Is Smoove Regressing under Drew?

[LetsGoHawks]

This is my first post and I normally just use this forum to keep up with the Hawks but it seems from the responses others feel that Josh is regressing also. Sadly, I thought it was premature when LD named a still immature Josh Smith as one of three captains in hopes that it would help him assume responsibility. Josh used to be my favorite Hawk player but in the last two years I have gone tired of waiting for him to accept that he is not a "jump shooter." He is not a reliable professional shooter from three point range - and would be wiser to focus his efforts on becoming the Hawks best low post option. But clearly his focus is not team but self. Congrats to Al - much deserved and lets hope ASG shows some love to JC1 ASAP - currently my favorite Hawk player. Thanks for the post and the invitation to respond.

[exodus]

I gave you quotes about specific games, I gave you quotes about the entire season. I gave you quotes from midseason; I gave you quotes from the post-season; I gave you quotes from the preseason, I gave you quotes from LA, from Houston, from Indiana. I gave you quotes from bloggers, fans, the media, even his GM and his Coach.

With respect to your 10% argument:

I am not seeing your big improvement:

http://www.hoopdata.com/player.aspx?name=Ron%20Artest

Ron Artest fg% from 16-23 feet:

2006-07 38%

2007-08 42%

2008-09 36%

2009-10 36%

On the stat issue, I will just say I fundamentally disagree. If a guy is taking bad shots, it will lower his fg% from his base but you can't tell very much from looking solely at the fg% since you have no baseline of perfect shooting judgment to base that against.

Here are RealGM Lakers fans on Ron Artest a month after the season:

etc.

I have yet to see you post an article that was published before May 1. The season didn't start in May, it started in October. If the playoffs were all that matters than how did JJ sign for $120 million? Do you think he got that money based on his playoff performances.

Why didn't Jackson impose restrictions on Artests shot selection before the playoffs started? If it was a problem all season long it seems a little silly to wait until the playoffs to say you can't shoot as much.

Do you really want to use fans as a guide? There are Hawks fans on this board that don't want to limit Smith jumpers in spite of his 28% shooting.

Artest's EFG% on jumpers during his first year with Indy was 37.6%.

http://82games.com/02IND8A.HTM

This past year it was 46.9%.

http://www.82games.com/0910/09LAL8.HTM

That is a 9.3% improvement. Oops it isn't a full 10% i guess i stand corrected lol.

FYI JJ hasn't shot above 40% from 16-23 feet the last three years.

Edited November 2, 2010 by exodus

[AHF]

I have yet to see you post an article that was published before May 1. The season didn't start in May, it started in October. If the playoffs were all that matters than how did JJ sign for $120 million? Do you think he got that money based on his playoff performances.

Why didn't Jackson impose restrictions on Artests shot selection before the playoffs started? If it was a problem all season long it seems a little silly to wait until the playoffs to say you can't shoot as much.

Do you really want to use fans as a guide? There are Hawks fans on this board that don't want to limit Smith jumpers in spite of his 28% shooting.

Artest's EFG% on jumpers during his first year with Indy was 37.6%.

http://82games.com/02IND8A.HTM

This past year it was 46.9%.

http://www.82games.com/0910/09LAL8.HTM

That is a 9.3% improvement. Oops it isn't a full 10% i guess i stand corrected lol.

FYI JJ hasn't shot above 40% from 16-23 feet the last three years.

I have no doubt that Artest had shot selection problems in many of the years after he improved from his 2002 efg% on shots between 16-23 feet both because of better shooting and better shot selection. That is why the GM for Houston raised that as a specific problem. Go the fans of the Pacers, Kings and Rockets for reference on this. Even though his shooting improved, the shot selection remained an issue. It continues to be a problem today (although a problem of lesser significance as his role on offense has diminished) and was very famously continuing to be an issue in the biggest moments of the playoffs last season.

His shot selection remains a problem. That is the point.

Josh Smith's shot selection showed big improvement last year but still remained a problem. That is the basis of the comparison.

Until both players learn to be smarter with the ball, they will continue to fall short of what they could be. (I did give quotes in my first post of quotes that were before May but not surprisingly the shot selection of the 4th scoring option for the Lakers doesn't merit a lot of press coverage - either positive or negative. When he was written about during the regular season, it was primarily about dying his hair and other "Ron being Ron" moments.)

[exodus]

I have no doubt that Artest had shot selection problems in many of the years after he improved from his 2002 efg% on shots between 16-23 feet both because of better shooting and better shot selection.

You are going to have to translate this for me because i have no idea what this even means. There is no difference between EFG% and FG% if you are talking about shots inside the 3 pt line. And i have never made any mention of Artest shooting a better percentage inside the line.

Since Artest only shot 2% better on 3s last year as compared to his first year in Indy it is clear that the majority of his improvement in EFG is due to better shot selection. He made the decision to shoot fewer long contested 2s and it can clearly be seen when analyzing his attempts. His outside shot attempts as compared to total shots has been consistent throughout his career. However his percentage of 3 pt attempts as compared to his total shots is up sharply from 2002. That is clearly evidence of improved shot selection even though you have a hard time seeing it.

The reference to TS% was that at least Josh Smith has cut back on the bad jumpers over the years (although it is still a problem) enough to improve his shooting efficiency every year for the last 5 years while Artest shows no signs of doing the same.

JJ has shot selection problems right now and has for years. He frequently dribbles too much and puts up forced, contested shots. Does that make him comparable to Josh Smith?

Over the last 3 season's JJ and Artest are shooting virtually the same percentage on long 2s. That means Artest is either as good a shooter as JJ or he takes better shots than JJ. Do you really think Artest is as good a shooter as JJ?

Artest is not a good enough shooter to maintain a 47% EFG over two season if he is consistently taking bad shots. Most players in the NBA are shooting worse on jumpers than Artest. Nobody in the NBA takes as many jumpers as Smith and shoots them worse.

Edited November 2, 2010 by exodus

[AHF]

JJ has shot selection problems right now and has for years. He frequently dribbles too much and puts up forced, contested shots. Does that make him comparable to Josh Smith?

The fans and even management of every organization that has worked with Artest has complained about his shot selection. I don't see that pattern with JJ and, in fact, I think he was encouraged to play that way by his coaching staff in Atlanta who wanted him dribbling and shooting like that.

For a better translation of my earlier comments:

(a) Ron has clearly become a better shooter since 2002 (for example, he shot .312 on 3pt attempts that year and has shot about .350 since);

(b) Ron has improved his shot selection since 2002;

© Ron has continued to have shot selection problems with every team he has played with since 2002.

Better shooting + better shot selection + continued problems with shot selection = Better offensive play with continued underachievement of offensive performance

It is not just the fact that Ron isn't perfect with his shot selection. It isn't just that he has takes some bad shots. It is that he has been known for making bonehead shot selection decisions over and over with every team that he has ever played for - including the Lakers, Rockets, Kings, Pacers and Bulls.

Edited November 2, 2010 by AHF

[exodus]

The fans and even management of every organization that has worked with Artest has complained about his shot selection. I don't see that pattern with JJ and, in fact, I think he was encouraged to play that way by his coaching staff in Atlanta who wanted him dribbling and shooting like that.

For a better translation of my earlier comments:

(a) Ron has clearly become a better shooter since 2002 (for example, he shot .312 on 3pt attempts that year and has shot about .350 since);

Huh? Artest shot 33.6% from 3 in his first full year in Indy. He was shooting 40% from 3 in Chicago the year before when he got traded to Indy then his shot fell off a cliff after the trade.

At least now you are finally willing to concede that Artest's shot selection has improved. However the fact that you are stil trying to compare him to Smith is a joke. If the speed limit is 55 and I am going 65 that is speeding but it isn't comparable to a guy doing 120.

Let me ask you are very simple question. Why is it that JJ and Artest are shooting the same percentage on long 2s over the last 3 years?

[JackB1]

This is my first post and I normally just use this forum to keep up with the Hawks but it seems from the responses others feel that Josh is regressing also. Sadly, I thought it was premature when LD named a still immature Josh Smith as one of three captains in hopes that it would help him assume responsibility. Josh used to be my favorite Hawk player but in the last two years I have gone tired of waiting for him to accept that he is not a "jump shooter." He is not a reliable professional shooter from three point range - and would be wiser to focus his efforts on becoming the Hawks best low post option. But clearly his focus is not team but self. Congrats to Al - much deserved and lets hope ASG shows some love to JC1 ASAP - currently my favorite Hawk player. Thanks for the post and the invitation to respond.

^^^^^

Great post. Couldn't agree more. The difference between Al and Josh is that Al went to University of Florida for 4 years and got an education and played under Billy Donovan and learned the team concept and what it takes to win. Josh came straight out of High School and when you hear him speak in interviews, you realize he isn't the sharpest tool in the shed. Not only that, he seems to lack even the most basic common sense. Yes, he can jump very high and fill up a highlite reel with spectacular dunks. But he is nowhere near being a complete player. Even his blocks come from the weak side when he leaves his defender and sneaks up on the shooter. His man on man defense is not great. His rebounding is not great. His foul shooting is horrible as is his jump shooting. Josh is too stupid to focus on what he does best, which is block shots and play near and above the rim and develop his low post game. Even when you see him warming up before a game or at halftime, he is chucking up long range shots from beyond the arc. He's just a dumbass and will always be a dumbass.

Edited November 2, 2010 by JackB1

[TheNorthCydeRises]

Ex . . did you see the end of Game 5 of the Lakers vs Suns?

The irony of that game is that Artest actualy WON the game for them, after he caught Kobe's airball jumper and scored at the buzzer.

But had he not made that play, Artest would've gotten killed by everyone in LA for the absolutely mind boggling play he made just a minute earlier.

The whole reason why he'd only taken 6 shots in that game, was because he had been shooting terribly in that series. If I were on my laptop right now, I'd post the entire end game sequence of events of Game 5. If the Lakers would've lost that game, they may lose the series, because that would've been a devastating loss.

Somebody go to Youtube, and type in the search box . . "LA Lakers vs Phoenix Suns Game 5 2010 NBA Playoffs Part 12". That should list the end of tha game. And to see the reaction of Artest's shots as they happened, view Part 11 at the end.

Post it in this thread please.

[exodus]

Ex . . did you see the end of Game 5 of the Lakers vs Suns?

The irony of that game is that Artest actualy WON the game for them, after he caught Kobe's airball jumper and scored at the buzzer.

But had he not made that play, Artest would've gotten killed by everyone in LA for the absolutely mind boggling play he made just a minute earlier.

The whole reason why he'd only taken 6 shots in that game, was because he had been shooting terribly in that series. If I were on my laptop right now, I'd post the entire end game sequence of events of Game 5. If the Lakers would've lost that game, they may lose the series, because that would've been a devastating loss.

Somebody go to Youtube, and type in the search box . . "LA Lakers vs Phoenix Suns Game 5 2010 NBA Playoffs Part 12". That should list the end of tha game. And to see the reaction of Artest's shots as they happened, view Part 11 at the end.

Post it in this thread please.

I did see the end of that game. Artest was in a slump that started in April and obviously continued in the playoffs. So what? If he was hitting his open shots leading up to that game and during that game nobody would be griping about his shot selection.

I remember Josh Smith dropping 3 three pointers on KG's head when the Hawks beat them in the playoffs but that doesn't mean Smith is a good shooter.

The ultimate determination of shot selection is whether or not the shots go in consistently over time, not whether they went in during a particular game or stretch of games. You can argue that almost every player in the NBA needs to improve his shot selection. That doesn't put them in the same catagory as Josh Smith. he is in a league of his own.

[coachx]

You can argue that almost every player in the NBA needs to improve his shot selection. That doesn't put them in the same catagory as Josh Smith. he is in a league of his own.

Sounds like an appropriate ending to the "debate."

The last 5 pages of this Artest / Smith shot selection discussion is best summed up by those 3 sentences.

What makes it so bad is that it is the easiest thing to fix and in his 7th year its still his largest struggle.

Edited November 2, 2010 by coachx

[AHF]

In my mind, both Josh Smith and Ron Artest are guys who have been redflagged for their poor shot selection for years. Josh's decision to shoot long jumpers is worse than Ron's decision to shoot unnecessarily contested jumpers but both have been persistent and public problems for both players. Both have made improvements but still have a ways to go before they approach the 50th percentile of decision-makers in the NBA.

Again, Josh shoots jumpers so poorly that it is absolutely inexcusable and demonstrates terrible shot selection. Artest persistently demonstrates bad shot selection as well. It is part of their nature as players just like some players are naturally good passers or rebounders. These guys are naturally poor decision-makers as to what shots to take and what to pass on.

[exodus]

In my mind, both Josh Smith and Ron Artest are guys who have been redflagged for their poor shot selection for years. Josh's decision to shoot long jumpers is worse than Ron's decision to shoot unnecessarily contested jumpers but both have been persistent and public problems for both players. Both have made improvements but still have a ways to go before they approach the 50th percentile of decision-makers in the NBA.

Again, Josh shoots jumpers so poorly that it is absolutely inexcusable and demonstrates terrible shot selection. Artest persistently demonstrates bad shot selection as well. It is part of their nature as players just like some players are naturally good passers or rebounders. These guys are naturally poor decision-makers as to what shots to take and what to pass on.

Since Artest's percentage on jumpers is roughly similar to JJ's in spite of Artest's bad shot selection that means you must believe that Artest is currently a better shooter than JJ. Correct? If that is not correct please explain.

Edited November 2, 2010 by exodus

[AHF]

Since Artest's percentage on jumpers is roughly similar to JJ's in spite of Artest's bad shot selection that means you must believe that Artest is currently a better shooter than JJ. Correct? If that is not correct please explain.

Ron Artest was the 4th option on the Lakers most possessions last season, sandwiched right in between Andrew Bynum and Lamar Odom for fga/gm.

JJ was running iso's with the opposition's defense focused on him.

You are comparing apples to oranges with respect to the defensive attention those players receive and what they are asked to do by their coaches (i.e., Artest is supposed to defer at least to Pau and Kobe while JJ was supposed to dribble through defensive attention and work for shots in Woodson's offense).

I think if they were given the same looks, JJ would hit a higher efg% on jump shots (barring a season like 2009-10 where Artest hit roughly 40% of his 3's and a much lower % on every other kind of shot away from the rim). Put JJ with Kobe and Gasol and I expect his efg% on jumpers rises.

[exodus]

Ron Artest was the 4th option on the Lakers most possessions last season, sandwiched right in between Andrew Bynum and Lamar Odom for fga/gm.

JJ was running iso's with the opposition's defense focused on him.

You are comparing apples to oranges with respect to the defensive attention those players receive and what they are asked to do by their coaches (i.e., Artest is supposed to defer at least to Pau and Kobe while JJ was supposed to dribble through defensive attention and work for shots in Woodson's offense).

I think if they were given the same looks, JJ would hit a higher efg% on jump shots (barring a season like 2009-10 where Artest hit roughly 40% of his 3's and a much lower % on every other kind of shot away from the rim). Put JJ with Kobe and Gasol and I expect his efg% on jumpers rises.

The problem is that JJ was surrounded by guys (other than Smith) who were consistently hitting a higher percentage than he was in that 16-23 foot range yet he was still kept forcing them up after multiple dribbles against frequent double teams. I don't consider that good shot selection. Judging from what i see on general NBA boads JJ is seen by many as a ball hog who overdribbles badly and forces up too many contested jumpers.

It isn't like the Hawks lacked guys who can score. JJ isn't on the Lebron/Wade level and i think we agree that Woody was a subpar coach yet the Hawks offense still ranked as one of the best in the league. The reason is that they have a lot of guys who can score. Unfortunately they were frequently ignored by JJ.

Edited November 2, 2010 by exodus

[exodus]

I am curious about something. Assume that Artest didn't have what you believe is bad shot selection. What do you think his EFG on jumpers would be if he had acceptable shot selection?

For reference Bibby has always been known for his outside shot and plays a supporting role on offense. In the last two years his EFG on jumpers has been 50% and 51%. Do you really believe that Artest's shooting ability is in Bibby's class?

[AHF]

The problem is that JJ was surrounded by guys (other than Smith) who were consistently hitting a higher percentage than he was in that 16-23 foot range yet he was still kept forcing them up after multiple dribbles against frequent double teams. I don't consider that good shot selection. Judging from what i see on general NBA boads JJ is seen by many as a ball hog who overdribbles badly and forces up too many contested jumpers.

It isn't like the Hawks lacked guys who can score. JJ isn't on the Lebron/Wade level and i think we agree that Woody was a subpar coach yet the Hawks offense still ranked as one of the best in the league. The reason is that they have a lot of guys who can score. Unfortunately they were frequently ignored by JJ.

IMO, JJ was asked to do that by Woodson. As is obvious from his Phoenix days, he doesn't have to do that to be successful on offense ala someone like Iverson or Steve Francis who could only play by pounding the ball. I think JJ was asked to run the isos and create shots for himself. The reason the offense was successful, however, was largely not because we had a lot of guys who could score so much as we rarely turned the ball over and did a good job of rebounding our misses. Our collective shooting was not so impressive but our lack of turnovers (which admittedly was a benefit of the iso system) was huge.

As for speculating on the impact of Artest's shot selection, I think it would be markedly better if he suddenly eliminated the bad shots but I'm speculating if you ask me to pick a number. Artest has been pretty volatile with his shooting %s over the years so it isn't like (in my mind) you have a real consistent base to work from. One area you can use as a starting point, though, is upping his % on the 16-23 foot range of jump shots.

[exodus]

IMO, JJ was asked to do that by Woodson. As is obvious from his Phoenix days, he doesn't have to do that to be successful on offense ala someone like Iverson or Steve Francis who could only play by pounding the ball. I think JJ was asked to run the isos and create shots for himself. The reason the offense was successful, however, was largely not because we had a lot of guys who could score so much as we rarely turned the ball over and did a good job of rebounding our misses. Our collective shooting was not so impressive but our lack of turnovers (which admittedly was a benefit of the iso system) was huge.

As for speculating on the impact of Artest's shot selection, I think it would be markedly better if he suddenly eliminated the bad shots but I'm speculating if you ask me to pick a number. Artest has been pretty volatile with his shooting %s over the years so it isn't like (in my mind) you have a real consistent base to work from. One area you can use as a starting point, though, is upping his % on the 16-23 foot range of jump shots.

Given that Artest has an EFG % of 47% for two straight years, and has been over 40% for several years, I disagree. You have been arguing for several pages that Artest's shot selection is hampering his shooting percentages. So exactly how much better do you think he can get? You obviously have strong feelings on the subject or you wouldn't still be posting.

Artest only took 1.7 shots per game in the 16-23 foot area last season so improving his percentage there wouldn't amount to a hill of beans.

Edited November 2, 2010 by exodus

[AHF]

Why do you think it is that so many, many people in the media, in team management, and even his current coach have publicly questioned Artest's shot selection if you think it is not a significant issue for his offense?

[exodus]

Why do you think it is that so many, many people in the media, in team management, and even his current coach have publicly questioned Artest's shot selection if you think it is not a significant issue for his offense?

Avoidance thy name is AHF. 82 games are more telling than a handful of playoff games.

Please explain how improving his percentage in the 16-23 foot area will make such a difference when he took less than one shot per game in that area. And how good do you expect him to be with his jumper if he wasn't taking bad shots?

As I said before your math doesn't add up.

Edited November 2, 2010 by exodus

[JackB1]

Josh took another 3 pointer last night :(

Did anyone else notice how Josh scurried out to the 3 point line when the clock was winding down so he would have an excuse to chuck one up?