Trade scenarios abound, but is Smith worth the money he wants?

[Admin]

http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/story/_/id/8962145/nba-trade-scenarios-josh-smith

With the league returning to post-All-Star business, the Josh Smith trade whispers turned into a shout on Monday. Just a month ago, Smith was suspended for one game by theAtlanta Hawks for a practice incident that stemmed from his frustration over a losing streak. Now it seems a near-certainty that Smith will be traded by Thursday's deadline, ending his 8½-year career in Atlanta and bringing to fruition rumors that have hounded him for years.

Smith has long been one of the NBA's mercurial talents, capable of keeping a team afloat or sinking it -- sometimes in the same game. He once went an entire season without making a 3-point shot, going 0-for-7 in 2009-10. That was a good thing, as he shot better than 50 percent from the field and posted what was then a career-best PER of 21.0. This season, he's on pace to take a career-high 175 3-pointers even though he still shoots less than the league average from deep. What do you do with a guy like that?

Right now, it feels as if every team in the league is in pursuit of Smith. The Washington Wizards reportedly are willing to give up anyone but John Wall, Bradley Beal or Nene. The Brooklyn Nets may be dangling Kris Humphries and MarShon Brooks. The Phoenix Suns and Dallas Mavericks may be in play. The Milwaukee Bucks and Boston Celtics have been mentioned frequently as possible destinations in recent days. The Houston Rockets have been suggested and make a lot of sense, but may wait to pursue Smith this summer. Suffice to say, Smith should not get too specific with his travel plans in the coming days.

Hawks general manager Danny Ferry has been clearing away salary ever since he took over in Atlanta, beginning with the miraculous trick of unloading Joe Johnson's contract. If Smith is traded, Ferry potentially could add a max player to a team with Al Horford, a legit big-three talent on a playoff roster who has three years and a reasonable $12 million left on his deal. As it stands, if Ferry declined all options, failed to make qualifying offers and renounced his free agents, the only obligations on his books beyond this season would be Horford and Louis Williams. That's some serious flexibility.

It's an oversimplification to say this, but close to the truth: A team in today's NBA can't win a championship if it gives a max contract to a non-championship player. That doesn't necessarily affect a team trying to acquire Smith this week. If you can work him into your existing pay structure without destroying your rotation or chemistry, a motivated Smith would make a fabulous final piece for a title-worthy roster. Then you can let him go chase his max deal in July, and perhaps keep him around if the market doesn't yield such an arrangement.

The problem is, a number of the teams attached to Smith in the rumor mill wouldn't be acquiring him as a finishing piece -- they would be viewing him as a franchise cornerstone, around which a championship roster could be constructed. Is Smith that kind of player?

Assuming the deadline market isn't going to yield a franchise talent to take the place of Smith -- a pretty safe assumption -- Ferry will be seeking rookie contracts, draft picks and expiring deals in return. Let's take each of Smith's potential landing spots separately, because even a quick glance seemingly leaves some of these teams out of the running:

Milwaukee Bucks Milwaukee could package the expiring deals of Samuel Dalembert and Beno Udrih to make a trade work cap-wise. As for a sweetener, the Bucks have a surplus of athletic young bigs in John Henson, Larry Sanders and Ekpe Udoh, as well as their full collection of future first-rounders. You have to assume that Milwaukee would prefer to swap Monta Ellis for Smith, but Ferry should be concerned about Ellis' player option for 2013-14. The big question here: Would Smith even consider re-signing with the Bucks during the summer?

Boston Celtics

Boston is a tough team to read right now. Danny Ainge has a hard-capped payroll, which will prevent him from augmenting his veteran roster with a contract like Smith's. To make that move would be to blow up the Kevin Garnett-Paul Pierce core because Ferry isn't likely to take back the multiyear deals belonging to Jason Terry, Jeff Green, Courtney Lee or any combination thereof. Even if Ainge wanted to be bold and dangle Rajon Rondo for Smith, he'd probably have to clear a contract from an already-depleted roster to stay under the hard cap. A three-team scenario is always a possibility but again, it would involve blowing up the Garnett-Pierce tandem.

Dallas Mavericks

The Mavericks certainly have plenty of expiring contracts to package for Smith. However, their first-round pick is in slot-protection purgatory because of last year's Lamar Odom trade. It's also not clear whether Dallas has the right young players to swing a trade. If it was just a matter of opening up Smith's salary slot, Ferry could just wait till the summer and renounce him.

Brooklyn Nets

Forget the Brooks-Humphries scenario. Humphries is on the books for $12 million next season, and his acquisition would put a serious crimp in Ferry's grand plan. That means Brooklyn would have to get a third team involved, and that team would have to be willing to take on Humphries. That won't be easy to find.

Houston Rockets

On the court, no team in the league would be a better fit for Smith. Can you imagine his elite athleticism fitting into an offensive lineup alongside James Harden, Jeremy Lin and Chandler Parsons, not to mention a defensive lineup with Smith backed up by Omer Asik's elite rim protection? The Rockets would have to put together a sizable package of young players, but because they are under the cap, it wouldn't have to add up to Smith's $13.2 million salary figure. Still, it might seem hardly worth it now, when they'll have to space to sign Smith outright this summer.

Phoenix Suns

Um, no. The Suns' roster is clogged by middling, multiyear contracts -- the kind you just don't give out en masse. Marcin Gortat might be interesting to Ferry, and Phoenix does have a surplus of future draft picks, as well as a pair of rookie contracts in Kendall Marshall and Markieff Morris. All of those assets packaged together might work for Ferry, but would it for the Suns?

Washington Wizards

No Wall or Beal? No expiring deals of any significant value? No Smith for you.

So while it seems certain Smith will be moved this week, it's also pretty easy to poke holes in just about any scenario out there. Some team will have to surprise us. That team also will have to make the key decision of whether Smith is a true max player. His starting salary would be about $16.4 million the first year, then increase by 7.5 percent annually for the four subsequent seasons. The final year would be worth about $21.9 million and the total deal about $95.2 million. Ouch.

Still, you can bet that some team is going to give Smith that money. That fact is driven more by economics than relative on-court value, by which only a handful of players are legitimately worth championship-player, cornerstone-type money.

Smith is easily one of the 30 best players in the league. Since the time he signed that previous contract with Atlanta 4½ years ago, he's 12th in the league in WARP. Nevertheless, the Hawks have topped out at 53 wins during that time and have not advanced beyond the second round of the postseason. Do you credit Smith for the Hawks' success, or penalize him because they haven't done better? It's a key question to ask.

An interesting way to frame it is to look at players who have had similar seasons at a similar age to the one Smith is having this season. Among the names that top his list of comps are guys like Chris Webber, Rasheed Wallace and Scottie Pippen. There are also guys like Shareef Abdur-Rahim and Al Harrington high up on the list. The range of possibilities is wide.

At 27, Smith has the talent and remaining upside to convince an eager team to give him the max deal he's long coveted. And as long as that team has the culture and payroll structure to surround him with the right pieces, it might even work out. In the right situation, Smith could be gold, but it will be up to each of the league's decision-makers to determine if their situation is the right one for Smith. One way or another, it will be a franchise-changing decision.

[drzachary]

A simple "no" will suffice.

[drzachary]

And as for why everyone seemingly wants Josh, allow me to quote David Falk:

“You want to know the reason why just nine teams have won an NBA title in 40 years?

Because if both of them came out today, 99 percent of all general managers wouldstill take John Wall instead of Kyrie Irving. They’d take the athleteover the ballplayer. And they’d be wrong.”"

[Admin]

And as for why everyone seemingly wants Josh, allow me to quote David Falk:

“You want to know the reason why just nine teams have won an NBA title in 40 years?

Because if both of them came out today, 99 percent of all general managers wouldstill take John Wall instead of Kyrie Irving. They’d take the athleteover the ballplayer. And they’d be wrong.”"

David Falk has REALLY dogged John Wall lately with some of his comments. I surely don't agree that many GMs would take Wall over Irving either, nor do I believe that Wall has hit the Wall as far as his potential goes. That kid has to get out of Washington soon though or it's going to kill his development.

[drzachary]

And laughable comparisons to Wallace, Pippen and Webber:

NBA seasons age 26 / 27Smith .139 / .076 WS/48Webber .179 / .186 WS/48Wallace .180 / .158 WS/48Pippen .192 / .132 WS/48

Nowhere close.

David Falk has REALLY dogged John Wall lately with some of his comments. I surely don't agree that many GMs would take Wall over Irving either, nor do I believe that Wall has hit the Wall as far as his potential goes. That kid has to get out of Washington soon though or it's going to kill his development.

The greater point is that athleticism is overvalued and doesn't always translate to wins.

[Admin]

And laughable comparisons to Wallace, Pippen and Webber:

NBA seasons age 26 / 27Smith .139 / .076 WS/48Webber .179 / .186 WS/48Wallace .180 / .158 WS/48Pippen .192 / .132 WS/48

Nowhere close.

The greater point is that athleticism is overvalued and doesn't always translate to wins.

I agree with the point being made and the Spurs are a prime example of that as they're nowhere near what you'd call "athletes" by modern NBA standards, and yet they have been able to play one of the faster paces with a lot of success even with advancing age.

[PSSSHHHRRR87]

I agree with the point being made and the Spurs are a prime example of that as they're nowhere near what you'd call "athletes" by modern NBA standards, and yet they have been able to play one of the faster paces with a lot of success even with advancing age.

Coaching and successful drafts are why the Spurs are a great team. Everybody from Robinson, Splitter, and Duncan to Parker, Lenard, and Ginoboli.... One thing the Spurs haven't done is try to get better through FA and trades. I believe the biggest FA signing they have had in the past 15 years is Robert Horry, yet they have won 4 championship in that time frame. The Spurs should be an example to every small/middle market team.

[benhillboy]

95 mil for a no-time All-Star? Jesus. If he gets that he should divorce his wife, marry his agent, and make his new GM his best man.

Edited February 20, 2013 by benhillboy

[coachx]

David Falk has REALLY dogged John Wall lately with some of his comments. I surely don't agree that many GMs would take Wall over Irving either, nor do I believe that Wall has hit the Wall as far as his potential goes. That kid has to get out of Washington soon though or it's going to kill his development.

At the time of the draft Irving had serious injury concerns.

[coachx]

Coaching and successful drafts are why the Spurs are a great team. Everybody from Robinson, Splitter, and Duncan to Parker, Lenard, and Ginoboli.... One thing the Spurs haven't done is try to get better through FA and trades. I believe the biggest FA signing they have had in the past 15 years is Robert Horry, yet they have won 4 championship in that time frame. The Spurs should be an example to every small/middle market team.

Robinson and Duncan were both pure luck by winning the draft lottery. They were both the no brainer 1st picks in their respective drafts.Drafting Parker and Ginobli late was genius but they won 1 championship without them. Had guys like Avery Johnson and Mario Ellie in the backcourt with Sean Elliot...........another #1 overall pick at SF.Give any team three #1 overall picks........2 years with the likes of Duncan and Robinson and they better come out smelling like a rose. Edited February 20, 2013 by coachx

[itsslomotionbaby]

4 yrs.at 17 per 56 million or 5 yr. at 15 per for 75 million i would offer josh.

[Admin]

4 yrs.at 17 per 56 million or 5 yr. at 15 per for 75 million i would offer josh.

First that's way too much money for a flawed player and second you're not calculating his annual raises that he's directory ask for. He's just not worth that much more than Al and he's not worth that close to what LeBron makes.

[Guest]

Man, why did knucklehead Smoove screw us and publicly say he wanted a max offer ...dang it ...that prolly scared about 15 teams away lol

[Bahamut]

David Falk has REALLY dogged John Wall lately with some of his comments. I surely don't agree that many GMs would take Wall over Irving either, nor do I believe that Wall has hit the Wall as far as his potential goes. That kid has to get out of Washington soon though or it's going to kill his development.

This sounds familiar...