Josh Smith vs. David Lee.

[Diesel]

Source: http://www.82games.com/1011/1011ATL2.HTM

Josh is a part of 9 of the top 11 floor unit his team puts out. So is David Lee. So we need to compare deeper.

Going further. David Lee's production while he's on the floor. Own 17.7....Opponent 18.9 (-1.2). Josh's production . Own 20.2...Opponent 14.7 (+5.5).

You can score all you want...if you can't stop the other guy you lose.

i WOULD love to see this stat utilized for Dominique.

[Brokentree]

Source: http://www.82games.c...11/1011ATL2.HTM

Josh is a part of 9 of the top 11 floor unit his team puts out. So is David Lee. So we need to compare deeper.

Going further. David Lee's production while he's on the floor. Own 17.7....Opponent 18.9 (-1.2). Josh's production . Own 20.2...Opponent 14.7 (+5.5).

You can score all you want...if you can't stop the other guy you lose.

Using this logic Bibby is a better defender than Curry. Production isn't a player stat. It's determined partly by the rest of your team and your opponents. Heck Golden State has played 23 games against .500 or better teams comparted to 17 for the Hawks. A better team is going to have better numbers so its really hard to compare players. The only real way to do it would be to put them on the same team and see how they do in place of each other.

I think Lee has the maturity and higher basketball IQ while Josh has more athleticism. Lee has shown more growth over the first few years of his career while Josh is basically putting up the same numbers he put up 4 years ago. Lee is averaging 17.5 points on 55% shooting with 9.2 rebounds and 3.5 assists in January. It's his first year with his team and he missed most of November. He also spends quite a bit of time at Center.

I'd rather have Josh on the Hawks right now, but I have to admit I'd be more hyped about what Lee might do NEXT year. I've basically given up on Josh playing any better than he is.

[terrell]

Oh no, not the infamous basketball IQ word. lol

[tremor]

TBH, Steph Curry is an awful defender.

[MaceCase]

TBH, Steph Curry is an awful defender.

he's never been any great shakes at defense but he's also had a massive ankle injury this year that has dropped him to even worse levels. Superstar has posted two vids of him literally reinjuring said ankle already after he returned from games off. Bibby lacks foot speed but has great awareness, Curry while injured has neither but then again we are arguing over a sophomore not excelling at an aspect most youngsters struggle to get right away at the NBA level.

As for Lee though, I'm on my phone so it's hard to go digging but if you find the threads or posts that were talking about Al being ranked #1 as a post defender by Synergy you will also see David Lee ranked at the bottom of said list second or third to last IIRC with nearly the full 2 points per attempt against him and a million attempts more than any other defender on the list. He's a long time vet so he gets no excuse for guys running roughshod on him consistently and often.

[AHF]

Using this logic Bibby is a better defender than Curry. Production isn't a player stat. It's determined partly by the rest of your team and your opponents. Heck Golden State has played 23 games against .500 or better teams comparted to 17 for the Hawks. A better team is going to have better numbers so its really hard to compare players. The only real way to do it would be to put them on the same team and see how they do in place of each other.

I think Lee has the maturity and higher basketball IQ while Josh has more athleticism. Lee has shown more growth over the first few years of his career while Josh is basically putting up the same numbers he put up 4 years ago. Lee is averaging 17.5 points on 55% shooting with 9.2 rebounds and 3.5 assists in January. It's his first year with his team and he missed most of November. He also spends quite a bit of time at Center.

I'd rather have Josh on the Hawks right now, but I have to admit I'd be more hyped about what Lee might do NEXT year. I've basically given up on Josh playing any better than he is.

I think you are confusing the stat thecampster posted with +/-. All your comments apply to +/-. The stat thecampster was talking about was the PER of the playing Josh is guarding on the floor and the PER of the player Lee is guarding on the floor. That is a player specific stat and the only explanations are (a) one guy is playing better defense or (b) one guy is facing much tougher competition. Since NBA players all play a pretty comparable spread of opposing talent, Josh's vastly superior defense seems like the credible explanation for why the guys he is guarding put up much lower numbers than the guys Lee is guarding.

[thecampster]

I think you are confusing the stat thecampster posted with +/-. All your comments apply to +/-. The stat thecampster was talking about was the PER of the playing Josh is guarding on the floor and the PER of the player Lee is guarding on the floor. That is a player specific stat and the only explanations are (a) one guy is playing better defense or (b) one guy is facing much tougher competition. Since NBA players all play a pretty comparable spread of opposing talent, Josh's vastly superior defense seems like the credible explanation for why the guys he is guarding put up much lower numbers than the guys Lee is guarding.

If you go deeper into the 5 man unit rotations, there are some really telling stats. On the Def stat line (points per possession of the opposing team) here are the 20 teams listed...in Bold are groups Josh is a part of.

1.05

1.12

.96

.99

1.04

1.00

1.02

1.28

1.02

1.01

1.32 Jamal at the point...small lineup

1.09

1.25 Bibby and Jamal on the floor at the same time with mo evans...very small lineup

1.02

1.01

.82

.80 FYI...best defensive lineup is still small but features Wilkens at the 3.

.90

1.21

.94 Horford at the 4.

Okay, now let's look at these same numbers for David Lee

1.05

1.20

.99

1.12

1.20

1.25

1.19

1.21

1.30

1.20

1.04

1.00

.95

1.46

.88

1.11

.90

1.27

.95

1.08

The best numbers for Lee all correspond to when Dorrell Wright comes into the game. It's an average of 1.10 points per possession when Lee is in the . In a 90 possession game that's 99 points a game.

For Josh, it's as low as .8 and as high as 1.32 depending on personnel but it averages to about 1.02. in a 90 possession game, that's 8 less points a game.

Imagine if you had 5 guys on a team who all made an 8 point per game difference defensively. Defense turns into easy transition baskets and is really worth twice it's weight.

Answering the argument of Josh scores 16.1 a game with 3.4 assists and what does Lee have to do to be as worthy you could extrapulate from these numbers that Lee would have to score 24.1 points a game (currently 16.0) and maintain his current 3.5 assist level to equal Josh's impact.

[thecampster]

Decided to use the same numbers for the offensive side.

Josh's 5 mans are 1.056 points per possession (90 possesions = 95.04 ppg)

Lee's 5 mans are 1.069 points per possession (90 possessions = 96.21 ppg)

So Lee's offensive impact is 1.17 points per game more which can easily be attributed to system or any number of minor variables.

comparisons like this are no different that polls or other samplings. They have a +/_ points of accuracy variance. This 1.17 offensive would probably fall in that variance. 8 ppg defensively would most probably not.

[HawkFoLife]

Lee is the equivalent of Fake Hustle.....meaning he acts like he's playing defense but in all reality he really isn't. Boneheaded plays aside at least Josh is actually really trying more than not on defense.

[Brokentree]

I think you are confusing the stat thecampster posted with +/-. All your comments apply to +/-. The stat thecampster was talking about was the PER of the playing Josh is guarding on the floor and the PER of the player Lee is guarding on the floor. That is a player specific stat and the only explanations are (a) one guy is playing better defense or (b) one guy is facing much tougher competition. Since NBA players all play a pretty comparable spread of opposing talent, Josh's vastly superior defense seems like the credible explanation for why the guys he is guarding put up much lower numbers than the guys Lee is guarding.

No I'm not talking about +/-. Its the PER for Josh at whatever position he is playing vs the PER for whoever is playing the same position on the other team. It doesn't look at who is guarding who for each play. Good team defense and good team offense is going to affect these stats. I'm not saying that David Lee is anything close to Josh defensively, but how good the team you are on certainly will make these production stats look better or worse.

Edited February 3, 2011 by Brokentree

[AHF]

No I'm not talking about +/-. Its the PER for Josh at whatever position he is playing vs the PER for whoever is playing the same position on the other team. It doesn't look at who is guarding who for each play. Good team defense and good team offense is going to affect these stats. I'm not saying that David Lee is anything close to Josh defensively, but how good the team you are on certainly will make these production stats look better or worse.

I get what you are saying on that. You are right that they aren't independent. Lee and Smith have some career trends along these lines, though. [Note: I am only listing numbers at PF & C and only where players played at least 3% of their teams total minutes at that position):

Lee 2010-11 -1.5 PER at PF/+1.2 PER at C

Josh 2010-11 +1.7 PER at PF/+20.9 PER at C

Lee 2009-10 +0.9 PER/+2.9 PER at C

Josh 2009-10 +3.5 PER at PF

Lee 2008-09 -10.3 PER at PF/+2.3 PER at C

Josh 2008-09 -0.6 PER at PF/+3.3 PER at C

Lee 2007-08 +0.7 PER at PF/+6.7 PER at C

Josh 2007-08 +3.0 PER at PF/+11.8 PER at C

Just from anecdotal observations, I would say that Lee significantly contributed to some of the bad defense his teams have played.