Steve Belkin, looks to have been right.

[Brotha2ThaNite]

I was just thinking....

Wasn't the reason Belkin didn't want JJ was because he didn't think he was a #1 type NBA player, and he was not worth over paying for?

What we as fans/Atlanta media were saying, "you need to over pay for JJ to get other star NBA players wanting to come to play for us....."

Well, what star players have we gotten from FA to play with us????

Don't get me wrong, if we lose JJ it could be a very big step backwards but was Belkin right? I say yes.

[AHF]

I was just thinking....

Wasn't the reason Belkin didn't want JJ was because he didn't think he was a #1 type NBA player, and he was not worth over paying for?

What we as fans/Atlanta media were saying, "you need to over pay for JJ to get other star NBA players wanting to come to play for us....."

Well, what star players have we gotten from FA to play with us????

Don't get me wrong, if we lose JJ it could be a very big step backwards but was Belkin right? I say yes.

What JJ is worth today is less than he was worth when we acquired him because of his age. I don't know how you can view whether Belkin was right based on whether JJ getting paid more money at an older age is a good idea.

[Packfill]

At the end of the day, the Hawks effectively traded Boris Diaw, Rajon Rondo and Robin Lopez for JJ.

Given the teams limited playoff success, not exactly a home run, but not a bad deal either.

[AHF]

At the end of the day, the Hawks effectively traded Boris Diaw, Rajon Rondo and Robin Lopez for JJ.

Given the teams limited playoff success, not exactly a home run, but not a bad deal either.

You also have to discount Rondo and Lopez for whoever BK would have taken in those spots.

[GST]

If we hadn't traded for JJ, the Rondo and Lopez picks likely would have been higher. JJ got us to the playoffs faster, but he also caused young talent acquisition through the draft to stall faster.

[TheNorthCydeRises]

How was Belkin right when . . .

- JJ makes 3rd team All-NBA this year

- JJ makes the All-Star team 4 years in a row

- Helps guide the Hawks to 3 playoff appearances in the 5 years he was here

.

- If JJ leaves, he'll still go down as possibly one of the top 5 to 7 players in franchise history

How many players in the league can say that they've done ALL of this?

JJ is most certaintly a #1 option in this league. Anybody that the other team has to double and triple team to try to stop, is a #1 option.

What JJ isn't . . is a superstar. And outside of a few games, didn't play well durng the playoffs.

Put it like this . . . if we DON'T make that trade, we're probably forced to sign Al Harrington to a long term deal, just to try to field somewhat of a team. At that point, it would be up to BK to NOT MISS on draft picks.

[AHF]

If we hadn't traded for JJ, the Rondo and Lopez picks likely would have been higher. JJ got us to the playoffs faster, but he also caused young talent acquisition through the draft to stall faster.

The Rondo pick originated in Boston and had nothing to do with our record.

For the Lopez pick, we didn't lose that pick until after we had drafted:

Marvin Williams #2

Shelden Williams #5

Al Hoford #3

Acie Law #11(unrelated to Atl performance)

How much faster do you think that would have gone without JJ? #2, 3 & 5 is pretty good/pathetic (depending on your perspective).

Mathematically we couldn't have expected to do much better than that even finishing with the worst record all 3 years.

Edited June 24, 2010 by AHF

[NJHAWK]

Yes we would have made the playoffs the last 3 years and the 2nd round with Boris Diaw. No doubt about it.

[DrReality]

Crying over spilt milk

[GST]

I stand corrected on the Rondo, but I am still right on the concept. Without JJ, we would have sucked a little longer and had a better chance at higher picks.

[AHF]

I stand corrected on the Rondo, but I am still right on the concept. Without JJ, we would have sucked a little longer and had a better chance at higher picks.

How does that play out in your mind?

With the worst record in the entire NBA, our highest probability is ending up with the 3rd or 4th pick. I'm not aware of any that has ever finished with the worst record in the NBA 4 consecutive seasons.

We picked #2, #3 and #5 in three consecutive drafts. That is very similar to what you would expect had we finished with the worst record all three years.

How much better draft position did you expect us to end up with without JJ?

[GST]

AHF, I said better chance. IIRC, the Lopez pick was #15, and it was based on our record. If we would have been a little worse, that would have been a lottery pick, our lottery pick. Take a look at the 2008 draft, picks 4-14, and see if you can find anyone who could help us:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_NBA_Draft

There are no guarantees, but to hit the jackpot, you have got to be in the game.

[AHF]

AHF, I said better chance. IIRC, the Lopez pick was #15, and it was based on our record. If we would have been a little worse, that would have been a lottery pick, our lottery pick. Take a look at the 2008 draft, picks 4-14, and see if you can find anyone who could help us:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_NBA_Draft

There are no guarantees, but to hit the jackpot, you have got to be in the game.

So your idea is that we would have had the same picks or thereabouts in 2005, 2006 and 2007 but that in 2008 we could have picked up someone like:

1 6 Gallinari, DaniloDanilo Gallinari F Italy New York Knicks Olimpia Milano (Italy) 1988

1 7 Gordon, EricEric Gordon G United States Los Angeles Clippers Indiana (Fr.)

1 8 Alexander, JoeJoe Alexander F United States Milwaukee Bucks West Virginia (Jr.)

1 9 Augustin, D. J.D. J. Augustin G United States Charlotte Bobcats Texas (So.)

1 10 Lopez, BrookBrook Lopez C United States New Jersey Nets Stanford (So.)

1 11 Bayless, JerrydJerryd Bayless G United States Indiana Pacers (traded to Portland) Arizona (Fr.)

1 12 Thompson, JasonJason Thompson F United States Sacramento Kings Rider (Sr.)

1 13 Rush, BrandonBrandon Rush F United States Portland Trail Blazers (traded to Indiana) Kansas (Jr.)

1 14 Randolph, AnthonyAnthony Randolph F United States Golden State Warriors LSU (Fr.)

And that the shot at these guys would have been much better than 4 All-Star seasons from JJ?

[Guest]

AHF, I said better chance. IIRC, the Lopez pick was #15, and it was based on our record. If we would have been a little worse, that would have been a lottery pick, our lottery pick. Take a look at the 2008 draft, picks 4-14, and see if you can find anyone who could help us:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_NBA_Draft

There are no guarantees, but to hit the jackpot, you have got to be in the game.

That year the pick was unprotected. It doesn't matter where the pick was, Phoenix was getting it.

[GST]

AHF, the bottom line is that acquiring JJ did NOT make us a championship caliber team. Since I am not omniscient, I can't say who we would have picked, or where we would have picked. I do know the worse your record, the greater your chances in the lottery. Is there a reason you left 4 and 5 (Russell Westbrook and Kevin Love) off your list? I thought the three worst teams were guaranteed the top three spots, but all the other lottery picks were up for grabs.

[exodus]

AHF, the bottom line is that acquiring JJ did NOT make us a championship caliber team. Since I am not omniscient, I can't say who we would have picked, or where we would have picked. I do know the worse your record, the greater your chances in the lottery. Is there a reason you left 4 and 5 (Russell Westbrook and Kevin Love) off your list? I thought the three worst teams were guaranteed the top three spots, but all the other lottery picks were up for grabs.

You clearly don't understand the draft at all. The team with the worst record is most likely to wind up picking 4th.

And given that BK consistently blew high picks what makes you think that would have changed in 2008?

Edited June 25, 2010 by exodus

[GST]

Sorry, I haven't thought about the draft lottery in 2 years.

[Guest]

Sorry, I haven't thought about the draft lottery in 2 years.

[Guest]

Belkin's issue with the trade was that he thought they were giving up too many picks.,,,not that he though JJ wasn't a good fit.

[Endy9]

Belkin didn't seem to want us to spend any money on anyone. So if Belkin ran things not only would we not have JJ, but we would have let Smoove and Marvin go and replaced them with draft picks. Whom if they were any good, we would have had to replace in three years when they wanted more money. If you think the current guys running the club are cheap, Belkin makes them look like diamond jim. So no he wasn't right.