Strategery.........

[Diesel]

OK, Let's think about this for a moment.

Let's say we have a good postseason... and thisoffseason,we sign Joe to a 5 year deal.

For grins like say 70- 80 Million.

Then let's say we sign Horf to an extension.

If you're watching like I'm watching, then the question that comes to mind is how do the Hawks make themselves better?

1. Trade Zaza?

2. Trade Marvin?

3. Trade Josh?

4. Trade Craw?

5. Trade Bibby?

If we could label players are untouchable... aside from Joe, Horf who would they be?

How important are our late first round picks? Are they untouchable?

In the great FA class of 2010, is there anybody that Sund should keep his eye on?

Is Woody still the coach to move us forward?

Do we need a defensive big or do we need a PG of the future? If so, who would be an attainable person?

Let's participate in a little strategery shall we?

[mrhonline]

Smith is movable only for a starting center, if you ask me...

[MVP23]

Bibby is the only person movable for a true PG. The team is to fragile to move anyone else...

[TheNorthCydeRises]

The thing about the Hawks, ( and I think the organization and everyone else around the league knows this ), is that we have guys who haven't peaked as players yet.

Smoove hasn't peaked.

Horford hasn't peaked.

People say JJ has peaked, but he's enjoying his best efficient season in a while.

Crawford is enjoying his most efficient season ever.

Bibby is in decline.

Marvin may have peaked.

So even if the Hawks stood pat and did very little to change things up, they could get better because of the improvement that Smoove and Horford could possibly undergo. Sund may find a journeyman that no one wants, and add him to the roster. ( ala Flip, Mo ). But yeah, they could trade anybody on the roster to improve the overall product. But you have to identify the defensive big or the PG that you want to add. Just adding a "big" or a "PG" won't necessarily improve us. Adding Joe Smith and Jason Collins to this roster did virtually nothing. So you have to add the right player.

But with us not having expiring contracts, adding the "right" player may mean adding a guy who may be a need, but has a horrible contract or is a guy that the other team is simply sick of. Charlotte took advantage of that, when they acquired Stephen Jackson. Warriors wanted him gone, and Cleveland had expirings to trade for him.

Shoot . . adding Childress to this team, could improve it.

It's just so many things that would be in our favor, as long as we kept the team basically in tact, that could improve us even if we didn't do anything major.

[mrhonline]

Marvin may have peaked.

I firmly believe that as long as his usage rate hovers as low as it is now, there will be a team intrigued by Marvin.

However, I have a an objection to the idea that the Hawks' core is best left alone:

The Hawks have a major, long-term hole defensively at PG, as well as a desperate need for a true center (if only as a reserve). (Dwight Howard is not going away). The longer you keep the core together, the more expensive it becomes. The more expensive it becomes, the harder it becomes to fill those holes.

If the ASG were willing to go into the luxury tax, keeping the secondary tier of the core (Zaza, Bibby, Marvin) together makes perfect sense. As we know, that is not the case.

I can patiently hold out until the JJ/Woody issue is resolved this summer, but, to me, a move MUST be made by this time next year if JJ is retained. His window will be 3 years...

[Diesel]

I firmly believe that as long as his usage rate hovers as low as it is now, there will be a team intrigued by Marvin.

However, I have a an objection to the idea that the Hawks' core is best left alone:

The Hawks have a major, long-term hole defensively at PG, as well as a desperate need for a true center (if only as a reserve). (Dwight Howard is not going away). The longer you keep the core together, the more expensive it becomes. The more expensive it becomes, the harder it becomes to fill those holes.

If the ASG were willing to go into the luxury tax, keeping the secondary tier of the core (Zaza, Bibby, Marvin) together makes perfect sense. As we know, that is not the case.

I can patiently hold out until the JJ/Woody issue is resolved this summer, but, to me, a move MUST be made by this time next year if JJ is retained. His window will be 3 years...

I think you have to realize that if Zaza, Bibby, or Marvin isn't producing any longer, then they have to be looked at as tradable players. Whereas Bibby will probably find no suitors, I think that there are deals that can be made with both Marvin and Zaza. Also, people usually don't talk about this, but we have a problem between Smoove and Horf too. A height problem. In a growing East, this becomes more and more of a problem.

A perfect situ would be for us to resign Joe and Horf.. then to sign Heywood to a deal this offseason.

There may be trades for Marvin and Zaza to come along...

But we also have to consider the maturation of Teague. I think Teague will grow. I think he can be a starter in this league. Right now, I don't know what it will take.

About our first. This is where we try to fill some holes or we either trade it away.

[spotatl]

Diesel- why on earth would you think that Zaza has more trade value than Bibby? Zaza has more years left on his contract and no team in the league sees him as a starter.

[Diesel]

Diesel- why on earth would you think that Zaza has more trade value than Bibby? Zaza has more years left on his contract and no team in the league sees him as a starter.

Simple.

Zaza is nearly 7 feet tall with a good contract.

Bibby is old by PG standards, he doesn't play good defense, he's signed for 2 more years.

Even though Bibby has been the better player, i would think it's just easier to sell off a cheap, young, 7 footer with some scrap than to sign off an old shoot first PG who doesn't play defense. Remember, we got Bibby for Shelden. During his FAcy, how many calls did Bibby get?

[spotatl]

Diesel-- if Zaza were a free agent this coming offseason there is no chance in hell anyone would guarantee him 3 years and 15 million dollars. He doesn't have a good contract- he is very overpaid right now.

Maybe the difference is that you don't realize that its widely understood that Zaza lies about his age? He is believed to be 29 years old- not the 26 years he is listed at. If Zaza had played as well as he did last season then he woudl be movable (but of course then you wouldn't be looking to move him). As it stands now out of the last 3 years Zaza has been terrible in 2 of them and the one year he bounced back it was a contract year.

Literally Zaza has less trade value than Kwame Brown.

MIke bibby is a legitimate starting PG with just 2 years (and 12 million total) left on his contract. He is a far better contract than Zaza.

Edited February 15, 2010 by spotatl

[niremetal]

Maybe the difference is that you don't realize that its widely understood that Zaza lies about his age?

No, Zaza's haters and John Hollinger think that. He wasn't born in China or a small village in Mozambique. He was born in the Soviet Union, and for all their flaws, keeping tabs on their citizens was not one of them. There are no serious doubts about his age.

Edited February 15, 2010 by niremetal

[spotatl]

niremetal- I literally have never seen anyone try and say they actually believe Zaza is his listed age. If you do then thats great and I have no reason to try and convince you otherwise. But his decline in play the past 3 seasons would make a whole lot more sense if he does lie about his age as everyone in the league believes.

Edited February 15, 2010 by spotatl

[Admin]

niremetal- I literally have never seen anyone try and say they actually believe Zaza is his listed age. If you do then thats great and I have no reason to try and convince you otherwise. But his decline in play the past 3 seasons would make a whole lot more sense if he does lie about his age as everyone in the league believes.

I literally have never seen someone spew so hate towards Zaza.

First no team would want him as a starter, yeah that MIGHT be true but I guarantee he could start for a few teams in this league and put up better numbers than their current starter.

Then it's that he's way overpaid, yeah a young 7' 275 lb center that not long ago averaged 12/8 in consecutive seasons as a starter is waaaay overpaid at 4.5 million per over the next 2 years.

To top it off now he's lying about his age. And really, EVERYONE in the league believes that he does lie about his age? Are you really willing to make such an asinine statement just to further your hate rally?

[spotatl]

Zaza has been terrible 2 of the last 3 years. No team wants him as a starter. He can be a stopgap starter but with the way he has played 2 of the past 3 seasons no one sees him as a starter. I'm sorry to be the one to point out the brutally obvious to you. Hell- even Hawks fans don't even want Zaza as a backup anymore yet you think teams want him as a starter?!

And I really didn't know that there were people here who weren't aware that it was an open secret that Zaza is older than his listed age. How is it possible you guys have never heard this before?

[spotatl]

Here's a hint for you guys- The Hawks gave Zaza more than any other team in the league thought he was worth (unless you think he took less money to remain with the Hawks), and now he has regressed in a major way. If he were a FA right now he wouldn' t get nearly as much money as he did. I find it fascinating that you still think he is a trade asset. The problem with giving a mediocre player a 4 year guaranteed contract is that if they regress at all then you are stuck with a bad player on a 4 year guaranteed contract.

Edited February 15, 2010 by spotatl

[AHF]

Here's a hint for you guys- The Hawks gave Zaza more than any other team in the league thought he was worth (unless you think he took less money to remain with the Hawks)

I am not sure how you arrive at that conclusion. The three possibilities are (1) Atlanta overpaid Zaza, (2) Atlanta paid Zaza his exact market figure, and (3) Atlanta got a deal for Zaza. This should be based on his status at the time the deal was signed - not anything that has happened since. Why do you reach the conclusion that we overpaid for Zaza? Are there comparables that you think got significantly lower priced deals?

Zaza claims he was 25 when the deal was signed. Assume his age is off by 3 years and let me know the 28 year old 7 footers with similar performance records who signed for significantly less and I will start being on board with the notion that we meaningfully overpaid Zaza.

[spotatl]

I would have easily rather had Brandon Bass compared to Zaza and he signed for less money than Zaza did. David Andersen signed for less money than Zaza and the Hawks had his rights already.

Even when coming off a solid season the hawks offered zaza the most money. As I said- unless you believe that Zaza turned down more money from someone else to sign with the Hawks (which I haven't heard anything at all about) then the Hawks offered him more. (The winners curse)

If Zaza had maintained his play from last season then he would have been a reasonable contract and he would have trade value. You could have looked at 2 seasons ago as a total fluke and he absolutely could be traded. But with how poorly he has played this season, now its last year that looks like a typical contract year fluke. If this season (and 2 seasons ago) are his actual baseline value then he is VERY overpaid.

Edited February 15, 2010 by spotatl

[AHF]

I would have easily rather had Brandon Bass compared to Zaza and he signed for less money than Zaza did. David Andersen signed for less money than Zaza and the Hawks had his rights already.

So no one with comparable size (Brandon Bass - 6'8'') and track record (zero NBA games played for Andersen [marginally worse PER this year than Zaza]), huh? Andersen is doubly not a comparable for purposes of free market value since he wasn't even a free agent.

Even when coming off a solid season the hawks offered zaza the most money. As I said- unless you believe that Zaza turned down more money from someone else to sign with the Hawks (which I haven't heard anything at all about) then the Hawks offered him more. (The winners curse)

I haven't heard that he even entertained negotiations with anyone else.

If Zaza had maintained his play from last season then he would have been a reasonable contract and he would have trade value. You could have looked at 2 seasons ago as a total fluke and he absolutely could be traded. But with how poorly he has played this season, now its last year that looks like a typical contract year fluke. If this season (and 2 seasons ago) are his actual baseline value then he is VERY overpaid.

I would still like to see a few comparables but agree that if Zaza plays well below his career averages for the life of his deal it is much less attractive. You are talking about weighing a 1.5 year period over his 7 year career totals, though. It just seems to me that a 7 footer with a 9-10 rp36 doesn't seem completely out of line at 4.5M/year.

[spotatl]

Those were just the 2 names off the top of my head that I personally would have preferred in the offseason to what Zaza signed for- and that was without the benefit of hindsight. Chris Andersen signed for less than Zaza and is the better player. Hell- I think Shelden Williams provides most of what Zaza does and he signed for the league minimum. Channing Frye is a better value than Zaza. Gortat got more money than Zaza and I'd easily trade Zaza right now for him.

Honestly- what comparables would you like to use to show that you think the Hawks got a reasonable value in Zaza? What centers do you think right now another team would trade straight up for Zaza assuming that both teams had expring contracts to use as fillers in either direction. Seriously... I just don't see where you think Zaza has trade value- I go down the list and Its just "No... No... No... " http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/hollinger/statistics?sort=per&qual=true&pos=c&seasonType=2

Edited February 15, 2010 by spotatl

[EazyRoc]

I did not do the math yet in regards to the salaries matching, but could we move Marvin Williams for Kirk Hinrich ? It wouldn't be too hard to find a SF that rebounds and spreads the floor.

[AHF]

Those were just the 2 names off the top of my head that I personally would have preferred in the offseason to what Zaza signed for- and that was without the benefit of hindsight. Chris Andersen signed for less than Zaza and is the better player.

Andersen would have been a great signing. Anyone who doesn't think he is a fantastic - way above par - value is insane.

Hell- I think Shelden Williams provides most of what Zaza does and he signed for the league minimum.

Shelden didn't play for a loser team last season and didn't play under Woody when we had a heavy financial incentive to develop him. Why would we want him back with Woody coaching?

Channing Frye is a better value than Zaza.

Frye had a PER two of the last three years lower than Zaza's career low - including both this season and Zaza's rookie year. Frye didn't have nearly the bargaining position that Zaza did.

Gortat got more money than Zaza and I'd easily trade Zaza right now for him.

Everyone wanted Gortat. His salary was artificially low due to lack of available dollars for teams above the MLE. So this doesn't surprise me.

Honestly- what comparables would you like to use to show that you think the Hawks got a reasonable value in Zaza?

There are a lot of bad contracts given to big men. In no way does Zaza stick out as a bad contract here - especially if his performance goes to career norms. The guy is underperforming this season but is hardly toxic like these big men on most of the other rosters in the league are if evaluated on their salary for this season vis-a-vis their production.

Samuel Dalembert - $12M+ (16.7 PER)

Erick Dampier - $12M+ (14.7 PER)

Zydrunas Ilgauskas - $11.5M (12.9 PER)

Darko Milicic - $7.5M (12.2 PER)

Brad Miller - $12M+ (12.1 PER)

Zaza Pachulia - $4.5M (11.7 PER)

Ronny Turiaf - $4.15M (11.6 PER)* (not toxic - just the best comparable for Zaza)

Joel Pryzbilla - $6.9M (11.3 PER)* (not toxic but PER which was your sorted category is worse than Zaza despite being paid 50% more)

Dan Gadzuric - $7.5M (10.4 PER)

Kwame Brown - $4M (9.9 PER)

Jeff Foster - $6.7M (9.1 PER)

Tyson Chandler - $11.7M (9.6 PER)

Kurt Thomas - $3.8M (9.1 PER)

Mark Blount - $8.7M (8.7 PER)

Desagna Diop - $6M (8.4 PER)

Edward Najera - $3M (7.3 PER)

Brian Cardinal - $6.75M (6.8 PER)

Tony Battie - $6.6M (6.2 PER)

Brian Scalabrine - $3.4M (3.9 PER)

Fabricio Oberto - $2M (3.8 PER)

Brian Cook - $3.5M (0.9 PER)

Eddy Curry - $10.5M (-1.8 PER)

Jerome James - $6.6M 10 minutes played

* * * *

(I am not defending PER as a metric here, just using the link provided which sorted by PER).

Edited February 16, 2010 by AHF