Stat du Jour: Get Fouled or Die Trying

[lethalweapon3]

I know many of us get in a lather about players like Josh and Joe when they settle for perimeter shots and fail to go inside on offense... and also the lack of foul calls on the rare occasions they do.

Stats below demonstrate pretty much what we're seeing with our eyes... the Hawks have been drawing fewer fouls over the years and are well below NBA averages. (sources: databasebasketball; Yahoo!) Last season's per-game average was the 9th lowest among NBA teams in the 40 years of NBA stats available for this category. They're not far from that so far this year, although it's worth noting that the difference between 1st and 30th in the league amounts to just around one additional foul call per quarter.

I was fascinated not only about the Hawks' low ranking among NBA teams in the past few years, but how a significant number of teams are drawing fewer fouls per game, particularly in the last 5 to 10 years. For the latter, league-wide trend, any explanatory factors? (fewer post-up plays and players? greater use of the 3-point line? defensive 3-seconds? clarification of hand-checking and blocking foul rules?)

Number of NBA Teams Drawing Under 20 Personal Fouls per Game...

1970-71 to 1979-80: 1 Team

1980-81 to 1989-90: 0 Teams

1990-91 to 1999-00: 4 Teams

2000-01 to 2004-05: 10 Teams

2005-06 to 2009-10: 20 Teams

Conference Finalists among above: 3 (2005-06 Suns, 2007-08 Pistons and Spurs)

2010-2011 (to date): 4 Teams...

Warriors: 18.4

Mavericks: 19.2

Pistons: 19.5

HAWKS: 19.5

Opponent Personal Fouls per Game, by Season...

Hawks 2005-06: 22.6 [NBA Rank: 18th] [NBA Leader: Jazz, 25.7]

Hawks 2006-07: 22.6 [NBA Rank: 12th] [NBA Leader: Jazz, 24.5]

Hawks 2007-08: 21.9 [NBA Rank: 9th] [NBA Leader: Nuggets, 23.8]

Hawks 2008-09: 20.5 [NBA Rank: 17th] [NBA Leader: Jazz, 24.1]

Hawks 2009-10: 19.3 = 9^thLowest All-Time (since 1970) [NBA Rank: 28th] [NBA Leader: Nuggets, 23.7]

Hawks 2010-11 (to date): 19.5 [NBA Rank: 27th] [NBA Leader: Nuggets, 23.2, would have ranked 12th in 2005-06]

Fewest Free Throw Attempts per Game, 2010-11...

Warriors: 21.2

Mavericks: 21.6

Pacers: 21.7

Celtics: 22.3

HAWKS: 22.5

Free Throw Attempts per Game, by Season...

Hawks 2005-06: 26.9 [NBA Rank: 10th]

Hawks 2006-07: 26.9 [NBA Rank: 10th]

Hawks 2007-08: 27.2 [NBA Rank: 7th]

Hawks 2008-09: 25.4 [NBA Rank: 9th]

Hawks 2009-10: 23.3 [NBA Rank: 23rd]

Hawks 2010-11 (to date): 22.5 [NBA Rank: 26th]

~lw3

Edited January 20, 2011 by lethalweapon3

[lethalweapon3]

A couple more factoids I forgot (source: basketball-reference)...

The Hawks are currently 18-1 when drawing more than 20 fouls from opponents, 10-14 when they don't. They're also 15-1 when they attempt more than 25 free throws in a game.

~lw3

[Admin]

A couple more factoids I forgot (source: basketball-reference)...

The Hawks are currently 18-1 when drawing more than 20 fouls from opponents, 10-14 when they don't. They're also 15-1 when they attempt more than 25 free throws in a game.

~lw3

If I'm Josh Smith and I read that, I'm thinking damn I need to shoot more jump shots cause they're not calling fouls on us anyway and I am an awesome jump shooter! :snowballfight:

[Brokentree]

Dwight Howard scored 18 points on 5 fg attempts in the Magic's game against Philly the other day . He shot 4/5 for 8 points and then hit 10/22 free throws. If he had hit all of his shots he would have had 32 pts. Makes me wonder what the record is for most points scored per fg attempt.

Only 1 current Hawks player has every attempted 20 free throws in a game. It probably isn't who most think it would be. Here is a hint. Quack.

The Hawks have been a fairly good free throw shooting team going by %. Its a shame they don't make more of an effort to draw fouls and get to the line more often. Fouls not only lead to free points but can also disrupt the opposing team by forcing them to make substitutions.

[lethalweapon3]

**Quiz Question: Which player currently leads the Hawks in Free Throw Attempts per Game?

a. Al Horford, starting C-PF

b. Josh Smith, starting PF-SF

c. Joe Johnson, leading scorer

d. Jamal Crawford, backup guard

**Metrics Revisited: The Hawks are now next to last in the league (29th) in Free Throw Attempts (21.9) and Fouls Drawn (19.2). Good news is the Hawks are still dominant when taking >25 Free Throws (16-1; 17-18 otherwise) and when getting fouled more than 20 times (19-2; 14-17 otherwise). The bad news is this is 20 days later -- of the nine games played in that span, the Hawks exceeded 25 Free Throws once, and 20 Drawn Fouls twice.

**Metrics Split (Free Throw Attempts per Game; Opponents' Personal Fouls per Game)...

October (3 games) (30.7; 24.0)

November (15 games) (21.5; 18.9)

December (17 games) (21.4; 19.1)

January (13 games) (22.3; 19.3)

February (4 games) (18.0; 16.8)

Wins (33 games) (23.8; 20.3)

Losses (19 games) (18.7; 17.3)

~lw3

[hawkshomer]

Dwight Howard scored 18 points on 5 fg attempts in the Magic's game against Philly the other day . He shot 4/5 for 8 points and then hit 10/22 free throws. If he had hit all of his shots he would have had 32 pts. Makes me wonder what the record is for most points scored per fg attempt.

Only 1 current Hawks player has every attempted 20 free throws in a game. It probably isn't who most think it would be. Here is a hint. Quack.

The Hawks have been a fairly good free throw shooting team going by %. Its a shame they don't make more of an effort to draw fouls and get to the line more often. Fouls not only lead to free points but can also disrupt the opposing team by forcing them to make substitutions.

Marvin? What game? Was it the SA game last year?

[mrhonline]

Well, free throw attempts is a pretty useless stat. And talking about it in terms of "per game" is also a waste of time.

What you want is free throws made per minute. It also matters what role they play.

Per 36:

Jamal - 4.3 vs. Joe - 3.3

Zaza - 3.7 vs. Horford - 2.2 vs. Collins - 1.6

Smith - 3.1 vs. Powell - 2.0

Marvin - 2.9 vs. Wilkens - 2.4 vs. Evans - 1.0

Teague - 2.5 vs. Bibby - 0.7

So, if you want more FT/game, you need to give more minutes to Zaza (over Collins), Teague (over Bibby), Wilkins (over Evans), and Jamal (over Joe), in that order.

[lethalweapon3]

**Quiz Question: Which player currently leads the Hawks in Free Throw Attempts per Game?

a. Al Horford, starting C-PF

b. Josh Smith, starting PF-SF

c. Joe Johnson, leading scorer

d. Jamal Crawford, backup guard

FTA/G

Crawford 4.3

Smith 4.1

Johnson 4.1

Williams 2.9

Horford 2.7

Pachulia 2.0

~lw3

[lethalweapon3]

Well, free throw attempts is a pretty useless stat. And talking about it in terms of "per game" is also a waste of time.

What you want is free throws made per minute. It also matters what role they play.

Backing up "makes", the Hawks are also 18-1 when they make 20 or more free throws per game, 15-18 when they don't.

Yet you can't make what you don't try. And unless you're routinely playing against Stephen Jackson and Sheed and guys who can't get out of the paint in less than 3 seconds, you're not trying unless you draw fouls. The Hawks starting frontcourt, relative to other NBA teams, is not doing so.

Unless teams are playing significantly different numbers of overtime games, whether it's per-game or per-minute, next-to-last in the league is next-to-last in the league. And in these specific stats for this particular team, specific threshholds establish a significantly different result in terms of the likelihood of winning. Are there any other splits where the difference in winning games for this team is more stark?

Thankfully, because they have above-average shooting (7th in the NBA), free throws made per game have them ranked 27th, instead of last or next-to-last. But when they don't get to the line enough, they are turning likely victories into crapshoots.

All that blathering said, showing per-minute stats at the player level, whether for makes or attempts, makes the paucity of play calls leading to fouls from our starting centers and power forwards all the more evident.

(Hawks' FTMper36/FTAper36)

JamalCrawford (4.3/5.0)

Thomas (4.1/5.1)

Pachulia (3.7/5.1)

Johnson (3.3/4.1)

Smith (3.1/4.2)

Williams (2.9/3.5)

Teague (2.5/3.2)

Wilkins (2.4/3.3)

Horford (2.2/2.7)

Powell (2.0/2.5)

Collins (1.6/2.6)

Evans (1.0/1.1)

JordanCrawford (0.9/1.4)

Bibby (0.7/1.0)

I haven't looked, but are there other teams (Houston?) where five or six bench players are more likely to attempt (and make) free throws than the starting center (Horford/Collins)? Where the sixth-man GUARD is virtually twice as likely to take (and make) such shots as the starting center? Maybe it's not the novelty I see it to be, but when this happens, thank goodness the starter is shooting a pretty good FG%, or the team could be in big trouble every night.

One can look at those numbers and say we need to give the guys like Etan and Zaza a greater share of minutes ("ick!"). Instead of that, if I'm looking at those numbers I'm wondering what plays are most likely to result in whistles for our frontcourt starters... and how to mix those plays in more often.

Horford followed my figurative suggestion, and nearly "died trying" on the last play he was on the floor. Thankfully, the final two of the team's measly 13 attempts secured a close crapshoot victory. But it seems many of these games wouldn't have to come down to kamikaze plays in the end if they just approach their offense differently from the start.

~lw3

Edited February 9, 2011 by lethalweapon3

[lethalweapon3]

**Metrics Re-re-visited: Given the choice of "Get Fouled or Die Trying," the Hawks have embraced a third option, "Die NOT Trying," and have wrested the title of last in the league from the Warriors, in Free Throw Attempts (now down to 20.8 ) and Fouls Drawn (now down to 18.5). For those into Free Throws Made (16.2), they're still 29th and ahead of the Warriors (15.8 ) thanks to a superior Top-10 free throw shooting percentage. Good news is the Hawks are still dominant when taking >25 Free Throws (17-2; 22-28 otherwise) and when getting fouled more than 20 times (20-4; 19-26 otherwise). The bad news is this is almost 40 days later -- of the 17 games played in this period, the Hawks exceeded 25 Free Throws twice, and 20 Drawn Fouls thrice. They are 6-11 in that span. And so far, this month their shots from the line are even lower than the number of times they get a hack call.

Individually, on a per-minute basis, no player has increased their FTM or FTAs over the past month. Smoove has taken over the lead in FTAs per game (4.1) but only because the opportunities from the line for Jamal (3.7) has gone down. Smoove's team-leading per-game FTAs does not rank in the Top 50 in the NBA.

**Metrics Split (Free Throw Attempts per Game; Opponents' Personal Fouls per Game)...

October (3 games) (30.7; 24.0)

November (15 games) (21.5; 18.9)

December (17 games) (21.4; 19.1)

January (13 games) (22.3; 19.3)

February (12 games) (18.7; 16.6)

March (9 games) (15.7; 16.3)

Wins (39 games) (22.5; 19.7)

Losses (30 games) (18.5; 17.0)

(Hawks' FTMper36/FTAper36)

Thomas (4.3/6.0)

JamalCrawford (3.8/4.4)

Pachulia (3.7/4.9)

Armstrong (1.1/4.5)

Johnson (2.8/3.4)

Smith (3.1/4.3)

Williams (2.7/3.2)

Teague (2.5/3.2)

Wilkins (2.0/2.8 )

Horford (2.0/2.5)

Powell (1.9/2.3)

Collins (1.6/2.5)

Evans (1.0/1.2)

JordanCrawford (0.9/1.4)

Hinrich (0.6/1.2)

Bibby (0.6/1.0)

~lw3

Edited March 20, 2011 by lethalweapon3

[NineOhTheRino]

12-21 vs .500+ teams

[benhillboy]

[quote name='lethalweapon3' timestamp='1295548356' post=

I was fascinated not only about the Hawks' low ranking among NBA teams in the past few years, but how a significant number of teams are drawing fewer fouls per game, particularly in the last 5 to 10 years. For the latter, league-wide trend, any explanatory factors? (fewer post-up plays and players? greater use of the 3-point line? defensive 3-seconds? clarification of hand-checking and blocking foul rules?)

Sorry I butchered the quote lethal, but all of those points exactly, as well as poor or no tutuledge at all at the college level. Just an erosion of skills and smarts. If you told half of the players in the NBA that when behind, they could compromise the opposing team's best players' court time by getting him into foul trouble, stop the clock, and score 1 to 3 points by being opportunistic and aggressive on a single play (hell, maybe even 4 in Jamal's case), it would probably be a revelation. Strong post games and free throw shooting will be all but extinct in 10 years due to this current alley-oop and three point Sportscenter culture.

Edited March 19, 2011 by benhillboy

[lethalweapon3]

Learning something new every day; fixed the Bubble Gum Poppers, which come about whenever you type an '8' and a close-parens.

Also, the per-game average for fouls drawn, if it stays as-is, will be the 4th or 5th lowest all-time. And the Hawks are not that far off from breaking the record.

Fewest Opponents' Personal Fouls per Game:

T'Wolves 2007-08: 17.5

Raptors 2007-08: 18.4

Spurs 2008-09: 18.4

Suns 2001-02: 18.5

HAWKS 2010-11: 18.5 (through 69 games)

~lw3

Edited March 20, 2011 by lethalweapon3

[thecampster]

Well, free throw attempts is a pretty useless stat. And talking about it in terms of "per game" is also a waste of time.

What you want is free throws made per minute. It also matters what role they play.

Per 36:

Jamal - 4.3 vs. Joe - 3.3

Zaza - 3.7 vs. Horford - 2.2 vs. Collins - 1.6

Smith - 3.1 vs. Powell - 2.0

Marvin - 2.9 vs. Wilkens - 2.4 vs. Evans - 1.0

Teague - 2.5 vs. Bibby - 0.7

So, if you want more FT/game, you need to give more minutes to Zaza (over Collins), Teague (over Bibby), Wilkins (over Evans), and Jamal (over Joe), in that order.

Those stats are skewed. Jamal and Joe shoot the free throws at the end of games when we have leads and shoot all the Tech foul shots.

Those are not foul shots earned but instead, given.

Edited March 20, 2011 by thecampster

[lethalweapon3]

Thank you Zaza, and thank you Pistons! That makes ATL 18-2 when shooting more than 25 free throws, and 21-4 when drawing a personal-foul whistle more than 20 times. I'm curious to see what that looks like for fellow "playoff-caliber" teams.

~lw3

[lethalweapon3]

(Fratello just stole my party line on TNT...)

Looked at the Top 15 Playoff teams, applying the threshholds of >25 FTAs and >20 Opponent PFs, and the main conclusion is the Hawks are the only team where the difference in record goes from dominant team to significantly sub-.500. The closest comparison in terms of effect on winning percentage is OKC, yet you can see how many more games they have exceeded the threshholds.

Records with and (without) >25 FTAs, Win% Differential

ATLANTA 18-2 (22-28), +0.460

Oklahoma City 35-11 (10-13), +0.326

Dallas 23-3 (26-18), +0.294

Portland 13-5 (27-25), +0.203

Orlando 27-10 (18-16), +0.200

San Antonio 23-2 (34-11), +0.164

LA Lakers 24-6 (26-14), +0.150

Philadelphia 14-9 (22-25), +0.141

Boston 18-4 (32-15), +0.137

Miami 30-11 (18-11), +0.135

Denver 28-16 (14-13), +0.118

Memphis 18-13 (21-19), +0.056

New York 14-15 (21-20), -0.029

New Orleans 11-11 (29-20), -0.092

Chicago 18-9 (32-10), -0.095

Records with and (without) >20 Opponent PFs, Win% Differential

ATLANTA 21-4 (19-26), +0.418

Boston 30-4 (20-15), +0.311

Oklahoma City 31-9 (14-15), +0.292

LA Lakers 28-7 (22-13), +0.171

San Antonio 33-4 (24-9), +0.165

Portland 24-13 (16-17), +0.164

Orlando 32-15 (13-11), +0.139

Dallas 27-9 (22-12), +0.103

Miami 31-12 (17-10), +0.091

Philadelphia 13-10 (23-24), +0.076

Chicago 23-8 (27-11), +0.031

Denver 26-18 (16-11), -0.002

New Orleans 19-15 (21-16), -0.009

Memphis 20-17 (19-15), -0.018

New York 15-16 (20-19), -0.029

~lw3

Edited March 23, 2011 by lethalweapon3

[lethalweapon3]

More of the same… final tallies for Fouls Drawn and Free Throws:

Fewest Opponents' Personal Fouls per Game, All-Time (total fouls in parentheses):

T'Wolves 2007-08: 17.49 (1434)

Raptors 2007-08: 18.39 (1508 )

Spurs 2008-09: 18.42 (1511)

Warriors 2010-11: 18.44 (1512)

HAWKS 2010-11: 18.50 (1517)

Suns 2001-02: 18.55 (1521)

Minnesota's record was never really in jeopardy, but the Hawks managed to avoid second-worst all-time by a total of 9 fouls. G-State nudged Atlanta for this year's bottom spot by 5 fouls.

Free throw Attempts per Game and per 40 Minutes, 2010-11 (2009-10 in parentheses):

Josh Smith 4.1 (5.2) // 4.8 (5.9)

Jamal Crawford 3.4 (4.0) // 4.5 (5.1)

Joe Johnson 3.4 (3.5) // 3.8 (3.7)

Marvin Williams 2.7 (2.7) // 3.7 (3.5)

Al Horford 2.4 (3.3) // 2.8 (3.8 )

Zaza Pachulia 2.3 (1.8 ) // 5.8 (5.2)

Jeff Teague 1.4 (0.7) // 4.0 (2.7)

Damien Wilkins 1.1 (N/A) // 3.3 (N/A)

Kirk Hinrich (ATL) 0.9 (N/A) // 1.2 (N/A)

Josh Powell 0.8 (N/A) // 2.8 (N/A)

Jason Collins 0.8 (0.1) // 2.8 (0.7)

Our fine feathered friends ended the season with a 22-6 (0.786) mark when getting fouled more than 20 times... and 22-32 (0.407) when they did not. At least among winning teams in the NBA playoffs, this factor made more of a difference to the Hawks than any other team. Among these teams, Oklahoma City (17-18 ) and Portland (18-19) were the only others with records that went below .500 when they failed to get fouled more than 20 times... the Hawks obviously much further below .500 than anyone else. Atlanta's record in games with >20 fouls drawn would be 4th among these teams, barely behind the Spurs, Thunder, and Celtics.

Winning Differentials (net percentage points) for >20 Opponent PFs per Game, Playoff Teams with Winning Records:

HAWKS 0.378 (22-6 vs. 22-32)

Thunder 0.323 (38-9 vs. 17-18 )

Celtics 0.229 (32-8 vs. 24-18 )

Trail Blazers 0.180 (30-15 vs. 18-19)

Lakers 0.167 (34-10 vs. 23-15)

Spurs 0.147 (35-8 vs. 26-13)

Mavericks 0.137 (32-10 vs. 25-15)

Magic 0.128 (36-17 vs. 16-13)

Heat 0.117 (39-13 vs. 19-11)

Sixers 0.086 (14-11 vs. 27-30)

Hornets 0.076 (24-16 vs. 22-20)

Grizzlies 0.016 (25-19 vs. 21-17)

Nuggets 0.015 (32-20 vs. 18-12)

Bulls 0.015 (26-8 vs. 36-12)

Knicks 0.001 (20-19 vs. 22-21)

The difference was all the more stark when setting a threshold for free throw attempts. When attempting more than 25 free throws, the Hawks were 20-3 (0.870), and they were 24-35 (0.407) when shooting 25 or less. The .870 record is tops at least among playoff teams with winning records. The Thunder (10-16), Sixers (26-31), and Knicks (23-24), were the only other teams with losing records when failing to reach the threshold. Atlanta also finished 17-2 when making more than 20 shots from the charity stripe, and 8-0 when making more than 25 free throws.

Winning Differentials (net percentage points) for >25 FTAs per Game, Playoff Teams with Winning Records:

HAWKS 0.463 (20-3 vs. 24-35)

Thunder 0.419 (45-11 vs. 10-16)

Mavericks 0.246 (24-4 vs. 33-21)

Trail Blazers 0.237 (16-5 vs. 32-29)

Lakers 0.147 (28-8 vs. 29-17)

Magic 0.146 (29-12 vs. 23-18 )

Sixers 0.144 (15-10 vs. 26-31)

Spurs 0.141 (25-5 vs. 36-16)

Nuggets 0.068 (33-19 vs. 17-13)

Knicks 0.053 (19-16 vs. 23-24)

Celtics 0.048 (20-8 vs. 36-18 )

Grizzlies 0.040 (21-15 vs. 25-21)

Hornets -0.033 (14-12 vs. 32-24)

Bulls -0.073 (25-10 vs. 37-10)

~lw3

Edited April 15, 2011 by lethalweapon3

[MaceCase]

Petition to rename the "Motion" Offense to the Aversion Offense.

[Gray Mule]

:Nail Biting:

And now, does any one wonder why the old man constantly carps, "Hit those free throws!

They count, too!"

Apparently, when the Hawks shoot and hit a lot of free throws, they almost always win.

Imagine that. Ball games are won or lost from the free throw line.

wow! Who would have thunk it.

:thankyou: