To tank or not to tank... that is the question that the Suns [and Hawksquawk members] ponder

[MaceCase]

"Where 1.7% happens"

[Sothron]

I definitely do not advocate maxing out non-superstar players. I think the way to go about it is to have 4-5 guys making in the 10-12 million range and then filling out the rest of the roster with better than minimum level players, preferably guys with talent who are on rookie deals.

Sorry but that is just not going to win a title. You need superstars to win rings not a bunch of good but not great players. We just blew up a team with good but not great players.

[AHF]

Sorry but that is just not going to win a title. You need superstars to win rings not a bunch of good but not great players. We just blew up a team with good but not great players.

I share that view. Whether the great player comes from trade, draft or FA, that needs to be the core of a champion team. I would not bank on the Detroit model repeating.

[Admin]

Sorry but that is just not going to win a title. You need superstars to win rings not a bunch of good but not great players. We just blew up a team with good but not great players.

Sorry but I don't agree with that. If you can have four Al Horford / Josh Smith levels of player (10-12 million) and 3-4 more good quality supporting players you can absolutely win a title. If we had a healthy Horford and 2 more players of his skill level instead of Joe Johnson then we could have easily challenged the Heat last year.

[Wretch]

Sorry but that is just not going to win a title. You need superstars to win rings not a bunch of good but not great players. We just blew up a team with good but not great players.

Agreed...

I share that view. Whether the great player comes from trade, draft or FA, that needs to be the core of a champion team. I would not bank on the Detroit model repeating.

And agreed...

There is no way to predict how these things are going to play out. Looking at the history of the draft is so funny. In hindsight, we laugh about the mistakes. In some cases, people like to pretend as if they would have made the right choice (sadly, with some people actually believing they would have). I wonder how many people in here would have actually taken Michael Jordan over Hakeem or Bowie in that situation...?

Regardless, it's tricky, there's some luck to it, and honestly...it's not just the lottery. There are so many 1st and 2nd rounders that flunk right out of the NBA. Think of all the 1st rounders WE drafted in the 90's...Ed Gray? Roshown? Donnie Boyce? While some really good players emerge from mid to late 1st and even the 2nd round. Rajon Rondo? Tony Parker? Michael Redd? Josh Smith?

It's all about right place and right time and I would never just turn my nose up at that or any strategy to land a superstar. Because ultimately, that's what brings in the fans, that's what brings in the help, and that's what wins the big games. So if we tank the season, so be it. Would I be against it? Not at all. I'd welcome it. Would I be mad if we made the playoffs...not really; I wouldn't be excited either because I KNOW how that will turn out.

Would I want to fill the roster up with a bunch of "good" players at Josh Smith level salary? That's no better than what we spent the last 4 years doing.

[Admin]

I share that view. Whether the great player comes from trade, draft or FA, that needs to be the core of a champion team. I would not bank on the Detroit model repeating.

The Pistons were the best team in the Eastern Conference for a good part of the last decade and I'd absolutely put them up against the Heat from last year and expect that with fair officiating that the Pistons would beat them.

[Admin]

Would I want to fill the roster up with a bunch of "good" players at Josh Smith level salary? That's no better than what we spent the last 4 years doing.

No we had 2 players at the Josh Smith level and 1 at his level who was paid twice as much. You divide that overpaid player into 2 more Josh Smith level players and actually have a quality bench and you can compete. Hell the Spurs proved it last year, unless you're of the opinion that Parker, Gino and an aging Duncan are vastly superior to a Josh Smith level of player.

[Sothron]

Sorry but I don't agree with that. If you can have four Al Horford / Josh Smith levels of player (10-12 million) and 3-4 more good quality supporting players you can absolutely win a title. If we had a healthy Horford and 2 more players of his skill level instead of Joe Johnson then we could have easily challenged the Heat last year.

If we had Horford and two players of his skill level? You mean Joe Johnson a better player than Horford and Josh Smith an equal level player? Yes, we've had those guys for years. We saw how that ended. You either have superstars and a chance to win a title or you are just playing for the second round at best.

[Admin]

If we had Horford and two players of his skill level? You mean Joe Johnson a better player than Horford and Josh Smith an equal level player? Yes, we've had those guys for years. We saw how that ended. You either have superstars and a chance to win a title or you are just playing for the second round at best.

I know you're a Joe f'n Johnson fan and proud of it, but he's no longer superior to Josh or Al. At best he's their equal at this point in their respective careers and Josh and Al are improving while Joe is declining. And no, I mean if we had: Al Horford (10-12 million) Josh Smith (10-12 million) Al / Josh level player (10-12 million) Al / Josh level player (10-12 million) Teague / Harris level player (5-10 million) + 4-5 mid-level salary quality bench players (16-20 million total) So you're looking at 60-75 million in salary and a team that is deep and balanced as far as skill goes. That team can absolutely compete for a championship.

[AHF]

The Pistons were the best team in the Eastern Conference for a good part of the last decade and I'd absolutely put them up against the Heat from last year and expect that with fair officiating that the Pistons would beat them.

I expect the Heat take that hypothetical series. The Pistons lost a lot in the Eastern Conference finals in a not so great East and made the finals twice, taking one championship. If the Heat don't make the Finals more than that, I will be very surprised.

[AHF]

I know you're a Joe f'n Johnson fan and proud of it, but he's no longer superior to Josh or Al. At best he's their equal at this point in their respective careers and Josh and Al are improving while Joe is declining. And no, I mean if we had: Al Horford (10-12 million) Josh Smith (10-12 million) Al / Josh level player (10-12 million) Al / Josh level player (10-12 million) Teague / Harris level player (5-10 million) + 4-5 mid-level salary quality bench players (16-20 million total) So you're looking at 60-75 million in salary and a team that is deep and balanced as far as skill goes. That team can absolutely compete for a championship.

Why don't you go ahead and pick a few players to fill in at that range so you can work off of a more specific model. Mileage may vary on comparing to Horford or Smith "level" players to existing backcourt guys (opinions differ significantly on what level they are on). It also may speak to the realism of putting that team together. Also, Josh Smith is already above your pay grade for him ($13.2M this season). Are you expecting him to take a salary cut this offseason? I am assuming he is hoping for a raise. Edited July 31, 2012 by AHF

[Sothron]

I know you're a Joe f'n Johnson fan and proud of it, but he's no longer superior to Josh or Al. At best he's their equal at this point in their respective careers and Josh and Al are improving while Joe is declining. And no, I mean if we had: Al Horford (10-12 million) Josh Smith (10-12 million) Al / Josh level player (10-12 million) Al / Josh level player (10-12 million) Teague / Harris level player (5-10 million) + 4-5 mid-level salary quality bench players (16-20 million total) So you're looking at 60-75 million in salary and a team that is deep and balanced as far as skill goes. That team can absolutely compete for a championship.

So you think a Detroit model that has been shown numerous times can not win a title and the only one (1) singular title that model managed to win has been proven an exception to the rule you need superstars to win a title. No thanks to that. Time and time again it is shown you need superstars to win a ring. That is all I care about as a fan. I want my team to win a title not settle for second round purgatory.

[Admin]

Why don't you go ahead and pick a few players to fill in at that range so you can work off of a more specific model. Mileage may vary on comparing to Horford or Smith "level" players to existing backcourt guys (opinions differ significantly on what level they are on). It also may speak to the realism of putting that team together. Also, Josh Smith is already above your pay grade for him ($13.2M this season). Are you expecting him to take a salary cut this offseason? I am assuming he is hoping for a raise.

That's a good idea - how about you put an Iggy and Harden together with Al and Josh + Teague or Harris and then 4-5 Lou Williams mid-level exception salaried players. I'm assuming that contracts are going to come down some as Ferry (I believe) was saying that under the new CBA that you can't have these mega contracts and that players would have to fall in line with that to be able to have a competitive team. Note I'm not saying it's illegal to have a mega contract, just that you can't build a competitive team with contracts like that.

[Admin]

So you think a Detroit model that has been shown numerous times can not win a title and the only one (1) singular title that model managed to win has been proven an exception to the rule you need superstars to win a title. No thanks to that. Time and time again it is shown you need superstars to win a ring. That is all I care about as a fan. I want my team to win a title not settle for second round purgatory.

I'm talking about a team model, not the Detroit model of being dominant defensively and ok offensively. I'm talking about a team that is much more offensively skilled while still being in the upper 12 or so defensively, just as the Spurs were last year. You can sit back and dream about building a team around a trio of superstars all you want but that is highly unlikely to ever happen in Atlanta.

[AHF]

That's a good idea - how about you put an Iggy and Harden together with Al and Josh + Teague or Harris and then 4-5 Lou Williams mid-level exception salaried players. I'm assuming that contracts are going to come down some as Ferry (I believe) was saying that under the new CBA that you can't have these mega contracts and that players would have to fall in line with that to be able to have a competitive team. Note I'm not saying it's illegal to have a mega contract, just that you can't build a competitive team with contracts like that.

Here are my salary expectations for that core for 2013/14: James Harden - Max Contract (see Eric Gordon with a dangerous injury profile; someone will send him a max offer for sure) Andre Iguodala - $15.9M (I doubt his then current team fails to exercise the option and lets him become an UFA) Al Horford - $12M (great deal) Josh Smith - $14M So I ballpark that core as costing $59M/season. Personally, I agree with the predictions that a part of the FA market is going to find salaries depressed but I don't think it will be these guys. There are only so many studs around and they will continue to get market salaries. Guys like Josh Childress will be the ones who find they can no longer consistently snooker teams into inflated contracts. So if you now add in a Jeff Teague at $6M, you are looking at $65M before you start on your bench so I think that is an unrealistic group for the type of team you were looking at in terms of depth, etc.

[Admin]

Here are my salary expectations for that core for 2013/14: James Harden - Max Contract (see Eric Gordon with a dangerous injury profile; someone will send him a max offer for sure) Andre Iguodala - $15.9M (I doubt his then current team fails to exercise the option and lets him become an UFA) Al Horford - $12M (great deal) Josh Smith - $14M So I ballpark that core as costing $59M/season. Personally, I agree with the predictions that a part of the FA market is going to find salaries depressed but I don't think it will be these guys. There are only so many studs around and they will continue to get market salaries. Guys like Josh Childress will be the ones who find they can no longer consistently snooker teams into inflated contracts. So if you now add in a Jeff Teague at $6M, you are looking at $65M before you start on your bench so I think that is an unrealistic group for the type of team you were looking at in terms of depth, etc.

I expect that Harden will be in the $13-$14 million range like where Gordon is. Harden has question marks about him so I highly doubt he gets more than that. I don't think that $60 million for 4 core studs like that, especially not when you consider the Heat are spending that on 3 players. You absolutely have to commit to paying the tax, but that's a team with 4 legit offensive and defensive options in the starting lineup and you'll have to use the new CBA to your advantage to find guys to fill out the bench. Maybe it's unrealistic, but for those wanting a superstar trio it's going to cost at least that much for just 3 players.

[Wretch]

A couple of problems with the Team Model or Detroit Model...

For one, you have to build it. There is going to be a problem getting these guys to come play for us without overpaying them. Otherwise, they're going elsewhere. To sit here and talk about adding productive players at reasonable contracts implies that Atlanta is a preferred destination. Players want to win. The best follow the best. They may not pile up all on super teams, but they're going to look at us and ask what we have to offer.

We're not going to sell them on building a team of pretty good players and being competitive. They may not be Dwight Howard or Carmelo Anthony or Deron Williams, but they will follow suit much the same way. They'll ask for SnT's to their preferred destinations. The only way we'll get them is by overpaying. The only other argument here is that we'll be signing max free agents...in which case, we're back to square one and nobody is debating that point. We're still going after max quality guys (whether it be draft or FAcy).

The other big problem here is the pudding...or rather, the proof in it. These good but not great teams compete. No matter how you build your competitive team, you're still talking about Mookie/Smitty/Deke or Joe/Al/Josh. You're not talking about building a serious contender or a team that can go deep in the playoffs. You're talking about the same kind of team we've trotted out on the court for the past 20 something years.

Unless you are now talking about the actual Detroit Model...in which case, you're still off. That team won because it was supremely talented. It was not a fluke and honestly, they don't get the credit they deserve - offensively or defensively. To replicate that team, you'll need Ben Wallace. While I have personally argued that Josh Smith could be a better Ben Wallace, the fact is...he has yet to show any interest in being that kind of player. What he's going to give you is great production on both ends...but he's going to kill you with inopportune shots and turnovers. Lots of them. You can't have that Detroit Model and have Josh playing that way too. You also need a Billups/Hamilton backcourt in their prime, but personally, I don't think this warrants discussion.

So the short of it is: we'll have to overpay for average talent or pray that someone wants to be here and not with a better organization or a more talented core. Both counter the building the "good" team method. Even if you build the "good" team, you're still hitting a 2nd round ceiling. That has been the case in the NBA for as long as any of us have been watching. You need an engine...not just a bunch of good parts. Lastly, I think people vastly under appreciate how talented that Detroit team was.

BTW...San Antonio is still San Antonio. No matter how old those guys are. That team has ran in the NBA's dominant circles for eons now. They know how to play and more importantly, they know how to play together. We'd have to build that team in it's prime first and let it settle into what it is today. In it's prime, you're still looking at anchoring that team with one of the best players in the league.

[TheNorthCydeRises]

Even with the Detroit model, they had a superstar. And it wasn't Chauncey or Rip.The true superstar on that team was Ben Wallace. A defensive superstar who was the true pulse of that team. The center of the tough, rugged style of basketball that made them champions.The "Detroit Model" would mean that the Hawks would want to get Josh Smith, Andre Iguodala, and Roy Hibbert to be on the same team, while at the same time having a backcourt who could provide consistent points while playing defense. And then have at least 2 guys off the bench that could contribute at high enough levels to not cause any dropoff in talent or intensity on the defensive end.PG - Ty LawsonG - James HardenF - Andre IguodalaPF - Josh SmithC - Roy HibbertKey bench playersG - Darren CollisonG - John JenkinsF - Kawhi LenoardF - Kenneth FariedC - Bismack BiyomboThat would essentially be the "Detroit Model". A team that has enough interior and perimeter defense to slow teams down significantly, while also being good enough offensively to provide timely offense.

[TheNorthCydeRises]

Even with the Detroit model, they had a superstar. And it wasn't Chauncey or Rip. The true superstar on that team was Ben Wallace. A defensive superstar who was the true pulse of that team. The center of the tough, rugged style of basketball that made them champions. The "Detroit Model" would mean that the Hawks would want to get Josh Smith, Andre Iguodala, and Roy Hibbert to be on the same team, while at the same time having a backcourt who could provide consistent points while playing defense. And then have at least 2 guys off the bench that could contribute at high enough levels to not cause any dropoff in talent or intensity on the defensive end. PG - Ty Lawson G - James Harden F - Andre Iguodala PF - Josh Smith C - Roy Hibbert Key bench players G - Darren Collison G - John Jenkins F - Kawhi Lenoard F - Kenneth Faried C - Bismack Biyombo That would essentially be the "Detroit Model". A team that has enough interior and perimeter defense to slow teams down significantly, while also being good enough offensively to provide timely offense.

Now could that team win a title? Probably not. Could they get to the EC Finals? Yeah, they probably could. But even THAT team is stockpiled with the "right" type of talent that you would find in the lottery and late in the 1st round. To build the "Detroit Model", you not only have to have a GM that knows what the hell he's doing, you also need a good to great coach who could maximize the talent on that roster. Drew couldn't coach that team.

[AHF]

I expect that Harden will be in the $13-$14 million range like where Gordon is. Harden has question marks about him so I highly doubt he gets more than that. I don't think that $60 million for 4 core studs like that, especially not when you consider the Heat are spending that on 3 players. You absolutely have to commit to paying the tax, but that's a team with 4 legit offensive and defensive options in the starting lineup and you'll have to use the new CBA to your advantage to find guys to fill out the bench. Maybe it's unrealistic, but for those wanting a superstar trio it's going to cost at least that much for just 3 players.

Gordon has a 4 year, $58M contract max contract and just missed most of the last 2 seasons and has never performed at a level materially above where Harden was last season. Either way, it is a max extension so it literally can't get above that if a team other than OKC is signing him. I would definitely rather build around a true superstar plus 2 midlevel studs getting salaries significantly above 12M per (like Harden) than 4 guys in the 10-12 million range.