Breaking down the best of the East

[ATL2123]

http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/insider/columns/story?columnist=hollinger_john&page=PERDiem-110207&action=upsell&appRedirect=http%3a%2f%2finsider.espn.go.com%2fnba%2finsider%2fcolumns%2fstory%3fcolumnist%3dhollinger_john%26page%3dPERDiem-110207

Anybody with Insider access please post, but judging from the 4 teams mentioned in the article description, our Hawks seem blatantly ignored by the national media once again...

[MrNique]

At this point about the only thing that seems certain about the Eastern Conference playoffs is that nobody will score any points.

Chicago, Boston and Miami are first, second and third, respectively, in defensive efficiency, while Orlando is a close fifth and has the two-time Defensive Player of the Year. Those same teams, who are the likely final four in the East, are ranked just 17th, 11th, fourth and ninth in offensive efficiency.

That pattern, in fact, lives on throughout the conference; of the likely East playoff teams, only New York rates higher on offense than defense. Translation: the stereotype of Eastern basketball lives. Sunday's Boston-Orlando game will qualify as a shootout once we get to the playoffs -- both teams broke 80!

How it all shakes out among the East's four power teams is the bigger question. At the moment the Power Rankings see virtually no difference between these teams. Just more than a point separates No. 2 Miami from No. 6 Chicago, with No. 4 Boston and No. 5 Orlando wedged in between.

That may surprise some people because the perception is that it's Boston and Miami at the top, then a gap, then the Bulls, then another gap and then Orlando and perhaps Atlanta. But as far as the ultimate prize is concerned, the East remains a four-team race. Let's break it down:

The Magic: Still worthy?

Yes, there are some issues here, but the Magic's troubles seem to me to be vastly overrated. First, some bad news. The Magic have lost eight of their past 15 games and looked outclassed in recent losses to Boston and Miami. They're 16-10 since the big set of trades that revamped their roster, which is kinda depressing since they were 16-10 before those trades, too. The Magic have fallen to fifth place in the East, a game and a half behind Atlanta, and could open the playoffs on the road.

However, don't equate the same record with no improvement. Orlando's big picture is significantly better than the assorted Armageddon stories floating around today would have you believe. Even at its worst, Orlando hasn't been that bad -- Monday's 11-point loss to Boston was its most lopsided defeat since the trades. In contrast, its past five wins have been by double digits. Since the trades, Orlando is only 16-10, but has a plus-181 scoring margin in that span, or about 7.0 points per game -- which is championship caliber.

Now, more bad news. Orlando has lost seven straight times against winning teams, the kind those trades were supposed to make them able to beat. Gilbert Arenas has been horrid, and even worse defensively than on offense; Hedo Turkoglu, after a brief honeymoon period of inspired play, hasn't been much better. Post-trade, the Magic can't stop anybody at the point of attack -- especially good point guards like Boston's Rajon Rondo or Chicago's Derrick Rose -- and depend more than ever on Dwight Howard to be a one-man defense.

Yet even with all that, they can't be dismissed. The temptation is to write them off as a team that blows out weaker opposition but can't cope with the big boys, except that history shows us that blowing out bad teams is just as important an indicator of success. It doesn't feel that way, but beating Toronto by 40 and Washington by 18 (and San Antonio, I should mention, by 22) are equally valid indicators of quality.

Nonetheless, the Magic are going to be at a major disadvantage come playoff time, because they're going to have to win two (or perhaps three) series on the road to get out of the East. Orlando projects to finish with 52 wins and should hold off the Hawks for the No. 4 seed (Atlanta has played the league's easiest schedule to date but faces a deluge of tough games after the All-Star break), but the Magic can pretty much kiss their hopes of finishing any higher goodbye.

The Bulls: Not going away

In the top three, then, we're left with Boston, Miami and Chicago. Let's talk a little about the interloper in that group, the Bulls. With Carlos Boozer and Joakim Noah missing a combined 44 games, the main question about the Bulls is "How are they doing this?"

All eyes have pointed toward Derrick Rose, and certainly he's been brilliant in largely carrying the Bulls' offense. But Chicago is only 18th in offensive efficiency; if the Bulls depended on their offense they wouldn't get very far. The major story instead has been the Bulls' top-ranked defense, which may only get better once Noah comes back from a thumb injury and upgrades the starters' D. To date it's been a ferocious second unit that has been the linchpin of the Bulls' defensive success, with the lightly-regarded trio of Omer Asik, Ronnie Brewer and C.J. Watson all posting fairly spectacular on-court team defensive stats.

At 34-15, Chicago is still in the mix for a top-two seed in the East, especially since the Bulls still play the Heat twice and the Celtics once. Again, they should get even better with Noah back to replace the offensively inept Kurt Thomas in the starting lineup.

Unfortunately, that's likely to be offset by an equal pull in the other direction from a dramatically more difficult schedule. Chicago's slate has been the league's second easiest thus far, and gets even easier when one considers 27 of the 49 games have been at home. As our Nick Friedell pointed out at the time, the Bulls could not have handpicked a better time for Noah to get hurt given the stock of winnable home games on the slate in the stretch.

Starting Monday in Portland, that changes. The Bulls play 19 of their final 33 games on the road, and the quality steps up a bit, too -- the Bulls' schedule will still rank among the easiest given their soft division and the fact they play in the East, but this is what passes for the hard part.

The Bulls need to go about 26-7 in that stretch to have much of a shot at the top seed, or even the second seed, given that Miami and Boston are chugging toward win totals in the high 50s. Even with Noah back in the lineup, that seems a tall order.

As I've mentioned before, one also wonders if the Bulls' extraordinary defensive accomplishments are due to regress a bit, even with Noah's expected return -- Chicago's opponents are missing shots with fairly amazing frequency, be the shots 2s, 3s or even free throws, and a numbers geek would coldly question whether their indicator is quite that good.

Regardless, they're a threat, and I think Boston in particular wouldn't be too pleased about playing this team in the second round of the playoffs, an outcome that could very well happen.

The Heat: A top seed?

The same question I posed at the Bulls' defense above can be lobbed just as easily in the Heat's direction. Miami's defensive record against 2s, 3s and free throws is just as great an outlier, and given that the Heat are the Bulls' main competition for the second seed in the East it seems a fairly relevant question.

Miami's more fearsome statistic, however, is 28-6 -- the Heat's record since their 9-8 start. That's the best record in the league in that stretch (though the mighty Spurs are just a half-game worse), although they're going to be hard-pressed to keep it up. The Heat, like the Bulls, are about to get bushwhacked by a more difficult schedule, and if they struggle we'll have a front-row seat for it: A 13-game stretch after the All-Star break features an amazing nine nationally televised games, of which seven are against other elite teams; only one game in that stretch is against a losing team.

The Playoff Odds project the Heat to finish with 59 wins and have a three-game advantage over the Bulls for the second seed, but that's a highly variable estimate depending on whether their star trio can stay healthy. Since the rough start, Miami's only speed bump came in a stretch when each of its starters missed at least one game.

If LeBron James, Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh all are healthy, then I would still argue this is the best team in basketball. However, no team has a more marked decline when a top-three payer is out. If Miami's stars can't stay healthy then a spot in the top two is still very much in play; otherwise, however, they can focus less on No. 3 and more on No. 1. Speaking of which ...

The Celtics: Can they hold off the Heat?

That perch is currently occupied by the Celtics, and with a two-game lead in the loss column and what is currently a tiebreak advantage, they won't be easy to catch. However, a couple of factors give Miami hope. First, the Celtics once again have played dramatically better before Christmas than after -- Boston started the season 23-4 but is just 15-8 since. Second, the Celtics have only 14 home games left and, like the Bulls and Heat, have several national-TV blockbusters remaining on the schedule -- this week alone the Celtics face both the Lakers and the Heat.

If Boston wins against Miami on Sunday, the race for the top spot may be close to over, because this game effectively counts double. A Celtics win would give them both a commanding lead in the standings and clinch the tiebreaker, while a loss would position Miami to steal the series with a win in Miami later this season (the Heat would likely end up with a better conference record if they caught Boston in the standings).

Should the Heat win, however, it's advantage Miami. As of today, the Playoff Odds still see the race as very much an open question. Both teams project to finish with 59 wins; look farther right in the table and you'll see Boston gets the East's top seed in 51.8 percent of scenarios while Miami gets the top seed in 25.8 percent. Chicago, at just 11.2 percent, is a long shot, and would probably have to win all its remaining head-to-head meetings against both teams to nab No. 1.

All this, of course, is just a prelude -- the race before the race. The real action happens in May. After years of this conference being belittled, the East has provided us with four elite-caliber, nails-tough defensive teams that have little separating them. With the Playoff Odds giving each of the four at least an 18 percent chance of winning the conference, it should be a heck of a spring.

[Joker]

They talked about the Hawks for one sentence. Said they played the easiest schedule. All of that is true, we have.

[capstone21]

Chicago has played 6 less road games then us. This article really exemplifies the lack of respect we get. Chicago has not done anything in years but instantly is loved.

[HawkItus]

They talked about the Hawks for one sentence. Said they played the easiest schedule. All of that is true, we have.

Chi, Miami, and Boston are 3#'s 2, 4, 5 repectively. But, we get singled out?

[tonegully]

SMH...aint no love in this game.

[99PROBL3MS]

Chi, Miami, and Boston are 3#'s 2, 4, 5 repectively. But, we get singled out?

I was just about to post this. Good post.

[Final_quest]

I was thinking recently what our ideal playoff scenario would be. Obviously we want the #3 seed playing the Knicks, or Sixers if they catch them. After that I'm not sure. Here are a few items on my wish list about these teams in the article.

1. The Gilbert Arenas Magic have not looked that good, and I hope the experiment goes from bad to worse.

2. Not wishing injury on anyone directly, but Boozer does not have an iron man streak going for his career.

3. Lebron starts pouting and bricking 3's again, and the Heat convince themselves this is the year for just building chemistry.

4. I would love for us to meet Boston in the playoffs again. This time we win game 7 at their place.

Seriously it doesn't bother me that there is an article and consensus that there are four contenders in the East. As cliche as it sounds we need an extra chip on our shoulder.

[Joker]

Chi, Miami, and Boston are 3#'s 2, 4, 5 repectively. But, we get singled out?

Yep, because they don't respect us. Why, it's because they don't like the Hawks. They don't see a team that can win a title. They watch Chicago, if they have the right route, it's possible. Same for Miami, and Boston. Us, they just don't care, never will until we do it. Just the issue when you don't have an elite team or an elite player when it comes to national respect. I am no longer suprised when we aren't mentioned. We should be but we aren't but we do have a killer schedule and it's time to prove when can play with the best.

[lunar]

Yep, because they don't respect us. Why, it's because they don't like the Hawks. They don't see a team that can win a title. They watch Chicago, if they have the right route, it's possible. Same for Miami, and Boston. Us, they just don't care, never will until we do it. Just the issue when you don't have an elite team or an elite player when it comes to national respect. I am no longer suprised when we aren't mentioned. We should be but we aren't but we do have a killer schedule and it's time to prove when can play with the best.

most of this is because atlanta doesn't play many nationalized TV games. because of that the schedule makers paired us up against the cupcakes of the league while the top teams went after each other. that being said, the only way to be the best is to beat the best. right now atlanta's showings have been horrible against winning teams that weren't banged up (counting orlando right after the trade) if we can continue to win against the west (i think that we'll do very well on our road trip) and knock out chicago when we play them, they'll have to show respect. until then, you can't get mad when we aren't mentioned.

[Joker]

most of this is because atlanta doesn't play many nationalized TV games. because of that the schedule makers paired us up against the cupcakes of the league while the top teams went after each other. that being said, the only way to be the best is to beat the best. right now atlanta's showings have been horrible against winning teams that weren't banged up (counting orlando right after the trade) if we can continue to win against the west (i think that we'll do very well on our road trip) and knock out chicago when we play them, they'll have to show respect. until then, you can't get mad when we aren't mentioned.

It more that ppl don't like watching us than us not getting games because of respect. Most of us don't even like watching us.

[jerrywest]

Our starting lineup against Orlando in the 1st round and Boston in the 2ndr round (if) will have Bibby and Collins in the 2 most important positions. Show me a Euro League team that can't beat that. Why should they take us seriously?

[CODHAWKSFAN]

Our starting lineup against Orlando in the 1st round and Boston in the 2ndr round (if) will have Bibby and Collins in the 2 most important positions. Show me a Euro League team that can't beat that. Why should they take us seriously?

Well if we don't do any trades, the games after the All Star break and March will show us what this team is REALLY made of. I personally have never seen a team have to play so many good teams at once.

[thecampster]

Well if we don't do any trades, the games after the All Star break and March will show us what this team is REALLY made of. I personally have never seen a team have to play so many good teams at once.

The rest of February is mostly on the road making a huge disparity of Road vs away games to start the season. But March and April are not as bad as they seem. We should be healthy (says a prayer for Al's back as he says this). 15 of the last 22 are at home. In March, 12 of 15 are at home. Yes the teams are tough but we will be only traveling 3 times the whole month. 1 is the front half of a back to back with 2 days off. The other 2 are the back half of a back to back but they are at the Sixers and at the Cavs which are both winnable games.

The Bulls by comparison have 7 home, 9 away in March. They play us once at home, 2 away. We control our own destiny with the Bulls. Not only do they play us 3 times but also Miami and Orlando on the road, Utah and the Hornets at home.

Miami has to play 10 at home 5 on the road but teams they must face include....Orlando, San Antonio twice, Lakers, Chicago, OKC, Philadelphia, Houston and Denver.

The reality is the Hawks have a much more favorable schedule than they are given credit for. The have 31 games left. 7 are road games against likely playoff teams. Take care of the home court, beat the teams you are supposed to beat and you could go 24-7 to finish the year. I'm not saying that will happen, I'm saying with only 14 road games left and those not being extremely tough, you have a shot to move up as high as number 2. They have 3 left with the Bulls with a 2 game margin. They have 2 left with Miami with a 4 game margin and many more home games than either. Only 7 back to backs left scheduled.

2nd or 3rd seed is very doable. I'm betting on 3rd seed, the Bulls schedule is not friendly. But Miami has a slew of teams to go through and their big 3 will not be getting much of a rest because of All Star weekend.

Edited February 8, 2011 by thecampster

[Atlantaholic]

Orlando has officially become a one man team. Their outside shooting which was their bread and butter has been deteriorating and Jameer Nelson is having a pretty bad year. Overall I think we are a better team this year. Chicago is playing great defense but their offense is really nothing that strikes fear into my heart. Outside of Rose and Boozer they have NO ONE that is really any good on that side of the court IMHO. It will be interesting to see how we match up against them. On paper it seems like a horrible match-up considering how PG defense is our weakness, but for some reason I think we can take them. Boston and Miami are easily better than us though.

[thecampster]

Orlando has officially become a one man team. Their outside shooting which was their bread and butter has been deteriorating and Jameer Nelson is having a pretty bad year. Overall I think we are a better team this year. Chicago is playing great defense but their offense is really nothing that strikes fear into my heart. Outside of Rose and Boozer they have NO ONE that is really any good on that side of the court IMHO. It will be interesting to see how we match up against them. On paper it seems like a horrible match-up considering how PG defense is our weakness, but for some reason I think we can take them. Boston and Miami are easily better than us though.

You say Miami is easily better and I don't see it. We've had some real injury issues (35 games lost to our top 6 due to injuries/suspension). Tons of Back to Backs early on. a new offense to institute. 3 more road games than home and up until a few weeks ago, a break neck pace of games (we were fastest to 40 games by like 8 days). 4 games in the standings with a 3 game difference in road vs away between the teams is hardly (easily better). I really think it could come down to the last week of the season between these 2. That heavy home schedule and lack of quality opponents on the road is a big deal.

[MaceCase]

I think we are in good shape. You start to get a little mad when you look at the love Chicago is getting but then you look deeper and even go by what was mentioned in the article and you begin to realize that they've:

Played the second easiest schedule to the Hawks.

They've played the same number of home games as the Hawks have played on the road (27)

They sit atop of the weakest division in the league while the Hawks are second in one of the toughest

They've lost Boozer and Noah to 44 games total whereas the Hawks have played only 18 games with their top 6 rotation players intact.

Yes they will get overrated because of the high ranking on defense (see what good that did the Bucks during their overration period), have an MVP candidate, play in a huge market and have the injury excuse but lo and behold! The Hawks are only a game and a half behind them while holding that same advantage over Orlando in addition to our 2-1 tiebreaker. If we play to form we'll be in pretty good shape over the All Star break with a decent cushion from 5th and on the launching pad for the 3rd seed. The real threats heading into the playoffs will be determined over the seasons second half but so far we've been right up there with everyone.

[Atlantaholic]

You say Miami is easily better and I don't see it. We've had some real injury issues (35 games lost to our top 6 due to injuries/suspension). Tons of Back to Backs early on. a new offense to institute. 3 more road games than home and up until a few weeks ago, a break neck pace of games (we were fastest to 40 games by like 8 days). 4 games in the standings with a 3 game difference in road vs away between the teams is hardly (easily better). I really think it could come down to the last week of the season between these 2. That heavy home schedule and lack of quality opponents on the road is a big deal.

Only way we are better than Miami is if one of the big three is injured. You take away their slow start (and the games Bosh missed) and they have been absolutely dominating their opponents, I don't think you'll find any single person outside of this forum that will say the Hawks are better than Miami.