Josh's Market: Now and This Summer (Some Hope)

[AHF]

Today the fact that we could only get a crap package of negative value players and a mid-first round pick in a weak draft from Milwaukee (reportedly Udoh, Udrih and Mbah and a protected first round pick) is depressing because it signals the market for Josh is weak. If that is true that is actually a good thing and here is why.

If the market for Josh is strong then he will be able to get what he wants from one of several teams with cap room and can simply walk to that next high salary leaving us with nothing. In his best case scenario, a max offer from a team like the Rockets is the same as he could get in a S&T so there isn't much incentive to do a S&T. In this scenario (teams wanting to give him the max or some high $$ amount), you would expect that we would have gotten some legit offers and that didn't happen.

The fact that junk offers were all that we saw indicates the market may be weaker for Josh this summer. If Josh can't get what he wants from one of the teams with cap room, that opens up interest from teams that don't have the cap space. Those teams will be more desperate to pay more because they have no flexibility to land impact FA's and so (all things being equal) should be willing to offer Josh more than the cap room teams. If that is the case, it opens the door to a sign and trade for Josh that brings us back some value (because those teams can't touch him without us playing ball). Teams will also have the security in that scenario of trading for him knowing they are getting him for multiple years and not as a rental.

A weak free agent market also opens up the possibility that we could get Josh on a much more palatable contract if there is interest in him coming back from Ferry and Josh.

So for people who wanted Josh gone today, this is bad news. For our ability to get good terms over the summer, however, this weak trade market for Josh holds some hope for the Hawks if it correlates to a weak free agent market for Josh.

[tonegully]

Josh isn't getting the max, let him test the market

[MaceCase]

Some sad counters:

I believe his contract status played a role in the offers being made for him. Practically every team mentioned would have the capability to sign him in the summer so perhaps they just made the smart decision of waiting rather than offering up assets now.

After Dwight and Paul it is a weak free agent market which means that secondary and tertiary players like Josh will stand to benefit from an overpay for their services.

The most dependant issue is Josh himself. The market could *hypothetically* say that he's an MLE player and the Hawks could offer above that but he still decide to take a MLE offer elswhere because of past transgressions with the front office and avoid a SnT discussion.

Either way, it's become clear that Ferry would be just fine with capspace and the ability to reshape the franchise however he so sees fit.

[AHF]

Some sad counters:

I believe his contract status played a role in the offers being made for him. Practically every team mentioned would have the capability to sign him in the summer so perhaps they just made the smart decision of waiting rather than offering up assets now.

After Dwight and Paul it is a weak free agent market which means that secondary and tertiary players like Josh will stand to benefit from an overpay for their services.

The most dependant issue is Josh himself. The market could *hypothetically* say that he's an MLE player and the Hawks could offer above that but he still decide to take a MLE offer elswhere because of past transgressions with the front office and avoid a SnT discussion.

Either way, it's become clear that Ferry would be just fine with capspace and the ability to reshape the franchise however he so sees fit.

I don't disagree with any of this but what this says is that no one wants him badly. At worst, they are all willing to offer big dollars in the summer but aren't willing to give up a pick and expiring contracts to get him in hand now. At best, they are not willing to offer the max and there will be the possibility that a capped out team is willing to pay him what he wants but no one on the market is. That is our only hope for getting any value out of a S&T (IMO) and today's weak market is a good sign that this is very possible.

It is no guarantee that the secondary market doesn't take off but it may be that teams are ready to try to sign him only for a number well under the max with a number of similar tier PFs on the secondary market with Josh, Al Jefferson and Paul Millsap to start with. If a capped team is willing to pay substantially more, that is our only hope for a S&T that returns anything interesting.

At this point if Josh is going to sign with the Rockets, Dallas, etc. then he is already lost to us without any real return (unless you are talking about Dallas clearing space for Josh and Dwight or something like that).

[Guest]

Today the fact that we could only get a crap package of negative value players and a mid-first round pick in a weak draft from Milwaukee (reportedly Udoh, Udrih and Mbah and a protected first round pick) is depressing because it signals the market for Josh is weak. If that is true that is actually a good thing and here is why.

If the market for Josh is strong then he will be able to get what he wants from one of several teams with cap room and can simply walk to that next high salary leaving us with nothing. In his best case scenario, a max offer from a team like the Rockets is the same as he could get in a S&T so there isn't much incentive to do a S&T. In this scenario (teams wanting to give him the max or some high $$ amount), you would expect that we would have gotten some legit offers and that didn't happen.

The fact that junk offers were all that we saw indicates the market may be weaker for Josh this summer. If Josh can't get what he wants from one of the teams with cap room, that opens up interest from teams that don't have the cap space. Those teams will be more desperate to pay more because they have no flexibility to land impact FA's and so (all things being equal) should be willing to offer Josh more than the cap room teams. If that is the case, it opens the door to a sign and trade for Josh that brings us back some value (because those teams can't touch him without us playing ball). Teams will also have the security in that scenario of trading for him knowing they are getting him for multiple years and not as a rental.

A weak free agent market also opens up the possibility that we could get Josh on a much more palatable contract if there is interest in him coming back from Ferry and Josh.

So for people who wanted Josh gone today, this is bad news. For our ability to get good terms over the summer, however, this weak trade market for Josh holds some hope for the Hawks if it correlates to a weak free agent market for Josh.

You have to account for Josh's FA status in factoring the crap offers Ferry got. Who wants to give up anything of value for the possibilityof him walking.

[AHF]

You have to account for Josh's FA status in factoring the crap offers Ferry got. Who wants to give up anything of value for the possibilityof him walking.

Agreed but that means you aren't willing to pay the max because he isn't walking from a max offer. Then you still have the higher raises and more years advantage with his bird rights and you could come to an agreement with him (informal) to resign before you make the trade. On top of that, if you are really ready to give this guy a multi-year deal at high dollars in the offseason there is some real value to seeing him for a few months on and off the court and deciding do you really want to invest in this guy (or how much).

No one was willing to go as far as giving us expiring contracts and a single young asset/pick for any of those advantages. That is a low threshold to meet even factoring in the FA status.

It gives me some hope that there may be an under the cap/over the cap discrepancy as far as what people are willing to pay.

[Guest]

Agreed but that means you aren't willing to pay the max because he isn't walking from a max offer. Then you still have the higher raises and more years advantage with his bird rights and you could come to an agreement with him (informal) to resign before you make the trade. On top of that, if you are really ready to give this guy a multi-year deal at high dollars in the offseason there is some real value to seeing him for a few months on and off the court and deciding do you really want to invest in this guy (or how much).

No one was willing to go as far as giving us expiring contracts and a single young asset/pick for any of those advantages. That is a low threshold to meet even factoring in the FA status.

It gives me some hope that there may be an under the cap/over the cap discrepancy as far as what people are willing to pay.

No max for Josh, please Ferry. If Ferry can sell him on what he is building and sign him to a reasonable deal, he can always turn around and trade him. A signed Josh has more value to teams. It would be similar to what Denver did with Nene.

[AHF]

No max for Josh, please Ferry. If Ferry can sell him on what he is building and sign him to a reasonable deal, he can always turn around and trade him. A signed Josh has more value to teams. It would be similar to what Denver did with Nene.

No max for us. If a capped out team wants Josh for the max or some higher dollar figure (higher than Ferry will pay), they have to pay us to make that happen. If Josh is going to be signed to a reasonable deal, then we take our shot at having that happen in Atlanta (with the option to later flip him ala Nene).

Edited February 22, 2013 by AHF

[TheFuzz]

And if he really cares about winning more than anything, we can send him to a team under $3M over tax in a sign and trade (SA, OKC, perhaps Houston, Denver or Indiana) to pick something up.

Or we resign him to a reasonable deal.

Or he walks and we use the capspace on something else.

I don't understand why everyone is so gloomy...

[DrReality]

It only takes one team to throw out a huge bid and some team who are desperate could throw a wrench into it. I think Josh's attitude after gooing through this ordeal at the deadline will be a telling factor. If he wants to get out of town or not.

[NineOhTheRino]

If Milwaukee can land Josh Smith without giving up Jennings or SANDERS!, that would be pretty intriguing. I might not be the biggest Josh Smith fan on the planet (he's one of those guys who scares you when he's on the other team but scares you even more when he's on your own team), but I'm still one of the few who agrees with Smith that he's a max player. I had him as a second-team All-NBA forward last year. He stumbled a little this season, mainly because they didn't take care of him and he's a mild headache (and you have to take care of mild headaches before they become pounding migraines). But if you're looking at this from his point of view, the following guys are "max" players right now (or damned close): Deron Williams, Rudy Gay, Pau Gasol, Eric Gordon, Roy Hibbert, Joe Johnson, Amar'e Stoudemire, David Lee, Paul Pierce, Andrew Bynum, Carlos Boozer, Andre Iguodala.

Edited February 22, 2013 by NineOhTheRino

[drzachary]

Simmons is an idiot. He thinks Jordan Crawford is a good pickup, so everything else he says needs to be viewers through that same lens of incompetence.

[NineOhTheRino]

Simmons is an idiot. He thinks Jordan Crawford is a good pickup, so everything else he says needs to be viewers through that same lens of incompetence.

He gets a pass on Crawford. Crawford falls under his "one irrational confidence guy per team" rule.

[MaceCase]

That list of players is not a good argument for maxing a guy. Besides David Lee they all seem to of taken a dive in production but then I'm sure Josh would counter my argument with "I'm Josh Smith", fix his tie and saunter away.

[macdaddy]

Hawk for life.

[AHF]

That list of players is not a good argument for maxing a guy. Besides David Lee they all seem to of taken a dive in production but then I'm sure Josh would counter my argument with "I'm Josh Smith", fix his tie and saunter away.

Not a good argument for maxing the guy but a decent argument for a GM being willing to do it. Simmons later on goes on to say that he personally wouldn't max Josh but that he thinks someone will.

Atlanta now needs to hope that the someone who will max Josh is a team that lacks the cap room to do it on its own.

[coachx]

No max for us. If a capped out team wants Josh for the max or some higher dollar figure (higher than Ferry will pay), they have to pay us to make that happen. If Josh is going to be signed to a reasonable deal, then we take our shot at having that happen in Atlanta (with the option to later flip him ala Nene).

Capped out teams are not going to pay a 300% tax rate to go over the luxury tax for Josh Smith in a sign and trade.

They may pay it for a 5 or 6 time allstar but not for a no time allstar.

[coachx]

Not a good argument for maxing the guy but a decent argument for a GM being willing to do it. Simmons later on goes on to say that he personally wouldn't max Josh but that he thinks someone will.

Atlanta now needs to hope that the someone who will max Josh is a team that lacks the cap room to do it on its own.

Those contracts ( Lee, McGee, and Wallace) were signed under a different CBA that only had a 100% luxury tax rate.........now its a 300% luxury tax rate moving foward.

Those comparisons are useless b/c we are living in a different world under a different luxury tax that is 3 X stiffer then it used to be.

Edited February 22, 2013 by coachx

[Jody23]

Capped out teams are not going to pay a 300% tax rate to go over the luxury tax for Josh Smith in a sign and trade. They may pay it for a 5 or 6 time allstar but not for a no time allstar.

Which is why if the do decide to try and re-sign him, that he gets basically the same deal Horford got.

[AHF]

Capped out teams are not going to pay a 300% tax rate to go over the luxury tax for Josh Smith in a sign and trade.

They may pay it for a 5 or 6 time allstar but not for a no time allstar.

They wouldn't go over the luxury tax. They would be sending us back balancing salary - ideally expiring salary along with picks and/or young players.

Here is a hypothetical trade for next year:

Danny Granger + Tyler Hansborough + Picks for Maxed Josh

This trade = no luxury tax for Indy and gives Atlanta expiring salary plus picks

Indy has a cap number for next year on the books of roughly $50M and this deal leaves them under the cap.