Damn wait till you hear what Chad Ford had to say about the Hawks

[mrhonline]

Guards 6'7 or taller (in 3-pt era) who played at least 25,000 NBA minutes (oldest age with *consistent* PER of 15+):

Reggie Miller (39)

Clyde Drexler (35)

Vince Carter (33)

Dale Ellis (33)

Reggie Theus (32)

Jalen Rose (32)

Steve Smith (31)

Michael Finley (30)

***I excluded Magic Johnson because of his absence for a number of years in his 30's.***

Most big-minute, All-Star wings become "league average" players by age 32.

Total college + NBA minutes at said point in career:

Reggie Miller (56,763)

Clyde Drexler (46,364)

Vince Carter (35,190) *Current

Reggie Theus (34,490)

Michael Finley (32,299)

Jalen Rose (31,081)

Steve Smith (30,612)

Dale Ellis (29,162)

Most big-minute, All-Star wings become "league average" players as they climb over the 30,000 minute mark.

Joe Johnson:

Age: 29

Minutes: 27,695

Average minutes/season with Atlanta (past four seasons): ~3,200

Estimated minutes at year end: 29,000+

Estimated age when reaches Michael Finley (i.e., minutes from above): 30

Estimated age when reaches Vince Carter (i.e, minutes from above): 31

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For those of you worried about JJ's game declining, whose game is he most like . . . . Vince Carter or Paul Pierce?

Neither. He resembles Michael Finley more than either of those two.

You can't look at things in terms of age because he was only 20 when he entered the league. You have to look at things in terms of minutes played. Based on the experiences of several other taller guards, it is unreasonable to expect Joe Johnson to remain an an above average guard for more than three years after this season.

[TheNorthCydeRises]

Guards 6'7 or taller (in 3-pt era) who played at least 25,000 NBA minutes (oldest age with *consistent* PER of 15+):

Reggie Miller (39)

Clyde Drexler (35)

Vince Carter (33)

Dale Ellis (33)

Reggie Theus (32)

Jalen Rose (32)

Steve Smith (31)

Michael Finley (30)

***I excluded Magic Johnson because of his absence for a number of years in his 30's.***

Most big-minute, All-Star wings become "league average" players by age 32.

Total college + NBA minutes at said point in career:

Reggie Miller (56,763)

Clyde Drexler (46,364)

Vince Carter (35,190) *Current

Reggie Theus (34,490)

Michael Finley (32,299)

Jalen Rose (31,081)

Steve Smith (30,612)

Dale Ellis (29,162)

Most big-minute, All-Star wings become "league average" players as they climb over the 30,000 minute mark.

Joe Johnson:

Age: 29

Minutes: 27,695

Average minutes/season with Atlanta (past four seasons): ~3,200

Estimated minutes at year end: 29,000+

Estimated age when reaches Michael Finley (i.e., minutes from above): 30

Estimated age when reaches Vince Carter (i.e, minutes from above): 31

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Neither. He resembles Michael Finley more than either of those two.

You can't look at things in terms of age because he was only 20 when he entered the league. You have to look at things in terms of minutes played. Based on the experiences of several other taller guards, it is unreasonable to expect Joe Johnson to remain an an above average guard for more than three years after this season.

Yeah I saw that analysis last week done by that Chicago blog I think? And I think you have expounded on what he was talking about.

I do have a problem with equating PER to the effectiveness of a SG, because I don't think the average shooting guard in this league has a PER of 15. The average PER around the league of all players may be 15, but I would venture that the number is lower for SGs, simply because they don't get to stuff the stat sheet, and are usually judged by how well they shoot the basketball. To me, the PER stat is skewed toward those guys who can rebound at a high rate and shoot a high percentage from the field ( which is why you usually see big men/rebounding forwards at the top of the PER list, along with the high shot, high volume scorers ).

You take a guy like Ray Allen, who had the best shooting numbers of his career last year ( 48% FG - 41% 3FG - 96% FT . . . at age 33 ), but his PER was 17.3 ( only the 11th best PER of his 14 year career . . . and only 1.3 points higher than Marvin's 16 PER last season ). The major difference was his Usage %, which at 20.4%, was the lowest of his career before this year. When a player isn't used as much, his numbers usually drop ( see Marvin Williams again ). Now that drop could be due to diminishing skills, injuries that hamper what he can do physically, or the emergence or addition of other players who are viable scoring options.

And that's the first point I want to address concerning a JJ extension. JJ's usage as a player, especially in the next 3 years, is still going to be relatively high.

* Josh Smith doesn't look like he's ever going to develop a jumpshot, and may make a transition to becoming more of a Diaw-like point forward on offense.

* Horford has a chance to develop into a decent scorer, but I don't ever see him developing into a go-to scorer. I don't see a Carlos Boozer type scorer out of him, as long as he has to play center. Even if he played PF, he may not get to that level.

* Any hopes of Marvin becoming a main option type scorer is rapidly going out the window. He's a complimentary guy all the way.

* People had high hopes for Teague, but I don't know if he can even become as good as Speedy Claxton in his prime. His struggles in his rookie season say probably not.

* Crawford can and has been a #1 type scorer. An erratic one, but he can be. But his status on this squad will be in question after next year as well.

So until somebody steps up and can prove that they can be even close to a #1 option ( or a #2 option the caliber of Crawford ) . . or if we draft a scorer that rapidly blossoms . ., or trade for a guy who can be a main scorer . . JJ is going to have to be the guy not only in the immeadiate future, but maybe even beyond year 3. And if JJ is still your best scoring option on the team at age 31, his usage is still going to be in the low to mid 20% range.

In the case of Finley, it wasn't necessarily that his skills started to rapidly decline after age 31 or 32,000 minutes ( although it did some ), it was because Dirk Nowitzki rapidly developed into one of the most lethal scorers in the league. This dictated that Dirk get more and more looks, and Finley become a 2nd option scorer.

When Finley led the league in minutes played in the 2000 - 01 season ( at age 27 ), a 22 year old Dirk Nowitzki had already established himself into just as efficient ( if not more efficient ) of a scorer than Finley. At that time, Finley's usage was 24.9% with Dirk's being 23.8%. Flash forward 4 years later, and Finley ( at age 31 ) had seen his skills decline a little, but the amount of looks he got decreased dramatically, due to the emergence of the 26 year old Dirk. Dirk's usage was 28.7%. Finley had dropped all the way down to complimentary scorer usage ( 19.5% )

As of right now, JJ doesn't have that scorer ( outside of Crawford ), that could dictate that he get less shots and gets used less in the forseeable future. And his ability to create and make shots, especially the fadeaway jumper, will keep him being a viable scoring option for a long time. The only thing that can slow this dude down in the next 3 - 4 years, is a major injury or a bunch of nagging Iverson-like injuries . . . something that he's steered clear of for the most part of his career ( other than the face smash early in his career ). Even his calf injury that caused him to miss 30+ games, I think, was a management call to "tank the season". If push came to shove, he could've played through that.

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And I disagree that JJ is more like Finley. Now their circumstances, rise to stardom, and overall numbers are similar. Very similar. Damn near identical.

But their style of play as players are/were different. Even when JJ was in Phoenix, he didn't solely rely on Steve Nash to get him the ball in good spots to score the basketball. JJ was as much of a slasher as he was a catch and shoot guy in Phoenix. JJ has always been a player that has created his own offense to score, even more in our "true PG-less" system. Finley was more of your traditional SG, who relied on the system and the PG feeding him the ball, to get him good looks. Finley was extremely good at coming off curls and screens, and catching and shooting from midrange and deep. Finley was more of a poor man's Reggie Miller, with better athleticism and less of a pure jumper, than anything else.

When you consider style of play, JJ is much more comparable to Paul Pierce than he is to Finley. Both JJ and Pierce are guys who is athletic, but not freakishly athletic, that usually have to create their own offense to score, usually in the midrange. They both use their size to their advantage. They both basically take their time to score, not playing at a fast pace. Pierce is/was superior because of his innate ability to draw fouls ( or flopping to draw fouls ). Both can handle the ball and pass well enough to be the primary playmaker on their respective team. Both guys, when used in the post, are effective scorers and passers. Finley was a very good player, but he wasn't as versatile as JJ.

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Now the minutes played issue. JJ is going to have a career that will approach 37,000 - 40,000 minutes played by the end of his new contract. To play anything beyond that, and still be effective, he'll probably have to play off the ball and finish his career as a catch and shoot guy. To be honest, a lot of the guys named on that list, weren't nearly the physical specimen that JJ is, nor had the conditioning that he has. The reason why Miller was able to play at a relatively high level well into his 30s, was because of his conditioning.

It's his style of play that will lead to his longevity in this league. While we would like for him to draw more fouls and get to the FT line, the fact that he doesn't may preserve him for the next 5 - 7 years. As a scorer, he not only has the floater, he's developed the fadeaway jumper from as far as 20 feet. The fadeaway is one of Kobe's favorite shots and a shot that kept Jordan playing at a relatively high level, when he started to lose his athleticism.

The question for JJ, is when is he going to start suffering those nagging injuries that keep him out of the lineup? Year 3? Year 4? Year 5? If he pulls a Karl Malone, and virtually stays injury free, JJ can continue to be a 20 ppg - 5 rebs - 4 asst guy that shoots in the mid-40s FG for 3 - 5 years. Especially if the Hawks doesn't see or get a guy who can create and make his own shot as efficiently as JJ does. You give the dude a very good PG that can make him work less offensively, and his numbers could be even higher in the near future.

This is why if Chicago gets their hands on him, and teams him up with Derrick Rose, it's all over for us, without making a major trade.

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Finally . . the long term contract. And here's what people need to understand about that. When a guy is coming off of his rookie contract, and gets that next deal, the expectations are that he'll be at least as good, if not better, in the last year of the deal, than he was on the first year of his deal. At this point, he should be peaking, or close to peaking, as a player.

The 2nd big money contract is usually based on what a team thinks a person is worth NOW, and how his talent can help them NOW as a team, than what he'll be worth 5+ years from now as a player. He's getting paid based off of what people IMMEADIATELY expect from him right now. His demand as a player is highest right now, so the price people are willing to pay for his services will increase as well. This is why teams will sign a star player who is in his mid - late 20s to an expensive long term deal. And a lot of those big money guys toward the end of their contract, end up being "hired guns" for aspiring playoff or championship contenders, looking for that player to put them over the top or advance them further in the playoffs.

People are worried about the wrong thing, if they're worried about if JJ will be worth the money going into Year 4 and 5 of his contract, at age 32 and 33. His contract is actually more tradeable at that point in his career . . IF . . he's still a good, but not very good player. The question is . . is he worth the money NOW? Is he the type of player NOW that will help us make deep runs in the playoffs?

The alternative to not signing JJ, is to hope and pray you find a "diamond in the rough" type player, and him develop into that lead guy and possible all-star. Refusing to overpay for JJ, but signing 2 complimentary players, does not help the Hawks at all. If we don't re-sign him, someone like Horford or Smith needs to rapidly develop ( ala Danny Granger ). If the window of opportunity for the Hawks is within the next 1 - 3 years, this is the time to retain as many of our star players as possible, and add stars if need be.

But first, we need to see what he does in the playoffs. If he really steps his game up and leads us, the Hawks will do whatever possible to bring him back. If he plays lackluster ball, they'll probably let him go. I think he knows that his future contract will be determined by what he does from late April to late June.