those of us who predicted a win and we lost had to high an expectation; then you must also admit those who predicted a loss and we won had to low an expectation. This is not Burger King, you cannot have it just your way.

If 26% of knowledgeable fans do not expect us to beat Boston at home and Houston on the road, I will extrude from that .... that a higher % of casual fans do not expect wins and this is why our attendance still sucks even though we have beaten the Celtics four times now. I could be wrong here; and just maybe John and Jane Doe living in Atlanta think we are better than most Squawkers do and this is why they do not show up. But that is not logical to me. So I will stick with my assumption that their day to day expectations are to low.

Disagree with me all you want; but usually when fans have high expectations they show up. Unless of course you think Atlanta is bored with all the great teams we have had.....

Edited February 4, 2010 by Buzzard

[Admin]

I do think on a game by game basis many fans expectations are to low; and it reflects every home game in our attendance. Here on the Squawk, expectations are much more reasonable ( we only missed by one game); but even here sometimes the negativity sets in and very knowledgeable fans lose sight of the fact that we are not the Hawks of old.

The majority here only missed by 1 game, but that's 20% off and over an entire season that would be a HUGE difference of roughly 15 games over the course of the season if that trend continued. Obviously we probably wouldn't continue to be off by 1 game every 5 throughout the season but even if you cut that in half it could be that the average fan on here expects us to win 8 more games over the entire season than we will actually win and it's easy to see looking at that why there is so much negativity around here since expectations are often too high.

I think that next season I'm going to try and do these 5 game polls throughout the season (if I can remember) and I'd like to see how accurate we are.

[Buzzard]

The majority here only missed by 1 game, but that's 20% off and over an entire season that would be a HUGE difference of roughly 15 games over the course of the season if that trend continued. Obviously we probably wouldn't continue to be off by 1 game every 5 throughout the season but even if you cut that in half it could be that the average fan on here expects us to win 8 more games over the entire season than we will actually win and it's easy to see looking at that why there is so much negativity around here since expectations are often too high.

I think that next season I'm going to try and do these 5 game polls throughout the season (if I can remember) and I'd like to see how accurate we are.

I think that would be a cool poll to do over the course of a season. One other thing is the majority may miss on the low side and get some right as well. So I would not assume that the misses are always on the high side; and the 8 or 16 game high side difference may not be a reality.

Edited February 4, 2010 by Buzzard

[spotatl]

Buzzard- you were incredulous that so many hawks fans did not believe the team would win 3 of the 5 games. When I pointed out that it was pretty likely the Hawks would be underdogs in at least 3 of the games you just brushed it off because the lines weren't accurrate. The fact of the matter is that 80 of people here thought the hawks would win a game that the Hawks were underdogs in. To me thats a pretty clear sign that the expectations are too high rather than too low.

I don't think fans need to be called out for thinking that the Hawks would go 3 and 2- that was a reasonable prediction. But it was also VERY reasonable to predict that they woudl go 2-3 yet you started a whole thread asking "why the hell" do longtime fans here not expect the team to go 3-2. Of course it turns out the reason was that they had more realistic expectations than you did.

Its really that I just get irritated when people act like if you aren't a blind homer that you aren't a real fan. You can be a real fan and think the team is going to lose a game.

[Buzzard]

Buzzard- you were incredulous that so many hawks fans did not believe the team would win 3 of the 5 games. When I pointed out that it was pretty likely the Hawks would be underdogs in at least 3 of the games you just brushed it off because the lines weren't accurrate. The fact of the matter is that 80 of people here thought the hawks would win a game that the Hawks were underdogs in. To me thats a pretty clear sign that the expectations are too high rather than too low.

I don't think fans need to be called out for thinking that the Hawks would go 3 and 2- that was a reasonable prediction. But it was also VERY reasonable to predict that they woudl go 2-3 yet you started a whole thread asking "why the hell" do longtime fans here not expect the team to go 3-2. Of course it turns out the reason was that they had more realistic expectations than you did.

Its really that I just get irritated when people act like if you aren't a blind homer that you aren't a real fan. You can be a real fan and think the team is going to lose a game.

Never called anyone out for 3-2; which is you reading your words into my post. 3-2 is a reasonable assumption for KNOWLEDGEABLE and PASSIONATE Hawks fans. You seem to think its to high and I do not think 3-2 is to high. So keep your incredulous statements to yourself and please just stick to the facts.

2-3, 1-4, 0-5 is what I found interesting and a good barometer for negative thinking. Not a fans fault BTW; just a reflection of our past history.

Disagree with me all you want; but usually when fans have high expectations they show up. Unless of course you think Atlanta is bored with all the great teams we have had.....

Edited February 4, 2010 by Buzzard

[spotatl]

I was saying that I was not personally calling fans out for thinking that the team would go 3-2. As I said that was a reasonable prediction that just turned out to be wrong. Just as 2-3 woudl have been a reasonable prediction even if the team had gone 3-2 though I have little doubt in your mind that would have been evidence that fans expectations were too low.

2-3 you think was negative thinking and you thought it was WRONG for fans to believe that. Of course it turned out to be true and it wasn't negative thinking at all. I do think that it means that you had completely unrealistic expectations.

If it was asking about a 10 game stretch and 30% of fans thought the team would win fewer than 3 games when in reality the team won 7 then its fair game to say that the fans don't ahve high enough expectations. But you just picked a terrible example to start your thread about.

Edited February 4, 2010 by spotatl

[Buzzard]

I was saying that I was not personally calling fans out for thinking that the team would go 3-2. As I said that was a reasonable prediction that just turned out to be wrong. Just as 2-3 woudl have been a reasonable prediction even if the team had gone 3-2 though I have little doubt in your mind that would have been evidence that fans expectations were too low.

2-3 you think was negative thinking and you thought it was WRONG for fans to believe that. Of course it turned out to be true and it wasn't negative thinking at all. I do think that it means that you had completely unrealistic expectations.

If it was asking about a 10 game stretch and 30% of fans thought the team would win fewer than 3 games when in reality the team won 7 then its fair game to say that the fans don't ahve high enough expectations. But you just picked a terrible example to start your thread about.

My point which just seems to swoop over your head is not how many were positive with a 3-2 outlook or better. This is a Hawks fan site and I would expect a much more positive fanatical outlook here than with your everyday casual or fair weather fan.

If at a Hawks fan site 10% or more think we are only capable of winning one or none out of five games; imagine what % of fair weather fans in Atlanta have that same outlook. Could this be close to the 30% you sited above? I think that is a possibility. Another point is people on this board have noticed a negative outlook towards our team; some say its because we expect to much. I say its because some here always expect disappointment.

So if a fanatical fan website outlook is sometimes described as negative by longtime members and admins; imagine what the cities general outlook is as a whole. Now is it clear what I meant or do you still hold on to the belief that when fans think highly of a team they do not go to games? I am done trying to explain this and hope you see it now as not a personal attack on anyone. Just an observation right or wrong that I thought was interesting.

Edited February 5, 2010 by Buzzard

[AHF]

My point which just seems to swoop over your head is not how many were positive with a 3-2 outlook or better. This is a Hawks fan site and I would expect a much more positive fanatical outlook here than with your everyday casual or fair weather fan.

If at a Hawks fan site 10% or more think we are only capable of winning one or none out of five games; imagine what % of fair weather fans in Atlanta have that same outlook. Could this be close to the 30% you sited above? I think that is a possibility. Another point is people on this board have noticed a negative outlook towards our team; some say its because we expect to much. I say its because some here always expect disappointment.

So if a fanatical fan website outlook is sometimes described as negative by longtime members and admins; imagine what the cities general outlook is as a whole. Now is it clear what I meant or do you still hold on to the belief that when fans think highly of a team they do not go to games? I am done trying to explain this and hope you see it now as not a personal attack on anyone. Just an observation right or wrong that I thought was interesting.

It may be the opposite, though, with respect to fair weather fans and fans here. The fans here looked and saw games on the road against playoff teams. They then generally predicted either a 3-2 or a 2-3 record. That is very realistic.

Fair weather fans are more likely to just take a casual guess as to how many games the Hawks will win. They are less likely to take into account the location and opponent matchups than the more hardcare fans here.

I am just saying that the guys here follow the league pretty closely and so their predictions may be more realistic than a casual fans which could translate into more optimistic or more pessimistic than the casual fan depending on the circumstances.

Edited February 5, 2010 by AHF