Buyer's Guide : Joe Johnson

[capstone21]

Buyer's Guide: Joe Johnson

Teams have to decide if his scoring prowess is worth a big-time contract

Johnson can be an elite scorer, but his reliance upon isolation hurts his efficiency.

ESPN Insider is analyzing NBA free agents not named LeBron James (we covered him pretty extensively a few weeks ago, and there's even more coming every day on the LeBron Tracker) to determine what they're really worth to the teams chasing them this summer. To follow the entire series, click here. We continue Thursday with Joe Johnson.

Joe Johnson, SG

AGE: 28

HT: 6-7

WT: 240

WING: 6-9

VERT: 35½ inches

PPG: 17.6

RPG: 4.2

APG: 4.5

FG% .443

FT% .792

WHAT HE'S WORTH: 4 years, $52 million

WHAT HE'LL GET: 6 years, $90 million

GOOD FITS: Knicks, Nets, Heat, Wizards

LESS THAN IDEAL: Hawks, Bulls, Thunder

OVERALL ASSESSMENT

If Joe Johnson's performance in the playoffs dictated how much money he'll grab in his next contract, he wouldn't get more than the mid-level exception. But Johnson's body of work over his nine-year career -- including five straight seasons averaging more than 20 points per game -- suggests he might be worth a max contract in a buyer's market. The reality is that his true value lies somewhere in between.

Whereas Dwyane Wade outmaneuvers his opponents at the shooting guard position, Johnson utilizes his 6-foot-7 frame to overpower his defender and attack the basket from the wing.

Johnson is an isolation machine -- only Brandon Roy and Carmelo Anthony derived more of their offense from iso sets this past season. He isn't the most prolific perimeter player off the dribble, but he's certainly one of the toughest matchups in the game.

But Johnson's recent playoff production suggests he relies too heavily on iso ball. Synergy Sports Technology tells us that 36.7 percent of Johnson's offense came off isolation this past season, but he upped his dependency in the playoffs to 38.8 percent. The result? Johnson posted the worst efficiency in that area among the 16 players who isolated at least 40 times on offense. If that isn't bad enough, he posted a similar drop in effectiveness in the 2008-09 playoffs.

Johnson's iso-heavy attack may be more easily neutralized against the postseason's fleet of top defenses, but despite his dud performance against the Orlando Magic, don't expect that to sway potential suitors.

"No front office watched Joe Johnson four years and said, 'Wow, I really want that guy' and then, after those four games, said, 'Uh, no I don't,'" one league executive said. "Joe is a diesel. Joe is going to do what Joe does."

What Johnson doesn't do is wow fans with electric finishes and acrobatic plays that will help fill the arena the way LeBron James or Amare Stoudemire can. Instead, in business-like fashion, he can score from anywhere on the court.

"He's a supersized 2-guard who can shoot the ball, and you don't lose that over time," the exec said. "He hasn't had huge injury problems, and he's never been dependent on athleticism as a means to being a player. He is stable money."

To fully utilize his excellent combination of ballhandling, shooting ability and size, Johnson should transition from an iso player to one more dependent on the pick-and-roll. According to Synergy, no ball handler scored off the pick-and-roll better than Johnson this past season. But, despite scoring on more than half of his 134 screen sets, Johnson ran four isolations for every pick-and-roll. Whoever his new coach is next season should take note.

While Johnson has only the cleanest bill of health, one has to wonder how much longer he can maintain his All-Star level of play. Consider the case of Michael Finley. After five consecutive seasons averaging more than 20 points per game through age 28 (ring a bell?), Finley showed no signs of slowing down as he entered his 30s. However, by the time he reached 32, he was no more than a spot-up shooter on the fringe of a starting rotation.

That isn't an isolated case. Just ask Jerry Stackhouse, Jalen Rose and Steve Smith how they played after hitting age 30.

At least one league exec, however, disagrees with that dim forecast.

"He's going to be worth the investment in that he's going to be as good as he is for the length of the contract," the exec said. "Joe's not going to be a two-year wonder and three of the years are absolute garbage on your books. It's just that you have to overpay him to start with. Can he earn $12 million [per year]? Yeah, probably. Can he earn $16½? Probably not."

Since most teams with cap space will be hungry for a scoring wing, Johnson will receive an inflated contract just by virtue of the bidding process. Will he get the max? It's impossible to know for sure. But, more and more, it's looking like the team that signs Johnson will expose itself not only to the potential danger of a Finley-like demise, but the Winner's Curse as well.

FINDING THE RIGHT FIT

With Johnson's window likely closing sooner rather than later, if he does leave Atlanta, he'll need to partner with another star who not only could shoulder some of the scoring burden and discourage Johnson from routinely falling into isolation sets but who has superior athleticism.

"The Hawks didn't win nearly as much when Joe played and Josh Smith didn't as they did it in reverse," one league exec said. "Joe isn't a shock-and-awe athlete, so he's gonna always need to play with it. But Josh is that. And while Josh is a complete and total question mark upstairs, he is the kind of athlete that Joe needs to be paired with. If you look at where he's played his best, he's had Smith or Stoudemire or Shawn Marion on the court with him all the time."

“ If you look at where [Johnson's] played his best, he's had [Josh] Smith or [Amare] Stoudemire or Shawn Marion on the court with him all the time.

” - NBA executive

It just so happens that Stoudemire is looking for a future home as well. Could the two reunite with Mike D'Antoni in the Big Apple? The New York Knicks have the cash to make it happen, but they won't engage in serious talks with those two unless they definitively strike out on Chris Bosh, Wade and LeBron. Consider the reunion a sentimental safety net.

If New York is interested in Johnson, expect superagent Arn Tellem to reel in a huge deal.

"New York's been lousy for so long, playing for free agency, and Tellem has New York by the neck," one high-level source said. "It's not like New York can try to get him for $12 million."

If not New York, where else could Johnson go?

The New Jersey Nets could package him with Stoudemire, Bosh or Carlos Boozer if his price tag doesn't reach the neighborhood of a max deal. Devin Harris provides a scoring option and creator at the point, something that Mike Bibby hasn't been in years. The Chicago Bulls have Luol Deng already occupying much of the space they would need to reserve for Johnson. They may be more inclined to spend their $20 million in cap space on a max deal for a scoring big man entering his prime. And there's always a chance the Heat could look at Johnson if their prime targets go elsewhere, but it's hard to imagine Wade, a ball-dominant scorer on the wing, fitting well with Johnson.

Looking for a dark horse to land Johnson? Don't count out Washington. The Wizards could be looking for a scoring option on the wing in the event they dump Gilbert Arenas' contract, and they also have the available cap space to pull it off. Then again, locking in a shooting guard of Johnson's age might not be the wisest move for a rebuilding franchise.

Johnson could return to Atlanta now that there's a new sheriff in town, but the Hawks' ceiling won't get any higher than it did this past year. And they have no cash to spend.

In the end, Johnson probably won't find a bidder for a max deal, but he could be worth one in the short term. For a hungry franchise that's fat in the pockets and thinking toward the future, a deal for Johnson could be the last thing it needs.

But that doesn't mean it won't happen.

Edited June 28, 2010 by mrhonline

[mrhonline]

Johnson is an isolation machine -- only Brandon Roy and Carmelo Anthony derived more of their offense from iso sets this past season. He isn't the most prolific perimeter player off the dribble, but he's certainly one of the toughest matchups in the game.

But Johnson's recent playoff production suggests he relies too heavily on iso ball. Synergy Sports Technology tells us that 36.7 percent of Johnson's offense came off isolation this past season, but he upped his dependency in the playoffs to 38.8 percent. The result? Johnson posted the worst efficiency in that area among the 16 players who isolated at least 40 times on offense. If that isn't bad enough, he posted a similar drop in effectiveness in the 2008-09 playoffs.

^^^From that article...

[mrhonline]

And this:

"He's a supersized 2-guard who can shoot the ball, and you don't lose that over time," the exec said. "He hasn't had huge injury problems, and he's never been dependent on athleticism as a means to being a player. He is stable money."

To fully utilize his excellent combination of ballhandling, shooting ability and size, Johnson should transition from an iso player to one more dependent on the pick-and-roll. According to Synergy, no ball handler scored off the pick-and-roll better than Johnson this past season. But, despite scoring on more than half of his 134 screen sets, Johnson ran four isolations for every pick-and-roll. Whoever his new coach is next season should take note.

[tremor]

Wow, that's all I can say.

[AHF]

But Johnson's recent playoff production suggests he relies too heavily on iso ball. Synergy Sports Technology tells us that 36.7 percent of Johnson's offense came off isolation this past season, but he upped his dependency in the playoffs to 38.8 percent. The result? Johnson posted the worst efficiency in that area among the 16 players who isolated at least 40 times on offense. If that isn't bad enough, he posted a similar drop in effectiveness in the 2008-09 playoffs.

I am not sure how to blame JJ for the iso offense. It seems he has been pretty successful in a non-iso offense as well. The blame for that goes on the guy who installed and had the team run the iso offense - Woodson.

[vext]

This is the part that I find interesting:

WHAT HE'S WORTH: 4 years, $52 million

WHAT HE'LL GET: 6 years, $90 million

GOOD FITS: Knicks, Nets, Heat, Wizards

LESS THAN IDEAL: Hawks, Bulls, Thunder

I like how the Hawks are "less than ideal" when he is are starting SG, has been all-star for the past several years playing for us, and that 3 of the 4 "good fits" didn't make the playoffs last year. The 4th one that did was out in the first round and has like 2 people on contract. On top of that, I guarantee ESPN will be the first to call the Hawks out for being cheap when we offer him 6 years 100mil and still watch him walk for more. It feels like most stories I read on ESPN are just trying to build up drama and sensationalize the NBA. It ends up being more of an entertainment read than a news-worthy read. I guess I only have myself to blame though since I still keep going back...

[TheNorthCydeRises]

LOL . . how is JJ going to Chicago "a less than ideal fit?" They have Derrick Rose, a guard that loves to drive the basketball and score, but has also shown the ability to kick out to shooters. He and Rose would be a DEVASTATING backcourt. They're big . . . they both can pass . . Rose is the driver while JJ is the shooter . . and both can play decent defense.

And people never state the obvious. JJ relied on ISO ball . . BECAUSE HE DIDN'T HAVE A GOOD PG FEEDING HIM THE BALL. In fact, you can say that about the entire team.

I guess those same idiots think that because Carmelo goes ISO a lot, that he couldn't play with a pass-first PG? Melo is a shooter. You pair him with a very good PG, and his production might actually GO UP, because he'll have to work a little less hard to get quality shots. The same goes for JJ. If we ever got a hold of a PG that could be both a scoring and a passing threat, guys like JJ, Horford, and Smoove would become much better offensive players.

And LOL @ the Nets and Knicks being an "ideal fit" before the Hawks. What's the logic in that?

These writers/bloggers forget the history of the league. They either forget it, or have no clue about it.

[Buzzard]

I am not sure how to blame JJ for the iso offense. It seems he has been pretty successful in a non-iso offense as well. The blame for that goes on the guy who installed and had the team run the iso offense - Woodson.

No kidding. JJ is a great pick and roll guy when WE ran one; yet its HE who relied to heavily on ISO ball. Now that Woody is gone, he will be seen as a great all around coach by this guy and our playoff disasters are all on JJs and not Woodys ISO ball.

Edited June 28, 2010 by Buzzard

[Johnnybravo4]

I think New York may relive the Allen Houston mistake all over again. They are basically the same player.

[Sothron]

I don't see how anyone can blame a Hawks player for the iso offense when everyone under the sun knows Woodson was determined to run it.

[Wretch]

I don't see how anyone can blame a Hawks player for the iso offense when everyone under the sun knows Woodson was determined to run it.

I read that and immediately thought the same thing...but shhh! Maybe teams will get scared away! lol Honestly, I don't think JJ leaves if he can't sign with LeBron/Wade/Bosh somewhere. Without adding someone else (LBJ, Bosh), I just don't see a better situation for him than Atlanta. Even NY with Amare...how much better is that team than the Phoenix team JJ was on with him and Nash? Factor in the money we're reportedly throwing at him (or can throw at him). I really don't see JJ leaving. Unless Bron, Wade, or Bosh told him that he's in their plans...I think it's all for show to drive up his value here - in case our owners are nervous about paying him.

[lethalweapon3]

Happy Birthday to Joe Johnson who turns 29 (for the first of many, many years) tomorrow. Just putting that out there.

~lw3

[Flight]

I don't see how ATL is a "Less than Ideal" fit for a guy that has played here for 6 years basically lol

[LucastheThird]

I guess those same idiots think that because Carmelo goes ISO a lot, that he couldn't play with a pass-first PG? Melo is a shooter. You pair him with a very good PG, and his production might actually GO UP, because he'll have to work a little less hard to get quality shots.

Um did you forget about Mr. Big Shot Billups and how Melo's production went up after he got to Denver?

[KB21]

I read that and immediately thought the same thing...but shhh! Maybe teams will get scared away! lol Honestly, I don't think JJ leaves if he can't sign with LeBron/Wade/Bosh somewhere. Without adding someone else (LBJ, Bosh), I just don't see a better situation for him than Atlanta. Even NY with Amare...how much better is that team than the Phoenix team JJ was on with him and Nash? Factor in the money we're reportedly throwing at him (or can throw at him). I really don't see JJ leaving. Unless Bron, Wade, or Bosh told him that he's in their plans...I think it's all for show to drive up his value here - in case our owners are nervous about paying him.

That New York team with Joe and Amare would not be better. Why? The New York Knicks don't have Steve Nash, much less Shawn Marion in his prime. They don't even have a Quentin Richardson.

[TheNorthCydeRises]

Um did you forget about Mr. Big Shot Billups and how Melo's production went up after he got to Denver?

You sure about that?

Melo scored more last year, but it wasn't because of Billups. Billups shot terrible last year and his assists went down under 6 per game last year. And Melo's shooting percentage the last 2 years is below what it was when Iverson and especially Andre Miller were running the team.

Billups doesn't make individual players better. He brings stability to a team by playing solid defense and by making plays on offense.

His name is "Mr. Big Shot" . . . . . not "Mr. Big Pass"