Is Smoove Regressing under Drew?

[AHF]

Avoidance thy name is AHF. 82 games are more telling than a handful of playoff games.

Please explain how improving his percentage in the 16-23 foot area will make such a difference when he took less than one shot per game in that area. And how good do you expect him to be with his jumper if he wasn't taking bad shots?

As I said before your math doesn't add up.

First, I never said the 16-23 foot area would make a significant difference. I said it was low hanging fruit. Second, I refuse to give a raw % increase that I would expect for his efg% on jumpers because I don't have a meaningful metric to generate that number. Taking better shot would clearly improve his % - by how much I don't feel equiped to give a meaningful number so I am not going to give an arbitrary one.

I am ASTONISHED, however, that you are acting like the criticism of Artest's shot selection is limited to a "handful of playoff games" and that I am avoiding the elephant in the room.

Artest's history is not "a handful of playoff games." He was criticized for his entire season's shooting in LA. He was criticized by his coach and GM for shot selection in Houston. He was criticized for shot selection in Sacramento. He was criticized for shot selection in Indiana. Heck, he was criticized for shot selection even in college.

Sample size? You are ignoring his entire career and trying to act like this persistent issue is limited to a handful of playoff games. That is avoidance and denial.

Edited November 3, 2010 by AHF

[exodus]

First, I never said the 16-23 foot area would make a significant difference. I said it was low hanging fruit. Second, I refuse to give a raw % increase that I would expect for his efg% on jumpers because I don't have a meaningful metric to generate that number. Taking better shot would clearly improve his % - by how much I don't feel equiped to give a meaningful number so I am not going to give an arbitrary one.

I am ASTONISHED, however, that you are acting like the criticism of Artest's shot selection is limited to a "handful of playoff games" and that I am avoiding the elephant in the room.

Artest's history is not "a handful of playoff games." He was criticized for his entire season's shooting in LA. He was criticized by his coach and GM for shot selection in Houston. He was criticized for shot selection in Sacramento. He was criticized for shot selection in Indiana. Heck, he was criticized for shot selection even in college.

Sample size? You are ignoring his entire career and trying to act like this persistent issue is limited to a handful of playoff games. That is avoidance and denial.

Artest's entire career isn't in question. His season with the Lakers is. The person who originally mentioned Artest specifically mentioned his season with the Lakers, which i took exception to.

Your quotes about his issues in the postseason don't negate the 82 games that preceeded it. The postseason is a different season. during the regular season you can shoot through a shooting slump, as JJ did last year. In the postseason that is not advisable, especially for a role player.

Looking at a small sample size of games is never the way to make an accurrate judgement.

You obviously expect Artest to be as effective as Bibby from the perimeter, which he would be with only a 3-4% improvement in his EFG. I think that is a ridiculous expectation. If you don't think he can improve his EFG by 3-4% then i have to question why you are even arguing in the first place.

[AHF]

The comments weren't limited to the post-season and many of them were written after the season was over and people were looking back on his entire season with the Lakers. Many of the fan posts were part of a deeper dive on his past and future with the Lakers and spent time discussing things like his progress over the season within the triangle offense and his continued issues with shot selection.

Acting like Ron had fantastic shot selection all year and then went loopy in the playoffs simply because Phil Jackson wasn't holding press conferences criticizing Ron's shot selection during the regular season is ignoring what happened over the course of the season, IMO. There is a reason Phil talked about having spoken with Ron and Odom about their shot selection and the fact that they still had work to do and that he didn't just say, "Ron had a few bad games recently but he has shown us all season he is capable of making the right choice." Instead, Phil wondered openly whether he could trust Ron on the floor at all with his suspect judgment.

[thecampster]

Josh took another 3 pointer last night :(

Did anyone else notice how Josh scurried out to the 3 point line when the clock was winding down so he would have an excuse to chuck one up?

OMG it was the last possession of the game. That is such a reach and Bibby called for him to come out and get it.

[exodus]

The comments weren't limited to the post-season and many of them were written after the season was over and people were looking back on his entire season with the Lakers. Many of the fan posts were part of a deeper dive on his past and future with the Lakers and spent time discussing things like his progress over the season within the triangle offense and his continued issues with shot selection.

Acting like Ron had fantastic shot selection all year and then went loopy in the playoffs simply because Phil Jackson wasn't holding press conferences criticizing Ron's shot selection during the regular season is ignoring what happened over the course of the season, IMO. There is a reason Phil talked about having spoken with Ron and Odom about their shot selection and the fact that they still had work to do and that he didn't just say, "Ron had a few bad games recently but he has shown us all season he is capable of making the right choice." Instead, Phil wondered openly whether he could trust Ron on the floor at all with his suspect judgment.

You aren't getting it. Think

Last year was an anomoly for Artest in terms of shot selection. How so? He took over twice as many 3s as long 2s, something he has never done before. That is SMART SHOT SELECTION for someone who is a respectable 3 point shooter but below average everywhere else due to his lack of length/hops

Given Artest's history, do you think that he came to this sudden epiphany on his own? I seriously doubt it. Put yourself in Phil Jackson's shoes. You are trying to win a title and Artest is coming to your team. You know his history. You have dealt with hard headed personalities before. You know that Artest will bring it on defense but how do you get the most out of him on offense?

You notice that he shot 40% from 3 the previous season. You know that he has not had the best judgement with the ball over the years so you don't want him making a lot of decisions with the ball off the dribble. It is unlikely that you will suddenly be able to teach him to be smart with the ball at this stage of his career. You know that he is going to have to sacrifice some of his scoring to help the team, which might not be easy for him. So what do you do?

The first priority should be to limit Artests touches/shots in the 16-23 foot area. Not only are they poor shots in general but that area is also where a lot of mental mistakes are made.

What i believe happened is that Jackson gave Artest the green light to take open 3s in exchange for Artest to limit his offense from 16-23 feet. It is exactly the type of thing Jackson would do. Knowing Jackson i think he was willing to live with the occassional ill timed 3 in exchange for a content Artest. In other words i think all indications are that Artest was doing exactly as he was told with his shot selection.

However this strategy, which worked extremely well during the regular season, is not without it's drawbacks. Even the best 3 point shooters are prone to slumps, and if someone gets in the habit of taking open 3s at will they might not be able to exersize more discretion when the situation calls for it, as is the case in the playoffs. When Artest went into a slump in April and it carried over into the postseason that put Jackson in an awkward spot, trying to take away the green light that Artest had all season. In the playoffs Jackson wasn't in a position to be patient, which he has been historically (see his reluctance to call time outs when his team is struggling). He was trying to win a title and he had to do what he could to get Artest under control. Predictably, Jackson met resistance.

I think all of the evidence points to this being the case. I think it is ridiculous to expect Artest to do much better than 47% EFG on jumpers over the course of a season.

If you have a different scenario that explains Artest's dramatic change in shot selection I am all ears. So far you have presented nothing.

Edited November 3, 2010 by exodus

[JackB1]

OMG it was the last possession of the game. That is such a reach and Bibby called for him to come out and get it.

It's not a reach at all. Josh is always jumping out near the arc at the end of the payclock. Just watch for it next game.

He looks for any excuse to throw up a 3 pointer. The players are wising up now and not passing to him out there as

much, but he is still jumping out there when the clock is winding down. He does it a lot more towards the end of the

game also.

[BusBoyIsBack]

In my mind, both Josh Smith and Ron Artest are guys who have been redflagged for their poor shot selection for years. Josh's decision to shoot long jumpers is worse than Ron's decision to shoot unnecessarily contested jumpers but both have been persistent and public problems for both players. Both have made improvements but still have a ways to go before they approach the 50th percentile of decision-makers in the NBA.

Again, Josh shoots jumpers so poorly that it is absolutely inexcusable and demonstrates terrible shot selection. Artest persistently demonstrates bad shot selection as well. It is part of their nature as players just like some players are naturally good passers or rebounders. These guys are naturally poor decision-makers as to what shots to take and what to pass on.

And you just put up with it because Ron Artest is such a great defender. Same with Josh Smith. But people who consider themselves fans of this team, many of them detest the guy and just want to get rid of the guy even if it would make the team worse in the process

[AHF]

If you have a different scenario that explains Artest's dramatic change in shot selection I am all ears. So far you have presented nothing.

Artest has always exercised bad judgment on shot selection. He was forced by his coach to limit his total number of shots and to limit his shot selection last season because he still isn't smart enough to exercise that judgment on his own and it increased his efg% on jumpers and overall. He continued to take bad shots in the regular season as referenced in many links that I posted reviewing his season but because Jackson had taken his discretion or decision-making ability away it was not in the same number as previous seasons. As Jackson noted, Artest's shot selection remains a work in progress because he doesn't get it yet and still makes bad decisions. Artest's lack of improvement in judgment was most clearly visible on multiple occassions in the post-season when he made mind-numbingly stupid shot attempts in the harsh glare of the post-season spotlight but was seen by Laker's fans and his own coach during the year (which was the reason for limiting his shot selection). Jackson didn't say Artest needed to get back on track when talking about his poor shot selection as you would say had he been on the right track, he said he had counseled both Odom and Artest on shot selection and they still had a ways to go. It wasn't a matter of Artest falling off the wagon for a couple of games int he playoffs - it was a matter of a shooting slump exacerbating the underlying problem that the man doesn't have the judgment needed to take good shots.

The above also parallels Josh Smith's last season (except where Ron was forced to reduced his total shots significantly) where he was told to severely limit or entirely eliminate a category of bad shots (3pters) and he reduced his total number of bad shots and increased his overall efg% and ts% as a result. He still took bad shots but all long jumpers for Josh are terrible shots so that wasn't going to change until he totally eliminated the long jumpers. Because he only completely eliminated the 3's, his efg% on jumpers declined but his offensive effectiveness increased. Josh's shot selection remains a work in process because he still doesn't get it and still makes bad decisions about when and from where to shoot.

[exodus]

Artest has always exercised bad judgment on shot selection. He was forced by his coach to limit his total number of shots and to limit his shot selection last season because he still isn't smart enough to exercise that judgment on his own and it increased his efg% on jumpers and overall. He continued to take bad shots in the regular season as referenced in many links that I posted reviewing his season but because Jackson had taken his discretion or decision-making ability away it was not in the same number as previous seasons.

Please post the links to the stories that were published before May 1. I must have missed them.

Now that you concede that Artest listened to his coach and altered his shot selection accordingly i ask again, do you really expect Artest to have an EFG% on jumpers significantly better than 47%? This isn't Ray Allen we are talking about.

FYI Ray Allen's EFG% on jumpers was 51.4% last year, a whopping 4.5% better than Artest.

It wasn't a matter of Artest falling off the wagon for a couple of games int he playoffs - it was a matter of a shooting slump exacerbating the underlying problem that the man doesn't have the judgment needed to take good shots.

And i don't believe he was asked to have good judgement during the season. I beleive that Jackson did his best to take away the decision making process from Artest as much as possible and Artest went along with it. The problem arose when Artest's slump coincided with the postseason, where alterations in strategy are a necesity.

If you want to argue that Artest failed to adjust his shot selection accordingly in the postseason, given his slump and the increased importance of each possession, then fine. But to say that he exercised poor judgement all season is nonsense. He dramatically altered his shot selection for the better. 47% is basically the best case scenario for a shooter of Artest's ability. I dont see how you can expect him to do significantly better than that.

I have no doubt that Jackson would have taken that in a heartbeat if you had asked him before the season started.

Meanwhile there is nobody in the NBA who takes as many jumpers as Smith does and shoots them worse. Not comparable at all.

Edited November 3, 2010 by exodus

[AHF]

Please post the links to the stories that were published before May 1. I must have missed them.

I am not going to go back and pull the dates off the approximately 50 articles and posts I quoted. That said, I do think it is worth noting that a discussion about Artest's season is not about a few games in the playoffs. It is about the season. If I wrote an article or post about Horford not driving enough to the basket last season on May 30, 2010 that wouldn't mean it was limited to describing the Orlando series. Saying Artest took bad shots last year doesn't mean the author was talking about just the playoffs - in fact there is a much better way to say that which is to use the word "playoffs."

I think we have reached the point of agreeing to disagree on whether Artest still had issues with shot selection last season.

Edited November 3, 2010 by AHF

[exodus]

A discussion about the season is not about a few games in the playoffs. It is about the season.

And what keeps coming up is the playoffs over and over, specifically the Suns series. The Lakers do not lack for media coverage. If Artest had major issues with shot selection i can't imagine that it wouldn't come up before the playoffs started. The Hawks have beat writers that cover almost every game. I'll go out on a limb and say that the Lakers have the same.

Are you doing to tell me that the Lakers don't have anyone covering them like Sekou used to do here?

I simply don't believe it is reasonable to expect Artest to shoot 50% or better on jumpers even with exceptional shot selection, putting him on par with guys like Bibby and Ray Allen. If you believe otherwise then we just have to disagree.

Edited November 3, 2010 by exodus

[exodus]

As a side note i think it is funny that i can't even remember the last time we argued about the Hawks, whether it be a player or management. Any time we have argued it always seems like it is about a non-Hawks player (as is the case here) or a college player. For two very different people it seems our opinions about the Hawks have been almost in lockstep.

[AHF]

As a side note i think it is funny that i can't even remember the last time we argued about the Hawks, whether it be a player or management. Any time we have argued it always seems like it is about a non-Hawks player (as is the case here) or a college player. For two very different people it seems our opinions about the Hawks have been almost in lockstep.

That is very true. Wait, is this comment about something other than the Hawks?

I disagree completely!!!

[JackB1]

I guess it's safe to say YES now.

I saw this coming a mile away when game 1 of preseason when Josh was jacking up 3 pointers.

It was like "No More Woody!!....Yipeee!!!!!"