I have a graph for you, Mike Woodson.

[mrhonline]

The Lakers have a dynamite "Big 3," then the "Big Dropoff."

[spotatl]

I guess I was just expecting to see bigger differences in the chart. Ellis has a usage of 29.8, has taken 916 shots, and has an offensive rating of just 99. Maggette has a usage of 25.9, has taken 400 fewer shots than ellis and has an Offensive rating of 121. To me there should be a chart that shows the Warriors are giving Ellis FAR too many shots.

[mrhonline]

Based on the numbers, Ellis' USG% should be 27.2 and Maggette's 27.8.

Ellis' drop in USG% (2.6%) would be the 3rd most among players in the top20 in usage (Arenas - 2.8, J.R. Smith - 3.2).

Edited January 26, 2010 by mrhonline

[mrhonline]

BTW, spotatl, are you familiar with Dean Oliver's concept of skill curves?

Here are some examples:

Edited January 26, 2010 by mrhonline

[spotatl]

Mrhonline- how are you calculating what their Usage should be? When one player has an Orating of 121 and the other has one of 99, how are you arriving at the number that they should have the same usage rate? I'm a huge believer that players offensive rating will go down if you have them take on a larger role in the offense, but Ellis and Maggete have had such a massive difference in effectiveness that I can't really see how the numbers could come back to say that they shoudl have the same usage.

Edited January 26, 2010 by spotatl

[mrhonline]

I'm multplying usage x ORtg. Having ranked players according to their present USG%, I then rank them according to their USGXORtg score...and then cross-reference.

Monta went from 7th to 15th in usage. (I assigned him Chris Kaman's USG%).

The problem with this:

players offensive rating will go down if you have them take on a larger role in the offense

is that it's incredibly hard to quantify. I'm assuming a bit of a "middle ground." That said, having Maggette take two or three of Ellis shots' per game would not only improve Ellis ORtg because Monta is inefficient, but because Maggette is efficient.

Edited January 26, 2010 by mrhonline