Al Horford is gonna get a max contract.

[coachx]

I'm not going too in depth in this b/c there is a salary cap thread for people, who care to be informed, can read for themselves. Plus its discussed in detail each and every year.

Its important to note that under the current CBA the "max" a guy like Horford can get is much less then players like JJ, James, Bosh, Wade, etc. The reason is not b/c Horford is not as good as those guys. The reason is years of service puts you in different tiers as far as how much your max contract can be.

For instance........the max Smoove could have signed for was $16 or $17 mill b/c he only had 4 years of service. These are the only guys who can be restricted free agents.

James, Wade, JJ, Bosh, etc. have already been through their 1st contract, the restricted free agency process, and are now in the last year of their 2nd contract. So now they will be unrestricted free agents for the first time and the max contract they are able to get is now more then their last contract b/c the have been in the league longer. That is how the current CBA works.

Now who knows how the next CBA will be structured. Owners will fight for lower contracts with less guaranteed years but the players will fight to keep the status quo.

Edited April 13, 2010 by coachx

[coachx]

If both wanted the max then yes. There are only about 6,7 guys in the league that are really worth the max. imo, to be worth the max, you must be capable of taking your team to the playoffs each and every year no matter what, and sell tickets. In effect, you're paying your own contract. Joe, nor Al can do that. Joe a few yeras ago maybe, but not at this point....but what uis considered as the Max? 19? 20? 25? Nothing over 16 for either guy.

The max Horford can make is not $25 mill like it is for Kobe or James. The max for a guy with his years in the league is around $16 or $17 mill.

JJ is a different matter. He has more years of league services and that means he has a higher max contract. That might not be fair but that is how the current CBA is structured.

[TheNorthCydeRises]

EVERYONE would prefer not to give him the max. But I think its pretty likely that someone out there will offer him the max. Would you be willing to let Horford leave to avoid paying him the max? If you don't think he is worht the max but think someone else will offer it to him then the right plan is probably to trade him now. This is the same situation as the Hawks were in with Joe Johnson- if you aren't willing to pay him the max then he should have been traded already.

Exactly. Hopefully the word will get out around the league that we're going to match ANY OFFER for Horford. But the Hawks, depending on the new collective bargaining agreement that expires in 2011, may catch a break and not have to shell out big money for Horford. No telling what the owners and the players will squabble over, which may cause a strike, or a reduction in salaries for up and coming free agents.

[Guest]

Except again - I've never seen someone with Al's stats get a max contract. I don't think that's the way it should be, but it's the way it is. 14 and 10 guys have never been max players.

Anyway, the calculus under the new CBA is likely to be quite different than it is now. It's kind of pointless to speculate what Al's contract could look like, and it would be pretty stupid for the Hawks to sign Al this summer, given that the new CBA will likely drive down the market value for players across the league.

There isn't a threshold with one certain statistic in terms of offering someone a contract. Thats a little foolish, that you get to 18 ppg and then something clicks that you are now available to get a max contract? There is more than one variable in the equation for determining contract offers. I also doubt the function is a threshold model...

At the same time though I agree with your approach of waiting. We have a huge uncertainty with the upcoming CBA negotiations and Al's next contract borders the 2 CBAs (i.e. we could extend him in the current CBA or we could wait until the next CBA and extend him then, both scenarios we would hold exclusive rights to negotiating an extension). The downside of waiting is that we do open up to a scenario where a large offer sheet could be tendered, but at least then we know Horford will get market value where an extension we are only bidding against ourselves. Interesting situation, but thats a ways away how about we just enjoy the playoffs and in the summertime when this board will have downtime we can reopen this thread and get into a more heated/interesting discussion?

[spotatl]

both scenarios we would hold exclusive rights to negotiating an extension

While everyone believes this to be the case technically it isn't true. The new CBA could not have any restricted free agency if thats what the 2 sides agreed to. Everyone thinks that the players union is going to get crushed here and I do agree that it would be shocking if the Hawks didn't retain the Right of first refusal on Horford but it isn't certain.

[HawksFan87]

if joe is not worth the max, what makes you guys think Al is?? especially not with his numbers now, he's gonna have to up his points, among other things . for that to even be discussed... and let's be honest. Al was only a all star because he plays for us. If he was on a team that sucked, he would not have made it.. Smoove is still our most important/versatile player on this team..

[coachx]

if joe is not worth the max, what makes you guys think Al is?? especially not with his numbers now, he's gonna have to up his points, among other things . for that to even be discussed... and let's be honest. Al was only a all star because he plays for us. If he was on a team that sucked, he would not have made it.. Smoove is still our most important/versatile player on this team..

The max for Al is MUCH LESS then the max for JJ.

Players max contracts are based on how many year of service they have in the league and / or it being their 2nd or 3rd contract.

For instance. A 2nd rounder can become a free agent quicker then a 1 st rounder since most 2nd round picks are on 2 year rookie contracts but most 1st round picks are on 4 or 5 year rookie contracts.

You must have basic understanding of the CBA to understand how salaries work in the NBA.

When a player is negotiating their 2nd contract they are a restricted free agent and the max salary is less then it would be when they are negotiating their 3rd contract when they are then an unresticted free agent.

[Guest]

While everyone believes this to be the case technically it isn't true. The new CBA could not have any restricted free agency if thats what the 2 sides agreed to. Everyone thinks that the players union is going to get crushed here and I do agree that it would be shocking if the Hawks didn't retain the Right of first refusal on Horford but it isn't certain.

Notice how I said "extension" and not "contract". You are referring to the unlikely scenario that RFA is banished. That doesn't apply to negotiating an extension, the only things that would potentially change are the length of the extension, maximum value, and maximum value of raises.

Edited April 13, 2010 by hawksfanatic

[niremetal]

There isn't a threshold with one certain statistic in terms of offering someone a contract. Thats a little foolish, that you get to 18 ppg and then something clicks that you are now available to get a max contract? There is more than one variable in the equation for determining contract offers. I also doubt the function is a threshold model...

At the same time though I agree with your approach of waiting. We have a huge uncertainty with the upcoming CBA negotiations and Al's next contract borders the 2 CBAs (i.e. we could extend him in the current CBA or we could wait until the next CBA and extend him then, both scenarios we would hold exclusive rights to negotiating an extension). The downside of waiting is that we do open up to a scenario where a large offer sheet could be tendered, but at least then we know Horford will get market value where an extension we are only bidding against ourselves. Interesting situation, but thats a ways away how about we just enjoy the playoffs and in the summertime when this board will have downtime we can reopen this thread and get into a more heated/interesting discussion?

Come on, now. I wasn't seriously suggesting that 18ppg was a magic number. I admit my "not unless he averages 18ppg" might have led you to think that I was fixating on that as a magic number, but if you took the time to read the rest of my points, I clearly was not. My main point was that in the NBA, only people who score significantly more than Al does get max extensions, and used 18ppg as a threshold because no one who had failed to crack 18ppg has ever gotten a max contract. Al has never averaged more than 14.2ppg or 9.9rpg in a season. Players with those stats don't get max extensions - or at least they never have before. The lowest I've seen in terms of PPG is Dwight Howard's 17.6ppg - which is still a pretty significant step up from 14.2ppg. And Dwight was averaging more than 12rpg at the same time. Not to mention that since Dwight came straight out of HS, he was 2.5 years younger than Horford was at the same stage in his career.

To put it another way, if we signed Al Horford to a max extension, it would be unprecedented given his relatively modest statistics. Al's career high is 3.4ppg lower than the lowest player to have ever gotten a max extension, and that player was significantly younger and a significantly better rebounder than Al is. Of course - and I'm saying this for the third time now - I don't think that stats SHOULD be so dispositive in terms of salary, but a brief glance through the stat sheets indicates that they always have been.

[mrhonline]

Andrew Bogut. Andrew Bynum. Emeka Okafor.

Three players since 2005 who averaged something in the range of 14/10 in their 3rd or 4th seasons. All got deals making at least $12M/season, even with two of the three having injury concerns.

Unless the CBA is ripped apart, I still expect the most another team could offer him to be around $15M/season.

I do admit to exaggerating the topic a bit, but he's already to around $12M/season, and that's if he doesn't improve his scoring next season...

Edited April 13, 2010 by mrhonline

[Deeman]

CrawfultoCrawsome is psychic :no-no:

[niremetal]

Notice how I said "extension" and not "contract". You are referring to the unlikely scenario that RFA is banished. That doesn't apply to negotiating an extension, the only things that would potentially change are the length of the extension, maximum value, and maximum value of raises.

If I'm not mistaken, some of the CBA provisions pertaining to RFA are required to be written into players' rookie scale contracts, which means simply amending the CBA wouldn't necessarily end RFA. At this point, I don't think it can be abolished outright with respect to players with still-active contracts as long as the team picks up the options after the second and third years. Rather, I would think that the soonest it could be abolished is when the rookie scale contracts of the 2011 draft class expire in 2015.

I could be wrong about that, but I know that some CBA provisions are "grandfathered in" to the players' contracts so that future CBA amendments couldn't alter them as long as the contracts remain in force, and I think that key RFA provisions are among them.

Edited April 13, 2010 by niremetal

[HawksFan87]

The max for Al is MUCH LESS then the max for JJ.

Players max contracts are based on how many year of service they have in the league and / or it being their 2nd or 3rd contract.

For instance. A 2nd rounder can become a free agent quicker then a 1 st rounder since most 2nd round picks are on 2 year rookie contracts but most 1st round picks are on 4 or 5 year rookie contracts.

You must have basic understanding of the CBA to understand how salaries work in the NBA.

When a player is negotiating their 2nd contract they are a restricted free agent and the max salary is less then it would be when they are negotiating their 3rd contract when they are then an unresticted free agent.

I don't care if it's less or not, he is still NOT worth a max contract. period..

[exodus]

Andrew Bogut. Andrew Bynum. Emeka Okafor.

Three players since 2005 who averaged something in the range of 14/10 in their 3rd or 4th seasons. All got deals making at least $12M/season, even with two of the three having injury concerns.

Unless the CBA is ripped apart, I still expect the most another team could offer him to be around $15M/season.

I do admit to exaggerating the topic a bit, but he's already to around $12M/season, and that's if he doesn't improve his scoring next season...

Okafor was a free agent. How many offers did he get from other teams?

[Guest]

no one who had failed to crack 18ppg has ever gotten a max contract.

Well during 95-96 when there were no max contracts we certainly signed Deke to a contract that looked real similar to a max contract. Oh and wait, didn't we sign some bum named Joe Johnson who averaged 17.1 ppg, 16.7 ppg, 9.8, and 7.5 ppg in his first 4 years in the NBA to a max contract?

No need to throw out ridiculous claims of thresholds. Also no need to spew out ridiculous statements where you include a threshold because more than likely someone on this board is going to be able to dig up at least one instance where your threshold does not hold. Better to just ignore thresholds, try to construct arguments away from thresholds.

Also, talking about a "max" deal is a little silly in my mind. Instead, we should talk about the actual value of the contract. By definition, Rashard Lewis did not get a "max" deal but who on this board would claim that the ~$5 million less (guess on my part) total paid out to Rashard is that big of a difference in the grand scheme of things?

[Guest]

If I'm not mistaken, some of the CBA provisions pertaining to RFA are required to be written into players' rookie scale contracts, which means simply amending the CBA wouldn't necessarily end RFA. At this point, I don't think it can be abolished outright with respect to players with still-active contracts as long as the team picks up the options after the second and third years. Rather, I would think that the soonest it could be abolished is when the rookie scale contracts of the 2011 draft class expire in 2015.

I could be wrong about that, but I know that some CBA provisions are "grandfathered in" to the players' contracts so that future CBA amendments couldn't alter them as long as the contracts remain in force, and I think that key RFA provisions are among them.

Good point, I didn't think about this from the player's perspective I was only thinking about from the general structure of the league. You are probably right about this.

[mrhonline]

Okafor was a free agent. How many offers did he get from other teams?

Are you suggesting the Kittens gave him $72M because they felt like being generous?

[niremetal]

Andrew Bogut. Andrew Bynum. Emeka Okafor.

Three players since 2005 who averaged something in the range of 14/10 in their 3rd or 4th seasons. All got deals making at least $12M/season, even with two of the three having injury concerns.

Unless the CBA is ripped apart, I still expect the most another team could offer him to be around $15M/season.

I do admit to exaggerating the topic a bit, but he's already to around $12M/season, and that's if he doesn't improve his scoring next season...

Andrew Bogut. Andrew Bynum. Emeka Okafor.

Three players who did not get maximum contracts. :snowballfight:

All three had contracts that AVERAGED $12M-$14M per year. That's still a damned sight less than the $16M/yr average that max players from the same draft years got. Okafor's started at $9.5M and averaged $12M over 6 years. Bogut's was $12M/yr flat for 5 years. Bynum's was a 3-year deal starting at $12.5M and averaging $13.7M - and bear in mind that Bynum was more than 3 years younger than Horford was at the same stage in their respective careers.

Would I give Horford any of those contracts? Sure. But we can't pretend 3yr/$41M or 5yr/$60M is the same as 5yr/$80M, which is what a max extension would be.

[spotatl]

niremetal- the rules for Restricted free agency are part of the CBA- not part of the player's contracts.

[exodus]

Are you suggesting the Kittens gave him $72M because they felt like being generous?

No. I am saying that he did not get an offer from another team. Neither did Deng, Iggy, Biedrins or Gordon. Smith got an offer very late in the summer and it was a long way from the max.

And all that was before the stock market collapsed.