Hollinger: Not going according to plan

[HawkItus]

Wednesday, November 14, 2012

Not going according to plan

By John Hollinger

ESPN.com

The Warriors are struggling on offense and Thompson and Curry share some of the blame.

At worst, this was supposed to be an offensive juggernaut. The Warriors seemed to have shooters galore with Steph Curry, Klay Thompson and rookie Harrison Barnes. They had a versatile, mobile big man in David Lee and a post-up threat in Andrew Bogut. Maybe they weren't going to be Run TMC, but this figured to be one of the league's top 10 offenses, especially with the starting five on the court.

Right now they're 25th. And even that mark owes mostly to the brilliant play of reserve Carl Landry rather than anything the starters have done. Golden State's starting lineup has a collective offensive efficiency rating of 96.2, according to NBA.com's advanced stats tool. Bogut hasn't played much, but if we just look at the Curry-Thompson-Barnes-Lee quartet, it's even worse: a pathetic 93.7.

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Individually, all five Golden State starters have underperformed. Bogut has played only 72 minutes. He's injured again, and nobody knows when he's coming back. But at least he has a PER above the league average, which is more than the other four can say.

Barnes has the excuse that he's a rookie. His single-digit PER and general invisibility in the early going shouldn't come as a huge shock.

But the three holdovers? These guys were supposed to be the heart of the offense. Thompson had a strong finish to last season but is shooting in the 30s on 2s, 73.7 percent from the line and doesn't contribute in enough other ways to make up for it. Like Thompson, Curry is shooting 37.5 percent from the floor and has struggled as a distributor. Between the two, they're averaging 7.2 assists and 5.7 turnovers, which won't get it done as a starting backcourt.

Then there's Lee, a phantom of a defender whose offense is the only thing keeping him on the court -- at least in theory. In practice, he is shooting 42.1 percent from the floor and, like his two celebrated teammates, has a TS% in the high 40s.

As a result, Golden State's starting five takes the cake in our list of the league's top early disappointments. The Warriors somehow have survived, going 3-4 thanks to a solid defense and the outsized contributions of Landry and Jarrett Jack. But unless their starters get back to their historic performance levels, this thing will go off the rails quickly.

While the Warriors' quintet leads the way, I have plenty more to choose from. Here's a look around the league at the biggest letdowns from the first two weeks:

http://a.espncdn.com...ansparent=false Hibbert

Roy Hibbert, Pacers

Say, didn't you used to be an All-Star? Hibbert's vanishing post game has been the biggest disappointment in the wretched, stinking train wreck known as the Indiana offense this season, one that ranks 29th in efficiency after Tuesday's depressing 74-72 home loss to Toronto. (Featuring stalwarts like Jose Calderon and Andrea Bargnani, the Raptors entered the game ranked 25th in defense.)

The alleged focal point of the attack, Hibbert is averaging 8.4 points on 37.8 percent shooting. Combined with his pathetic total of 11 free throw attempts on the season, his TS% is a brutal 38.6. Most embarrassingly, he is 7-foot-2 and has made fewer than half his shots inside five feet.

http://a.espncdn.com...ansparent=false Gallinari

Danilo Gallinari, Denver

When Gallinari was a rookie with the Knicks, then-coach Mike D'Antoni said he was the best shooter he'd ever seen. While D'Antoni's talent for blowing hot air about his guys is well known, Gallo shot 44.4 percent on 3s that year. However, his percentage has gone down every year, dropping to last season's 32.8 percent.

This season? Gallinari appears to have renewed his efforts to become a needed floor-spacer for the Nuggets, trying more than seven triples a game. One problem: They aren't going in. He has made only 11 of his 50 attempts, muddling along at 22 percent and contributing to Denver's shocking offensive malaise. Not that he has been much better inside the arc, at 39.3 percent on 2s, and like all the Nuggets, he has seen his formerly high rate of free throw attempts shrivel.

http://a.espncdn.com...ansparent=false Durant

Kevin Durant, Thunder

The absence of James Harden appears to have hurt Durant more than anyone, forcing him into a playmaking role that he doesn't seem completely comfortable with. Durant has boosted his assist rates and sharply increased his rebounding, but he is averaging more than five fewer points per 40 minutes and dragged his PER down five points along the way.

That jives with his numbers from a year ago. According to NBA.com, he played roughly half his minutes with Harden and half without. In the without portion, he averaged 3.4 points per 40 minutes fewer but 0.6 assists more. Now that his entire season is "without", he is taking on that performance permanently. That's terrible news, because Durant's one-of-a-kind skill is scoring, not making skip passes for Thabo Sefolosha jumpers.

As Zach Lowe keeps pointing out, changing OKC's painfully bad starting lineup to add more scoring is one potential cure. Adding Eric Maynor to the starting group and playing small with Westbrook at the 2 could relieve some of Durant's playmaking burden and make it easier for his scoring game to shine.

http://a.espncdn.com...ansparent=false Vasquez

New Orleans point guards

Greivis Vasquez is in the league leaders in assists and made a game-winning shot to beat Utah. But that's about the only shot he's made. While Passquez has impressed with his court vision, he is 3-for-15 on 3s and an unfathomable 16-for-47 on 2s. That's left his TS% at 36.7 percent and kept his PER in single digits despite the gaudy passing stats. Throw in his suspect ability to defend the position and he's on some thin ice.

Fortunately for Vasquez, his competition for the job is Austin Rivers, who has probably been the league's worst rookie in the early going. (Well, of those who have played anyway. Royce White has this title on lockdown until further notice.). Rivers' line thus far? Ten fouls, nine turnovers, seven made baskets. It's not for lack of trying either, with 32 hoists in just four games.

http://a.espncdn.com...ansparent=false Ilyasova

Ersan Ilyasova, Milwaukee

Ilyasova's 2011-12 season seemed fluky, but nobody suspected a crash like this. He had a 20.55 PER a year ago; now it's at 4.36, an accomplishment which would blow away Lamar Odom's record for one-year decline if he keeps it up. It's not as if it's just one category that's hurting him. His performance is down across the board, with both his spot-up and off-the-dribble games suffering staggering declines. On a positive note, he is doing wonders for Ekpe Udoh's adjusted plus-minus.

The timing couldn't be worse, as the Bucks just signed him to a five-year, $40 million deal in the offseason. Just when Milwaukee finally seemed to be in a position where all the bad contracts were off its books, one wonders if Ilyasova is starting the cycle anew.

http://a.espncdn.com...ansparent=false Ginobili

Manu Ginobili, Spurs

Ginobili has battled a bad back in the early part of the season, and perhaps he shouldn't have played Tuesday night. The Spurs better hope it's just the back. Ginobili is 35 and appeared to slow down in the playoffs last season. This season, he is shooting 34.9 percent with a single-digit PER.

The passing flair is still there, but his turnovers per possession are dramatically up and he hasn't been converting consistently even inside the arc. While his 3-for-19 start on 3s offers hope in a roundabout way -- certainly he'll end up in the mid- to high-30s -- the rest of his game has been slow to come around, which is bad news for a team that probably needs Ginobili playing at an All-Star level to be in a realistic position as a title contender.

http://a.espncdn.com...ansparent=false Smith

Josh Smith, Hawks

Josh Smith, jump shooter, has taken seven 3-pointers and made one of them. Josh Smith, jump shooter, has tried 29 2s from beyond 10 feet and converted six of them. Josh Smith, jump shooter, has taken 15 free throws and made three of them. Josh Smith, jump shooter, is killing the Hawks' offense.

What's so maddening is that Josh Smith, basketball player, is otherwise extremely valuable. He sees the court, rebounds, defends, can finish at the rim and has a nice right-block post game. When not shooting jumpers, he's at 53.8 percent this season. Add in the jumpers and he's at 39.8 percent with a career-low PER. I'll ask one more time, very nicely: Ditch the jumpers, Josh.

http://a.espncdn.com...ansparent=false Evans

Tyreke Evans, Kings

In his fourth year in the NBA, Evans continues to go backward. With a wayward Kings organization that hasn't exactly wowed us with its player development program, it appears Evans has no more coherent idea of how to play offense than when he came into the league four years ago -- especially when he doesn't have the ball.

While Evans seems more engaged defensively than in previous seasons, his 38 percent shooting and 13.7 points per 40 minutes in the early going are a crushing disappointment for a Kings team that is desperate for some reliable scoring punch. Not only is his TS% a ghastly 43.9, but he is doing it with a career-low usage rate.

[Q45T]

[coachx]

Thanks for sharing. Good read.I've given up on Josh Smith changing his shot selection but I truely hope he proves all of us wrong. There has to be a microchip inserted into his brain where when Smith attempts a bad shot Drew / Ferry can hit a button sending a signal to the microchip to push out some electrical shock therapy to Josh's brain. That is all I can come up with. The last 9 years of asking nicely, screaming, and pleading for change has done very little.

Edited November 14, 2012 by coachx

[macdaddy]

The free throws are beyond horrible. Something has to give soon. Why not play Josh at center?

[maljanNBAfan]

The free throws are beyond horrible. Something has to give soon. Why not play Josh at center?

I personally LOVE what he's doing at small forward. Check this out: http://soaringdownsouth.com/2012/11/14/josh-smiths-positional-battle/ What do you guys think?

[benhillboy]

I normally don't like Hollinger, but I'm feeling his analysis more and more, although any fool could see Josh's jump shot numbers are ridiculous, except him of course. Stephen Curry playing poorly is surprising and disappointing, I love the kid. Durant can't dribble, so getting rid of arguably their best ballhandler was silly. Good read. Here's to golden state continuing their futility, although I like to see the old GT alum Jack play well. I always knew he'd work hard and overachieve to stay relevant in the league. Most players with his overall ability wouldve had a permanent home overseas.

[Kimsey]

I can live with those jumpers for the most part but the free throw % has to hover around 75 otherwise he has to be traded.

[cam1218]

Hollinger is right. When we judge Josh, it seems like we are judging two different players.Josh Smith, jump shooter, is always bad. Even if he is making his shots it is really frustrating. When he continues to take those shots even though he is missing them it's unbearable.Josh Smith, basketball player, helps the team win games in various ways. When he isn't shooting jump shots, this guy is an all-star calibre player. When he is shooting them, you take this Josh, combine with the good one and only have an average player.

Edited November 15, 2012 by cam1218

[Wretch]

The thing is...there are very few players that I would trade "good Josh" for. VERY few.On a side note...I've liked Tyreke Evans for a long time. I haven't watched him much the last couple seasons, but I wonder what's going on with his game and if Sacramento is ready to let him go....

[tonegully]

thats Mid Range Shawty for you..lol

[ag82]

Maybe he meant "shoddy mid range"

[WakaFlocka]

The thing is...there are very few players that I would trade "good Josh" for. VERY few. On a side note...I've liked Tyreke Evans for a long time. I haven't watched him much the last couple seasons, but I wonder what's going on with his game and if Sacramento is ready to let him go....

Tyreke isn't a real point guard and he's lost without the ball in his hands. He can't shoot, so that basically rules out playing SG or SF, despite his size. Not really sure what to think of him anymore...

[coachx]

I personally LOVE what he's doing at small forward. Check this out: http://soaringdownso...itional-battle/ What do you guys think?

I guess this is pure sarcasm. The article actually supports Josh Smith playing PF and the Hawks going with a small lineup. Josh will get some occaisonal starts at SF with matchups dictate. Such as playing against Bynum, Howard, or Hibbert.

Hollinger is right. When we judge Josh, it seems like we are judging two different players. Josh Smith, jump shooter, is always bad. Even if he is making his shots it is really frustrating. When he continues to take those shots even though he is missing them it's unbearable. Josh Smith, basketball player, helps the team win games in various ways. When he isn't shooting jump shots, this guy is an all-star calibre player. When he is shooting them, you take this Josh, combine with the good one and only have an average player.

They are 1 player. You get the good and the bad.

[coachx]

Hollinger is right. When we judge Josh, it seems like we are judging two different players. Josh Smith, jump shooter, is always bad. Even if he is making his shots it is really frustrating. When he continues to take those shots even though he is missing them it's unbearable. Josh Smith, basketball player, helps the team win games in various ways. When he isn't shooting jump shots, this guy is an all-star calibre player. When he is shooting them, you take this Josh, combine with the good one and only have an average player.

I don't think having a bipolar game helps his trade value.

[macdaddy]

I thought it really didn't matter whether Josh played SF or PF but this season I'm noticing the difference. I can't stand him at the 3 at all. As some one supported with stats in another thread i think we should settle in to a real rotationStarters: JT,Deshawn, Korver, Josh, Al - Williams, Zaza, ivan group 1 off the bench, Harris, Morrow, Tolliver group 2. Get those first 8 guys comfortable with their rolls and our erratic play should settle down.

[BrazilianHawk]

Thanks for sharing. Good read. I've given up on Josh Smith changing his shot selection but I truely hope he proves all of us wrong. There has to be a microchip inserted into his brain where when Smith attempts a bad shot Drew / Ferry can hit a button sending a signal to the microchip to push out some electrical shock therapy to Josh's brain. That is all I can come up with. The last 9 years of asking nicely, screaming, and pleading for change has done very little.

Brain? What are you talking about? What brain?

[DrReality]

Solution is too simple: If he shoots 3s. . . . Sit him down. Like putting a spoiled kid in tome out and watch him pout or throw a tantrum. Ferry needs to back LD on it

[AHF]

Solution is too simple: If he shoots 3s. . . . Sit him down. Like putting a spoiled kid in tome out and watch him pout or throw a tantrum. Ferry needs to back LD on it

Back LD? LD has coached Josh for years and has no intention of doing any such thing.

[Peoriabird]

If Drew continues to allow Josh Smith to shoot jump shots then Josh cannot start at power forward. His jump shots are responsible for our poor offensive rebounding number because of Korver at the 3 and someone smaller at the 2. Drew has to adjust if he cannot coach Josh Smith and keep him at small forward regardless of the match up.

[coachx]

If Drew continues to allow Josh Smith to shoot jump shots then Josh cannot start at power forward. His jump shots are responsible for our poor offensive rebounding number because of Korver at the 3 and someone smaller at the 2. Drew has to adjust if he cannot coach Josh Smith and keep him at small forward regardless of the match up.

If Josh Smith cannot shoot then why would you want him at SF where he would be standing out on the perimeter and probably shooting even more ? We are also a poor offensive rebounding team b/c our PF (Smith) is a poor offensive rebounder b/c he stands around in the perimeter so much. The strength of ZaZa's game is offensive rebounding so of course puting him into the starting lineup will help that stat but it also make Josh Smith even less efficient then he is at PF. With JJ and Crawford off the team........this squad really wants to start playing smart basketball.......that is accept for Josh Smith, of course. Watching this team fight for #7 or #8 seed, while Josh Smith, continues his bad habits, is of no interest to me. I'd rather trade him for young potential and maybe a pick, while taking a step back, but instilling smart basketball principle. Maybe we get lucky in the lottery by adding better talent through better draft picks. We know we are not getting lucky with Josh Smith as the face of the franchise. Edited November 16, 2012 by coachx