Is our recent skid a bad thing?

[Dragitoff]

With the Hawks recent slip over the past 10 days or so, they've dropped from 4th to a tie for 7th. At face value, that's a bad thing. 4th gets you home-court advantage in the 1st round, but it also gets you a virtual guarantee to face the Heat in the 2nd round should you advance. If the playoffs started today, I believe the matchups would be:

Heat vs. Bucks

Knicks vs. Hawks

Pacers vs. Celtics

Nets vs. Bulls

Here's the way I see it.......

Heat will easily eliminate the Bucks, most likely in a sweep

Nets and Bulls will be a tough matchup, but I think the Nets can win that series in 6 or 7

Pacers and Celtics both thrive off defense. Pacers may be the best all around team in the East outside the Heat, but I think the Celtics could surprise everyone and upset the Pacers. That series is a draw IMO.

Here's the good stuff. I think the Knicks are beatable, especially if they don't defend. Al will draw the only lost post defender Knicks have (Chandler) away from the basket and give us easy buckets. Of course, Melo is a tough guard regardless who we play, but if he's at the 4, I like Josh guarding him and our odds overall against them. Deshawn and Dahntay will have to chase JR Smith off the perimeter while he's in the game. I like our chances.

So, the 2nd round matchups now look like:

Heat vs. Nets

Hawks vs. Celtics/Pacers (flip a coin there)

Heat are a great team, but they struggle with dominant post players. If the Nets start clicking right and feed Brook in the post, they could pose a formidable foe for the Heat. They haven't been that in the head-to-head matchups so far, but it's possible they upset the defending champs. Deron can also win the PG matchups and Joe is a capable defender against DWade as is Wallace on LeBron. It could be a blowout series for the Heat or it could be a tough one. On paper, both teams match up fairly well.

The Hawks and Celtics have such history together as of late. Maybe enough that Stern will let the refs give some calls to each team to "assist" this series to happen. It'll never happen that way, but who knows? If the Hawks can sneak past either the C's or the Pacers, they'd now have an opportunity to go head to head with the winner of the Nets/Heat series in the conference finals in a year that wasn't supposed to be a contending year.

Edited March 11, 2013 by Dragitoff

[macdaddy]

I feel like we will cave under the pressure at MSG. We can't stop Melo, i think Kidd will pick us apart, and Chandler will keep us jump shooting.

But you are right, maybe we have as good a chance against the Knicks as anyone. I thought the Nets would be our best matchup until the latest debacle. There are three groups of East playoff teams:

Group 1: Heat

Group 2: almost everyone else

Group 3: the bucks

At this point though i'm just hoping we aren't sliding to group 3.

[frosgrim]

I think we can beat the Knicks but Melo scares me. We could easily loose in 6 or win in 6.The real key is how the guys handle the sphincter moments. So far this season they haven't Sent from my SAMSUNG-SGH-I997 using Tapatalk 2

Edited March 11, 2013 by frosgrim

[DocWilkins]

I don't realistically like our chances against anyone the way we are playing currently. We just don't have that go to player in the closing minutes of a tight ballgame. Josh has proven he is not that player and Teague turns it over way too much. Horford is great but he can not create off the dribble and in the playoffs you have to have that lead dog...The Hawks are looking at another first round exit this year...

[PSSSHHHRRR87]

I really don't believe anyone here realistically expects a championship this year, so I believe being the 6th or 7th seed isn't a bad thing. We'll end up with Knicks/Pacers/Nets in the first two rounds. We could very well have a good chance to get to the ECF vs. the Heat. We can beat any team but the Heat in a seven-game series. What is unrealistic is to think that the Hawks will miss the playoffs, so we might as well put ourselves in good position to do the best we can which is a 2, 3, 6, or 7 seed.

[BrazilianHawk]

We lose in 5 no matter the seeding. Anyone who thinks we can advance to the 2nd round playing like this is delusional.

Plus, I doubt we even hold onto that 7th seed. Fear the deer.

[Bahamut]

so we might as well put ourselves in good position to do the best we can which is a 2, 3, 6, or 7 seed.

WOW!

[benhillboy]

Seeing how we are likely to lose two more, it's pretty bad. It's impossible to predict who our best and worst matchups are when Air Shawty is the most unpredictable high-usage player in the league and Teague is feast or famine. With Josh at his best, we can beat Indy. At his worst, Milwaukee would trash us. New York (give Woody his props) and Miami are out of the question. Chicago and Boston are simply too well-coached. After the poor effort against Brooklyn, I'm on the fence about that one. We made Gerald Wallace look like he isn't having an awful season and Blatche looked like Al. If we can possibly beat LA at the Fac, I'd be much more encouraged going forward, but our biggest test will be facing a hungry Ellis and Jennings 3 times before the season ends. How well we guard the three point line and minimize turnovers from here on out will show how serious the team is to make some noise this year, because they've been sleepwalking in those areas as of late.

[PSSSHHHRRR87]

so we might as well put ourselves in good position to do the best we can which is a 2, 3, 6, or 7 seed.<br /> <br />WOW!

<br /><br />I was just stating that those seeds are our best chance to get to the ECF vs. the Heat due to how the NBA playoff system works... Never said that I thought that the Hawks would get a 2 or 3 seed and I realize that getting out of the first round will be difficult with only half of a team at this point. Seems the whole team outside of our Baby 3 is dealing with some sort of injury, but don't be too surprised if the Hawks stretch the first round to 6-7 games...

[Bahamut]

<br /><br />I was just stating that those seeds are our best chance to get to the ECF vs. the Heat due to how the NBA playoff system works... Never said that I thought that the Hawks would get a 2 or 3 seed and I realize that getting out of the first round will be difficult with only half of a team at this point. Seems the whole team outside of our Baby 3 is dealing with some sort of injury, but don't be too surprised if the Hawks stretch the first round to 6-7 games...

Def'ly agree with that.

[Dragitoff]

Of course, a #7 seed also gives us a better pick too. Just saying, if we are truly playing for next season. I'd rather our chances against Indy, New York, or Boston in the second round should we make it there over Miami as a guaranteed opponent.

[PSSSHHHRRR87]

Honestly, the best thing that could happen is that we end up as a 7th seed, beat the Knicks in the first round, and the Rockets get swept as an 8th seed. That way it gives us a good pick in the draft AND it shows potential FA that we are a competitive team this offseason. Sign a major FA (Dwight), draft talent in the first round (Porter and McCollum), resign Teague and Korver, and build the rest of the bench with veterans.

[yungsta]

With our low IQ, the way we give away games in crunch time and choke under pressure,and our lack of effort we will have difficulty beating ANY eastern conference team in the playoffs.

[macdaddy]

i don't know though. I just can't see us beating the Knicks. Just looking at their basic stats. They are 6 games ahead of us, their points against are better their ours and their point differential is much better. I know this doesn't tell the whole story but it sure looks like they've seperated from the pack of also rans (us, bkn, chicago, celts)

We are stumbling to the end here without Lou Williams, without Zaza. Counting on Petro and Deshawn to log quality minutes. Realistically getting out of the first round is going to be hard.

[Dragitoff]

i don't know though. I just can't see us beating the Knicks. Just looking at their basic stats. They are 6 games ahead of us, their points against are better their ours and their point differential is much better. I know this doesn't tell the whole story but it sure looks like they've seperated from the pack of also rans (us, bkn, chicago, celts)

We are stumbling to the end here without Lou Williams, without Zaza. Counting on Petro and Deshawn to log quality minutes. Realistically getting out of the first round is going to be hard.

That's true how the team is playing now, but we've had stretches where we clicked and played well collectively. The playoffs is all about getting hot at just the right moment. The point I was trying to make when starting the thread was wouldn't we have a better chance playing the Knicks or Pacers in the 1st round and facing either one of those clubs in the 2nd round rather than the Heat IF the team got on one of those hot streaks.

As much as Barry used to rip us pre-DF, he was very complimenting Friday night making a statement that I think is true about this team. I'm paraphrasing, but he basically said we may not have a go-to superstar and we may not WOW you on a nightly basis, but the Hawks fight and are good enough and have enough talent to stay in almost every game. We've seen that time and time again. Granted, I'd rather see them play well from the start and not have to come back so often, but they at least have the ability because of tempo, shooters, and defense to go through stretches of major outscoring of their opponents.

[Makaveli96]

I doubt we'll beat any playoff caliber team playing like this.

[thecampster]

I was thinking something similar the other day. 7th seed is 16 or 17th pick depending on conference. right now Houston and Atlanta could both end up the 7th's 8th seed meaning 2 picks 14-17. That is a nice start to the off season where flexibility is key. It gives you these low priced, high value trading chips.

Scott, Jenkins, 2 first round picks, Teague, Williams, and multiple sign/trade deals. That's much better value than we've been able to offer teams in the recent past.

Of course, a #7 seed also gives us a better pick too. Just saying, if we are truly playing for next season. I'd rather our chances against Indy, New York, or Boston in the second round should we make it there over Miami as a guaranteed opponent.

[MrNique]

I'm taking this season in stride too, and i dont think falling to 7th is that big of a deal n the long run. BUT I'll be bummed if we end up in the 8th spot. Against anyone else would be at least watchable even though we know we aren't a true contender. Watching us get blown out by the Heat would just be depressing. I really don't like how the schedule is shaking for this team, as we could be 8th by the end of the Laker game if it is a L. That L to Phoenix is really stinging.

[coachx]

As I've said before.........I would rather get picks #16 & #17 in the draft then have a token 2nd round playoff appearance only to lose 5 or 6 draft slots.

The longterm success of this franchise is more dependent on hitting something in this draft then a token 2nd round playoff apearance.

I would also rather have the #7 seed then the #4 seed when the difference will probably only be a game or two..........but the difference in 4 or 5 draft pick spots.