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Defensive rebounding


exodus

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I trust your stats. But let's just think a few minutes OK? We have played a lot more than 11 games right?

Besides, my point about the fact that the big lineup is key to our improved defensive rebounding doesn't revolve totally around Collins...it's about the BIG LINEUP. I believe Zaza started a few games in the big lineup earlier this year too.

The main thing is that NOW Collins is performing pretty well as a center - working against an opposing center and making it to where Al Horford doesn't have to stick his butt into all the centers in the league when the ball is up in the air (and Smoove doesn't have to worry about PFs). That gives our forwards more freedom to sweep the boards. There is no way you can pin this on the guards because our best rebounding guard was out before Marvin was injured (forcing the big lineup).

As far as Collins' statistics prior to this year - I really don't care. He lost weight and got into better shape for this season (everybody can see that) and has been playing at a considerably higher level.

You are the classic case of someone who sees what they believe instead of believing what they see. Your posts are a logic vacuum.

Not only is Collins the worst rebounding big on the roster, he has also played the fewest minutes of any big other than Etan. Yet somehow you believe that he is the difference?

Secondly you are trying to say that Smith is getting more rebounds at the 3 than he does at the 4 which again is just ridiculous. Smith got only 6.6 rebounds per game in the 05/06 season starting at the 3. the next year he went up to 8.6 rebounds per game BECAUSE HE STARTED PLAYING THE 4.

The closer you are to the basket the easier it is to get rebounds. That is just common sense. Using your logic Smith would get even more rebounds if he played point guard.

I believe Zaza started a few games in the big lineup earlier this year too.

FYI Zaza hasn't started one game the this year but i am sure that won't make any difference to you. You never let the facts get in the way of your agenda. Like i said you see what you believe.

Edited by exodus
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When looking at defensive rebounding rates (DRRs), several Hawksare among the superlatives at their positions; in most cases, not in a goodway:

Jamal: 4th Lowest DRR in the NBA overall, LowestDRR among ALL SGs

Mo: 2nd Lowest DRR among all SFs with 15+ mins/gm;3rd Lowest among SFs with 10+ GP

Bibby: 4th Lowest DRR among PGs with PGs with 25+mins/gm

Powell: 5th Lowest DRR among PFs with 30+ GP

JaCo: 10th Lowest DRR among Cs with 25+ GP

JC2: 8th Highest among SGs with 10+ GP; 9thHighest among SGs with 10+ mins/gm

Etan: 2nd Highest DRR among ALL Cs (!)

Compared to last year, DRRs are currently down for mostguards and wing players (Teague being the exception, up 23%). Rate decreases are most significantlydown for Jamal (around 35%) and Bibby (around 10%). If you replaced JoeSmith-RandMo-Othello-Rio with Powell-Etan-Damien-JC2, respectively, DRR andper-minute rates for Etan are up relative to RandMo, but down for the otherthree replacements.

The frontcourt is generally responsible for the overallincrease in DRR, with rates up 15% or more for Smoove (19%) and JaCo (59%) (alongwith Teague), and modest increases by Horf and Zaza.

On a per-game basis, the difference between theirbottom-of-the-barrel NBA ranking last year to their current middle-of-the-pack spotamounts to barely over one defensive rebound per game. (1.5 rebounds per gameseparate a top-ten rate from a bottom-ten). What's noteworthy to me is that everyHawk player has at least 1.2 defensive boards per game (last year, JaCo, Rio,Teague, and Othello contributed less than one rebound per appearance on thedefensive end). Woody's desire for perpetual benchmates has something to dowith that, but I think LD's expectation that everyone helps with defensiverebounding duties for transition purposes matters even more.

The JaCo factor is relevant in explaining the overall marginal increase. Despite his poorrebounding rates (including just 1.6 per game), he's significantly up from his wretched,JarronCollins-esque, almost less-than-zero contribution (0.4 per cameoappearance) last season. However, much more significant are Smoove's per-minute andper-game rates. Best way I can envision these factors together is, with JaCo guarding bigger Cs,Smoove is there to help Horf block out and crash the boards while JaCo contests the shot.Last year, Smoove was more likely to come help defend the bigger Cs when they were being guarded by Horf (or, as Ex would correctly note, Bibby/Craw/Joe due to our wacky switching schemes). Smoove's block and steal rates are down slightly from lastyear while his defensive rebound rates are significantly up.

In a thread last week, I also theorized that Hawk opponentswere settling for long two-point shots to a higher degree than most NBA teams(22.1 FGA/game from 16-23 feet, up from 19.7 FGA/game, currently ranks 5th).Opponents taking higher-percentage shots combined with a team-wide commitmentto defensive rebounding (particularly Smoove and JaCo) seems to account for the difference, IMO.

~lw3

(ASIDE: sorry for the words getting periodically stuck together; copying from MS Word causes that, I'm guessing the conversion of line breaks create that problem for me)

Edited by lethalweapon3
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In a thread last week, I also theorized that Hawk opponentswere settling for long two-point shots to a higher degree than most NBA teams(22.1 FGA/game from 16-23 feet, up from 19.7 FGA/game, currently ranks 5th).Opponents taking higher-percentage shots combined with a team-wide commitmentto defensive rebounding (particularly Smoove and JaCo) seems to account for the difference, IMO.

Lethal thanks for the long look into the numbers. This may be a typo or my thikheadness, but I don't get how opponents taking higher percentage shots are a factor the Hawks being slightly better at defensive rebounding.

Other than that, you seem to have hit the nail on the head.

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Lethal thanks for the long look into the numbers. This may be a typo or my thikheadness, but I don't get how opponents taking higher percentage shots are a factor the Hawks being slightly better at defensive rebounding.

Other than that, you seem to have hit the nail on the head.

I may be overreaching with that (won't be the first time), but I was suggesting the higher degree-of-difficulty shots can translate into a greater proportion of missed FGAs, and with disciplined players, teams like the Hawks can take advantage of that by boxing out and snaring more rebounds. The opponent's shooter, in those 16-23-footer scenarios, is less likely to help an offensive rebounder.

~lw3

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Sure the ranking is much better this year but the actual number of extra defensive rebounds per game is 1.1. That is not such a huge number that we need to try and analyze every player and schemes and line up changes to figure out where it is coming from. It's a nice bonus and it contributes to the 2 or so less points per game the Hawks are giving up this year but I'll take last years rebounding effort over this years because...

Defensive rebounding is up, but overall rebounding is down. That means our offensive boards are down.. alot (2.4 per game). This is what warrants discussion here. 2.4 offensive rebounds is like 2.4 shot attempts per game. We're taking about 2 shots less per game this year compared to last year and we're scoring about 4 pts less per game.

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Sure the ranking is much better this year but the actual number of extra defensive rebounds per game is 1.1. That is not such a huge number that we need to try and analyze every player and schemes and line up changes to figure out where it is coming from. It's a nice bonus and it contributes to the 2 or so less points per game the Hawks are giving up this year but I'll take last years rebounding effort over this years because...

Defensive rebounding is up, but overall rebounding is down. That means our offensive boards are down.. alot (2.4 per game). This is what warrants discussion here. 2.4 offensive rebounds is like 2.4 shot attempts per game. We're taking about 2 shots less per game this year compared to last year and we're scoring about 4 pts less per game.

Team-wise, it's almost converse to the DRR situation, and the reversal is even more stark. They're bottom-5 in the league in Offensive Rebound Rate (ORR; top-5 last year). And no Hawk players with regular minutes (sorry, JC2) are among the top 20 at their positions for ORR. Among returning players, pretty much everyone's ORebs per-game numbers are down. I'm not usually too hung up on offensive rebounding if the shots are falling (like Boston; not much there to rebound), but the Hawks are not shooting THAT much better than last year to explain the drop.

Smoove accounts for the lion's share of the drop in offensive boards (2.8 last year; 1.8 so far this year). Parking himself on offensive sets at Techwood Avenue probably has quite a bit to do with that. Other contributers include relying less on notorious offensive go-getters like Zaza, not making full use of J-Pow, and pulling Horf (2.5 so far; 2.9 last year) further away from the basket at PF in favor of subpar rebounders like JaCo at C.

Is another possible factor that Hawk coaches prefer getting our wings and Smoove back on D, in lieu of crashing the boards, to help defensively liable guards like Bibby and Craw when opponents break out in transition after getting the defensive rebound? I find it plausible, especially for a team that likes to keep the pace down.

~lw3

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Team-wise, it's almost converse to the DRR situation, and the reversal is even more stark. They're bottom-5 in the league in Offensive Rebound Rate (ORR; top-5 last year). And no Hawk players with regular minutes (sorry, JC2) are among the top 20 at their positions for ORR. Among returning players, pretty much everyone's ORebs per-game numbers are down. I'm not usually too hung up on offensive rebounding if the shots are falling (like Boston; not much there to rebound), but the Hawks are not shooting THAT much better than last year to explain the drop.

Smoove accounts for the lion's share of the drop in offensive boards (2.8 last year; 1.8 so far this year). Parking himself on offensive sets at Techwood Avenue probably has quite a bit to do with that. Other contributers include relying less on notorious offensive go-getters like Zaza, not making full use of J-Pow, and pulling Horf (2.5 so far; 2.9 last year) further away from the basket at PF in favor of subpar rebounders like JaCo at C.

Is another possible factor that Hawk coaches prefer getting our wings and Smoove back on D, in lieu of crashing the boards, to help defensively liable guards like Bibby and Craw when opponents break out in transition after getting the defensive rebound? I find it plausible, especially for a team that likes to keep the pace down.

~lw3

I believe getting back on D more is probably a good guess, although Smith hanging out at the 3 point line also is a factor . Some teams (like Boston) don't go for offensive rebounds much, preferring to get back and set up the defense. I have no problem with this.

Edited by exodus
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Sure the ranking is much better this year but the actual number of extra defensive rebounds per game is 1.1. That is not such a huge number that we need to try and analyze every player and schemes and line up changes to figure out where it is coming from. It's a nice bonus and it contributes to the 2 or so less points per game the Hawks are giving up this year but I'll take last years rebounding effort over this years because...

Defensive rebounding is up, but overall rebounding is down. That means our offensive boards are down.. alot (2.4 per game). This is what warrants discussion here. 2.4 offensive rebounds is like 2.4 shot attempts per game. We're taking about 2 shots less per game this year compared to last year and we're scoring about 4 pts less per game.

Orlando leads the league in defensive rebounding rate. they average 1.5 more defensive rebounds than the Hawks. Do you think that gap is insignificant?

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On the flip side, our offensive rebounding numbers have plummeted. I attribute this in large measure to the fact that Horford and Smoove are shooting significantly more outside jumpers than they did last year. We are 27th in the league in ORebs/gm. We’re actually 15th in the league in DRebs/gm, but our ORebs are so terrible that we’re 24th in rebounding overall. By comparison, we were 6th in the NBA in ORebs last year. Most of the dropoff is traceable to Josh and Al. Josh and Al are averaging 1.5 fewer ORebs/gm than last year; the team as a whole is averaging 2.4 fewer.

It's not just in ORebs that the effect of jumpers can be seen. JJ and Jamal are #1 and #2 on the team in FTAs/gm. And they aren’t exactly getting there all the time. Al is getting to the line less frequently than Marvin.

Al’s jumper looks great, and Josh’s is much improved. But their fondness for shooting jumpers is having a lot of bad downstream effects.

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On the flip side, our offensive rebounding numbers have plummeted. I attribute this in large measure to the fact that Horford and Smoove are shooting significantly more outside jumpers than they did last year. We are 27th in the league in ORebs/gm. We’re actually 15th in the league in DRebs/gm, but our ORebs are so terrible that we’re 24th in rebounding overall. By comparison, we were 6th in the NBA in ORebs last year. Most of the dropoff is traceable to Josh and Al. Josh and Al are averaging 1.5 fewer ORebs/gm than last year; the team as a whole is averaging 2.4 fewer.

It's not just in ORebs that the effect of jumpers can be seen. JJ and Jamal are #1 and #2 on the team in FTAs/gm. And they aren’t exactly getting there all the time. Al is getting to the line less frequently than Marvin.

Al’s jumper looks great, and Josh’s is much improved. But their fondness for shooting jumpers is having a lot of bad downstream effects.

Now that Horford has established his ability to hit the midrange shot he needs to develop his game off the dribble to fully take advantage of bigs coming out on him. He is trying to take guys off the dribble at times lately but it is still a work in progress. he seems to never put up a shot fake which makes things harder than they need to be.

Smith.....ugh. Don't let me get started on him.

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I see that being a forum loudmouth/know-it-all has it's priveledges around here! Enjoy with me these posts where Exodus clearly attacks the poster --- and NOT the content of a post.

______

"You are the classic case of someone who sees what they believe instead of believing what they see."

"You never let the facts get in the way of your agenda"

"Can you even read?"

------------

And a bonus....

"...... but it looks like you forgot that too just like you forgot that i was the one who brought the subject up in the first place."

Now I'm beginng to understand....

CS

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I see that being a forum loudmouth/know-it-all has it's priveledges around here! Enjoy with me these posts where Exodus clearly attacks the poster --- and NOT the content of a post.

______

"You are the classic case of someone who sees what they believe instead of believing what they see."

"You never let the facts get in the way of your agenda"

"Can you even read?"

------------

And a bonus....

"...... but it looks like you forgot that too just like you forgot that i was the one who brought the subject up in the first place."

Now I'm beginng to understand....

CS

Somehow i doubt you understand, just like you didnt understand our previous argument . This guy has been posting the exact same anti-Mavin nonsense for years. This is just chapter 1,453,789.

The idea that giving spot minutes to a lousy rebounder is suddenly improving the Hawks rebounding is absurd, but it fits his agenda because if moves Smith to the 3 and Marvin to the bench. He has no facts to back it up, ignores Collins entire career and even creates fictional starts for Zaza to back up his agenda.

Everyone knows Marvin was a bad pick and isn't that good. there is no reason to try to constantly twist, create or ignore facts to degrade Marvin further.

LOL @ calling someone a loudmouth and then accusing them of attacking the poster and not the post. I would expect nothing less from you though.

pot-kettle-black.jpg

Edited by exodus
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...The idea that giving spot minutes to a lousy rebounder is suddenly improving the Hawks rebounding is absurd, but it fits his agenda because if moves Smith to the 3 and Marvin to the bench. He has no facts to back it up, ignores Collins entire career and even creates fictional starts for Zaza to back up his agenda. ..

Check out the article in the AJC today about Collins...it basically backs up everything I've been saying...even with quotes from LD line%20dance.gif .

"What we accomplish with the big lineup, I think we accomplish more on both ends of the floor than we do with my regular lineup on both ends of the floor," Drew said.

While the big lineup gives Horford room to play his game -- his shooting percentage is 59.2 percent when Collins starts and 54.9 when he doesn't -- and also presents mismatches with Smith at small forward, Collins' play is undoubtedly a factor..."

Edited by DJlaysitup
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Check out the article in the AJC today about Collins...it basically backs up everything I've been saying...even with quotes from LD line%20dance.gif .

"What we accomplish with the big lineup, I think we accomplish more on both ends of the floor than we do with my regular lineup on both ends of the floor," Drew said.

While the big lineup gives Horford room to play his game -- his shooting percentage is 59.2 percent when Collins starts and 54.9 when he doesn't -- and also presents mismatches with Smith at small forward, Collins' play is undoubtedly a factor..."

Like i said you see what you believe. Where exactly is rebounding mentioned in your quote?

As a side note when is your boy Belkin going to take over the team?

:laughing5:

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Actually . . . DJ is right. It is because of the big lineup.

What the big lineup has done, is give the Hawks a legit guy to defend low post scoring bigs. And with Horford moving to PF for more minutes, he has turned into an ELITE defensive PF. And most important of all, Josh Smith has held his own vs SFs, posting slightly better defensive numbers than when Marvin guards SFs, while significantly outrebounding the opposing SF.

Collins +/- rating is ridiculous for the amount of minutes he's played ( +97 despite playing only playing 341 minutes. ) His presence has not only allowed the Hawks to get stop at the beginning of halves, our opponents are pretty much limited to "one and done" on the offensive end.

The wild card in all of this is that we've only played 3 or 4 good teams during this 8- 3 record over the last 11 games. The real test is when we start playing the more talented teams again . . especially the ones with talented frontcourts.

How will the big lineup fare against Boston ( when we play them again ), and maybe more importantly Miami and especially Chicago? When we go out West again, can the team hold its own vs the better teams?

I still say that Drew shouldn't start Collins against smaller, quicker centers. Horford is still very effective defensively vs those guys. But against the traditional low post threats, Collins is the way to go, which protects Horford from early foul trouble.

I was about to start a thread on this, but I think I'll post it here. Actually, I may copy and paste what I'll write here, and start the thread anyway.

While Collins is a well below average rebounder for a center ( 8.9 rebs/gm per 48 minutes ), the opposing center is grabbing 10.9 rebs per 48 minutes.

Why is this significant?

Because although Horford is still a very good rebounding center ( 13.8 rebs/gm per 48 minutes ), he gives up 13.4 rebs per 48 minutes.

But even more significant, is the defensive difference of Horford playing PF, than Josh Smith. Horford is limiting the opposing PF to 41% FG. Smith is having trouble stopping PFs ( 53% FG ) and they grab 11.1 boards per 48 minutes. Horford's opposing PFs grabs 10.8 rebs per 48 minutes.

At PF, Horford is still grabbing 12.9 rebs per 48 minutes, outrebounding his opponent by 2.1 rebs ( which is the difference Collins gets rebounded by ). But remember, Collins significantly limits the amount of rebounds that centers get, compared to Horford.

Which leads us to Smith. Smith holds his own defensively at SF ( 47% eFG ), comparable to Marvin's 48%. But his rebounding at SF is the difference. Smith averages 10.1 rebs per 48 minutes at SF. His opponent averages only 7.1 rebs per 48 minutes. That's a 3 rebound difference.

With Marvin, he grabs 7.7 rebs per 48 minutes, while his opposing SF grabs 8 rebs per 48 minutes.

So let's review:

These are the rebounding numbers per 48 minutes for the opposing C - PF - SF when Horford plays C - Smith plays PF - Marvin plays SF:

C - 13.4

PF - 11.1

SF - 8.0

Total: 32.5 rebs per 48 minutes

These are the rebounding numbers per 48 minutes for the opposing C - PF - SF when Collins plays C - Horford plays PF - Smith plays SF:

C - 10.9

PF - 10.8

SF - 7.1

Total: 28.8 rebs per 48 minutes

Ex is probably right in the fact that there is less switching going on. But there is less switching going on, because the big lineup is holding its own at the beginning of halves. The big lineup is by far the best defensive lineup we can throw at teams.

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Actually . . . DJ is right. It is because of the big lineup.

What the big lineup has done, is give the Hawks a legit guy to defend low post scoring bigs. And with Horford moving to PF for more minutes, he has turned into an ELITE defensive PF. And most important of all, Josh Smith has held his own vs SFs, posting slightly better defensive numbers than when Marvin guards SFs, while significantly outrebounding the opposing SF.

Collins +/- rating is ridiculous for the amount of minutes he's played ( +97 despite playing only playing 341 minutes. ) His presence has not only allowed the Hawks to get stop at the beginning of halves, our opponents are pretty much limited to "one and done" on the offensive end.

The wild card in all of this is that we've only played 3 or 4 good teams during this 8- 3 record over the last 11 games. The real test is when we start playing the more talented teams again . . especially the ones with talented frontcourts.

How will the big lineup fare against Boston ( when we play them again ), and maybe more importantly Miami and especially Chicago? When we go out West again, can the team hold its own vs the better teams?

I still say that Drew shouldn't start Collins against smaller, quicker centers. Horford is still very effective defensively vs those guys. But against the traditional low post threats, Collins is the way to go, which protects Horford from early foul trouble.

I was about to start a thread on this, but I think I'll post it here. Actually, I may copy and paste what I'll write here, and start the thread anyway.

While Collins is a well below average rebounder for a center ( 8.9 rebs/gm per 48 minutes ), the opposing center is grabbing 10.9 rebs per 48 minutes.

Why is this significant?

Because although Horford is still a very good rebounding center ( 13.8 rebs/gm per 48 minutes ), he gives up 13.4 rebs per 48 minutes.

But even more significant, is the defensive difference of Horford playing PF, than Josh Smith. Horford is limiting the opposing PF to 41% FG. Smith is having trouble stopping PFs ( 53% FG ) and they grab 11.1 boards per 48 minutes. Horford's opposing PFs grabs 10.8 rebs per 48 minutes.

At PF, Horford is still grabbing 12.9 rebs per 48 minutes, outrebounding his opponent by 2.1 rebs ( which is the difference Collins gets rebounded by ). But remember, Collins significantly limits the amount of rebounds that centers get, compared to Horford.

Which leads us to Smith. Smith holds his own defensively at SF ( 47% eFG ), comparable to Marvin's 48%. But his rebounding at SF is the difference. Smith averages 10.1 rebs per 48 minutes at SF. His opponent averages only 7.1 rebs per 48 minutes. That's a 3 rebound difference.

With Marvin, he grabs 7.7 rebs per 48 minutes, while his opposing SF grabs 8 rebs per 48 minutes.

So let's review:

These are the rebounding numbers per 48 minutes for the opposing C - PF - SF when Horford plays C - Smith plays PF - Marvin plays SF:

C - 13.4

PF - 11.1

SF - 8.0

Total: 32.5 rebs per 48 minutes

These are the rebounding numbers per 48 minutes for the opposing C - PF - SF when Collins plays C - Horford plays PF - Smith plays SF:

C - 10.9

PF - 10.8

SF - 7.1

Total: 28.8 rebs per 48 minutes

Ex is probably right in the fact that there is less switching going on. But there is less switching going on, because the big lineup is holding its own at the beginning of halves. The big lineup is by far the best defensive lineup we can throw at teams.

then riddle me this. Why is the team getting exactly the same number of defensive rebounds in the games Collins doesn't play? They average over 31 defensive rebounds per game in those games and that includes a game in which they got only 20 defensive rebounds.

Collins is the worst rebounding big on the roster and has also played the fewest minutes of any big on the opening day roster. The idea that he has had a big impact on the teams defensive rebounding is ridiculous.

Edited by exodus
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I hope Drew recognizes when to play big and when to go small. The grouping of Horford - Smith - Marvin is still the better overall rebounding group.

But it has been well documented that when Horford plays a physycal center, and Smith plays a physical PF, both of their rebounding numbers tend to plummet. So while Horford - Smith - Marvin

If we play a team in which the opposing center isn't a scoring threat at all, it's best that Horford goes up against him. That was my beef in the last Boston game, in which Shaq was hurt, and Doc started "that Semen kid" ( as Barkley called him ). Dude was not a scoring threat, and Horford would've abused him at center on the offensive end.

But because Horford was matched up on KG, and Smith on Pierce, it was a recipe for disaster. But if Shaq is in the lineup, Boston will run some offense through him, which will reduce a few of the touches of KG and Pierce. That's where Collins needs to make his money, by defending Shaq, and putting a body on him so he can't grab offensive rebounds. At that point, it's up to Horford and Smith to secure that defensive rebound.

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I have no problem with the way Drew is using Collins. If you remember from the time we first drafted Horford I have been saying that the Hawks needed a defensive C with size to defend the big centers that Horford can't handle.

But lets get real here Collins is just a big body to throw at other big bodies. That is all. He is this years version of Royal Ivey at a different position.

Collins has played 341 minutes on the season. That is an average of 9 per game. Even Deke would have a tough time making much of an impact on the boards in only 9 minutes per game.

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Ex . . all of this info is on 82games.com.

The big lineup is holding opponents to 40% eFG. That's far and away the best defensive lineup of the Hawks, amongst the top 15 lineups we throw at people.

The difference is not necessarily Collins himself rebounding the basketball. It's the fact that Horford and Smith are still rebounding the basketball, while significantly outdoing their opponent.

It's all right there man.

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Ex . . all of this info is on 82games.com.

The big lineup is holding opponents to 40% eFG. That's far and away the best defensive lineup of the Hawks, amongst the top 15 lineups we throw at people.

The difference is not necessarily Collins himself rebounding the basketball. It's the fact that Horford and Smith are still rebounding the basketball, while significantly outdoing their opponent.

It's all right there man.

You are looking at per 48 stats on a player who plays 9 minutes per game. He is Royal Ivey. Ultimately you have to be on the floor to make an impact. Collins has played fewer minutes than any big on the roster other than Etan.

How can Collins make an impact on the game if he isn't actually in the game?

And you are getting sidetracked talking about defense overall vs defensive rebounding.

Edited by exodus
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