Cap space article.

[Admin]

There's the problem. He's supposed to be this elite post scorer yet he's down in the dregs of rankings with all of the least efficient big men in the league who predominantly take jumpers or are chided for bad shot selection. There is a huge disconnect between what people say he's good at and the results it's producing.

I think he's got elite scoring ability but the production hasn't consistently translated. But there are games where he's unstoppable and maybe he just needs the right coaching and PG to put him in a position to do what he's best at more often.Still though I think most of us would take Hibbert and Jefferson is a more efficient scorer and rebounds at a higher rate than him. Hibbert is far better defensively but for a fair price we could build with a Horford / Jefferson from court. I'd have to have a guy like CP3 running the show and a competent coach with a real offense.

[MaceCase]

How many centers listed above him in TS%, is a better player offensively than Jefferson?

This is exactly what I'm talking about. Don't take that one stat, and try to make some sweeping judgement about his game or how efficient he is. Guys like Joakim Noah, Deandre Jordan, Tiago Splitter, and even Zaza had a higher TS% than Jefferson last year. But no one in their right mind is going to say that any of those guys are better offensive centers than Al Jefferson.

If your whole game is being an offensive center.....and you suck at it why would people value you over other centers that can defend miles better than you while also scoring more efficiently or are offensive centers who can, I don't know, actually score the ball? See you keep attaching these qualities to him that are simply not in existence yet you have no issue paying him on the level of guys who WIN BASKETBALL GAMES. How is it that a guy who dominates the ball on offense and shoots FTs at a 77% clip come out with such a league average scoring average?

You want to create these specific scenarios too as if they prove your points.

How about, who would you trust Al Jefferson to stop, up 1 with seconds left in the 4th?

The PG calls a pick and now he's faced with a decision where Dwight/Tim is rolling to the rim or the PG drives to the hole. Hmmmmmmmmmmmmm? What does he do, what does he doooooo?

After 36 minutes where he struggled to 20 points going one on one and yet the opposing front court of Joakim Noah easily floated to 20 points too to match him by leaving him pathetically hanging on pick and rolls with no worries of foul trouble of his own, the game is now on the line on a defensive possession. Who are you taking in that situation? So forgive me for not wanting a bottom of the league defense only being offset by a middle of the pack offense.

[AHF]

I think he's got elite scoring ability but the production hasn't consistently translated. But there are games where he's unstoppable and maybe he just needs the right coaching and PG to put him in a position to do what he's best at more often.Still though I think most of us would take Hibbert and Jefferson is a more efficient scorer and rebounds at a higher rate than him. Hibbert is far better defensively but for a fair price we could build with a Horford / Jefferson from court. I'd have to have a guy like CP3 running the show and a competent coach with a real offense.

Jefferson's production is incredibly consistent. He has had six seasons since he left Boston and shot between .520 TS% and .535 TS% every season. (4 seasons in the .520's and 2 seasons in the .530's).

I don't think his scoring is elite but he is a very effective scorer and I would love to have him on offense instead of Josh, for example. The question is on the defensive end of the floor. Hibbert changes the game defensively for the Pacers and that is his primary source of value - more so than rebounding or scoring - so they aren't real good comparisons.

[Admin]

How many centers listed above him in TS%, is a better player offensively than Jefferson? This is exactly what I'm talking about. Don't take that one stat, and try to make some sweeping judgement about his game or how efficient he is. Guys like Joakim Noah, Deandre Jordan, Tiago Splitter, and even Zaza had a higher TS% than Jefferson last year. But no one in their right mind is going to say that any of those guys are better offensive centers than Al Jefferson.

Don't make a sweeping judgement that I looked at one stat and arrived at a conclusion. There are a number of Cs on that list who are as good or better offensive centers and they don't all score like a Noah or Chandler.

[Admin]

Jefferson's production is incredibly consistent. He has had six seasons since he left Boston and shot between .520 TS% and .535 TS% every season. (4 seasons in the .520's and 2 seasons in the .530's). I don't think his scoring is elite but he is a very effective scorer and I would love to have him on offense instead of Josh, for example. The question is on the defensive end of the floor. Hibbert changes the game defensively for the Pacers and that is his primary source of value - more so than rebounding or scoring - so they aren't real good comparisons.

I'm not talking about consistent in a season level, I'm saying game to game week to week and month to month. There are games where he's unstoppable and games where he's below average. In the end it all works out the same or close to the same every year but there are plenty of games where you can see the elite scoring ability.

[AHF]

Just for reference for people, here is the efficiency of some elite scorers:

2012-13

Al Jefferson .520 TS%

Kevin Durant .647 TS%

Lebron James .640 TS%

James Harden .600 TS%

Chris Paul .594 TS%

Chris Bosh .592 TS%

Of the 49 players who scored at least 16 ppg last season (Jefferson averaged 17.8 ppg), Jefferson was 37th in efficiency - right between JR Smith and Eric Gordon.

http://bkref.com/tiny/a6Ful

What Jefferson brings that is real value that a lot of these guys don't is floor spacing for perimeter shooters. Guys like Al Horford (who scored basically the exact same PPG but much more efficiently) don't space the floor like Jefferson does.

What Jefferson doesn't bring is the ability to draw fouls in the post which limits his impact considerably. He doesn't get opposing centers in foul trouble or boost his efficiency with trips to the line. He takes only 2 point shots and hits them at a roughly 50% clip. That is good but not anything that moves the needle for winning games over the course of a season.

[MaceCase]

I think he's got elite scoring ability but the production hasn't consistently translated. But there are games where he's unstoppable and maybe he just needs the right coaching and PG to put him in a position to do what he's best at more often.Still though I think most of us would take Hibbert and Jefferson is a more efficient scorer and rebounds at a higher rate than him. Hibbert is far better defensively but for a fair price we could build with a Horford / Jefferson from court. I'd have to have a guy like CP3 running the show and a competent coach with a real offense.

What would a PG have to do with helping his game? He is best at being an iso back to basket player, not a pick and roll bigman so all he requires is anyone who can make a competent post feed. If you want a pick and roll bigman then there are far more elite players of which to pick from (much cheaper too) but the only type of PG Jefferson would really benefit from is a Derek Fisher type spacing the floor for him while he dominates the offense. Notice that the majority of post scoring (might just be all) big men all have scoring PGs playing alongside them rather than playmakers. You'd either lessen Paul's role to spot up shooter or Jefferson to a mid range pick and pop player.

Anyone would take Hibbert even disregarding age and upside because while he may not put up the gaudy personal numbers he anchors the #1 ranked defense in the league. Of course people would value a player whose stats translates directly to wins over a guy who can only get his thus why I made the Jamal Crawford comparison. It is the exact same situation, a guy who you can't trust to make the best of the offensive possessions he gets while being a negative on the other side.

Add to it that Roy had a monumentally bad regular season on offense that was not in line with his previous season's average and he's putting up a career high in scoring efficiency in the playoffs now. Both greater than Jefferson's.

Edited May 17, 2013 by MaceCase

[AHF]

I'm not talking about consistent in a season level, I'm saying game to game week to week and month to month. There are games where he's unstoppable and games where he's below average. In the end it all works out the same or close to the same every year but there are plenty of games where you can see the elite scoring ability.

Are you talking about JR Smith or Al Jefferson because that sounds like you are describing JR Smith. If he ends up in the same place year after year, I don't know what being unstoppable in certain games does. A lot of guys fit that mold. The elite scorers are the ones who are consistently elite so that their numbers at the end of the season reflect their elite scoring ability.

Frankly, I'm not sure his variation from game to game is anything unusual. He averaged 17.8 points last season. He scored more than 8 points outside of his average (9 or fewer / 26 or more) 12 times. Tim Duncan scored more than 8 points outside of his average 25 times out of 69 games.

Jefferson in 8 point range: 85% of the time

Duncan in 8 point range: 64% of the time

[TheNorthCydeRises]

northcyde - Sorry I messed up your plan. Can you fill in the names and numbers because I don't follow it?

I'm not sure if the disconnect is where we think the market will land (I expect Barnes to earn a higher deal this offseason, for example) or if it is the type of player (are you talking about a multi-year deal with Dalembert or is there another big you see like Zaza or Kaman, etc.).

AHF . . . I am not a fan that views things by "hoping". I simply deal with what is in front of me, and go from there.

#1 . . . I'm NOT tanking, and risking alienating the only asset I have in Al Horford. My goal for next season is to see if he can take on an expanded role on the team, making him the marquee name, and see if I can add one or two real good pieces around him to enhance his game, and make the Hawks better. And because the Hawks owners are having money problems as it is, I'm not tanking because I don't want to lose even more money.

#2 . . . I'm taking the best players available with those draft picks, regardless of position.

#3 . . . I'm filling out the rest of the roster with players ( hopefully decent players ) who I can sign for 1 or 2 year deals

Offseason Moves

- Talk with Dwight and Paul to see if they want to team up in Atlanta. Have a CLEAR grasp of what they want to do BEFORE the draft. If I can't get some sort of commitment from either of them by the time the Draft comes around, I scrap any idea of trying to sign them. The last thing I want, is to be placed into a "Dwightmare" or rolled up in a "TarPAULlin", seeing what they're going to do. This could cause me to lose out on other guys that I could've signed. I'm not being held hostage by them.

- Decide what you want to do with Jeff Teague

- Take the best players available in the draft. Do NOT worry about need.

- Renounce EVERYONE on the roster, with the exception of Teague ( if bigs or wings are the free agent target )

- Target Jefferson and/or Iguodala.

- Sign decent players to 1 or 2 year deals to round out the roster

So say we strike out on Dwight and Paul

PG - Teague ( 5.5 mill in 1st year, then salary ascends . . Player option in Year 3 . . 4 year deal )

G - Tony Allen ( 5 million . . . Team option in Year 3 . . 3 year deal )

F - Chris Copeland ( 5 million . . 2 year deal . . . team option in year 2 )

PF - Horford ( 12 mill . . . 3 yrs left on deal )

C - Jefferson ( 15 mill in 1st year, then salary descends . . . player options in Year 3 and year 4 . . 4 year deal )

G - L. Williams ( 5.22 mill )

G - Jenkins ( 1.26 mill )

G - Shane Larkin ( 1.1 mill . . . 1st year of rookie deal )

G/F - Kentavious Caldwell-Pope ( 1.1 mill . . . 1st year of rookie deal )

F - Corey Brewer ( 3 million . . . 1 year deal )

F - Ivan Johnson ( 2 million . . . 1 year deal )

F - Mike Scott ( pick up option of .79 mill )

C - Samuel Dalembert ( 3 million . . 1 year deal )

C - Zaza Pachulia ( 3 million . . 2 year deal . . . team option in year 2 . . since people love him so much )

Total payroll . . . approx 63 million . . . with 16 million in contracts potentially falling off in summer of 2014

That's how you stay relevant, retain talent, retain cap flexibility, and keep yourself in the mix to obtain a big time free agent with a trade or two.

[Buzzard]

Really now.......I have flawed logic? So the Spurs "want" a guy but they aren't willing to offer up value for him. This is evidence of them valuing him.

And the Jazz, having a player that they themselves aren't even likely to retain would balk at moving him for another expiring and future prospects.

Yes, this makes absolute sense.

Teams always try and send their good players to a new conference. But you being the brilliant Fantasy GM would send your best scorer to a fellow conference power house. Shaq, east to west then back east, Melo, west to east, Deron west to east, Howard east to west. The big three is one of the few times it did not happen and that is because they were already FA's ( walking or do a SNT).

Your logic does not make sense to most GM's. ( Miami, LA, Denver, Magic). But they are just not as smart as you. I am in awe of your sheer genius.

Edited May 17, 2013 by Buzzard

[AHF]

northcyde - Thanks for putting that together.

My only qualms with your team building:

(1) I think you have underpriced several players. Starting with your big men: Dalembert is 32 years old and has had a very good season. His per 36 numbers are 15 points, 13 rebounds and 2.5 blocks. You are not signing him for $3M for 1 year when he is coming off a season in which he earned just under $7M. Likewise, Zaza is not going to sign for a 1 year deal or give a cheap team option. Zaza is 29 and his per 36 numbers were 10 points and 11 rebounds. To get that level of big man, you are going to have to commit significantly more dollars and/or more years.

I also find it very unlikely that Teague is going to come in starting at less than $6M per season.

I think you are very hopeful about players taking short deals with team options.

On the plus side, I really like the idea of a descending salary structure for Al Jefferson's contract (I assumed his contract would descend at roughly the same rate that Teague's ascended for purposes of looking at next offseason's cap situation).

(2) Not sure you really kept much flexiblity for next offseason. You have over 51 million on the books for next offseason which leaves you with about 10-11 million to sign a FA assuming the cap increases by 10% to 66M (once you factor salaries, our draft pick and cap holds). If you cut Copeland, that opens you up to signing another Al Jefferson level player at 15M.

(3) That looks like a recipe for mediocrity to me. That team's cap is about what we did this year and ends up with a pick in the 10-20 range. I don't see anything available next offseason in FA that will change this team's fortune so it is really praying we get super lucky on a non-lottery pick or treading water until 2015 free agency, IMO.

Edited May 17, 2013 by AHF

[AHF]

Teams always try and send their good players to a new conference. But you being the brilliant Fantasy GM would send your best scorer to a fellow conference power house. Shaq, east to west then back east, Melo, west to east, Deron west to east, Howard east to west. The big three is one of the few times it did not happen and that is because they were already FA's ( walking or do a SNT).

Your logic does not make sense to most GM's. ( Miami, LA, Denver, Magic). But they are just not as smart as you. I am in awe of your sheer genius.

That is all fine and good but nobody from the East offered even a late first round pick for him. Nobody thought having him on the roster with Bird rights was worth a real asset.

[MaceCase]

Teams always try and send their good players to a new conference. But you being the brilliant Fantasy GM would send your best scorer to a fellow conference power house. Shaq, east to west then back east. Melo, west to east, Deron west to east, Howard east to West. The big three is one of the few times it did not happen and that is because they were already FA's ( walking or do a SNT).

Your logic does not make sense to most GM's. ( Miami, LA, Denver, Magic). But they are just not as smart as you. I am in awe of your sheer genius.

But in your mind they would prefer him potentially signing in San Antonio or Dallas or Houston or Portland or Phoenix anyway without them getting any compensation for him. This is not a very well thought out or logical argument.

[TheNorthCydeRises]

Don't make a sweeping judgement that I looked at one stat and arrived at a conclusion. There are a number of Cs on that list who are as good or better offensive centers and they don't all score like a Noah or Chandler.

But isn't that exactly what you're doing, with your focus totally being on TS%? How about taking a complete offensive and overall snapshot of those players?

When you sort that same group of players according to PER . . . Jefferson ranks 15th . . . ( 3rd amongst centers )

When you sort them by Offensive Rating ( ORtg ). . . he ranks 24th . . . ( 5th amongst centers )

When you sort them by Offensive Win Score ( OWS ). . . he ranks 24th . . . ( 5th amongst centers )

When you sort them by Total Win Score ( TWS ). . . he ranks 20th . . . ( 5th amongst centers )

When you sort them by Win Score per 48 ( WS/48 ) . . . he ranks 23rd . . ( 6th amongst centers )

Hell, even when you sort this list by DEFENSIVE Win Score ( DWS ) . . . he ranks 20th . . ( 5th amongst centers )

And DEFENSIVE Rating ( DRtg ) . . . 20th . . . ( 5th amongst centers )

But let you guys tell it, Jefferson doesn't even help his team win or isn't "transcendent" enough of a player to add to this roster?

Please.

Outside of his TS%, he ranks in the top 5 in centers in most other categories, and in the top 25 overall. But the skills and talent he brings to the table isn't good enough? Having he and Horford on the team together ( who also placed in the top 25 in most of these categories . . higher than Jefferson in most categories ), isn't an intriguing proposition to explore?

If not . . then Ferry needs to trade Horford for some scrubs, and completely tank this thing.

Just for comparison, here is where Josh Smith ranked in each of those categories amongst those 49 players:

PER - 33rd

TS% - 45th

ORtg - 49th ( dead last )

DRtg - 7th

OWS - 49th ( dead last )

DWS - 7th

TWS - 44th

WS/48 - 43rd

[TheNorthCydeRises]

northcyde - Thanks for putting that together.

My only qualms with your team building:

(1) I think you have underpriced several players. Starting with your big men: Dalembert is 32 years old and has had a very good season. His per 36 numbers are 15 points, 13 rebounds and 2.5 blocks. You are not signing him for $3M for 1 year when he is coming off a season in which he earned just under $7M. Likewise, Zaza is not going to sign for a 1 year deal or give a cheap team option. Zaza is 29 and his per 36 numbers were 10 points and 11 rebounds. To get that level of big man, you are going to have to commit significantly more dollars and/or more years.

I also find it very unlikely that Teague is going to come in starting at less than $6M per season.

I think you are very hopeful about players taking short deals with team options.

On the plus side, I really like the idea of a descending salary structure for Al Jefferson's contract (I assumed his contract would descend at roughly the same rate that Teague's ascended for purposes of looking at next offseason's cap situation).

(2) Not sure you really kept much flexiblity for next offseason. You have over 51 million on the books for next offseason which leaves you with about 10-11 million to sign a FA assuming the cap increases by 10% to 66M (once you factor salaries, our draft pick and cap holds). If you cut Copeland, that opens you up to signing another Al Jefferson level player at 15M.

(3) That looks like a recipe for mediocrity to me. That team's cap is about what we did this year and ends up with a pick in the 10-20 range. I don't see anything available next offseason in FA that will change this team's fortune so it is really praying we get super lucky on a non-lottery pick or treading water until 2015 free agency, IMO.

AHF . . . so tank the entire thing then. But you can't halfway do it. You have to sell off everybody. Teague. Horford. Everybody.

Outside of CP3 or D12 coming here, any lineup I try to construct is going to look like the "recipe for mediocrity". And there's not even a single guy that people can agree to target in the next 2 years, that might bring us our "superstar". It doesn't matter if I put together a Jefferson - Iggy - Horford lineup . . . or a Pekovic - Horford - Teague lineup . . or any other lineup that people can concoct. It's going to be viewed as "mediocre" in people's eyes.

So what do we do?

I know if I were the Hawks ownership, there would be no way I'm tanking. Not when I can continually mix and match pieces, stay somewhat relevant, and maybe put myself in position to make a major trade to bring in a true star player.

The lineup I constructed has virtually no chance to win a championship. But it does keep us at playoff level, with the ability to see what some of those free agents like Copeland can do, if given the chance to play everyday.

It also stocks the team with young talent that may develop into good players. If the young players can play above what they're worth, now we're talking about the Hawks being in position to add the right veteran players to really make the team better.

All I know is that I would be highly intrigued with a skilled low post player like Jefferson, being teamed up with a skilled high post player like Horford, with Horford playing the scorer/facilitator role that Josh tried to play ( sometimes unsuccessfully ).

[AHF]

We aren't really that far apart.

Both of us want to land Dwight and/or Paul as the first option.

Both of us have (a) add talent and stay flexible or (b) tank as our next options. I agree that you don't tank halfway but I do think we can tank with getting rid of Teague, Korver, et al. but not Horford as in the previous tanking lineup I suggested. But if we can land a top half 2014 lottery pick for Horford and we plan to tank then I would be open to that as well (Horford to the Wizards, for example?).

Your complaint that all the lineups you can propose are perceived as mediocre is the reason I prefer tanking if we strike out on a true star: there are a limited number of impact free agents over the next two seasons and an outstanding draft class next year. That is a formula that lends itself to tanking, IMO.

I think there are legit arguments to be made for both plan B's and enjoyed the discussion.

[Admin]

But isn't that exactly what you're doing, with your focus totally being on TS%? How about taking a complete offensive and overall snapshot of those players? When you sort that same group of players according to PER . . . Jefferson ranks 15th . . . ( 3rd amongst centers )When you sort them by Offensive Rating ( ORtg ). . . he ranks 24th . . . ( 5th amongst centers )When you sort them by Offensive Win Score ( OWS ). . . he ranks 24th . . . ( 5th amongst centers )When you sort them by Total Win Score ( TWS ). . . he ranks 20th . . . ( 5th amongst centers )When you sort them by Win Score per 48 ( WS/48 ) . . . he ranks 23rd . . ( 6th amongst centers ) Hell, even when you sort this list by DEFENSIVE Win Score ( DWS ) . . . he ranks 20th . . ( 5th amongst centers )And DEFENSIVE Rating ( DRtg ) . . . 20th . . . ( 5th amongst centers ) But let you guys tell it, Jefferson doesn't even help his team win or isn't "transcendent" enough of a player to add to this roster? Please. Outside of his TS%, he ranks in the top 5 in centers in most other categories, and in the top 25 overall. But the skills and talent he brings to the table isn't good enough? Having he and Horford on the team together ( who also placed in the top 25 in most of these categories . . higher than Jefferson in most categories ), isn't an intriguing proposition to explore? If not . . then Ferry needs to trade Horford for some scrubs, and completely tank this thing. Just for comparison, here is where Josh Smith ranked in each of those categories amongst those 49 players: PER - 33rdTS% - 45thORtg - 49th ( dead last )DRtg - 7thOWS - 49th ( dead last )DWS - 7thTWS - 44thWS/48 - 43rd

No it's not all I am focusing on so please stop making assumptions and lumping me in with this anti-Jefferson group. I only listed his true shooting percentage and that's where I was comparing him, nowhere else. I've said multiple times in this thread I would take Jefferson for the right price.

[Admin]

Are you talking about JR Smith or Al Jefferson because that sounds like you are describing JR Smith. If he ends up in the same place year after year, I don't know what being unstoppable in certain games does. A lot of guys fit that mold. The elite scorers are the ones who are consistently elite so that their numbers at the end of the season reflect their elite scoring ability. Frankly, I'm not sure his variation from game to game is anything unusual. He averaged 17.8 points last season. He scored more than 8 points outside of his average (9 or fewer / 26 or more) 12 times. Tim Duncan scored more than 8 points outside of his average 25 times out of 69 games. Jefferson in 8 point range: 85% of the timeDuncan in 8 point range: 64% of the time

Since when do raw point totals make the argent either way? What are his FG%, TS% and eFG% on a game by game or even month by month basis? I have been mobile all day so haven't had a chance to look but I have a feeling those numbers show an inconsistency throughout the season.

[GameTime]

I have a feeling that Buzz would get buyers remorse if next year we were to get Jefferson get a 8th seed in the East and miss out on one of the best drafts since 03'. We have a shot at one of Wiggins (Bron), Parker (Melo), Randle (C-Webb), Smart (Harden) and more. A lineup with Horford as the only good player wins 25 games tops.

[AHF]

Since when do raw point totals make the argent either way? What are his FG%, TS% and eFG% on a game by game or even month by month basis? I have been mobile all day so haven't had a chance to look but I have a feeling those numbers show an inconsistency throughout the season.

The nice thing for Jefferson is that he shoots no 3's and shoots a very limited number of FTs as a % of his scoring so FG% is more telling for him than it is for most people in terms of scoring efficiency. I'll look by month to month since that is more doable. A game to game TS% variation, for example, requires more interest and effort than I am willing to put into this.

I am going to list Jefferson's FG% by month for months in which he played at least 10 games over the last 2 seasons:

2012-13 Overall .494 FG%

.473

.488

.477

.527

.471

2011-12 Overall .492 FG%

.484

.487

.526

.479

Total 9 months. 7 of 9 months with a FG% between .470 and .489. Average variation from overall season fg% = .018%.

Now let's compare to Tim Duncan.

2012-13 Overall .502 FG%

.519

.487

.496

.540

2011-12 Overall .492 FG%

.485

.470

.485

.592

4 of Duncan's 8 months fall into the same range (pick any .020 range you want). Average variation from overall season fg% = .027%.

So Duncan shows 50% more variation from month to month than Al Jefferson does.

Again, this suggests Jefferson is pretty darn consistent.