Houston will pursue Josh Smith if they fail to get Dwight Howard

[Joker]

You missed the point of my post I think. My point was, you don't get Josh Smith talent to sign a FA deal for 13 million in the NBA next year. In that list, there are only 6 players I value equally or more than Josh and all make more than 13 million a year.AHF was making the case that putting Josh in the context of value because his expiring status was ludicrous. I was seconding his comment but clarifying. Something about AHF you might want to know is that he tends to leave out details. The details are typically common knowledge to him and he leaves them out assuming other's know these things as well. As far as contracts, trades, go...he's as knowledgable as anyone here. Player evaluation and play style is something he and I argue about occasionally but in the area of CBA, Salary Cap, Trades, etc....you could do alot worse than asking him for clarification.

He will get a lot but max type deal. The only team I can see doing that is his own. Seriously, even Orlando will be reluctant to offer that when they will offer someone like Monta Ellis that instead who Dwight would rather play with regardless of his friendship with Josh.I have never been big on the CBA. I rarely ever read the thing. If anything I just ask someone I know who knows about it really well. AHF does know about the CBA as well as you, hawksfanatic, and nire I think.

[Joker]

About Gordon's contract, in one year you may be able to turn around that contract and acquire a second 1st rder in trade. This is a much better deal for a 1st than what GS paid for Jefferson/1st. I actually think the Bobcats made out. They may get another first out of this should they trade Gordon's deal down the road. Their cap situation will allow for that.I think in this case JS's expiring contract hurts any deal and eliminates a great many teams (like Toronto) unlike in the case of an expiring contract where you wouldn't likely want to resign the player. I think JS's "value" (see thecampster's post in this thread page) is only for a certain number of teams as his next contract will be difficult to play up to. Houston may be one such team if they are really interested in plucking Howard from Orlando. I will say this, if I'm taking on Scola's contract without getting rid of MW, I better get a boat load of draft picks (preferably in this draft). $40 million committed to MW/Scola/JJ in 2 years boggles my mind. If paying for 2 years of Gordon gets you a likely mid-first, paying for 3 of Scola should also. That and JS is at least worth a mid-1st to a team like the Rockets. W

I agree, the Bobcats won this trade. The Pistons aren't likely to make it to the playoffs this year or next unless their draft pick next year is a knockout. They just aren't there yet but either way. Charlotte had the money, no one was going to sign so go the OKC route and stock up on draft picks and continue rebuilding.I disagree on Smith. Smith is likely to take the money. Not to mention, teams like Toronto and Sac-Town are a Josh Smith away from the playoffs. You are really underestimating Josh's impact. You seen what he did this year for us. He basically carried us to the playoffs. He can do that for a lot of teams. Especially ones like Sac Two who aren't that far or that close. They have a franchise player in Cousins. They have a legit #2 option in Evans. They would make the playoffs with Smith.For some reason, you guys think Josh Smith isn't a difference maker when he was clearly our best player and can lead a team to the playoffs. He is better than anyone on Denver, Utah, Dallas, Memphis and Phoenix. Edited June 27, 2012 by Joker

[Joker]

Sorry butI. ThomasThorntonEvansSmithCousins is a legit top 4-7 seed in the West. Especially with Cousins improvement. Evans scoring and now with Smith as an anchor, they can get away with below average defense from Evans.

Edited June 27, 2012 by Joker

[Joker]

Josh Smith is a top 25-35 player. He would be rated higher if he wasn't for his shot selection.

[Guest Walter]

Campster, What in your mind would then constitute not only a "fair" deal for JS but one that we should consider? All this assuming say a 50% chance he resigns with us or signs elsewhere. I understand the premise that drafted talent will not align with JJ's talent-window. I don't know how to resolve it save returning to the Gasol/pick for JS/MW idea or trading JJ in a deal that includes a lottery pick (which seems impossible).

[Admin]

What you said wasn't common knowledge and please cite it next time if you want to put me down. I don't mind admitting when I am wrong but don't do that please unless you have the proof.Now, before I got angry I still feel the same. 14, 16,18 and Scola for Smith and 23 is a fair deal. Otherwise no. No point in doing the deal. Rather try to move into the top 5 or wait till the regular season and stick with what we have.

Yes, it's common knowledge to anyone but the casual basketball fan. And hell to the no I'm not going to cite things that are common knowledge to 75% of this board.Way to admit that you were wrong!

[Sothron]

So going back to what I said on page 13 I believe...we don't get a trade exception if Josh walks as a free agent. The only reason Cleveland got one was because Miami actually did a S&T with Cleveland. I don't think a team will work out a S&T for Josh and someone earlier said the new CBA actually eliminated the S&T option for UFA.My point then still stands. If we let Josh walk we literally get nothing but cap space. And Josh's cap space isn't enough to replace his value on the court. We absolutely have to trade him before he walks.

[Joker]

Yes, it's common knowledge to anyone but the casual basketball fan. And hell to the no I'm not going to cite things that are common knowledge to 75% of this board.Way to admit that you were wrong!

Huh?

[Admin]

I'm pretty sure you can still snt ... you just don't get the same draft pick compensation guarantee as the team trading the player and the player doesn't get the 6th year. There is still some benefit to snt as the other team can get rid of a big contract who might be a useful player for us or they could snt with us to create the trade exception if they're under the cap for us to create good will between the teams.

[thecampster]

Campster, What in your mind would then constitute not only a "fair" deal for JS but one that we should consider? All this assuming say a 50% chance he resigns with us or signs elsewhere. I understand the premise that drafted talent will not align with JJ's talent-window. I don't know how to resolve it save returning to the Gasol/pick for JS/MW idea or trading JJ in a deal that includes a lottery pick (which seems impossible).

That is a good question. My post after that explained this. Josh's return on salary is extremely high. Something people forget is you can only have 5 on the court at once and a rotation is only 8-9 players. Championship rosters get the most out of their salary spent on 8-9 players. Use Teague as an example. Being still on his rookie contract, his return on investment is extremely high. He isn't the best PG in the league but his return is excellent for his salary. Now JJ....Although he is a very good player, his salary of 18mil+ requires 150% greater value than say Horford because his salary is 150% of Al's. If you assumed for the top 9 players on every roster would take 95% of the salary for the team and assume teams spend up to the LT. That means an average salary of just under 8 million per player. Okay, now the average team scores about 95 points a game, 90 of those by the top 9 players (I hope you see where I'm going with this). So a 10 point per game player who performs "average" in rebounds/assists/steals/turnovers/blocks against other players at his position (to be fair) would command about 8 million dollars a year in salary. Crazy logic here but that makes Marvin's salary about right. Now look at Josh. Josh scored about 18 points a game. If we only counted points...he would get paid 180% of base or $14.4 million. Now he is top tier in assists/steals at his position and top 15% in Rebounds/Blocks too. Using this commodity approach, he's worth 15-16 million a year. Now compare Joe. 19 points a game means $15.1 million but he under performs or is average for his position in almost every category so he's about a $14 million dollar player. Just a guesstimate here. So in trading Joe, a fair trade is to get back about a $14 million dollar player or a slightly less than upgrades us elsewhere. This is why Joe and 23 for Lowry and 14,16,18 is a better value trade than the one with Scola/Josh. Because you are getting a better chance to replace value. You aren't just replacing the player. If you think of it in player terms, your biases will come out. Think of it as salary as a part of the cap vs numbers produced.Now let's pretend you could trade Josh for a Center (say Bogut level), moving Horford to the 4. Bogut would produce similar to Horford at the 5 with better defense/rebounding. Horford would produce similar or better than Josh at the 4 with better rebounding. Now we're at a trade that works better. Now improve our draft position in that trade enough to get a better PG/backup SG/upgrade over Marvin and I'd make the trade.I'm not against trading Smoove...I just see it in terms of value vs contract. Even if we resign Josh, it won't be for max. Let him walk and you won't get back the same value in cap space. Trade him and because he's a high value player, you won't get back a good return.I have the same logic with Teague/Horford. There is almost no trade you can get for Horford that would replace his impact for his salary. But because Joe makes 6 million more and is in a need position, might be able to flip him in a 3 way.

[thecampster]

That is a good question. My post after that explained this. Josh's return on salary is extremely high. Something people forget is you can only have 5 on the court at once and a rotation is only 8-9 players. Championship rosters get the most out of their salary spent on 8-9 players. Use Teague as an example. Being still on his rookie contract, his return on investment is extremely high. He isn't the best PG in the league but his return is excellent for his salary. Now JJ....Although he is a very good player, his salary of 18mil+ requires 150% greater value than say Horford because his salary is 150% of Al's.If you assumed for the top 9 players on every roster would take 95% of the salary for the team and assume teams spend up to the LT. That means an average salary of just under 8 million per player. Okay, now the average team scores about 95 points a game, 90 of those by the top 9 players (I hope you see where I'm going with this). So a 10 point per game player who performs "average" in rebounds/assists/steals/turnovers/blocks against other players at his position (to be fair) would command about 8 million dollars a year in salary. Crazy logic here but that makes Marvin's salary about right. Now look at Josh. Josh scored about 18 points a game. If we only counted points...he would get paid 180% of base or $14.4 million. Now he is top tier in assists/steals at his position and top 15% in Rebounds/Blocks too. Using this commodity approach, he's worth 15-16 million a year. Now compare Joe. 19 points a game means $15.1 million but he under performs or is average for his position in almost every category so he's about a $14 million dollar player. Just a guesstimate here. So in trading Joe, a fair trade is to get back about a $14 million dollar player or a slightly less than upgrades us elsewhere. This is why Joe and 23 for Lowry and 14,16,18 is a better value trade than the one with Scola/Josh. Because you are getting a better chance to replace value. You aren't just replacing the player. If you think of it in player terms, your biases will come out. Think of it as salary as a part of the cap vs numbers produced.Now let's pretend you could trade Josh for a Center (say Bogut level), moving Horford to the 4. Bogut would produce similar to Horford at the 5 with better defense/rebounding. Horford would produce similar or better than Josh at the 4 with better rebounding. Now we're at a trade that works better. Now improve our draft position in that trade enough to get a better PG/backup SG/upgrade over Marvin and I'd make the trade.I'm not against trading Smoove...I just see it in terms of value vs contract. Even if we resign Josh, it won't be for max. Let him walk and you won't get back the same value in cap space. Trade him and because he's a high value player, you won't get back a good return.I have the same logic with Teague/Horford. There is almost no trade you can get for Horford that would replace his impact for his salary. But because Joe makes 6 million more and is in a need position, might be able to flip him in a 3 way.

taking my statement a step further. A real center next to Horford, plus a solid backup at SG (drafted), quality backup point guard signed improves the roster.Teague/good backupJJ/good backupMarvinHorford/JohnsonBogut/Zazais superior to what we have now. It's all about team makeup and value per salary spent.But don't be fooled. Moving JJ should be priority one, not moving Smith. Edited June 27, 2012 by thecampster

[thecampster]

Josh Smith is a top 25-35 player. He would be rated higher if he wasn't for his shot selection.

Gonna criticize you for a second. When you make statements like "is a top 25-35 player" but don't offer backup information is when you get in trouble. The reality is he might be higher. Two interesting Stats are EWA and VA as a part of Hollinger's PER. Value added is the point difference Hollinger feels the players presence made over the average player. EWA - Estimated Wins Added is number of wins that player added over adding an average player (bench scrub). In both categories, Josh finished 13th this season in his metric of qualified players at 11.2 wins (66 game season). Compared to say Joe Johnson at 8.5 or Lebron James at 23.5. By using a metric to say (he's a top 15 player), I gain some credibility by using these 2 stats. Regardless, this doesn't make me right it only strengthens my argument. Then using PER I could strengthen it. Win shares, defensive win shares would help. +/-, etc. These are total value stats as opposed to just points scored or blocked shots.Less opinions, more facts = more respect.

[coachx]

Deals that would satisfy me for Josh Smith:1. Golden States # 7 pick / and cap fillers such as RJ &/or Biedrins. (I know their contract sucks but our best shot at getting a longterm franchise cornerstone is on the lottery. At pick #7 I target J. Lamb.2. Pau Gasol - He and JJ's window align well. With improvement from Teague / Horford, and a little luck with pick 23, this team could suprise us.3. #14 pick / Martin (I'd try like crazy to get the #18 pick too buts it no deal breaker / maybe flip their 18 pick with our 23rd pick.)4. Get a veteran wing player under 30 years of age to pair with JJ and use the 23rd pick on a center. Possible wings are Iggy, Gay, and Deng. The one that makes the most sense is Philly. The one that makes the most sense to me is Philly since they have the younger T. Young and Iggy at SF. Memphis could make some sense in too. They now have questions at PF with Randolph and were teh only team to give Smoove and offer when he was a restricted free agent.

[coachx]

But don't be fooled. Moving JJ should be priority one, not moving Smith.

Lets be honest with ourselves.I can't see any team in their right mind wanting that contract. The only way I see us trading JJ would be by taking on other bad contracts. Edited June 27, 2012 by coachx

[coachx]

campster is posting realistic news. Nothing crazy and sillly. You don't sell low on commodities. Maybe sell low on Jordan Crawford but you never sell low on Josh Smith.

You sell for what the market value is.......like with anything in this world.or of course you let him walk for nothing.The rules of the CBA and contract status play HUGE parts in NBA trades. The talent and basketball related part is only 50% of what makes a trade work. Edited June 27, 2012 by coachx

[Joker]

Gonna criticize you for a second. When you make statements like "is a top 25-35 player" but don't offer backup information is when you get in trouble. The reality is he might be higher. Two interesting Stats are EWA and VA as a part of Hollinger's PER. Value added is the point difference Hollinger feels the players presence made over the average player. EWA - Estimated Wins Added is number of wins that player added over adding an average player (bench scrub). In both categories, Josh finished 13th this season in his metric of qualified players at 11.2 wins (66 game season). Compared to say Joe Johnson at 8.5 or Lebron James at 23.5. By using a metric to say (he's a top 15 player), I gain some credibility by using these 2 stats. Regardless, this doesn't make me right it only strengthens my argument. Then using PER I could strengthen it. Win shares, defensive win shares would help. +/-, etc. These are total value stats as opposed to just points scored or blocked shots.Less opinions, more facts = more respect.

I was just going by recent rankings. I personally think he's higher but he needs the right fit. I speak in generalities on this forum.

[Joker]

Lets be honest with ourselves.I can't see any team in their right mind wanting that contract. The only way I see us trading JJ would be by taking on other bad contracts.

camp is right but that's not possible. Joe just isn't worth .50 on a dollar right now just like Gasol isn't worth .75 cent on a dollar. Josh is worth 1.25 on a dollar. We can get more for him than his actual value. This is why I would stay pat when it comes to Smith unless we get a good to great offer. I would bite on a fair offer like this but I don't know if Ferry would:Scola 14,16,18 for Smith and 23.

[Admin]

camp is right but that's not possible. Joe just isn't worth .50 on a dollar right now just like Gasol isn't worth .75 cent on a dollar. Josh is worth 1.25 on a dollar. We can get more for him than his actual value. This is why I would stay pat when it comes to Smith unless we get a good to great offer. I would bite on a fair offer like this but I don't know if Ferry would:

Scola 14,16,18 for Smith and 23.

Again you demonstrate a complete lack of knowledge regarding value of expiring players who are due a raise on their upcoming contract. Using your descriptions, Josh is actually worth .75 on a dollar because he's expiring and any team that trades for him is taking a huge gamble that he will re-sign with them, thus creating a situation where they're going to give up less to acquire him than his talent suggests he's worth.

[Joker]

Again you demonstrate a complete lack of knowledge regarding value of expiring players who are due a raise on their upcoming contract. Using your descriptions, Josh is actually worth .75 on a dollar because he's expiring and any team that trades for him is taking a huge gamble that he will re-sign with them, thus creating a situation where they're going to give up less to acquire him than his talent suggests he's worth.

The fact that he's expiring makes his contract more valuable. You are showing a total lack of knowledge. Josh isn't Deron or Dwight. He isn't one who's likely to leave after a year to go to a bigger city. An expiring deal is part of the reason why he is so attractive and the fact that he's an impact player as well. You are starting to become annoying. Josh Smith is extremely valuable, if you can't see that Ray Charles, then we just completely disagree. You are so off right now and then want to call me out. Please. Edited June 27, 2012 by Joker

[Joker]

I might not know the CBA well but I know trade values and values of player as well as personnel groupings. You can go sit down with that Dolfan.I can't believe you are trying to say a top 25-35 player with elite skills on an expiring contract is a bad value. Then you start talking about him like he's Dwight or Deron. Like teams clear cap to add Josh Smith to their squad. Man, the stuff you guys say sometimes is amazing.

Edited June 27, 2012 by Joker