Trends and Likelihoods.

[Diesel]

This is what will probably happen in the playoffs this year:

1. Cleveland

2. Orlando

3. Toronto

4. Atlanta

5. Boston

6. Chicago

7. Charlotte

8. Miami or Milwaukee.

IF no major trades take place, this is what we will have....

Prediciton:

1st round.

Cleveland over Miami

Orlando over Charlotte

Toronto vs. Chicago = Push.

Atlanta over Boston.

Second Round

Atlanta vs. Cleveland.

I think we can knock them off. Let's be honest though... They are getting better. Still, I think if we can be competitive at the beginning of games then when the end comes, we will be able to outgun them.

Orlando vs. Toronto or Chicago.

The Bulls have the cure for Orlando. They are 1 and 0 against them... and they play again this Wednesday... I will watch. The issue is that the Bulls have Noah and Miller to confound Howard... and Orlando can't match Chicago's guard play.

If this is the scenerio... The Hawks will make the NBA Finals.

I feel very confident about the Seeds. The real question is can the Bulls beat the Raps? IF they can, I like their chances against Orlando. IF not, Orlando rips the Raps a new one.

The other point is that we have to start to prepare for Cleveland.

I think we can take them. However, I acknowledge that they are better than the team we played previously. Their chemistry is coming together. But they still have the same problems that they had before... Shaq doesn't help them. Al and Bibby need to perfect the Pick and Roll.

[spotatl]

Id be willing to bet a large amount of money that the Celtics finish with more wins than Toronto.

[HawksFan87]

Did u REALLY put the Raptors in 3rd place??

Edited February 8, 2010 by jsmoovefan

[thecampster]

A few things wrong with your trends.

Cleveland has 8 games remaining with Boston, Orlando, Atlanta (3,3,2).

Orlando has 4 games remaining with Cleveland, Atlanta (3,1)

Boston has 3 games remaining with Cleveland, (3)

Atlanta has 3 games remaining with Cleveland, Orlando (2,1)

Part of Atlanta's 1st half of the season with being a part of the big 4 is they and Boston have played, been beaten on and lost the most to the others.

Atlanta and Boston only have 3 more opportunities to lose to Big 4 teams.

All of Boston's games are against Cleveland. No matter what happens in those games...there are 3 good answers for us. Someone has to lose.

3 of Orlando's games are with Cleveland. Again...someone has to lose.

6 of Cleveland's games are against Boston, Orlando. 6 guaranteed opportunities for Atlanta to gain ground on someone.

Now, it's a tall order, but Atlanta has 3 games against Cleveland and Orlando. If the Hawks can just split Cleveland and win against Orlando, things start to look really good. This means that the Hawks by theory go another game over .500. What we are worried about here is the loss column. There will be 6 additional losses spead among the other 3 of the big 4, in this scenario. The Hawks don't have that problem.

Now on that same order, Toronto had 5 games left with Boston, Cleveland, Atlanta (1,2,2). That is either another 3 possible losses for Boston or Cleveland or 3 for Toronto.

Mathematically, being 5 games behind the Hawks it would be extremely difficult for them to catch us at this point (difficult but not impossible to catch boston). According to NBA.com, the Hawks have played the toughest schedule in the East to date and have the 3rd easiest schedule remaining. The Celtics have the toughest, The magic the 5th toughest and Cavs the 8th toughest.

Applying logic and assuming the ease of the Hawks remaining schedule, the distance behind of the Raptors and the difficulty of Boston's remaining West Coast schedule I would assume the likely playoff picture goes as such.

1. Cavs

2. Hawks

3. Orlando (by rule)

4. Boston (could flip with Toronto)

5. Toronto (could flip with Boston)

[coachx]

3. Toronto

It is very unlikely the Raptors hot streak will continue much longer. They are 5 games behind us right now.

Edited February 8, 2010 by coachx

[Diesel]

Did u REALLY put the Raptors in 3rd place??

Yeah. Toronto's healthy and they are surging while Boston is falling. Toronto doesn't have to be the third best team int he league to be the third seed. Just better than Boston.

[Diesel]

It is very unlikely the Raptors hot streak will continue much longer. They are 5 games behind us right now.

I was under the opinion that the top teams in each division gets the first three seeds. Therefore unless we beat out Orlando, we won't be a top three team.

[coachx]

I was under the opinion that the top teams in each division gets the first three seeds. Therefore unless we beat out Orlando, we won't be a top three team.

Ah...........you are correct sir !

An even bigger reason to fight the Magic for the 2nd seed, A 2nd round matchup vs. the Raptors would be ideal.

Edited February 8, 2010 by coachx

[thecampster]

Ah...........you are correct sir !

An even bigger reason to fight the Magic for the 2nd seed, A 2nd round matchup vs. the Raptors would be ideal.

Again..check my remaining strength of schedule.

Boston and Orlando have their harder west coast / texas schedules left. We've played the toughest schedule and although we play 3 more on the road, our strength of schedule left is much better. Side note...Toronto's is just barely worse than ours. But they are a full 5 games behind us. The Hawks have played 49 games, the Raptors 51. That means to tie the Raptors the Hawks would have to lose 6 more games than the Raptors the rest of the way. Assuming the Hawks finish on their current pace and win 53 games (21-12 the rest of the way). That means the Raptors have to finish 25 and 6 the rest of the way. I don't think so.

[MaceCase]

Winning your division only guarantees you a seed no lower than 4th. If a team has a higher win total than a division winner then they get seeded above the division winner. For example, in 2007 (after the system was revised from 06) Detroit won the Central division, Miami the South East and Toronto the Atlantic yet Cleveland was still the 2nd seed because they had a better record than both Miami and Toronto.

Edited February 8, 2010 by CrawfulToCrawesome

[Diesel]

Winning your division only guarantees you a seed no lower than 4th. If a team has a higher win total than a division winner then they get seeded above the division winner. For example, in 2007 (after the system was revised from 06) Detroit won the Central division, Miami the South East and Toronto the Atlantic yet Cleveland was still the 2nd seed because they had a better record than both Miami and Toronto.

OK then... Revised....

1. Cleveland

2. Orlando

3. Atlanta

4. Toronto

5. Boston

6. Chicago

7. Charlotte

8. Miami or Milwaukee.

1st round:

Cleveland beats Miami or Milwaukee.

Orlando Beats Charlotte

Atlanta Beats Chicago

Boston Beats Toronto

2nd Zround.

Boston vs. Cleveland.

I believe that this Cleveland team was made to beat Boston, but Boston could have an advantage on Cleveland.

Atlanta vs. Orlando..

This is the worst case scenario for us. I don't know if we can beat Orlando. There's a chance, but I just think that their coach knows how to play our coach. The bad news is that if we win, we could possibly play Boston in the finals. Do you know how good it would feel to Sweep Boston out of the playoffs....?

[jerrywest]

An Orlando-Atlanta 2nd round matchup is very likely unless Celtics suddenly find their youth.

To avoid a sweep, Sund needs to make a mid-season trade for a big guy.

[coachx]

Winning your division only guarantees you a seed no lower than 4th. If a team has a higher win total than a division winner then they get seeded above the division winner. For example, in 2007 (after the system was revised from 06) Detroit won the Central division, Miami the South East and Toronto the Atlantic yet Cleveland was still the 2nd seed because they had a better record than both Miami and Toronto.

Good to know.............learn something every day.

[Diesel]

An Orlando-Atlanta 2nd round matchup is very likely unless Celtics suddenly find their youth.

To avoid a sweep, Sund needs to make a mid-season trade for a big guy.

I don't know if "a big guy" is the answer.

Our strength is rebounding. It is also our weakness. When we rebound, we win. We we don't we don't.

The best answer for that is Camby or somebody like that. I just don't see us playing a Camby or another big enough.

So next on my list is a defensive stopper at the guard position. We could really use somebody who can stop guard penetration.

Against Orlando.. Our main problem is not Howard.. He's not going to score 40. It's those other guys:

Nelson, Reddick, Vince.... These are the guys hurting us.

I would love to see us get a healthy Raja Bell or a healthy Thabo.

However, it's hard to see.

[dlpin]

The idea that Boston is going to be passed by Toronto is ludicrous and has no basis on reality. Even struggling as much as they have been this past month, the celtics are 9-12 in the past 21. But those 12 losses include 3 to the hawks and 2 to the lakers. That is, Boston was 9-7 against everyone else, and they dont play the magic or the hawks again. With 33 games left, even if we assume the celtics will be slightly worse than 50%, and finish 16-17, that would still require the raptors to go 21-10 the rest of the way. And the raptors still have 2 games against cleveland, 1 against the lakers, 2 against atlanta, 1 against boston, 2 against portland, 2 against denver, 2 against OKC and 1 against Utah. So they would have to beat every single team with a worse record and at least one team with a better record. Except they are 9-17 on the road and have more games on the road than at home.

The more likely scenario is

1- cleveland

2- magic

3- hawks

4- celtics.

As a celtics fan I am comfortable with that. I think the celtics have a better chance of beating the cavs than either the magic or the hawks.