Is Smoove Regressing under Drew?

[TheNorthCydeRises]

He has had plenty of success inside whether driving, posting up or hitting the offensive glass. He just doesn't do it enough because he wants to show that he can be a perimeter threat. unfortunately he is only a threat to his own team when he is on the perimeter.

Horford plays in the same offense and is a far better shooter but he isn't out there jacking up 20 footers.

From Hoopdata.com:

Al Horford took 2.2 shots per game from 16 - 23 FT . . and shot 48% . . ( this was the highest shooting percentage amongst all the Hawks in the regular rotation )

Josh Smith averaged 3 shots a game from 16 - 23 FT . . and shot 29% FG ( I think only Zaza shot a lower percentage from this range )

League average is 40% shooting from 16 - 23 FT

But people will still defend his "right" to take long jumpers..

[TheNorthCydeRises]

Zaza actually shot 51% from 16 - 23 FT last season, which would be the best on the team. But he only took 0.6 shots per game from that range.

Why?

Because he's traditionally a low 30% FG shooter from that range.

The 29% FG that Smith shot from that range, was the lowest since 2007 ( the data only goes back to 2007 for Smith ). That means that his shot is getting worse. That also means that no regular rotation player shot lower than him from that range last year.

As others have pointed out, Smith virtually eliminated the 3 point shot from his offensive game last year. And it's not a coincidence that as soon as he did that, he shoots a career high 50% FG.

If he reduced the long 2 point shot that he takes to say 1.5 shots per game, Smith probably shoots closer to 55% FG.

The coaches or some sportswriter should do an article on just how bad of a shooter he really is. Use every source of statistical data you can find, from hoopdata, 82games, even use the nba hotspots shot chart data ( which really shows just how bad of an outside shooter he is ).

See if that will finally bring "Smash" out of him, and see him attack the rim exclusively.

[coachx]

We're pretty much in agreement, excepting our expectations of how quickly Smoove's head softens. It's beyond the "STOP doing THAT" part... it's the "STOP doing THAT AND START doing THIS instead" that will take more time than you or I would like. He really IS learning to do something different. Smoove needs to get comfortable with swift low-post moves and precise high-post passes (on a team not familiar with either in its recent history) in a real-time environment against high-caliber NBA talent (apologies to Josh Powell). If that takes one more regular season game to set in for life, hats off to him! I don't expect it to happen right away, though. That's why I say, let's see where Smoove is in March heading toward the playoffs (Mr. Mora, I'm not talking to you), instead of October.

~lw3

You really think NBA coaches have NOT been telling and teaching Smoove to play like a PF on offense where he is obviously more effective ? You think the only "coahing" they do is to tell him what not to do ? Give me a break. Smoove just chooses to be hard headed. Its so obvious.

Edited October 29, 2010 by coachx

[Duff_Man]

Just like always, Josh doesn't really get it. At this point I believe he never will.

All the talent in the world...very little regard for fundamentals, behavior and acumen. Very frustrating player.

[exodus]

From Hoopdata.com:

Al Horford took 2.2 shots per game from 16 - 23 FT . . and shot 48% . . ( this was the highest shooting percentage amongst all the Hawks in the regular rotation )

Josh Smith averaged 3 shots a game from 16 - 23 FT . . and shot 29% FG ( I think only Zaza shot a lower percentage from this range )

League average is 40% shooting from 16 - 23 FT

But people will still defend his "right" to take long jumpers..

Not only is Horford a far better shooter but he also rarely shoots from anywhere near the 3 point line. He is usually much closer in so the idea that the coaches are the reason that Smith takes long jumpers is ridiculous. They both had the same coaches.

You can argue that the coaches have failed to prevent Smith from jacking up jumpers but there is no way you can say that the coaches are the root cause. I am no Woody fan but there is no way he was encouraging Smith to take long jumpers.

[AHF]

You can argue that the coaches have failed to prevent Smith from jacking up jumpers but there is no way you can say that the coaches are the root cause. I am no Woody fan but there is no way he was encouraging Smith to take long jumpers.

I think there was plenty of blame to go around. The old coaching staff very publicly failed to prevent Smith from jacking up jumpers:

“Josh is five years in the league now, man,” Woodson said after Smith’s

5-for-19 shooting effort in the loss to the Rockets. “And it comes down

to time, score and situation. That’s the bottom line. We’re not telling

him he can’t shoot 3-pointers"

At the same time, a better player would make the adjustment on his own. I do think, however frustrating the slow progress has been on this, that last year was a big step in the right direction. Hopefully, he will keep moving in the right direction but in the meantime any 3's or long 2's are exactly what the defense wants to see more of.

[exodus]

I think there was plenty of blame to go around. The old coaching staff very publicly failed to prevent Smith from jacking up jumpers:

At the same time, a better player would make the adjustment on his own. I do think, however frustrating the slow progress has been on this, that last year was a big step in the right direction. Hopefully, he will keep moving in the right direction but in the meantime any 3's or long 2's are exactly what the defense wants to see more of.

While Smith did well to cut out his 3s last year he still took way too many long 2s. he can't shoot a lick but still jacks up way too many jumpers.

The Memphis interior D is definitely less than stellar yet 7 of Smith's 10 shots were jumpers. Not a good sign.

[AHF]

While Smith did well to cut out his 3s last year he still took way too many long 2s. he can't shoot a lick but still jacks up way too many jumpers.

The Memphis interior D is definitely less than stellar yet 7 of Smith's 10 shots were jumpers. Not a good sign.

If memory serves me, I recall Josh starting most seasons a little slower and needing to get into form. He can't progress if he continues to shoot from the perimeter as much as in game 1 but the season is too early to make any informed judgments on that.

[exodus]

If memory serves me, I recall Josh starting most seasons a little slower and needing to get into form. He can't progress if he continues to shoot from the perimeter as much as in game 1 but the season is too early to make any informed judgments on that.

We'll just have to disagree on that. After 6 seasons my view is that Smith is a dumbass and will keep jacking long jumpers until he is forced to stop by the coaches. I have zero faith in Smith's judgement regarding shot selection.

[niremetal]

As others have pointed out, Smith virtually eliminated the 3 point shot from his offensive game last year. And it's not a coincidence that as soon as he did that, he shoots a career high 50% FG.

...but since he took more long 2s and since his FG% dropped on both midrange shots made at rim and within 10 feet of the basket, his EFG% actually went down compared to '08-'09. What made last year a career-best year for Josh was not his scoring; it was his passing and rebounding.

I know that last year you argued until you got amusingly blue in the face that EFG% is some misleading stat, but it's an accurate one because it takes into account that 3 > 2. It doesn't do any good to cut down on 3s if you just replace them with shots that you make only 15% more often but are worth 33% less. That's what Josh did when he stopped taking threes and started taking a few more long 2s. Wednesday, he seemed convinced he could hit both, which is going to lead to some very long nights.

Edited October 29, 2010 by niremetal

[AHF]

We'll just have to disagree on that. After 6 seasons my view is that Smith is a dumbass and will keep jacking long jumpers until he is forced to stop by the coaches. I have zero faith in Smith's judgement regarding shot selection.

I'd say that your view doesn't disagree with mine. Your view is based on Smith's career to date and there is plenty of track record to make judgments on that. It is the progress or lack thereof this season for which there isn't enough evidence to make any reasonable judgments.

[JackB1]

After 6 seasons my view is that Smith is a dumbass and will keep jacking long jumpers until he is forced to stop by the coaches. I have zero faith in Smith's judgement regarding shot selection.

Agree 110%

[lethalweapon3]

You really think NBA coaches have NOT been telling and teaching Smoove to play like a PF on offense where he is obviously more effective ? You think the only "coahing" they do is to tell him what not to do ? Give me a break. Smoove just chooses to be hard headed. Its so obvious.

Not the NBA coaches who intended to keep their jobs. Speaking of which, is Woody's resume on Monster.com yet?

~lw3

[lethalweapon3]

Nonsense. Smith is just a dumbass.

Fine. You say tom-ay-to, I say tom-ah-to. But even Ron Artest's psychiatrist will advise to you that even the most egregious "dumbasses," if you will, win championships with the right personnel on the floor and on the bench. The real question here is how long till he becomes less enough of a dopey donkey on offense to propel this team into championship-caliber contention.

Some believe it will just take one (more?) damm-good-talking-to, and voila, like a quick spray of Shot-B-Gone, Smoove becomes the back-to-the-basket post-up All-Star people keep dreaming of. Fine. All praise to (insert deity of choice here) if it works out so quickly.

Others believe no amount of (coddling, coaxing, shouting, shoe-pounding-on-the-table, threatening, benching) will ever matter. That's fine, too. So long as everyone understands that Smoove is not going anywhere, save for a trade for the mysterious All-World superstar or "real center" people also keep dreaming of.

I'm saying let's not assume that the next big chewing out is the one where Smoove gets it, once and for all eternity. If it ever does happen, it will take longer than one game, one week, or one month for Smoove to play consistently in this system. It may happen. But it won't happen by, like, Monday.

I knew to expect a return to long-range shooting during the Memphis preseason game. Smoove was the first one out of the locker room at halftime, he grabs a ball and the first thing he does... is toe the line and loft up is a three (unfortunately, it goes in). Then he's shooting his 2.99'ers at the free scrimmage, with no signs of disdain from the coaching staff, despite a smattering of groans in the stands.

The other elephant is the room that compounds this is his FT shooting. Playing close to the basket ensures the Hack-A-Smoove strategy goes back into full effect, as was the case early in the playoffs, and he knows this. The heralded motion offense will come to a halt every time the ball is directed to him in the low post. Rather than the indignities of getting persistently hammered once he touches the ball, having to suck it up to keep from getting T'd up, and then trying not to decapitate mascots and photographers with his bricks from the charity stripe, Smoove will happily resort to the relatively tranquil confines of the 3-point line. Call it what you want, but Smoove is happier shooting 30% of his two-pointers unmolested than 59% of his one-pointers with a scratched eyelid, bruised shoulder, etc. Getting Smoove where he needs to be on the floor consistently will require a significant restoration in his confidence with his FTs. That won't happen by, like, Monday, either. Until then, no matter where he is on the floor in the halfcourt, defenders have no rational need to play him honest.

Some of us fans may not be willing to "live with," the extent of Smoove's transformation, but just understand that this franchise is. The hometown product who puts Highlights in the Factory is not going anywhere. The highlights are worth the "dumbass" lowlights, to both the owners and the less-anal fans amongst us who show up to see him play. Sorry. If that's not the ship the A$G was willing to go down with, then they shouldn't have simply tossed one deck chair off the Titanic and rearranged the others.

~lw3

[AHF]

The other elephant is the room that compounds this is his FT shooting. Playing close to the basket ensures the Hack-A-Smoove strategy goes back into full effect, as was the case early in the playoffs, and he knows this. The heralded motion offense will come to a halt every time the ball is directed to him in the low post. Rather than the indignities of getting persistently hammered once he touches the ball, having to suck it up to keep from getting T'd up, and then trying not to decapitate mascots and photographers with his bricks from the charity stripe, Smoove will happily resort to the relatively tranquil confines of the 3-point line. Call it what you want, but Smoove is happier shooting 30% of his two-pointers unmolested than 59% of his one-pointers with a scratched eyelid, bruised shoulder, etc. Getting Smoove where he needs to be on the floor consistently will require a significant restoration in his confidence with his FTs. That won't happen by, like, Monday, either. Until then, no matter where he is on the floor in the halfcourt, defenders have no rational need to play him honest.

I also have never understood that line of thinking that goes "I only shoot 50% on my FTs so I am going to avoid contact by shooting 33% 2pter jumpers. That way, on 15 possessions I will score 10 points from my jumpers instead of the 15 points I would score from the line. Glad I helped the team out with that one."

[exodus]

Fine. You say tom-ay-to, I say tom-ah-to. But even Ron Artest's psychiatrist will advise to you that even the most egregious "dumbasses," if you will, win championships with the right personnel on the floor and on the bench.

~lw3

It isn't just about the other personnel and the bench. it is about the player pulling his head out of his *ss and doing what is best for the team. Artest is a poor comparison because his nonsense is off the court. When he gets on the floor he is all business.

Smith is one of if not the worst perimeter shooter in the NBA. I challenge you to find two players in the entire NBA who take as many jumpers and shoot them worse. His long range jacking is a major detriment to the team. If he can't see after all these years that he can't shoot then he is just a dumbass.

[lethalweapon3]

It isn't just about the other personnel and the bench. it is about the player pulling his head out of his *ss and doing what is best for the team. Artest is a poor comparison because his nonsense is off the court. When he gets on the floor he is all business.

Smith is one of if not the worst perimeter shooter in the NBA. I challenge you to find two players in the entire NBA who take as many jumpers and shoot them worse. His long range jacking is a major detriment to the team. If he can't see after all these years that he can't shoot then he is just a dumbass.

We're going in circles on this, but you'll recall in both the Conference Finals and the Finals in crunch time Ron-Ron was on the floor, wildly dribbling out the shot clock and firing up turnaround long-range prayers that had Lakers fans (and Phil) literally in conniptions. Nearly shot them right on out of the playoffs. On the one where he made-up for it with a tip-in at the buzzer, Phil was like, "I love you, Ron! Don't EVER do that crap you pulled again, though!" lol So yes, it's a great comparison because Ron-Ron's flameouts happen on AND off the floor, and they'll continue to happen, except now he's got a ring for his troubles.

There's no argument that if Smoove is not the worst perimeter shooter, then we should all shudder to imagine who is. The point is we all act like he (and Drew, and A$G) doesn't know this, like the next post we make listing these craptastically wondrous stats will finally drive the point home. He knows. They do, too. And for the reasons we've already hashed out here, he will be transforming to a stage where he is not a perimeter shooter at all. But that will take more time than you or I would like. And we can all tear our hair out over it in the meantime until we all look like Rick Sund, or just sit back and enjoy the bumpy ride. I choose the latter.

~lw3

[exodus]

We're going in circles on this, but you'll recall in both the Conference Finals and the Finals in crunch time Ron-Ron was on the floor, wildly dribbling out the shot clock and firing up turnaround long-range prayers that had Lakers fans (and Phil) literally in conniptions. Nearly shot them right on out of the playoffs. On the one where he made-up for it with a tip-in at the buzzer, Phil was like, "I love you, Ron! Don't EVER do that crap you pulled again, though!" lol So yes, it's a great comparison because Ron-Ron's flameouts happen on AND off the floor, and they'll continue to happen, except now he's got a ring for his troubles.

There's no argument that if Smoove is not the worst perimeter shooter, then we should all shudder to imagine who is. The point is we all act like he (and Drew, and A$G) doesn't know this, like the next post we make listing these craptastically wondrous stats will finally drive the point home. He knows. They do, too. And for the reasons we've already hashed out here, he will be transforming to a stage where he is not a perimeter shooter at all. But that will take more time than you or I would like. And we can all tear our hair out over it in the meantime until we all look like Rick Sund, or just sit back and enjoy the bumpy ride. I choose the latter.

~lw3

I don't get where this is coming from. There has never been any evidence to suggest that is going to happen. You might as well say that Teague will win the 3 point shootout one day.

Ron's erratic play in a few games is in no way a legit comparison to Smith's whole career of taking long jumpers he shouldn't take. Everyone has games where they do things they shouldn't but Smith does it all the time. Ron was in a situation he wasn't used to and got overexcited. That is far different from Smith's stubborn refusal to keep shooting from deep even though everyone knows he can't shoot.

Edited October 29, 2010 by exodus

[AHF]

I don't get where this is coming from. There has never been any evidence to suggest that is going to happen. You might as well say that Teague will win the 3 point shootout one day.

Ron's erratic play in a few games is in no way a legit comparison to Smith's whole career of taking long jumpers he shouldn't take. Everyone has games where they do things they shouldn't but Smith does it all the time. Ron was in a situation he wasn't used to and got overexcited. That is far different from Smith's stubborn refusal to keep shooting from deep even though everyone knows he can't shoot.

Artest's bad shot selection is more than a few games issue. His TS% numbers the last five years are .491, .538, .535, .512 and .514. Smith's over the same time are ..500, 506, .520, .533, .536. Smith has been better 3 of the 5 seasons and overall. Ron has shot a ton more than Smith over that time despite the fact that his efficiency is not very good so the same fundamental issue is there, IMO. He takes bad shots and does it over and over. At least Smith's numbers are trending in the right direction...

[exodus]

Artest's bad shot selection is more than a few games issue. His TS% numbers the last five years are .491, .538, .535, .512 and .514. Smith's over the same time are ..500, 506, .520, .533, .536. Smith has been better 3 of the 5 seasons and overall. Ron has shot a ton more than Smith over that time despite the fact that his efficiency is not very good so the same fundamental issue is there, IMO. He takes bad shots and does it over and over. At least Smith's numbers are trending in the right direction...

That is not even remotely a legit comparison. Artest is a gravity bound perimeter player that gets only a fraction of the easy inside baskets that Smith gets. Last year Artest had a EFG of 47% on jumpers. For comparison JJ's was 48% and Smith's was 28.5%. Artest's EFG on inside shots is only 4% better than his EFG from the outside. On the other hand Smiths EFG is 35% better on the inside.

Artest simply isn't capable of scoring inside the way Smith does because he isn't as tall and doesn't jump well. Trying to paint Artest with the same brush as Smith regarding shot selection is flat out wrong.