BR goes in on Marvin.

[thescout5]

I'll take that chance of Marvin being gone and giving the job to a player that as upside. I really doubt Marvin puts in the hard work to get better but instead just gets by on his given talent. None of us are there to see how hard Marvin works but usually alot of players enter the league with talent and the ones who work hard become the better players in the league. All we have read in the past is Marvin was taking classes and home playing games etc etc. Making millions of dollars should be a higher priority and whatever time is left Marvin can take classes or play nintendo. Unfortunatley it appears Marvin as it the other way around which is why he needs to go. I've got an idea let Marvin go get a real job for a month and find out how hard it is to earn a dollar then I'm sure he would rethink his priorities.

[mrhonline]

That's what I was thinking too wondering what or whom BR is

Since I've got a few extra minutes today, lemme go do some B-R.com research of how bad Marvin has been and throw it in this thread.

Be right back...

Okay, among non-rookie scale guys, here's Marvin's closest offensive comparables based on the past two seasons combined:

Ryan Gomes and Travis Outlaw

He was statistically better than both guys. Gomes makes around $4M per year, while Outlaw makes too much at $7M per. I think it was last year that I said Marvin's actual value was probably closer to $5-6M per.

I'm glad I looked again. Makes me think he's not completely unmovable.

Edited May 31, 2011 by mrhonline

[Diesel]

I'll take that chance of Marvin being gone and giving the job to a player that as upside. I really doubt Marvin puts in the hard work to get better but instead just gets by on his given talent. None of us are there to see how hard Marvin works but usually alot of players enter the league with talent and the ones who work hard become the better players in the league. All we have read in the past is Marvin was taking classes and home playing games etc etc. Making millions of dollars should be a higher priority and whatever time is left Marvin can take classes or play nintendo. Unfortunatley it appears Marvin as it the other way around which is why he needs to go. I've got an idea let Marvin go get a real job for a month and find out how hard it is to earn a dollar then I'm sure he would rethink his priorities.

I won't forget that Marvin had to get a call from one of the assistant coaches telling him to workout during the summer. Really? It seems to me that Marvin spends the summer being lazy and getting fat and the first half of the season trying to get back in shape and the second half of the season coasting to a check becuase by that time, the coaches are fed up with his nonimpact play. He doesn't challenge himself. Now, Josh. Josh may be an a**hole, but at least he challenges himself. He works hard on something.. even if it's three point shooting. To have Marvin come in and Marvel at the work ethic of a rookie picked in the second round (Salim) is down right ridiculous. I hope Marvin enjoys his large paydays. My guess is that it's the last large payday he will ever see. He might even end up getting the vet min. if that.

That's what I was thinking too wondering what or whom BR is and then I finally saw it on a computer just now instead of my iPhone and realized D was trying to disguise the fact that it was just a fan written hate piece about Marvin. The fact is that Marvin probably has very few, if any, supporters left here so I think D could have been up front about it being a fan piece from the beginning and still gotten the support he was looking for.

At this point D you should just be happy that you can sit back and say that you were right about Marvin all along while the rest of us who defended him were wrong.

Actually, I didn't know that BReport was fans? I thought these were guys who are up and coming journalist.

However, for you, I checked...

"Bleacher Report is the web's leading publisher of original and entertaining sports editorial content.

Since launching in 2008, Bleacher Report's web site has attracted an audience of more than 16 million monthly unique visitors. Today, BleacherReport.com is one of the two fastest-growing sites on the Quantcast web rankings (since April 2010), and is the fifth largest sports destination as ranked by comScore. Over 1,000,000 users subscribe to our sport- and team-specific email newsletters, which provide next-level reporting that resonates with our engaged audience of die-hard sports fans.

Our distinguished editorial team leads more than 700 Featured Columnists, and directs Bleacher Report’s unique data-driven approach to creating and programming content. The result is first-rate sports journalism that gives our audience the stories they want to read in real-time, all the time.

And with more than 500 new articles published daily, no other sports network provides the breadth and depth of Bleacher Report’s highly entertaining coverage. Content created by the Bleacher Report editorial community is regularly syndicated to such leading media outlets as CBS Sports.com, the Los Angeles Times, NHL.com, Hearst Newspapers, USAToday.com, and Telegraph.co.uk."

[MaceCase]

It's called Bleacher Report as in it is a report by those that sit in the bleachers not those with media passes or a paid salary by newspaper or credible website. I can go to a museum and write a report on the cavemen but that doesn't make me an upcoming anthropologist.

[Admin]

It's called Bleacher Report as in it is a report by those that sit in the bleachers not those with media passes or a paid salary by newspaper or credible website. I can go to a museum and write a report on the cavemen but that doesn't make me an upcoming anthropologist.

Or I can take a girl home from the bar tonight and spend an hour examining her lady parts but that doesn't make me an OBGYN.

[Colin]

Yeah Diesel, if you think BR is anything more than a site where retards get to write articles, you're mistaken. For instance, peep this. perhaps the worst article ever written...

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/709681-nba-trade-scenarios-what-could-the-grizzlies-get-by-trading-rudy-gay

"But Marc Gasol and Rudy Gay for Boston's first-round pick and Delonte West might work."

HAHAHA

[Vol4ever]

BR on Marvin

You have to admit that everything said is true... but get this:

Marvin Williams = Contract player.

Marvin fans, what's the difference between 2007-2008 and Now?

where's the excuse?

Diesel,

I know you are down on Marvin and I have been too. The truth of the matter is that Marvin needs to be at least the number 2 option on offense. When Josh Smith or Al does bot play yiou see a 20/8 player on the court. Marvin needs plays run for him and he is the ONLY low post option. I think they need to work Marvin in the post isnce we have NO other bigs willing to play down low. Marvin is a 18/8 player with good defense and passing skills in the right setting SO if they trade him they will be crying in this forum when he puts up good numbers somewhere else.

[sturt]

What does it mean to believe in Marvin at this point?

Is it believing that he will become a star ala Chauncey Billups (emerged at 26 to be a multiple All-NBA player)?

Believing that he will become a borderline All-Star ala Gerald Wallace (sometimes spectacular, regular impact)?

Become a plus starter ala Tayshaun Prince (rarely spectacular but always a plus contributor)?

Become a solid starter (holds his own but doesn't really add anything)?

Become a valuable role player (too many holes in his game to start but has enough game to exploit matchups night in and night out)?

Great question.

As-is, I see Marvin currently as a part-time starter who is more "solid" than a "plus contributor" yet who occasionally does "spectacular" things to have an impact (occasionally hits critical shots like he did vs. the Magic in Game 6, or makes a critical block as he did vs. the Bulls in our regular season win, or getting critical rebound), and has enough game to exploit certain match-ups, particularly on the defensive side.

Here's the thing that I can't get past...

I don't consider Smoove to have plateaued... and he's about 6 months older than Marvin... same for Horford... about 2 weeks older than Marvin... so I'm hesitant to say that Marvin's shown everything he's going to show. I consider myself to still "believe in Marvin." But I admit that I'm having trouble figuring out what that means.

You see, here's where Marvin was on March 3, 2009 when Sekou wrote about him...

When Marvin Williams came into the NBA all the experts warned that it might be four of five years before it showed, but that he could end up being the best player in his draft class. Early on, All-Stars Chris Paul, Deron Williams, Danny Granger and budding star Monta Ellis made that prediction look shaky, when Williams watched his more seasoned draft classmates make much easier transitions to the league.

But it doesn't look quite as far-fetched these days.

In his fourth season, Williams is looking every bit like the multi-talented swingman he was billed to be when the Hawks selected him with the No. 2 pick overall after his championship season at North Carolina.

"Marvin's been great for us this season," Hawks coach Mike Woodson said of Williams, who along with the Hawks is in town to take on the Knicks at Madison Square Garden Wednesday night. "He's come back this year and improved his long shot, so he's knocking down 3-pointers as well as posting the ball and getting to the free-throw line. He's become a triple-threat in that regard. And that's what you want from a guy at that position."

Since the All-Star break, Williams has scored, rebounded and defended at a consistently high level. In the Hawks' past four games, he's averaging 21.5 points on .536 (30-for-56) shooting from the floor, 467 (7-for-15) from beyond the 3-point line and .826 (19-for-23) from the free-throw line.

"I haven't changed anything," Williams said of his approach. "I've just tried to pick it up wherever it was needed every night and take advantage of whatever the situation has been."

http://www.ajc.com/s...n_williams.html

About one week later, Marvin sustained a lower back injury that knocked him out for a month.

Been looking for some recent-history comparables... these are as close as I'm finding... all were lottery picks...

Small Forward A: The guy began his career at 20, and considered to have the greatest all-around potential of anyone in that draft class. Size-wise, just a bit larger than Marvin, listed at 6-10 to 6-11, but expected to play small forward in the NBA. Played about 13600 minutes in his first 6 years in the league. WinSharesPer48 averaged about 0.082 at that point, with his highest rating being 0.134 in his 5th year. PER average at that point was 16.7, ranging from 13.7 to 18.9 (which is thought to be somewhat inflated as he had been the best player on two bad teams to that point). Though he'd had a stand-out year in that 5th year, he'd regressed some in the 6th, and there was palpable grumbling that he may be a classic underachiever.

Small Forward B: Another player began at 22... not considered an elite guy, but multi-talented, having shown himself capable both on the block and on the perimeter, and though drafted as a small forward, had set a school-record for blocking shots. Size-wise, just a bit smaller than Marvin, listed at 6-8 to 6-9, and mostly started at power forward in college. Played about 13000 minutes in his first 6 years in the league. WinSharesPer48 averaged 0.103 at that point, with his highest rating being 0.144 in his 6th year. PER average at that point was 13.5, ranging from 12.1 to 14.4. He had not distinguished himself with the team that drafted him, and they sent him packing after year 4, and the first half of his 5th year was truly horrific.

Small Forward C: Began career at age 20, and was regarded as a high talent guy who hadn't put it all together in college. Size-wise, probably the closest of the three to Marvin's frame. Played about 11000 minutes in his first 6 years, with a WSp48 of 0.111 with his highest being 0.141 in his 4th year, and a PER that stood at 14.9, ranging from 13.1 to 16.4. After that encouraging 4th year, he maintained a good PER but began descended into WSp48 hell for years 5 and 6. As it was generally understood when he was drafted that he was a high-ceiling/high-risk player, no one got too upset when he began to regress, largely because of the torrid rise of another small forward on the team whose ascension got him shipped elsewhere.

===

Marvin, of course, began at 19, ... and similar to Player A was considered to have the greatest all-around potential in his class.

And after 6 years, he stands at about 13300 minutes, so approximately what A and B had attained, though having done so at an earlier age (1 year earlier than A, 3 years earlier than B... C wasn't there until his 7th year).

WinSharesPer48 average is at 0.096, with his highest rating being being 0.140 in his 4th year, which compares just a bit better than Player A (0.082), just a bit worse than Player B (0.103), and notably worse than Player C (0.111).

PER average for Marvin is 13.6, ranging from 12.2 to 16, which compares fairly close to Player B (13.5, 12.1 to 14.4), is somewhat lower than Player C (14.9, 13.1 to 16.4), and decidedly lower than Player A (16.7, 13.7 to 18.9).

Though Marvin had a good year in that 4th year, he injured his back toward the end of that season, and then, took a step backward for his 5th season. He injured it again this past December and was out for a month. Based on the 10 games prior to the injury, there was again some enthusiasm that he was regaining some of his confidence, having averaged about 14 points (42% 3FG) and 5 rebounds. Today, of course, there is more than just mumbling that he may be a bust.

So, given A, B and C... who do you like as Marvin's closest comparable?

I'll reveal names soon, but for the sake of discussion, do your best to resist the urge to guess, or worse, try to research... :)

Edited June 1, 2011 by sturt

[DrReality]

Time wounds all heals.

John Lennon

[sturt]

Almost two days now, and no takers, eh? Moderately surprised. :Cuppa:

[sturt]

Okay, I guess I'll spill my opinion...

I think as time marches on and if he's able to stay away from any further back injuries, Marvin's capable of achieving at a level just short of Player A...

Of the other two, he seems to track closer to B than to C...

And then, I'd put his trend line as slightly better than B.

Anyone seeing it differently, or can I assume consensus on that?

Edited June 4, 2011 by sturt

[Diesel]

Okay, I guess I'll spill my opinion...

I think as time marches on and if he's able to stay away from any further back injuries, Marvin's capable of achieving at a level just short of Player A...

Of the other two, he seems to track closer to B than to C...

And then, I'd put his trend line as slightly better than B.

Anyone seeing it differently, or can I assume consensus on that?

Sturt...

We go through this every year. And every year that's a non-contract Year, Marvin gives us less than he did the year before.

Many of us are tired of pointing out how sorry he has been and his defenders (the Marvin Protection Force) are tired of trying to offer up excuses. Just to summarize,

everybody is tired of Marvin.

He is a NON MFing Factor.

Yes, i stole that.

Edited June 4, 2011 by Diesel

[sturt]

While I'm sure you're feeling like you're taking a victory lap, Dies, the question on the table at this point in the discussion is what does it mean to have faith in Marvin at this point.

Thus, your reply is non-responsive to my post, as I'm trying to decipher who in recent memory might constitute a comparable, given the 6 seasons of data we have and using a couple of one-number stats to try to examine that...

But, fwiw, it is inaccurate to say his performance has decrease each year that wasn't a contract year...

PER

05-06: 12.2

06-07: 12.2

07-08: 14.5

08-09: 16.0

09-10: 13.0

10-11: 13.5

WS/48

05-06: .069

06-07: .051

07-08: .099

08-09: .140

09-10: .112

10-11: .102

[Diesel]

While I'm sure you're feeling like you're taking a victory lap, Dies, the question on the table at this point in the discussion is what does it mean to have faith in Marvin at this point.

Thus, your reply is non-responsive to my post, as I'm trying to decipher who in recent memory might constitute a comparable, given the 6 seasons of data we have and using a couple of one-number stats to try to examine that...

But, fwiw, it is inaccurate to say his performance has decrease each year that wasn't a contract year...

PER

05-06: 12.2

06-07: 12.2

07-08: 14.5

08-09: 16.0

09-10: 13.0

10-11: 13.5

WS/48

05-06: .069

06-07: .051

07-08: .099

08-09: .140

09-10: .112

10-11: .102

To have faith is simply this.. To pay him 8 million for the next 3. To play him like he is a factor.

Stats are meaningless. I mean Brandan Wright's PER = 16.2. What does that mean?

There are no loss shares, but if there were, Marvin would probably top the charts.

We should be shopping him. We should be trying to ship him outta here. As I said before, everybody is tired of his underachievements.

[sturt]

To have faith is simply this.. To pay him 8 million for the next 3. To play him like he is a factor.

Stats are meaningless. I mean Brandan Wright's PER = 16.2. What does that mean?

There are no loss shares, but if there were, Marvin would probably top the charts.

We should be shopping him. We should be trying to ship him outta here. As I said before, everybody is tired of his underachievements.

I get it, Dies... you're attempting a pre-emptive strike, concerned that Players A, B and C are all highly-regarded players and that I'm making a case that Marvin's somehow on the cusp of greatness.

You presume too much.

To the contrary, I'm attempting a realistic, pragmatic and honest estimation of what Marvin's career track might look like, again, based on how his first six years appear to mesh with others who've went before him. Pre-emptive strike isn't necessary. For the record, I clearly don't pretend that the PER is the end-all stat, which is why I add the WS/48 to the conversation. Single-number stats do not do a great job on their own of conveying a player's productivity, but as you put some of them together, some patterns do seem to emerge from that effort.

Again, if you want to add something relevant to this discussion of Marvin's comparables, please do.

If not, it's your thread and you're certainly legit to add to it as you would like, but just don't pretend that you're responding to my question, okay?

(And, for what it's worth, the irony of your using the word "tired" with regard to Marvin makes me chuckle.)

[Diesel]

I get it, Dies... you're attempting a pre-emptive strike, concerned that Players A, B and C are all highly-regarded players and that I'm making a case that Marvin's somehow on the cusp of greatness.

You presume too much.

To the contrary, I'm attempting a realistic, pragmatic and honest estimation of what Marvin's career track might look like, again, based on how his first six years appear to mesh with others who've went before him. Pre-emptive strike isn't necessary. For the record, I clearly don't pretend that the PER is the end-all stat, which is why I add the WS/48 to the conversation. Single-number stats do not do a great job on their own of conveying a player's productivity, but as you put some of them together, some patterns do seem to emerge from that effort.

Again, if you want to add something relevant to this discussion of Marvin's comparables, please do.

If not, it's your thread and you're certainly legit to add to it as you would like, but just don't pretend that you're responding to my question, okay?

(And, for what it's worth, the irony of your using the word "tired" with regard to Marvin makes me chuckle.)

Here's the rub Sturt.

Do you think Marvin is worth 24 more million over the next 3 yrs?

Regardless of if he looks like player A, B, or C...

Do you think he is worth 24 more million over the next 3 yrs?

Do you think we can find another player at a much cheaper rate than Marvin?

I looked at your stats. I believe that said that Damien Wilkins was comparable to Marvin this past year per 48.. Comparable if not better.

So let me make it realer for you...

Marvin = 6.713 Million this year.

Damien Wilkins 749k this year.

When I run the numbers...

Marvin made ~ 9 times the amount that Damien did.

Per 48 Advance stats:

PER:

Marvin 13.5

Damien 11.4

W/S per 48

Marvin 0.102

Damien 0.104

In the playoffs..

PER

Marvin 8.9

Damien 17.9

W/S per 48

Marvin 0.006

Damien 0.093

Now, you can feel free to categorize this as a pre-emptive strike. You can say that I'm missing the fact that Marvin can be serviceable.

However, I think Serviceable can come at a much cheaper rate.. Also... Marvin is a NON MFing Factor. (yes, i stole that again)

[sturt]

Here's the rub Sturt.

Do you think Marvin is worth 24 more million over the next 3 yrs?

Regardless of if he looks like player A, B, or C...

I don't know how many ways I can say this, but I've clearly been unable so far.

That's not my question.

My question is... *sigh*... what bigger SFs in recent history have gone before Marvin whose first six years of pro ball look something similar to Marvin's... thus giving us some better basis than simple optimism or pessimism for projecting how he might turn out.

You seem tacitly unable (or maybe disinterested?) to get that.

Why would I, for instance, compare Marvin's 2010-11 year to Damien Wilkins 10-11 year? That almost totally misses (or maybe avoids?) the question.

[sturt]

Here's the rub Sturt.

Do you think Marvin is worth 24 more million over the next 3 yrs?

Regardless of if he looks like player A, B, or C...

I don't know how many ways I can say this, but I've clearly been unable so far.

That's not my question.

My question is... *sigh*... what bigger SFs in recent history have gone before Marvin whose first six years of pro ball look something similar to Marvin's... thus giving us some better basis than simple optimism or pessimism for projecting how he might turn out.

You seem tacitly unable (or maybe disinterested?) to get that.

Why would I, for instance, compare Marvin's 2010-11 year to Damien Wilkins 10-11 year? That almost totally misses (or maybe avoids?) the question.

[sturt]

On further thought, you're a basketball fan... Basketball-Reference.com doesn't do this, and since I'm not sure if you're a baseball fan, you might not be familiar with the idea... on Baseball-Reference.com, they have comparables listed for many current players. Here, for instance, is a snapshot (sorry that it's blurry... jpg doesn't pick up text so well) of Brian McCann's current comparables... some fairly impressive...

Frankie Hayes is #1, followed by Yogi Berra, Lance Parrish and Bill Dickey... and in fact, the list immediately to the right shows that he's tracked with Frankie Hayes' career for each of the last three years. Thus, if we wanted the best idea of how McCann's career is going to turn out, we'd probably want to refer to Hayes...

That's all I'm trying to accomplish here, in essence, is to see who Marvin is tracking most closely with. I don't pretend to have made an exhaustive study, but I do claim to have, at least, given a cursory look at most SFs since the lottery began.

So, that's all I've got. If you want to argue these other questions, I'm not here for that, but maybe someone else is.