Bret Lagree's brilliant blog on Joe Johnson.

[Guest]

Bret's thinking is flawed in so many areas. He cites that his defense is down, but he also knows ( and says ) that JJ was asked to guard PGs, as well as SGs and SFs. Even a guy like Kobe isn't asked to guard PGs on a nightly basis ( although he does step up to the plate and do it sometimes )

How is that different from past years? Joe has always guarded the best players, its not like this year was unique. I don't see how Joe defensive role has changed, but his performance on defense has declined. That shows its not from a change in defensive role (since that didn't change) so what else could be the cause of a decline?

[TheNorthCydeRises]

I agree with Diesel. We can't just let Joe go for nothing. We don't have the cap room to bring in anyone close to his production. I'm not opposed to keeping him or trading him but the absolute worst thing we could do is lose him for nothing.

I wouldn't say that's the absolute worse thing. The worse thing would be to trade him for a bad, but expensive player. Like Emeka Okafor. But you're basically right. I'm all for re-signing JJ ( even overpaying him to a certain extent ).

But if we can't get him to re-sign, we need to get something of good quality in a sign and trade that will help us. And not a backup player. It has to be a starter quality player that can help us. Otherwise, they should let him walk and take their chances via the draft and free agency in 2011.

[TheNorthCydeRises]

How is that different from past years? Joe has always guarded the best players, its not like this year was unique. I don't see how Joe defensive role has changed, but his performance on defense has declined. That shows its not from a change in defensive role (since that didn't change) so what else could be the cause of a decline?

Ummmm . . . Mike Bibby perhaps? Jamal Crawford? The fact that he has to play 2 positions on offense and guard 3 positions on defense throughout the course of a game?

Let's be real about this situation. We couldn't rely on Bibby and Crawford to even slow down people at times. And with them in the game, that meant that most of the time, Marvin was out of the game. So JJ had to match up with the best offensive player if he played PG, SG, or SF. At least when we had Flip here, he could at least stay with the PG, while JJ played SG, and Marvin played SF. This year, we had no chance to even do that. JJ was trying to guard people much quicker than him, while Smoove and Horford was left to try to defend that player once he got past either JJ, and especially Bibby and Crawford.

Asking JJ to slow down lightning quick players like Stephen Curry illustrates just how bad our PG defensive situation is. Hell . . in that game @ Golden St, he had to guard Curry and Ellis, AND he played a little PF offensively in that game. He was asked to score the points offensively when Crawford and Smoove started to sell us out in that 4th quarter, plus stop Curry. Not even Wade and Kobe are asked to do all of that in a game.

[Guest]

Ummmm . . . Mike Bibby perhaps? Jamal Crawford? The fact that he has to play 2 positions on offense and guard 3 positions on defense throughout the course of a game?

Let's be real about this situation. We couldn't rely on Bibby and Crawford to even slow down people at times. And with them in the game, that meant that most of the time, Marvin was out of the game. So JJ had to match up with the best offensive player if he played PG, SG, or SF. At least when we had Flip here, he could at least stay with the PG, while JJ played SG, and Marvin played SF. This year, we had no chance to even do that. JJ was trying to guard people much quicker than him, while Smoove and Horford was left to try to defend that player once he got past either JJ, and especially Bibby and Crawford.

Asking JJ to slow down lightning quick players like Stephen Curry illustrates just how bad our PG defensive situation is. Hell . . in that game @ Golden St, he had to guard Curry and Ellis, AND he played a little PF offensively in that game. He was asked to score the points offensively when Crawford and Smoove started to sell us out in that 4th quarter, plus stop Curry. Not even Wade and Kobe are asked to do all of that in a game.

So before Mike Bibby and Jamal Crawford were here, Joe only guarded shooting guards? That is just flat out wrong and you should know it. There hasn't been any fundamental change in who Joe has guarded throughout his time on the Hawks. We have always had a deficiency in quick PGs. Were Anthony Johnson and T-Lue any different from a defensive standpoint of Bibby and JC?

[99PROBL3MS]

Ummmm . . . Mike Bibby perhaps? Jamal Crawford? The fact that he has to play 2 positions on offense and guard 3 positions on defense throughout the course of a game?

Let's be real about this situation. We couldn't rely on Bibby and Crawford to even slow down people at times. And with them in the game, that meant that most of the time, Marvin was out of the game. So JJ had to match up with the best offensive player if he played PG, SG, or SF. At least when we had Flip here, he could at least stay with the PG, while JJ played SG, and Marvin played SF. This year, we had no chance to even do that. JJ was trying to guard people much quicker than him, while Smoove and Horford was left to try to defend that player once he got past either JJ, and especially Bibby and Crawford.

Asking JJ to slow down lightning quick players like Stephen Curry illustrates just how bad our PG defensive situation is. Hell . . in that game @ Golden St, he had to guard Curry and Ellis, AND he played a little PF offensively in that game. He was asked to score the points offensively when Crawford and Smoove started to sell us out in that 4th quarter, plus stop Curry. Not even Wade and Kobe are asked to do all of that in a game.

I agree. This team has asked JJ to do a lot. Be the primary ballhandler. Be the primary playmaker/distributor. Be the best defender. Be the leading scorer. etc.

[Crank]

Ummmm . . . Mike Bibby perhaps? Jamal Crawford? The fact that he has to play 2 positions on offense and guard 3 positions on defense throughout the course of a game?

Let's be real about this situation. We couldn't rely on Bibby and Crawford to even slow down people at times. And with them in the game, that meant that most of the time, Marvin was out of the game. So JJ had to match up with the best offensive player if he played PG, SG, or SF. At least when we had Flip here, he could at least stay with the PG, while JJ played SG, and Marvin played SF. This year, we had no chance to even do that. JJ was trying to guard people much quicker than him, while Smoove and Horford was left to try to defend that player once he got past either JJ, and especially Bibby and Crawford.

Asking JJ to slow down lightning quick players like Stephen Curry illustrates just how bad our PG defensive situation is. Hell . . in that game @ Golden St, he had to guard Curry and Ellis, AND he played a little PF offensively in that game. He was asked to score the points offensively when Crawford and Smoove started to sell us out in that 4th quarter, plus stop Curry. Not even Wade and Kobe are asked to do all of that in a game.

oh please just stop with the excuses its pretty sickening as i recall against GS they went with a 3 guard lineup in Watson,Ellis ,Curry for most of the game so of course he had to guard all 3 positions as they went small early and moved there guards around .

JJ didnt match up with the best offensive play all the time again its just pathetic all he had to do was simply guard his man like the last game against the Pacers when Brandon Rush of all people came out lighting him up . Of course youre gonna say JJ had to guard that offensive giant Earl Watson ? against the Heat Carlo Arroyo ? there were plenty of times when JJ just got torched and Crawford and Bibby did as well in fact everyone on our team got torched at various times throughout the year but only one guy is saying pay me like a top 10 player.

excuses excuses excuses

[niremetal]

So before Mike Bibby and Jamal Crawford were here, Joe only guarded shooting guards? That is just flat out wrong and you should know it. There hasn't been any fundamental change in who Joe has guarded throughout his time on the Hawks. We have always had a deficiency in quick PGs. Were Anthony Johnson and T-Lue any different from a defensive standpoint of Bibby and JC?

There is some truth to what he said - namely that Woody has less hesitation about asking Flip to guard quick PGs than he did with Crawford. Lineups featuring Flip/JJ allowed JJ to match up with opposing SGs more often than Craw/JJ did.

Edited May 21, 2010 by niremetal

[Diesel]

Joe has continually been the focus of opposing defenses every year he has been here. Its not like all of the sudden he is being double-teamed now. The "statheads" do account for this. If how opposing defenses approach Joe had changed then you might have a point as to why we see declining stats. But we haven't seen that, so you are attacking something that the "statheads" don't dispute. Joe being the focus of other defenses is accounted for because all statistics are based off of how Joe performs given this team.

If Joe had declining stats and one year he was not double-teamed then the next year he was double-teamed then you could make a case that its the double-team that caused the decline. But Joe may have actually been double-teamed less this year than last because Horford improved offensively and Jamal was an upgrade over Flip. If anything, double-teams went down for Joe if not stayed the same. Yet we see declining statistics.

The problem is as you called it. Joe had the ball less. But was still the focus of the defense. It's expected that if Joe is the focus of defenses and Joe has the ball in his hands less, that he would have declining stats. Our Iso offense dictates that. Craw is another Iso player added to Woody's mix. So now we have Iso^2. That had an effect on Joe's offense. We needed a better PG or system that would allow us to take advantage of these guys more efficiently than just seeing who can go 1 on 5 the best.

[Guest]

There is some truth to what he said - namely that Woody has less hesitation about asking Flip to guard quick PGs than he did with Crawford. Lineups featuring Flip/JJ allowed JJ to match up with opposing SGs more often than Craw/JJ did.

I would be skeptical of that especially since we are considering the regular season and not the postseason.

But let's entertain the idea that this is true for Flip, he was superior defensively and actually changed how Joe defended other teams. That is 1 year, we can still observe the year following that and the 3 leading up. Those years Joe played a similar defensive role. Yet we still see decline in defensive production. And if it were true for the 1 year of having Flip, we should have seen an uptick in Joe's defensive productivity that year in contrast to the previous year. Did we notice this? As far as I know, its been a consistent decline which implies it isn't due to some change in defensive scheming but its due to defensive ability.

[Crank]

There is some truth to what he said - namely that Woody has less hesitation about asking Flip to guard quick PGs than he did with Crawford. Lineups featuring Flip/JJ allowed JJ to match up with opposing SGs more often than Craw/JJ did.

There is little truth to it because the fact is that we played a SWITCHING DEFENSE so when you feel both players can guard either position you dont worry about it .

If you watch the games closely the majority of the time our perimeter players grabbed the nearest perimeter player to them because they knew they were switching anyway.

In the 4th quarter Craw was matched up against Nash,Rose,Rondo etc all the time . On a key possession Woody would use JJ but for the most part in the 4th qtr they just grabbed whoever .

JJ played the fewest amount of mpg since he arrived in ATL he simply did not have as good of a season as was expected and it has nothing to do with anyone else ..

[Guest]

The problem is as you called it. Joe had the ball less. But was still the focus of the defense. It's expected that if Joe is the focus of defenses and Joe has the ball in his hands less, that he would have declining stats. Our Iso offense dictates that. Craw is another Iso player added to Woody's mix. So now we have Iso^2. That had an effect on Joe's offense. We needed a better PG or system that would allow us to take advantage of these guys more efficiently than just seeing who can go 1 on 5 the best.

I don't know what problem you are referring to. My response to your post was to clear up your false accusations about "statheads" and how they don't account for things. They do account for them, I wasn't responding to any actually statistics about Joe just that your claims about "statheads" is ignorant of what "statheads" are actually doing. Everything is fixed upon the coach/system. There isn't any conjectures about Joe outside of the given coach/system.

[Diesel]

So before Mike Bibby and Jamal Crawford were here, Joe only guarded shooting guards? That is just flat out wrong and you should know it. There hasn't been any fundamental change in who Joe has guarded throughout his time on the Hawks. We have always had a deficiency in quick PGs. Were Anthony Johnson and T-Lue any different from a defensive standpoint of Bibby and JC?

I wouldn't say that is the problem. I think the problem is over the past few years, PGs have become faster and score more and we don't have the players to guard them. Plus, Josh Smith has been less of a force defensively (on the save).

In essence, there are more Jennings, Roses, Collisons etc.. that we play each night.

IN 2006,

Offensive Rating

1. Steve Nash-PHO 123.7

2. Chauncey Billups-DET 123.1

3. Dirk Nowitzki-DAL 122.8

4. Kevin Martin-SAC 120.0

5. Jason Terry-DAL 118.9

These were the top rated offensive players...

East

Gilbert Arenas

Chauncey Billups

Chris Bosh

Caron Butler

Vince Carter

Richard Hamilton

Dwight Howard

LeBron James

Joe Johnson

Jason Kidd

Jermaine O'Neal

Shaquille O'Neal

Dwyane Wade

West

Ray Allen

Carmelo Anthony

Carlos Boozer

Kobe Bryant

Tim Duncan

Kevin Garnett

Josh Howard

Allen Iverson

Shawn Marion

Tracy McGrady

Yao Ming

Steve Nash

Dirk Nowitzki

Mehmet Okur

Tony Parker

Amare Stoudemire

These were your allstars.

1st Team

LaMarcus Aldridge

Andrea Bargnani

Randy Foye

Jorge Garbajosa

Rudy Gay

Brandon Roy

2nd Team

Walter Herrmann

Paul Millsap

Adam Morrison

Rajon Rondo

Craig Smith

Tyrus Thomas

Marcus Williams

These were your all rookie teams.

Compare that to 2010...

Offensive Rating

1. Nene Hilario-DEN 124.3

2. J.J. Redick-ORL 123.2

3. Chris Paul-NOH 121.9

4. Al Horford-ATL 121.4

5. Marc Gasol-MEM 121.3

Offensive rating.

East

Chris Bosh

Kevin Garnett

Al Horford

Dwight Howard

Allen Iverson

LeBron James

Joe Johnson

David Lee

Paul Pierce

Rajon Rondo

Derrick Rose

Dwyane Wade

Gerald Wallace

West

Carmelo Anthony

Chauncey Billups

Kobe Bryant

Tim Duncan

Kevin Durant

Pau Gasol

Chris Kaman

Jason Kidd

Steve Nash

Dirk Nowitzki

Chris Paul

Zach Randolph

Brandon Roy

Amare Stoudemire

Deron Williams

1st Team

Darren Collison

Stephen Curry

Tyreke Evans

Taj Gibson

Brandon Jennings

2nd Team

DeJuan Blair

Jonny Flynn

James Harden

Jonas Jerebko

Marcus Thornton

Notice how much more the guard position is being improved.

[AHF]

I would be skeptical of that especially since we are considering the regular season and not the postseason.

But let's entertain the idea that this is true for Flip, he was superior defensively and actually changed how Joe defended other teams. That is 1 year, we can still observe the year following that and the 3 leading up. Those years Joe played a similar defensive role. Yet we still see decline in defensive production. And if it were true for the 1 year of having Flip, we should have seen an uptick in Joe's defensive productivity that year in contrast to the previous year. Did we notice this? As far as I know, its been a consistent decline which implies it isn't due to some change in defensive scheming but its due to defensive ability.

Assuming hawksanatic's assumption about consistent decline is right, I look at it the same way he does. JJ is still very important to our team defensively but his role has been similar enough that a consistent decline in his defensive numbers likely shows a decline in his defensive ability over that time and is not a good indicator for the future. Of course, I don't expect problems for JJ defensively any time soon and expect that whether he stays in Atlanta or goes somewhere else for his responsibility for guarding PGs to significantly lessen in the immediate future and going forward in his career.

[niremetal]

I would be skeptical of that especially since we are considering the regular season and not the postseason.

But let's entertain the idea that this is true for Flip, he was superior defensively and actually changed how Joe defended other teams. That is 1 year, we can still observe the year following that and the 3 leading up. Those years Joe played a similar defensive role. Yet we still see decline in defensive production. And if it were true for the 1 year of having Flip, we should have seen an uptick in Joe's defensive productivity that year in contrast to the previous year. Did we notice this? As far as I know, its been a consistent decline which implies it isn't due to some change in defensive scheming but its due to defensive ability.

Assuming hawksanatic's assumption about consistent decline is right, I look at it the same way he does. JJ is still very important to our team defensively but his role has been similar enough that a consistent decline in his defensive numbers likely shows a decline in his defensive ability over that time and is not a good indicator for the future. Of course, I don't expect problems for JJ defensively any time soon and expect that whether he stays in Atlanta or goes somewhere else for his responsibility for guarding PGs to significantly lessen in the immediate future and going forward in his career.

Fair enough. This is why I said "there is some truth" rather than "he's right." I don't doubt that JJ's ability to cover PGs has declined in the past few years. That's expected when you hit age 27 or so in the NBA and your athleticism starts to go. I think that if we see a defense where JJ's main job is to cover SGs or SFs (which is actually the position I think he is best suited to defend given his length and strength), he'll be more effective. Again, I've rarely found fault with his defense when he's matched up against opposing swingmen.

I also think that ALL our players' defensive efficiency was reduced because of the switching D. It's hard to get into a 'defensive rhythm' when you cover a PG for 2 plays, then a PFoff a switch the next play, and then a different set of players altogether after substitutions are made. As with most things defensive, this is all very impressionistic. Tough to say until we see these players in a different defensive system.

[Diesel]

Fair enough. This is why I said "there is some truth" rather than "he's right." I don't doubt that JJ's ability to cover PGs has declined in the past few years. That's expected when you hit age 27 or so in the NBA and your athleticism starts to go. I think that if we see a defense where JJ's main job is to cover SGs or SFs (which is actually the position I think he is best suited to defend given his length and strength), he'll be more effective. Again, I've rarely found fault with his defense when he's matched up against opposing swingmen.

I also think that ALL our players' defensive efficiency was reduced because of the switching D. It's hard to get into a 'defensive rhythm' when you cover a PG for 2 plays, then a PFoff a switch the next play, and then a different set of players altogether after substitutions are made. As with most things defensive, this is all very impressionistic. Tough to say until we see these players in a different defensive system.

What the switching defense allowed to happen was for teams to dial up the matchups that they wanted. We noticed Woody's only adjustment was to put Joe on the guy who was killing us and move out of the switching defense.

[NJHAWK]

We gave up close to 0 ppg in Acie Law and Speedy Clank and got an 18 point scorer in return. I would imagine Jcraw had something to do with Joe/Marv and Bibbys stats dropping. Not just the points but possessions dominated and shots.

[mrhonline]

By the way, I looked at the hoopdata shot locations data to find the two players with most similar shot selection (per 40 minutes) to Joe:

Kobe Bryant

Monta Ellis

No conclusions, just thought it was interesting. It was pretty easy to narrow the list down to guys who take a lot of shots in the <10 feet category while also taking a lot of threes. Once you filter out guys whose perimeter 2-pt jumpshots are being created by others, you end up with only Ellis, JJ, and Bryant.

Both Monta and Kobe are better at the rim than Joe, while JJ was the best three-point shooter.