Stat du Jour: Sharing is Caring!

[lethalweapon3]

Larry Drew recently suggested that his team has struggled to establish an identity. But there’s at least one simple statistic that helps to shape the Atlanta Hawks’ identity, whenever they choose to embrace it. It’s a stat that makes this particular team stand out above most other NBA teams, and above all prior seasons. And to his credit, Drew himself appears to have his fingerprints all over it.

In the 42 seasons since the franchise was shifted to the Eastern Conference, the Atlanta Hawks have never led this conference in assists per game (APG) for a season. That statement should be qualified: Richie Guerin’s Hawks led the seven-team Western Conference (then called the Western Division) in its inaugural season in Atlanta in 1968-69, and then finished second among those teams in 1969-1970. Each team reached the Western Division Finals, the last occasions this franchise was that close to the NBA Finals.

Ever since then, with the conference expanding to 15 teams today, 13 other NBA franchises have boasted a team that has out-assisted its Eastern opponents, including the Rockets (twice) and the Spurs (thrice) when those teams were in the East in the 1970s. The Charlotte Hornets didn’t exist until the late 1980s and have led the Eastern Conference in APG on three occasions. Same with Orlando, and they’ve done it twice, as has Toronto, who joined in the mid-1990s. Helmed by Coach Doc Rivers, a former Hawk, and assisted by former Hawks Armond Hill and Tyronn Lue, the Boston Celtics have led the conference in each of the last four seasons. That’s something the Celts have achieved in a total of 12 seasons since 1970.

Meanwhile, throughout the Atlanta Hawks’ not-quite-illustrious history, most of its ball handlers have been getting their Fleetwood Mac on, insisting you can go your own way.

In those 37 seasons between 1970-71 and 2006-2007, Atlanta has finished in the top-half of the NBA for APG exactly three times, consecutive seasons from 1991-92 (8^th out of 27 teams) through 1993-94 (12^th out of 27). Not only that, they’ve only finished in the top-half of their own Eastern Conference for APG four times in those 37 years -- 1986-87 (4^th out of 11 teams) and 1987-88 (5^th out of 11) with Rivers and Spud Webb setting up the offense; 1991-92 (6^th out of 14 teams) with Rumeal Robinson; and 1993-94 (5^th out of 14) with Mookie Blaylock, the season of the Hawks’ last division title.

Over that same timeframe, Atlanta has managed to finish not just in the bottom-half, but DEAD LAST, in the NBA four times, and dead last in the conference seven times. Included among those bottom-dwelling years was the strike-shortened 1998-99 season, when the Hawks’ 15.6 APG was the lowest by any NBA team in the shot-clock era (since 1954-55). Lenny Wilkens’ sleepy squad was trounced by the Knicks in the conference semifinals, and the Hawks would not sniff the postseason again for nine years.

Since 1970, the Atlanta Hawks have never finished first in APG. Until now.

Emerging from the doldrums of perpetual futility, the Hawks finished seventh out of 15 Eastern Conference teams (12^th in the NBA) for APG in 2007-08, Drew’s fourth season here as an assistant under Mike Woodson. Spearheaded by trade-deadline acquisition Mike Bibby, 2008 was the first time since Blaylock neared ten assists per game bringing the ball up in 1994 that the Hawks were perched in the upper half of their own conference for assists. Perhaps not coincidentally, the team also earned their first of six consecutive NBA playoff appearances.

After a brief blip the next season (23^rd in NBA and 11^th in the East in 2008-09), over the last four seasons the Hawks have finished no worse than 12^th in the NBA for APG. They ranked fourth in the Eastern Conference for APG in Woodson’s final season as head coach, and fourth in each of the previous two seasons under Drew.

With Bibby a distant memory, last season’s edition of the Hawks finished in the top ten of the NBA for APG (8^th) for the first time since 1991-92. Now, the Hawks are primed to end 2012-13 atop the East in APG for the first time ever. Their 24.5 APG is second only to GM Danny Ferry’s last employer, the San Antonio Spurs (25.1 APG). The next highest Eastern teams, the Celtics and the Chicago Bulls (22.9 APG), are presently tied for 7^th in the league. The loss of Rajon Rondo and Derrick Rose, respectively, for this season has lessened the competitiveness for this top statistical spot.

The APG stat underlies a team-approach to passing that represents LD’s offensive model well. A point guard for 10 NBA seasons himself, Drew relies on lead guards that can drive and draw defenders and then get the ball either to finishers in the paint (63.5% at-rim FG%, 3^rd in NBA) or to snipers along the perimeter (26.8% of points from threes, 3^rd in NBA; Kyle Korver 2^nd in NBA in 3-point FG%). Jeff Teague’s 7.1 APG are the most by a Hawk since Jason Terry’s 7.4 APG in 2002-03. He’s often flanked in the starting lineup by a former All-Star point guard in Devin Harris, himself a Top-50 player in career assist percentage.

Drew’s offense, and his predecessor’s, has also been dependent on wing players and forwards who can drop some dimes as well as score. Previously deployed by Woodson to play point guard upon his free agent arrival, Joe Johnson led the Hawks in APG for three straight seasons as a swingman. Josh Smith’s 4.3 APG this season represents a career-high as he gets more minutes at the small forward spot than last year. Smith and Al Horford are a productive frontcourt passing tandem – the only frontcourt pair in the league each averaging more than 3.0 APG. Players are constantly looking out for each other on fast breaks (17.7% of points from fast breaks; 2^nd in NBA), especially for those extra kickouts for threes.

Altogether, the Hawks rank #1 in the NBA on the percentage of baskets assisted (65.4% of FG made). I’d go ahead and risk a guess that it’s the first time ever, if that ranking holds. This is not merely a departure from the years of Iso-Joe, where the Hawks still generally finished top-ten in assist percentage. This transcends anything Atlanta Hawks fans have been accustomed to over the course of four decades.

By relying more on the lead guards than the wings to produce the offense, Atlanta’s coaching staff is establishing an imprint of a team that strives to find players in their strongest positions to score and rewards them with the ball when they get there. Drew’s effectiveness in this regard would be more apparent if certain players, specifically Smith, were consistently guided to their stronger offensive locations. How well they play to their strength will be a crucial factor in determining how long they will last in the postseason. The Eastern Conference assists leader has made the playoffs in 17 of the last 20 seasons (and each of the last 14, including this season), reached the conference semifinals in 27 of the previous 45 seasons (6 of the last 7), and reached the conference finals in 18 of those 27 seasons (including 2 of the past 3).

With so many potentially moving parts this summer, including Drew and Teague, it remains to be seen if this high-volume APG will remain the key component in the DNA of future Atlanta Hawks rosters. However, having reached new heights in APG, selfless and effective team passing may be at the core of the offensive approach Ferry and this organization hope to instill in their long-term endeavors to build a true championship contender.

(Data coming in latter post)

~lw3

[macdaddy]

Great article. Its not just superior passing and offensive design at work though. Having guys that can shoot consistently really helps. Korver, Devin, Lou, Deshawn, Tolliver, JJ, Scott are all good shooters that we didn't have last year. I sure hope Devin is a go for the playoffs. He keeps the pressure on the defense with both passing and scoring.

[lethalweapon3]

Edited April 10, 2013 by lethalweapon3

[HawkItus]

Can you put these rankings against the true shooting percentages for the teams? For instance is the worst Assisting team shooting particularly worse than the Spurs? Is there a good apg number for teams that marks where the good teams end and the bad teams begin?

[lethalweapon3]

Can you put these rankings against the true shooting percentages for the teams? For instance is the worst Assisting team shooting particularly worse than the Spurs? Is there a good apg number for teams that marks where the good teams end and the bad teams begin?

Hey, I'll dig into these TS% numbers some more hopefully tomorrow. As TS% goes, the Spurs (1st in APG) rank 3rd (57.2 TS%) behind the HEAT and the Thunder, while the Hawks (2nd in APG) rank 9th (54.6 TS%). Each of the top ten teams in TS% are playoff teams. Among the top ten in APG, only the Mavs (6th) and the Jazz (10th) are not certified playoff teams.

The Bobcats are the worst in APG (19.1 APG) and have a TS% of 50.4% (league-worst). However, the second-worst, Mike Woodson's and Carmelo's Knicks (19.3 APG) have a TS% of 55.2% (6th-best in NBA). Playoff squads Indiana and Brooklyn are in the bottom-five for APG, while Memphis and Oklahoma City (2nd in NBA for TS%) are in the bottom-ten.

(I neglected to cite my sources above for the season-by-season rankings -- databasebasketball.com; sports.yahoo.com; basketball-reference.com)

~lw3

Edited April 10, 2013 by lethalweapon3

[HawkItus]

Hey, I'll dig into these TS% numbers some more hopefully tomorrow. As TS% goes, the Spurs (1st in APG) rank 3rd (57.2 TS%) behind the HEAT and the Thunder, while the Hawks (2nd in APG) rank 9th (54.6 TS%). Each of the top ten teams in TS% are playoff teams. Among the top ten in APG, only the Mavs (6th) and the Jazz (10th) are not certified playoff teams.

The Bobcats are the worst in APG (19.1 APG) and have a TS% of 50.4% (league-worst). However, the second-worst, Mike Woodson's and Carmelo's Knicks (19.3 APG) have a TS% of 55.2% (6th-best in NBA). Playoff squads Indiana and Brooklyn are in the bottom-five for APG, while Memphis and Oklahoma City (2nd in NBA for TS%) are in the bottom-ten.

(I neglected to cite my sources above for the season-by-season rankings -- databasebasketball.com; sports.yahoo.com; basketball-reference.com)

~lw3

Good stuff. Thanks LW3. As for the Knicks Woodson's scheme seems to defy logic when it comes to shooting. I regularly read where the Hawks were amazing to stat gurus. It appears simple enough that if you can limit the majority of your shots to your best player(s)(or star maybe more appropriate) apg holds less weight.

[benhillboy]

Superb post. We'd definitely be first if someone passesd up jumpers for those more capable, especially when said player is such a good passer! The main variable I see is Kyle. The spacing he provides for the offense has been invaluable to the style Drew wants. We get that post presence next season (nothing close to Duncan of course, but still...), and that Spurs model will begin to take shape, with or without Drew. Ferry knows enough about it.

Edited April 10, 2013 by benhillboy