ESPN Future Rankings: Atlanta 15

[HawkItus]

15. Atlanta Hawks | Future Power Rating: 611

PLAYERS MANAGEMENT MONEY MARKET DRAFT 213 (23rd) 106 (13th) 197 (1st) 46 (14th) 49 (13th)

The reign of new general manager Danny Ferry has the Hawks on the upswing in our rankings, even though we've soured on their roster significantly in the short term. With Joe Johnson and his massive contract shipped out of town, in a deal that was surprisingly unburdensome for Atlanta, and Marvin Williams departing under similarly cap-friendly circumstances, the Hawks are suddenly in the best cap situation of any team in the league. Which is amazing, because six months ago we rated it one of the worst. Only Al Horford, Lou Williams and first-round pick John Jenkins are signed beyond this season. Atlanta moved from 26th to first in this category, and its 25-place jump was the largest of any team in any category.

We're not as high on Atlanta's players, however. With Johnson gone, Williams flipped for Devin Harris, and Josh Smith in the final year of his deal, the Hawks' foundation isn't quite as solid as in the past. Jeff Teague and Lou Williams offer intrigue, but Horford is the only key player who is both signed and guaranteed to make an impact. Atlanta had the largest drop of any team in the players category.

Atlanta gets good grades for Ferry's arrival, too, as the new GM has given the team a coherent strategy beyond "Let's try to win 45 games again." While he made mistakes in Cleveland, the Cavs were also the league's best regular-season team in his final two seasons there, and his opening moves in Atlanta -- trading Johnson, using the trade exception to get Kyle Korver for free, signing Lou Williams, and the Marvin Williams trade -- have all been firmly on the plus side.

But whether he can get Atlanta out of the middle class and into the upper crust largely depends on what he can do with all that cap space. Atlanta native Dwight Howard now seems like a long shot, but perhaps other openings will emerge.

(Previous rank: 19)

[TheNorthCydeRises]

So in other words, our #1 ranking in ( Money ) will determine our overall future ranking. Because as the money ( cap space ) decreases, the quality of players has to increase dramatically.I see that's an ESPN Insider article. If you don't mind, post the top 10 when they publish it. Thanks

Edited August 15, 2012 by northcyde

[TheNorthCydeRises]

Of course, this is Hollinger that we're talking about, so there will be some bias ( for or against ) the Hawks.

[HawkItus]

So in other words, our #1 ranking in ( Money ) will determine our overall future ranking. Because as the money ( cap space ) decreases, the quality of players has to increase dramatically.

I see that's an ESPN Insider article. If you don't mind, post the top 10 when they publish it. Thanks

1. Miami Heat | Future Power Rating: 843

PLAYERS MANAGEMENT MONEY MARKET DRAFT 538 (2nd) 176 (3rd) 10 (30th) 93 (3rd) 26 (24th)

After winning the championship and then backing up the truck to load in some more veteran talent, we're bullish on Miami's future, too. The Heat have the game's best player in LeBron James, and that doesn't seem likely to change in the near future. And, of course, they surround him with two other All-Stars still in their prime; those facts alone push Miami to second in the players category, even with little to show for its investments in the roster surrounding its three stars. But sun and sand will take care of that part.

While the Heat don't have much money to spend -- they're a tax team and owner Micky Arison has indicated his pockets go only so deep in this market, so we rated them dead last in this category -- it seems as though it hardly matters; between the beaches, night life and the chance to win a title, it's a veritable talent magnet. Ray Allen and Rashard Lewis washed up on South Beach this summer despite minimal offers in dollars; in future years, you can count on other vets arriving by similar means.

Miami even improved its future draft position by stealthily plucking a protected first-round pick from Philadelphia on draft night. As a result, the Heat moved up six spots in the draft category, to 24th.

Finally, Erik Spoelstra burnished his rep as one of the league's best young coaches by leading this group to a title. With Pat Riley still pulling the levers in the front office, we rated this management team third. Overall, one assumes it will become much easier for this group now that the monkey is off its back, which is why it edges out the Thunder and Lakers for the top spot.

(Previous rank: 2)

2. Oklahoma City Thunder | Future Power Rating: 822

PLAYERS MANAGEMENT MONEY MARKET DRAFT 543 (1st) 190 (2nd) 25 (27th) 44 (16th) 20 (28th)

The Thunder have arguably the best players and management, so what's not to like here? Oklahoma City places second in our latest survey, as it won the Western Conference with a core group still in its early 20s and figures to remain elite for several years to come.

Yet you can find the kernels of storm clouds if you look hard enough, particularly on the financial end. Max deals for Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook and likely big-money deals for James Harden and Serge Ibaka will strain the finances in this small market, likely requiring creative solutions to fill out the rest of the roster and still avoid the worst ravages of the luxury tax.

Additionally, getting veterans to come here will be a harder sell than other markets. To the Thunder's credit, they've built up enough of a winning culture that they now get considered -- Derek Fisher landed here last season, for instance -- but they're still going to come behind the coastal cities. And while their four stars have shined, some of the secondary talent -- most notably Kendrick Perkins -- has disappointed.

That's where good management comes in. Sam Presti has shown himself to be among the league's best general managers, and regardless of what he did in Seattle, owner Clay Bennett has shown he can operate a basketball franchise. We rated the Thunder's front office second behind only San Antonio -- the team that is in many ways the blueprint for success.

(Previous rank: 1)

3. Los Angeles Lakers | Future Power Rating: 816

PLAYERS MANAGEMENT MONEY MARKET DRAFT 530 (3rd) 155 (6th) 25 (28th) 100 (1st) 6 (30th)

We liked L.A.'s players before, but now we love them -- only Brooklyn increased its score more in this category, leaving the Lakers a close third behind Miami and Oklahoma City. Obviously, the additions of Steve Nash and Dwight Howard are the reason. As long as the Lakers are willing to fork out $100 million in payroll and deal with the luxury-tax hit, they'll have one of the league's best rosters.

It's never clear exactly how much credit to give the Lakers' management -- everybody wants to play there and there's always money lying around if they need it, which affords them deals that simply aren't presented to other teams. Nonetheless, it's clear this is one of the league's better-run franchises, with strong, committed ownership, GM Mitch Kupchak quietly navigating the surrounding storm of publicity and Mike Brown an underrated bench jockey.

The biggest concern, and the one that has the Lakers third instead of first, is how they refill the cupboard. Kobe Bryant, Pau Gasol and Nash are all well into their 30s and Howard has a bad back. Meanwhile, one thing the Lakers won't be doing much of is drafting: They have one first-round pick and one second-round pick in the three-year span we're studying, yielding the lowest draft rating of any team.

Nonetheless, we know the endgame if one of L.A.'s stars should falter: Some other star will clamor to wear purple and gold. The Lakers got a perfect 100 for their market, a gift that keeps on giving them star players as long as they do the other things right.

(Previous rank: 11)

4. Utah Jazz | Future Power Rating: 774

PLAYERS MANAGEMENT MONEY MARKET DRAFT 353 (11th) 145 (8th) 179 (3rd) 32 (23th) 65 (10th)

A year and half ago, the Jazz looked dead in the water. Franchise legend Jerry Sloan retired in the middle of the season and All-Star point guard Deron Williams was abruptly shipped to the Nets at the trade deadline for a handful of prospects.

But after two really solid summers and a better-than-expected season in 2011-12, our optimism for the Jazz has never been higher. How does a No. 8-seed in the Western Conference without any stars warrant such a position?

Despite working in a less-than-desirable market, Jazz executive vice president Kevin O'Connor continues to be proactive in rebuilding this roster in a way that keeps the team winning while adding young pieces for the future.

The Jazz have solid veterans such as Paul Millsap and Al Jefferson, but they also have very intriguing young players being groomed at multiple positions. Derrick Favors, a No. 3 overall pick, looked like a potential stud at the end of last season. Gordon Hayward improved dramatically in his second year. And lottery picks Enes Kanter and Alec Burks showed potential in their rookie season.

This summer, the Jazz took another step forward by acquiring point guard Mo Williams for essentially nothing. We believe Williams is a major upgrade over Devin Harris and should help bring stability to the roster. The addition of Marvin Williams should also help. While Marvin Williams has failed to live up to his pre-draft reputation, the player once selected a spot ahead of Deron Williams is still a solid defender who adds a veteran presence at the 3.

O'Connor has also been the master at acquiring additional lottery picks over the years, and the Jazz are set to grab another one from the Golden State Warriors in 2013. The team is also poised to have some real money to work with next summer when Jefferson, Millsap and Mo Williams come off the books.

The Jazz also put a succession plan for the 63-year-old O'Connor in motion this summer by appointing Dennis Lindsey of the Spurs as their new general manager. Lindsey is highly regarded by just about everyone in the league and should be ready to run things after being mentored by Carroll Dawson, R.C. Buford and now O'Connor.

The Jazz are still a year or two and a piece or two away from being serious contenders, but all signs continue to point in the right direction.

(Previous rank: 7)

5. Indiana Pacers | Future Power Rating: 702

PLAYERS MANAGEMENT MONEY MARKET DRAFT 408 (5th) 110 (12th) 110 (14th) 41 (19th) 33 (20th)

The Pacers might not be the Miami Heat, but with Chicago's Derrick Rose expected to miss a large chunk of the 2012-13 season and the Celtics continuing to show signs of aging, Indiana might be the second-best team in the East right now. Given how young most of the Pacers' current roster is, they should stay in that position for some time.

This team doesn't have a big star, but they are very solid 1 through 5 and have excellent chemistry. Danny Granger is in his prime, David West looked better and better as the season progressed, Roy Hibbert is playing like an All-Star, George Hill showed potential as a starting point guard and Paul George may very well be the best player on this team a year from now, if not one of the best players in the league. He has that much potential.

Still, there is reason to worry. Team president Larry Bird retired and GM David Morway resigned at the end of the season, and they were replaced by former Pacers and Knicks president Donnie Walsh and former Blazers GM Kevin Pritchard. Both Walsh and Pritchard have stellar reputations, but it remains to be seen if they can execute as well as Bird and Morway did.

They got off to a rocky start this summer. The Pacers were forced to re-sign Hibbert to a max contract, gave an excessive deal to Hill, traded away Darren Collison for the right to overpay Ian Mahinmi and probably reached a bit when they selected Miles Plumlee in the late first round.

Still, the Pacers seem poised to make a run at the Heat for the next few seasons. It's unlikely they will catch them without adding a star to the roster, but if Miami suffers injuries or chemistry issues down the road, Indiana seems to be in the best position to take its spot atop the East.

(Previous rank: 5)

Future Power Rankings: 1-5 | 6-10 | 11-15 | 16-20 | 21-25 | 26-30

6. Dallas Mavericks | Future Power Rating: 697

PLAYERS MANAGEMENT MONEY MARKET DRAFT 273 (17th) 165 (5th) 153 (7th) 75 (7th) 31 (21st)

Mavericks owner Mark Cuban made a huge gamble last summer when he balked at signing veterans such as Tyson Chandler and Caron Butler so he could have a shot this summer at landing either Deron Williams or Dwight Howard. At the time we felt it was a risk worth taking. We may have been wrong.

The Mavs were very close to landing Williams and may still get their hands on Howard next summer, but realistically, their chances of landing a superstar have diminished dramatically. Now they're left with a very good Dirk Nowitzki, several past-their-prime vets and a handful of younger castoffs.

Several Dallas vets, including Jason Terry and Jason Kidd, walked away this summer. A couple of others, such as Lamar Odom and Brendan Haywood, were kicked to the curb. Their replacements are interesting, though. The Mavs landed Elton Brand for next to nothing. The same goes for Darren Collison, who was a starter for much of last season and had the highest playoff player efficiency rating of any Pacer. Then they landed free-agent guard O.J. Mayo on a reasonable two-year deal and picked up veteran big man Chris Kaman on a one-year deal.

Realistically, the Mavericks look like a team that will be fighting for the eighth seed in the Western Conference next season. But down the road, the team is still loaded with flexibility for the future. Cuban has proven he can lure top free agents to Big D and the Mavs should be able to land a max player in the summer of 2013 or several in the summer of 2014 if they need to.

While we understand that the Mavs' future is less than clear, we continue to find it hard to bet against Cuban. Great management, significant financial resources and an inviting market usually lead to great things. Yes, the Mavs were burned this summer, but they continue to be positioned to make a big splash down the road.

(Previous rank: 6)

7. Denver Nuggets | Future Power Rating: 687

PLAYERS MANAGEMENT MONEY MARKET DRAFT 407 (6th) 130 (9th) 76 (20th) 42 (17th) 32 (27th)

We ranked Denver's management ninth, but given the deals general manager Masai Ujiri has made we might have them too low. The blockbuster trades involving both Carmelo Anthony and Dwight Howard both ended with Ujiri's Nuggets in the winner's circle, and some other deals in between weren't too shabby either (notably getting Corey Brewer for free last winter). The horde of assets he got in the Anthony deal has essentially rebuilt this team into one just as good, and the addition of defensive ace Andre Iguodala this summer may further things.

There are no stars here, but we like the Nuggets' deep, young, talented roster enough to rank them sixth in players. Guys such as Ty Lawson, Danilo Gallinari, Kenneth Faried, JaVale McGee, Kosta Koufos and Wilson Chandler should be entering their peak years, while Iguodala remains a potent two-way force on the wings.

Unfortunately, this profusion of good-but-not-greats likely condemns Denver to an upper-middle-class existence unless it can swing a blockbuster for a superstar, especially given the opposition in a loaded Western Conference that contains FPR-ranked teams Nos. 2, 3, 4, 6 and 9.

The other categories won't help them in this regard. They're likely to be too good to have much help coming from the draft, and their mid-tier market is unlikely to lure much top-notch talent. Meanwhile, the finances are a concern too. The Nuggets don't have a ton of wiggle space under the luxury tax and have a lot of young players they're going to need to pay. The Kroenke family's history, save for one expensive dalliance with Allen Iverson, is that they'll pinch pennies where they can.

(Previous rank: 8)

8. Chicago Bulls | Future Power Rating: 684

PLAYERS MANAGEMENT MONEY MARKET DRAFT 392 (8th) 130 (10th) 37 (25th) 77 (6th) 48 (15th)

Two editions ago, the Bulls claimed the No. 1 spot in our rankings. A year and a half later, a devastating injury to superstar Derrick Rose and some significant losses to the bench have taken their toll.

There still remains a lot to be bullish about in Chicago. If Rose recovers from a torn ACL and returns to his MVP form, the Bulls' starting five will remain very dangerous. However, we have our concerns that ownership may not be able to afford to keep this team together, especially its high-caliber bench.

Chicago let Omer Asik walk this summer and might be forced to do the same with Taj Gibson when he hits restricted free agency next offseason. The Bulls have also openly explored moving another player, most likely Luol Deng, as a way to create more space between them and the luxury tax. As a result, both their management and roster scores took a considerable hit in our ratings.

If Rose hadn't gotten hurt and the Bulls had made a huge run in the playoffs, things may have been very different. But with Rose possibly out for the 2012-13 season, the Bulls decided it wasn't worth the cost to keep such a high-priced team together. The results of those decisions might be irreversible.

(Previous rank: 3)

9. San Antonio Spurs | Future Power Rating: 683

PLAYERS MANAGEMENT MONEY MARKET DRAFT 313 (13th) 194 (1st) 95 (16th) 53 (13th) 28 (22nd)

We've written for a while now that the Spurs' best days are behind them. And every season they show they still have a lot left in the tank.

San Antonio finished tied for the best record in the NBA last season, following a 2011-12 in which they had the best record in the Western Conference. But alas, its winning ways in the regular season once again couldn't translate to a championship.

Although still productive, Tim Duncan and Manu Ginobili are on the downsides of their careers. Tony Parker is the only Spurs player in his prime. And while the team can still find good role players -- rookie Kawhi Leonard looked like the steal of the 2011 draft -- the challenge for the Spurs, at least for next season, is that they haven't added anyone who can really lead the team long term.

At some point (we're done predicting when), Duncan, Ginobili and Parker will slow down. It's unlikely a combo of Leonard, Tiago Splitter and Cory Joseph will replace them anytime soon.

We have faith in their management, which we've ranked No. 1 in all but one of the eight editions of FPR. But whether they can work their magic again once Duncan, Ginobili and Parker can't get it done anymore is a fair question.

(Previous rank: 9)

10. Boston Celtics | Future Power Rating: 672

PLAYERS MANAGEMENT MONEY MARKET DRAFT 304 (14th) 170 (4th) 100 (15th) 66 (8th) 40 (18th)

The Celtics are in a similar situation as the Spurs. Their core, with the exception of Rajon Rondo, is older. But we remain confident in Danny Ainge's ability to keep this team on track.

While we ranked their management three spots lower than San Antonio's, in many ways, the Celtics have a more promising future than the Spurs. Paul Pierce and Kevin Garnett won't be leading the charge for much longer, but the Celtics are beginning to add depth around them. In the short term, Jason Terry should be an upgrade over the older Ray Allen. In the long term, there are a number of potential bright spots, too.

Rondo, 26, will be in his prime through the next three seasons. We were impressed with Avery Bradley before an injury cut his postseason short. Jeff Green, Brandon Bass and Courtney Lee are all solid role players still younger than 30. And Boston also added Jared Sullinger in the draft. (Fab Melo might be in that picture too, someday, but he may need longer than the three-year window we look at for these rankings.)

In short, the Celtics seem to have some of the best of both worlds. They're built to compete now and they're planting the seeds for the future. While their core isn't quite up to snuff with the Spurs', and while Ainge's reputation, while strong, isn't quite the same as R.C. Buford's, the Celtics will likely continue their recent success over the next three seasons.

(Previous rank: 11)

[T21]

Thanks for posting this...No love for us as usual... but we wouldn't want it any other way!Anyway, I believe our GM has the plan for the future and, unlike many other organizations, he's making sure we're ready to make those crucial steps to finally get us over the hump...

[PSSSHHHRRR87]

So they roughly have us as the sixth best team in the East. After the Jazz got swept in the first round vs. SA and losing their starting PG, I have to question why they are fourth. I'd put Indiana at 4. I like their strategy and their HC more.

[AHF]

I think Indiana is doomed to mediocrity. I am not a fan of their approach. Who is their star? I see them as contenders for the second round with maybe a peak in the ECF if they get the right matchups. Not impressed.

Edited August 15, 2012 by AHF

[bruincoach]

I believe the pacers are a worse version of the past hawks. Good enough to make the playoffs every year but not a real contenderHibbert and west aren't athletic like al and josh. But hibbert is biggerJoe was/is better than grangerLosing collision is a BIG loss. Replacement of Augustine is a defensive liabilityPaul George can be good but reminds me of a more athletic rashard Lewis that will drop quickly at some pointHansborough is a better version of zazaJamal was a better shooter than hill but not as good at other stuffVery similar but my hawks bias makes me a believe they are a little worseNO WAY should hibbert have got the money he did