Hawks a lottery team?

[Vol4ever]

Former NBA player Eddie Johnson says in the link below that the Hawks will be a lottery team if Joe leaves! :white flag:

http://blogs.hoopshype.com/blogs/johnson/2010/06/26/the-top-25-free-agents/

[GameTime]

If Joe is gone and Jamal starts..... Yes.

[GST]

There was something else interesting on that list:

13. John Salmons

I have him at 13, but I am not sure he belongs here. Salmons disappoints you when you think about how good he can be, but never shows the consistency expected for the dollars he will demand.

This is why Jamal is questionable as a starter. Salmons may not be what we need when JJ leaves.

[Diesel]

Former NBA player Eddie Johnson says in the link below that the Hawks will be a lottery team if Joe leaves! :white flag:

http://blogs.hoopshype.com/blogs/johnson/2010/06/26/the-top-25-free-agents/

You have to remember that Eddie Johnson is Joe Johnson's uncle. Not really but may as well be. They made a really strong relationship while in Phoenix. I remember listening to EJ on the radio while Joe was waiting for the trade to go through. He had big praise for Joe's game. Since then, I have always got the feeling that he regretted Joe leaving the Suns. His words are probably to help Joe get a max contract. IF Uncle Eddie can help you, you know he will.

[HawksFan87]

I don't even know who Eddie Johnson is....

[AHawks89]

Former NBA player Eddie Johnson says in the link below that the Hawks will be a lottery team if Joe leaves! :white flag:

http://blogs.hoopshype.com/blogs/johnson/2010/06/26/the-top-25-free-agents/

LOL this is coming from Woody's best friend in the whole world. Of course he is in love with Joe Johnson, too. Hah. It don't surprise me that he is angry.

[Vol4ever]

I don't even know who Eddie Johnson is....

Eddie played for the Kansas City Kings and some other teams in his career. I think he played for Illinois in college.

[Seano]

"The hard part I am having concerning Johnson is why he is in such a hurry to leave a 53-win team with very good talent."

That doesn't sound like he's angry to me, just puzzled. At any rate, I disagree with him that we're a lottery team minus Joe Johnson. We'd fall back some, but we're not going to fall back from 53 wins down to 20 something wins. I would bet my house on that.

[Crank]

If Joe is gone and Jamal starts..... Yes.

No jamal starting would have nothing to do with its if jamal starts and we dont strengthen the bench then we would be hurting but EVEN THEN if Joe left and we became a lottery team it would be an indictment of Al and Josh not whether jamal starts considering he will play 30 mpg regardless . If they are as good as everyone thinks we should never be a lottery team again as long as both are healthy.

If you dont believe that then we should be looking to make moves whether Joe stays or not .

[MaceCase]

If it takes 45 wins to make the playoffs in the east then yea, probably. People need not forget that if you don't make the playoffs you are a lotto team. Not high lotto like we're used to but late lotto.

[Sothron]

I don't even know who Eddie Johnson is....

he's a good player that stuck around forever in the NBA.

[Buzzard]

If our starting backcourt is Bibby/Crawford (pick one) or Teague/Crawford (pick one) we could slide down in the same manner Detroit did when they traded away Billups. I can see that easily.

[LastDon]

If our starting backcourt is Bibby/Crawford (pick one) or Teague/Crawford (pick one) we could slide down in the same manner Detroit did when they traded away Billups. I can see that easily.

I don't see that as being true because with Teague starting the pg position will be stronger defensively without having Bibby on the floor playing madador defense and secondly if joe leaves we can bet your bottom dollar that Chillz come back and he an joe are a push on the defensive side of the ball, crawford will stay in six man role this season and the hawks win 45 games without joe and make it to the second round of the playoffs.

[RedDawg#8]

Even with Joe here we never played consistently from night to night. Whether he stays or goes, if this team ever played with 100% concentration and effort each night, we would be a playoff team. Look at the Bobcats as a prime example. Not including Joe we are possibly just as talented. They just play hard every night. What we need most, more than a star player, is a star effort from our young studs.

the Blazers (injuries), Bobcats, and Bucks are great examples of teams that won with heart over talent most nights and made the playoffs. The Rockets werent far of either. They are whowe need to imitate if we lose Joe.

[NJHAWK]

The best words I can give about the Hawks losing Joe Johnson are: The Hawks without Joe Johnson are like a chicken without a head. The Hawks are between a rock and a you know what though. A 6 year 119 mill deal is going to be a bad contract the last few years of that deal. Eddie Johnson is right though we would be a lottery team. We wouldnt be horrible enough to get a great draft pick. We would be in Indiana Pacer limbo picking around 12 or 13 every year.

[KB21]

That doesn't sound like he's angry to me, just puzzled. At any rate, I disagree with him that we're a lottery team minus Joe Johnson. We'd fall back some, but we're not going to fall back from 53 wins down to 20 something wins. I would bet my house on that.

The more stats I look at, the more overblown losing Joe Johnson becomes by the media. The media thinks Joe Johnson is the only player on the Hawks team worth a damn. Eddie Johnson even states that the Hawks have good players, but then he goes on to say we will fall out of the playoffs without Joe Johnson. This isn't the case, IMO.

Two players on this team had more responsibility for the Hawks winning last year than Joe Johnson, and one other was equal to him. Both Al Horford and Josh Smith produced more win shares and win shares per 48 minutes than Joe Johnson. Jamal Crawford produced 1.1 fewer win shares total, but he actually produced more win shares per 48 than Joe Johnson.

I took a look last night at the big 6 free agents and evaluated them based on win shares.

1. LeBron James - 18.0 win shares/year over his past three full seasons

2. Dwyane Wade - 13.85 win shares/year over his past two seasons.

3. Amare Stoudemire - 12.17 win shares/year over his past three full seasons.

4. Chris Bosh - 10.0 win shares/year over his past three seasons.

5. Carlos Boozer - 9.8 win shares/year over his past three full seasons.

6. Joe Johnson - 7.67 win shares/year over his past three seasons.

Joe produced 8.4 win shares in 2009-2010. My question is, why are teams even considering giving him a max contract with that production at his age. The player this past year that was more critical to the success of the Hawks? Al Horford with 10.9 win shares. Al Horford is actually in the top 10 in the NBA in win shares. He is tied for 8th with Tim Duncan. If anything, the Hawks need to let Joe walk and prepare to keep Al Hoford long term. He's younger. He's a better player at this point, IMO. While he might lose some of his efficiency with an increased role in the offense, I think his ability to score at the rim and also from 16-23 feet away gives him great flexibility as an offensive player. Among the centers in the NBA this past season that played 25 mpg or more, Al Horford is 4th among them in field goal percentage at the rim. Al shot a whopping 70% on shots at the rim. Al also shot 48% from 23-26 feet away on 2.2 attempts per game. That was 2nd among centers in the league last year that played 25+ mpg. While he is a little mechanical at times, Al is a very effective offensive player. He's also a terrific defender, and he and Josh Smith were the keys to the Hawks defense last year. They were very good at defending in the paint, and Al did a decent job when asked to guard opposing guards on the perimeter when he had to switch off a pick and roll. BTW, Josh Smith produced 9.3 win shares on the Hawks last year, also higher than Joe Johnsons. Jamal Crawford produced 7.3 win shares but had 0.143 win shares/48 to Joe's 0.140 win shares/48.

Any decline on this team that will come from losing Joe will come not because they lost Joe but because they are losing Jamal Crawford's production off the bench. If Jordan Crawford can make an immediate impact and Jeff Teague comes on and has a strong second season, then that loss in bench production could be offset.

The Hawks should let Joe walk and start working on a contract extension for Al Hoford. The center piece players for the Hawks at this time should be Al Horford and Josh Smith.

[Buzzard]

Any decline on this team that will come from losing Joe will come not because they lost Joe but because they are losing Jamal Crawford's production off the bench. If Jordan Crawford can make an immediate impact and Jeff Teague comes on and has a strong second season, then that loss in bench production could be offset.

The Hawks should let Joe walk and start working on a contract extension for Al Hoford. The center piece players for the Hawks at this time should be Al Horford and Josh Smith.

Lets just go with losing JJ as our owners plan. Net 3 million off the 2nd round pick, lose JJs 15 million, aquire two MLE types at 10 million total. Net savings is now 8 million. By George I think you got it KB and the best part for our owners is they do not have to use the MLE.

SNT JJ for MLE type contract

Sign Chilz to MLE type contract or SNT him as well

[KB21]

As I look a little deeper into the stats, Jamal had a career year last year coming off the bench. Prior to last year, Jamal Crawford was roughly a 3 win share per year player. His scoring in previous years did not contribute much to wins. The question is, can Jamal repeat what he did last year if he is moved into the starting line up? Looking at the numbers, it appears that Joe and Jamal helped one another out and both had career years in terms of producing wins last year. The problem is, neither player is worth the contract he has or will end up getting this offseason in Joe's case because scoring is really the only aspect where they truly effect the game. Neither player makes defensive plays.

So, yes, I can see where the Hawks could go from being a 53 win team to being a team that plays closer to 0.500 ball if they let Joe go, but that has less to do with losing Joe than it does losing the effect that Joe and Jamal apparently have on each other. As I said, one of the questions is whether Jamal can repeat his efficient scoring season from last year. Another is how much will increasing the roles of Al Horfod, Josh Smith, and Marvin Williams have on the win total of this team?

Even with these questions, I would only resign Joe Johnson if he's willing to sign a contract at his value, and I would really push for nothing more than a three year deal at this point.

[Buzzard]

So, yes, I can see where the Hawks could go from being a 53 win team to being a team that plays closer to 0.500 ball if they let Joe go, but that has less to do with losing Joe than it does losing the effect that Joe and Jamal apparently have on each other.

Prior to last year, Jamal Crawford was roughly a 3 win share per year player. His scoring in previous years did not contribute much to wins.

We have questions to answer on this team KB. If we lose JJ, who is our best on the ball defender we have a huge hole to fill. Craws value is off the bench. He is a instant offensive threat that has to be accounted for by a 1st team type player or defensive specialist.

Anyone who thinks Craw can fill JJs shoes on both ends of the floor is not seeing the overall picture that JJ has on our team.

[Buzzard]

I don't see that as being true because with Teague starting the pg position will be stronger defensively without having Bibby on the floor playing madador defense and secondly if joe leaves we can bet your bottom dollar that Chillz come back and he an joe are a push on the defensive side of the ball, crawford will stay in six man role this season and the hawks win 45 games without joe and make it to the second round of the playoffs.

Chilz and JJ are not pushes on D. The reason we matched up so well with Boston is because JJ could guard either Paul or Allen and Rondo for a limited number of plays. Chilz nor Craw will give us that option. Well they will but it will not be anywhere as near as effective.