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To tank or not to tank... that is the question that the Suns [and Hawksquawk members] ponder


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This is from an article about the Suns but I found one part to be of particular interest as it pertains to much heated debate around here since the season ended.

http://www.nba.com/2012/news/features/david_aldridge/07/30/morning-tip-lon-babby-steve-nash-departure-from-suns/index.html?ls=iref:nbahpt1

"We went back and looked at all teams over the last 30 years and how they rebuilt," Sarver said. "The reality is that if you go bad for a few years to get good, there's no assurances you're ever going to get good. There are a few exceptions like Oklahoma City, but the majority of the teams have taken six to 10 years to rebuild."

Now, for those who wanted us to tank, do you still feel that way even in the face of 30 years of data that apparently show it's a bad idea?
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For me, it depends on the alternative. I would rather tank (in future years - there is no tanking this season) than sign two guys like Ibaka to big contracts and end up back in the land of teams that will make it to the second round of the playoffs in a good year.For example, I would rather be New Orleans today than Milwaukee.

Edited by AHF
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I definitely do not advocate maxing out non-superstar players. I think the way to go about it is to have 4-5 guys making in the 10-12 million range and then filling out the rest of the roster with better than minimum level players, preferably guys with talent who are on rookie deals.

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I've never played the lottery in my life. Definitely wouldn't depend on it to build a franchise, especially with this fickle fan base and uncertainty of college players. Tanking gets coaches and GMs fired and lowers players' value. Bad all around.

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I am as far from being for tanking as one can be... There is such a low probability that it'll actually work and, as the OP quoted, it takes YEARS for a team to rebound from tanking. Most members argument on the Squawk that are for tanking believe in there hearts that if we tank, we will get the #1 pick and draft the next phenom. In today's drafts, players are busts more times than they are a success. Also, I don't see any LBJ's or Carmelo's coming out any time soon. Also, even if we did tank, more than likely we would end up in the 5-10 area, not 1st overall. I'd would rather take a step back this season in trading Joe & Marv, so that we can take a couple steps forward in the future. We have two great players hitting their prime (Horf and Smoove) and a PG that is on the verge of hitting his. We are seriously just a couple key FA signings and a cheap bench player away from being contenders. There is no reason for the Hawks to tank... And it's not going to happen. As DF said, we are in rearranging mode, not rebuilding mode.

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BIG NO to tanking...I never really wanted to start over just wanted to get rid of johnsons contract as well as marvins. I didnt really want to rebuild I always wanted to redo certain positions I guess. I think that holding on to JJ wouldnt have gave us any room for being better...Ferry said that himself!I mean jj was good and still is but the hawks still make the playoffs without him and who knows if AL and Josh or even Teague really steps it up we will be back in the 2nd round! Seriously it depends.Never thought we should dump the whole roster though...just thought we should get out of bad contracts and maybe trade one of our all star powerforwards for a true 3 like rudy gay (then again im ok with keeping smith at the 3)

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The ONLY player I'd consider tanking for is Shabazz Muhammad. But tanking is too much of a crap shoot IMHO. Intentional tanking also breeds bad habits in players and would only fuel the general idea that the Hawks are a crap organization.

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I've always been in the Anti-tank movement. Even back in 2007, when people actually didn't want a below. 500 Hawks team to make the playoffs because they were certain that Boston would destroy us, thus, making the playoffs being a waste of time.And that's why I was so against giving away JJ for scraps. Gotta get SOME talent for him, whether it be Marshon Brooks or even Gerald Wallace ( who would look real good on the Hawks now, seeing that we don't have a legit SF. )

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I've always been in the Anti-tank movement. Even back in 2007, when people actually didn't want a below. 500 Hawks team to make the playoffs because they were certain that Boston would destroy us, thus, making the playoffs being a waste of time. And that's why I was so against giving away JJ for scraps. Gotta get SOME talent for him, whether it be Marshon Brooks or even Gerald Wallace ( who would look real good on the Hawks now, seeing that we don't have a legit SF. )

LOL. People were mad at Woody for shortening his rotation and trying to win games to keep that 8th spot.
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WowGerald Wallace, really?Lets just take away most of our cap flexibility next summer by overpaying for talent that won't get usto a championshipWe tried to get brooks but they weren't having it bc they wanted him for d12 trade...better to do jj deal as is than not at allFans always think they can magically get players that we didn't get in the trade...

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Agreed. I wouldn't take a 4 year, $40 Wallace for free right now. He is on the decline for sure.

I like Wallace a lot. He is a good shooter that can create his own shot, but he is definitely on the decline and not worth the $10 mil/yr he is getting paid. There is a reason why GW has bounced around the league for the past couple years... I believe he is in the best possible situation for him in Brooklyn because he is the 4th or 5th option on that team right now.
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we need to get our big 3 before we overpay for guys like wallace

Agreed. Plus, that overpayment was also about Billy King saving his job for giving away the #6 pick in the draft for a few months of Wallace if they failed to resign him. I think he was in a "resign at all costs" category for the wealthy Nets.
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I am in rare form..... Cheap Vodka (dis one) and a topic that I like...that I feel strongly about! DA! Let's talk.....

Man.......

There is this thing, that you just can't put your finger on when it comes to professional sports. Some people swear by it. Others pass it off in a dismissive storm of "whatever....xyz...abc...e=mc2" This thing completely changes the game. Most people don't get it at all.

It's like - one part luck, one part strategy, one part divine intervention. It results in your team having the cap space to absorb Shaq, while you're sitting on the next great shooting guard. It results in your team drafting a skinny 7 foot European and throwing shit at the wall until you find something that comes from behind and wins you a championship. You miss out on the top pick in the 1984 draft...you whiff on Hakeem...you whiff on Bowie...and you somehow manage to end up with Charles Barkley.

Oh wait...that's not right!

You end up with arguably the greatest player to ever play, whose name is synonymous with Chicago Bulls basketball. But what if Dallas had gotten him? Or Philly? Or....well, the possibilities are endless.

"You're not making any sense, you Wretched FOOL!"

Yes I am. Somebody hears it.

At the end of the day, you've got to put yourself in a position to get THAT guy. Then you build a team around him and you make history. It's not about tanking. It's not about free agents. It's not about cap space. It's about right place and right time. What you have to do is evalutate where you are and what your best option is to GET yourself into the right place at the right time. When you get to the right place, you make the right move. None of this all 6'8" bullshit. None of this promise to a mid 1st at #5. None of this trying to win bullshit when you are umpteen gazillion games out of the playoffs.

Something just as stupid...? Trying to patch up a 2nd round team. With hopes of....being more competitive in the 2nd round.

So tank? No.

Do what it takes to get THAT guy and don't stop until you get him. That's my answer. Trying to factor in when and how and for how long to play the odds...is a losing strategy. Oddly enough, building a sports team is a metaphor for the game itself.

How many factors go into bottom of the 9th...

Down by 2....

2 runners on...

???

The closer...

The batter...

The catcher's call...

???

The velocity of the pitch...

The timing of the bat...

???

The wind...?

Adrenaline...?

???

In the end, we as sports fans will debate until the cows come home what led to the homerun hit. Someone will pull up all these fancy stats showing why you don't throw that pitch to that guy in that situation. Someone else will rebuke it with a contradicting set of facts. There will be an idiot like me in there throwing all sorts of hyperboles and sensationalism....

But how could you predict all those factors that go into that particular situation?

You don't.

You just put yourself in a position to capitalize. To win.

(Man...I really want another shot...but it's Monday...and I gotta get up in the morning. SHHHEEEEAAAAAAT.)

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