Al Horford is gonna get a max contract.

[Atlantaholic]

If he gets offered the max, than it means he is probably playing great for us. In which case, obviously I'd be wanting to match it.

[Joker]

His now+potential=More then worthy.

[AHF]

Just wanted to add this to the discussion of "maximum" players. IMO, while this argument is frequently made it shows a fundamental misunderstanding of the way the max contract provisions work:

"Lebron, Dwight, and Wade are maximum players. Player Y isn't as good as them. Therefore, Player Y isn't worth a maximum contract."

Maximum contracts in fact are just artificial limits on the salaries of players who would be paid more than the "maximum" in a free market environment. It is an artificial cap on salary. Hence, you should expect that a player who is worth exactly a "maximum" deal will be significantly less valuable than a guy like Lebron who could command significantly more than the "maximum" in a free market environment.

I don't mind arguments that Horford isn't worth as much salary as the maximum because he isn't worth that dollar figure but I get annoyed when I see someone arguing about who else is receiving the maximum and then arguing that a player shouldn't get the maximum because he isn't as good.

[spotatl]

Gay most likely won't get any offers from other teams

THIS is something we flat disagree on. Time will tell but I think that after you see what Gay gets offered hopefully it will cause you to reassess what Horford is likely to get.

Edited April 14, 2010 by spotatl

[exodus]

THIS is something we flat disagree on. Time will tell but I think that after you see what Gay gets offered hopefully it will cause you to reassess what Horford is likely to get.

The history of high profile RFAs is very clear. It is not debatable at all. Just look at all the offers that the high profile RFAs in Smith's class got.

Smith, Okafor, Biedrins, Gordon, Iggy and Deng got a combined total of 1 offer from another team and that was Smith's very modest offer from Memphis. And that was before the stock market collapse.

[spotatl]

And like I said- time will tell. I think you couldn't be any more wrong about Rudy Gay and time will tell. I'll be SHOCKED if he doesn't get a big offer from another team. You think I am wrong and I think you are wrong. We'll definitely see which one had the more accurate view of things going in.

Edited April 14, 2010 by spotatl

[mrhonline]

I think teams smell "blood in the water" with the Grizzlies. They have plenty of scorers and their acquisition of Ronnie Brewer (also a RFA) makes Gay as expendable as a 19ppg scorer can be, depending on the price tag.

I know that Minnesota is very interested in Gay. I expect him to easily get more than Josh Smith. (That really was a discount by current CBA standards, trade kicker notwithstanding).

[exodus]

And like I said- time will tell. I think you couldn't be any more wrong about Rudy Gay and time will tell. I'll be SHOCKED if he doesn't get a big offer from another team. You think I am wrong and I think you are wrong. We'll definitely see which one had the more accurate view of things going in.

It isn't a matter of opinion. The recent history of RFAs is that they generally don't get offers of any kind from other teams, let alone big ones. That is a fact, not an opinion.

People were making the exact same "blood in the water" argument about Smith. The fact that a new CBA is looming make things even tougher for this summer's RFAs.

Edited April 14, 2010 by exodus

[jhay610]

Just wanted to add this to the discussion of "maximum" players. IMO, while this argument is frequently made it shows a fundamental misunderstanding of the way the max contract provisions work:

"Lebron, Dwight, and Wade are maximum players. Player Y isn't as good as them. Therefore, Player Y isn't worth a maximum contract."

Maximum contracts in fact are just artificial limits on the salaries of players who would be paid more than the "maximum" in a free market environment. It is an artificial cap on salary. Hence, you should expect that a player who is worth exactly a "maximum" deal will be significantly less valuable than a guy like Lebron who could command significantly more than the "maximum" in a free market environment.

I don't mind arguments that Horford isn't worth as much salary as the maximum because he isn't worth that dollar figure but I get annoyed when I see someone arguing about who else is receiving the maximum and then arguing that a player shouldn't get the maximum because he isn't as good.

+1. If I were to spell out my feelings on this subject, this is what it would like. A player's "worth" in CBA terms is dictated by the market (what someone will pay for his services) and the constraints in place over that market (team and individual salary caps), not some arbitrary eyeball assessment of X versus Y.

[spotatl]

Exodus- why do I get the feeling that even if Gay gets a big offer this offseason its not going to cause you to reassess anything?

[mrhonline]

Exodus- why do I get the feeling that even if Gay gets a big offer this offseason its not going to cause you to reassess anything?

Because he doesn't distinguish between teams publicly bidding for a player and the private discussions had with agents that force teams to pay more than they would otherwise.

[exodus]

Exodus- why do I get the feeling that even if Gay gets a big offer this offseason its not going to cause you to reassess anything?

First of all you didn't read or understand my quote. I said Gay most likely wouldn't get an offer, not that he definitely wouldn't.

KK can beat AA heads up in poker but that doesn't change the fact that the odds heavily favor AA.

The undeniable fact is that in recent history it is extremely rare for a RFA to get a big offer from another team. it is not arguable.

Because he doesn't distinguish between teams publicly bidding for a player and the private discussions had with agents that force teams to pay more than they would otherwise.

Mr H-You are talking about yourself there, not me. You are the one that is constantly speculating about behind the scenes offers as if they are the same as written offer sheets.

I do distinguish between the two. You don't.

Edited April 14, 2010 by exodus

[spotatl]

So I was right in saying that Rudy Gay getting a big offer wouldn't cause you to reassess anything else in this thread?

Personally I like predictive value. If Rudy Gay doesn't get any offers then I'll fully admit that I was wrong and it definitely would cause me to reassess my opinion of what Horford can expect when he hits FA. If Rudy Gay gets a big offer them to me it means that you were fundamentally misunderstanding the situation.

In situations where teams think that any offer would be matched, offer sheets are indeed rare. But when a team can add a young allstart caliber player wihtout giving up talent then I think they jump at the chance. To me Kmart is the perfect example- he was maxed out GLADLY for 7 years even though he wasn't a major force on offense. And I do think that Rudy Gay will be a great test case for which one of us understands the situation better.

Edited April 14, 2010 by spotatl

[exodus]

So I was right in saying that Rudy Gay getting a big offer wouldn't cause you to reassess anything else in this thread?

Personally I like predictive value. If Rudy Gay doesn't get any offers then I'll fully admit that I was wrong and it definitely would cause me to reassess my opinion of what Horford can expect when he hits FA. If Rudy Gay gets a big offer them to me it means that you were fundamentally misunderstanding the situation.

In situations where teams think that any offer would be matched, offer sheets are indeed rare. But when a team can add a young allstart caliber player wihtout giving up talent then I think they jump at the chance. To me Kmart is the perfect example- he was maxed out GLADLY for 7 years even though he wasn't a major force on offense. And I do think that Rudy Gay will be a great test case for which one of us understands the situation better.

Wrong. Most RFAs in recent history have not gotten offers from other teams. That is a fact.

Just because one RFA gets an offer this summer that does not change the fact that in recent history most RFAs do not get offers. My understanding of the situation is clear. You either don't understand the situation or don't understand what i have said.

The fact that you have to go all the way back to the 2000 draft class just shows how rare it is for a RFA to get a big offer. You might as well try to say i am wrong when i say the earth is round.

[spotatl]

You are looking at RFA's overall to say that you don't think Horford will get a big offer in FA. You also would be very surprised if Rudy Gay got any offer in FA. To me I think you are completely missing the point because there are specific circumstances where RFA's do get big offers and i think that both Rudy Gay and Horford fall into that category. As I said- i'm right now willing to predict that Rudy Gay does get a big offer this season. I am predicting that he will based on past precedent while you are predicting he won't based on how you are interpreting past precedent. I think your view that Horford is unlikely to get a big offer as a RFA will look laughable once you see what Rudy gay gets but as I have said many times time will tell. Thats the great thing about predictive value. We both have theories of what happens with RFA's and soon enough one of us will look really foolish.

Edited April 14, 2010 by spotatl

[niremetal]

You are looking at RFA's overall to say that you don't think Horford will get a big offer in FA. You also would be very surprised if Rudy Gay got any offer in FA. To me I think you are completely missing the point because there are specific circumstances where RFA's do get big offers and i think that both Rudy Gay and Horford fall into that category. As I said- i'm right now willing to predict that Rudy Gay does get a big offer this season. I am predicting that he will based on past precedent while you are predicting he won't based on how you are interpreting past precedent. I think your view that Horford is unlikely to get a big offer as a RFA will look laughable once you see what Rudy gay gets but as I have said many times time will tell. Thats the great thing about predictive value. We both have theories of what happens with RFA's and soon enough one of us will look really foolish.

Personally, I don't think either of you will look foolish based on whether or not some team offers Rudy a big contract. I do think that you will foolish if you continue to use bandwidth continuing this argument :beathorse:

[exodus]

You are looking at RFA's overall to say that you don't think Horford will get a big offer in FA. You also would be very surprised if Rudy Gay got any offer in FA. To me I think you are completely missing the point because there are specific circumstances where RFA's do get big offers and i think that both Rudy Gay and Horford fall into that category. As I said- i'm right now willing to predict that Rudy Gay does get a big offer this season. I am predicting that he will based on past precedent while you are predicting he won't based on how you are interpreting past precedent. I think your view that Horford is unlikely to get a big offer as a RFA will look laughable once you see what Rudy gay gets but as I have said many times time will tell. Thats the great thing about predictive value. We both have theories of what happens with RFA's and soon enough one of us will look really foolish.

Wrong again. You are basing nothing on past precedent. Past precedent clearly shows that a swingman of Gay's stature is unlikely to get a big offer. You have not shown one example that would show otherwise.

On the other hand i have plenty of past precedent to back up my view. Iggy and Deng come quickly to mind.

[spotatl]

Dude- maybe we are using different terms here. How on earth can you not consider Iguodala getting 6 years and 80 million a big offer? How is Deng getting 6 years and 71 million not a big offer? Do you really think that other teams were only offering the MLE and they just asked nicely to get massive contracts? You are aware that teams can offer RFA's contracts without signing them to an offersheet right?

Based on past precedent I think its brutally obvious that Gay is going to get a big offer. You disagree with this- time will tell.

Edited April 14, 2010 by spotatl

[exodus]

Dude- maybe we are using different terms here. How on earth can you not consider Iguodala getting 6 years and 80 million a big offer? How is Deng getting 6 years and 71 million not a big offer? Do you really think that other teams were only offering the MLE and they just asked nicely to get massive contracts? You are aware that teams can offer RFA's contracts without signing them to an offersheet right?

Based on past precedent I think its brutally obvious that Gay is going to get a big offer. You disagree with this- time will tell.

Please post any link that shows Deng or Iggy getting an offer from another team.

[spotatl]

You are joking right? You think that Iguodala had the choice of taking 6 years and 80 million dollars or taking the 1 year QO and thats it because no other teams were interested? The Sixers paid him what it took to keep him. I have no clue how in your world 6 years and 80 million dollars isn't a huge offer. I should have listened to Mrhonline when he said that you didn't understand that there could be offers that weren't offersheets.

Time will tell. Clearly it doesn't do any good to try and explain this to you now. I'll just wait until after Gay gets his contract to explain it again to you and maybe then you will be more open to why it happened when you weren't expecting it to.

Edited April 14, 2010 by spotatl