I have a graph for you, Mike Woodson.

[mrhonline]

Areas (for players getting major minutes) where the white far overreaches the red are general indicators that a player needs more offensive possessions. In theory, you could take them from players where the red far overreaches the white.

So, Mike...let's get Joe and Jamal to pass the ball to Horford every once in a while.

http://www.hardwoodp...per-mid-season/

Edited January 25, 2010 by mrhonline

[AHF]

I thought the whole article was an interesting read.

[spotatl]

Stupid chart. Anything that makes it look like Randolph Morris and Othello Hunter get more touches on offense than Horford is just a bad chart overall. And when you use PER that isn't a straight measure of offense it makes it look even worse. Or do you think that Marcus Camby also should be getting far more offensive touches?

I think this is an example of confirmation bias. Because it agrees with what you already believe it stands out to you and you don't notice the big problems with the analysis.

I think it was a good idea that just missed with the execution.

Edited January 25, 2010 by spotatl

[AHF]

Stupid chart. Anything that makes it look like Randolph Morris and Othello Hunter get more touches on offense than Horford is just a bad chart overall. And when you use PER that isn't a straight measure of offense it makes it look even worse. Or do you think that Marcus Camby also should be getting far more offensive touches?

I think this is an example of confirmation bias. Because it agrees with what you already believe it stands out to you and you don't notice the big problems with the analysis.

I think it was a good idea that just missed with the execution.

spotatl - We are in agreement that Morris shoots the ball 13.6 times per 36 minutes, Hunter shoots the ball 13.1 times per 36 minutes and that Horford shoots it 10.4 times per 36 minutes, right? The fact is that Morris and Hunter do shoot the ball more on a per minute basis than Horford. All the stats being measured are per minute stats so I have zero problem with that part of your criticism.

I do, however, agree with your point that PER measures more than offense and is not the best stat for this. The best example is probably Ben Wallace who is terrible offensively but has a pretty decent PER based on his rebounding and defensive stats. Al and Josh certainly have better PER numbers than pure offensive numbers (since their defensive counting stats are good) even though PER doesn't do all that much to measure defense.

For Al, I haven't seen numbers yet that don't show him being underutilized, though. TS%, PER, looking at his high usage rate games, etc. They all show he should not be 10th on the team in shots per minute like he is now. Every player on the team shoots more per minute than Al except Zaza, Collins and Mario.

[spotatl]

AHF- I couldn't care less about how much Randolph Morris shoots in the 3 minutes at the end of a blowout. To me the Chart would have been far more useful looking at overall percentage of shots taken. Horford has a far bigger role on offense than those other guys. Al Horford is 4th in the team in shots taken- thats a far better measure of his role on the team on offense. There would still be teams that have their secondary players taking too large a role of the offense- but looking at the number of shots taken would be a far better measure.

Edited January 26, 2010 by spotatl

[TheNorthCydeRises]

That's a cool looking chart though. Not quite sure if PER should correlate with Usage %. But that's a cool looking chart.

The only thing to keep in mind, is that Horford sees over 60% of his shots assisted. He's not nearly as good at creating his own offense, as he is receiving passes that lead directly to layups or open jumpers. He probably should be used more.

I know Woody likes to play Marvin with the 2nd unit, but if you wanted to get Horford potentially more touches, maybe he should be playing with the 2nd unit ( either at center or at PF ). This does mean that Horford needs to be subbed out first, to give him the breather toward the end of the 1st quarter. Then bring Horford back in with the 2nd group.

Teague

Crawford

Evans

Joe Smith

Horford

Maybe with that group, Crawford may be more willing to pass the ball to Horford, than to take most of the shots himself.

[mrhonline]

I agree that PER is a poor stat to pair with USG%.

ORtg, however, is not. So, long story short, I used ORtg to project what a player's USG% should be based on their efficiency (vs. league average) this year.

For the Hawks, I was shocked to see that only Jeff Teague would see a reduction in USG%. See attached:

[mrhonline]

By the way, your top 10 "I should have ball in my hands more" players (from best to 10th best):

Chris Paul

Chauncey Billups

Chris Bosh

Matt Bonner

Al Horford

Nene Hilario

Carl Landry

Pau Gasol

Robin Lopez

Jose Calderon

[/code]




And your top 10 "Please get me to stop" players (from 10th worst to worst):



[code]

Rafer Alston

Daequan Cook

C.J. Miles

J.R. Smith

Bobby Brown

Hilton Armstrong

Terrence Williams

Sean Williams

Jannero Pargo

Sasha Pavlovic

Edited January 26, 2010 by mrhonline

[mrhonline]

The top 10 worst offensive players in the league*** (from 10th worst to worst):

Joel Przybilla

Thabo Sefolosha

Quinton Ross

Jared Jeffries

Brian Scalabrine

Kurt Thomas

Kenny Thomas

DeShawn Stevenson

DeSagana Diop

Fabricio Oberto

[/code]




The ten best (from best to 10th best):



[code]

LeBron James

Dwyane Wade

Carmelo Anthony

Kobe Bryant

Kevin Durant

Chris Bosh

Dirk Nowitzki

Brandon Roy

Gilbert Arenas

***Among the 304 players who have played in at least 20 games with a 10+ min/game average***

Edited January 26, 2010 by mrhonline

[spotatl]

AHF- thanks for doing that. To me thats a chart of a team that is in balance pretty well. I think if you looked at a team like Golden State then you would see low efficiency players taking a ton of the shots.

Edited January 26, 2010 by spotatl

[AHF]

AHF- thanks for doing that. To me thats a chart of a team that is in balance pretty well. I think if you looked at a team like Golden State then you would see low efficiency players taking a ton of the shots.

mrhonline did that one (I wouldn't know where to start in trying to create a graphic like that) but I'll happily take credit! :whistling:

[spotatl]

Ha- sorry. Thanks mrhonline- that was a great chart. To me that would have been much more useful than the other one looking at Usage (including scrubs that have taken under 30 shots all year) vs PER.

[AHF]

Ha- sorry. Thanks mrhonline- that was a great chart. To me that would have been much more useful than the other one looking at Usage (including scrubs that have taken under 30 shots all year) vs PER.

Agreed.

[mrhonline]

Thanks, I'll do one for the Cavs (LeBron was the "maximum" for the projections) and another interesting team or two, so we can compare.

[mrhonline]

[mrhonline]

The Hornets are interesting. The arrow is pointing at something...LOL.

[spotatl]

Golden State and Washington would be interesting because of the shots burned by Ellis and Arenas. Maybe the Lakers for what it looks like when a team does have a very underutilized post player to compare it to Horford's numbers.

[mrhonline]

The Bulls have virtually no one other than Rose who would be a 1st or 2nd option on most other teams.

[mrhonline]

Surprisingly, Maggette has performed like a 1st option this year. It's not as bad as you'd think, once you adjust for pace. (Ellis takes a lot of shots, but the whole team takes a lot of shots).

Defense is their problem. (They have three legit offensive options in Ellis, Randolph, and Maggette).

[mrhonline]

Washington's is very similar to Cleveland's (with less talent). They really do have a TON of offensive talent. Theirs is a problem of chemistry, defense, and guns.