Larry Coon on new CBA, Howard and Smith

[Jody23]

Nice video. He seems to think the new CBA will result in Josh getting a deal in between 7 to 10 milliin per. http://www.peachtreehoops.com/2013/6/1/4386218/video-larry-coon-cba-josh-smith-dwight-howard

[Jody23]

*million.

[MaceCase]

I think he massively contradicted himself. He starts off the interview by saying that there are more teams with cap space than they are top free agents so I don't see how arguably the 3rd best free agent after Dwight and Paul only walks away with a deal paying him 40 million over 4 years considering the number of available suitors. Josh is more likely to take that total amount over a 3 year deal than a 4. He seems to have a premise in his mind about how the new CBA will depress player salaries but then admits that he hasn't actually seen that trend occur yet.

[Admin]

I hope that he's right and this new era of FA sees these 2nd tier types of players for what they're worth in relation to the top tier guys who deserve the 15-20 million dollar salaries.At 10 million I'm probably bringing back Josh if Budz thinks he can reign him in.

[MaceCase]

But that theory would fly in the face of basic economics. If there is high demand and low supply then how is it that Josh's salary would somehow become so depressed? There is a lot of wiggle room beneath a max yet Coon sees him as being worth starting at just over a 3rd of one? Really? He thinks he'd be looking at similar deals to the one he suggested JR Smith would be worth? Teams are also now supposed to spend a greater percentage of the cap so given the large available market, greater incentive and, most importantly, the fact he hasn't seen an actual trend towards his thinking, how is it Josh Smith will be looking at making 3-6 million less annually than what he currently made?I mean yay, it would be great locking someone like Josh into something like ~8.5 million but common sense is telling me otherwise. He turned down an extension worth twice that amount, hell, Paul Millsap even turned down an extension worth that amount. I just don't see how the NBA landscape has changed so dramatically in the span of a year. This will be the 3rd year of the new CBA and even before that everyone knew we'd be moving towards a more restrictive one and there is still no trend to speak of that goes in line with Coon's thinking.

[Guest]

I think he massively contradicted himself. He starts off the interview by saying that there are more teams with cap space than they are top free agents so I don't see how arguably the 3rd best free agent after Dwight and Paul only walks away with a deal paying him 40 million over 4 years considering the number of available suitors. Josh is more likely to take that total amount over a 3 year deal than a 4. He seems to have a premise in his mind about how the new CBA will depress player salaries but then admits that he hasn't actually seen that trend occur yet.

Spot on. The reasons that he gave just did not add up. Really, just don't trust his economics when he screws up defining a buyer's market and a seller's market. The player's are the ones supplying labor, so when you have more teams with cap space it becomes a seller's market since there will be an excess number of teams bidding for the limited supply of labor. Coon says the exact opposite.

I am looking at the free agents upcoming that Josh is likely to compete with: Iguodala, West, Landry, Millsap, Hickson, Jefferson. That seems like a fair number of players out there. So I may disagree with what Coon's reasons are for thinking Josh will get $9,m to $10m, but the market appears to be shaking up like it may actually become a true buyer's market. And in a true buyer's market, yeah Josh will have less money than what we expected all along.

[Diesel]

Nice video. He seems to think the new CBA will result in Josh getting a deal in between 7 to 10 milliin per. http://www.peachtreehoops.com/2013/6/1/4386218/video-larry-coon-cba-josh-smith-dwight-howard

If the best Smoove could do is 10 million per, he will kick himself for turning down our 15 Mill per.

[thecampster]

We should sticky this. I think Coon is going to be proven wrong here. I still stick by my thought that he'll get a deal somewhere starting at 14 per. Maybe the only caveat to that would be if he takes a discount to play for a top tier team.

[DrReality]

If the best Smoove could do is 10 million per, he will kick himself for turning down our 15 Mill per.

If its for the right money sign him and trade him. I'd really like to see bud coach this guy like a man and not a brat. Give him a few months and if he doesn't shape up.........bye bye

[PSSSHHHRRR87]

I'd gladly give Smoove $7-10 mil/yr, so long as CP3 and/or Dwight is here. 4 yr/ $36 mil is a-okay with me.

[Kimsey]

I think Josh would take much less to sign here if CP and DH would sign. I guess his "demand" was under the premise of signing with a gutted, rebuilding team.

I know the Pistons and Bobcats would give him alot of their cap space.

[NBASupes]

If Josh is getting at most 7 mil, we might could resign him with Dwight and CP3. I doubt it, I bet he is getting 12-14 mil. Heck, Kris Hump got that and Josh is ten times better.

[Admin]

If Josh is getting at most 7 mil, we might could resign him with Dwight and CP3. I doubt it, I bet he is getting 12-14 mil. Heck, Kris Hump got that and Josh is ten times better.

Humphries got that under the old CBA so it's probably going to be different this year as I believe the owners will try and cut back on the amount spent on non-superstars. We shall see but my guess is that Josh gets about $12 million per over 3-4 years and for that amount I'd strongly consider bringing him back if Budz felt good about it.

[Guest]

Humphries got that under the old CBA so it's probably going to be different this year as I believe the owners will try and cut back on the amount spent on non-superstars. We shall see but my guess is that Josh gets about $12 million per over 3-4 years and for that amount I'd strongly consider bringing him back if Budz felt good about it.

Pretty sure Hump got that on the new CBA.I just think Coon is the wrong person to ask about economics of the CBA. He knows the CBA front and back but...well he is a comp sci professor. He aint dumb but I do not trust his undestanding of economics.

[Admin]

Pretty sure Hump got that on the new CBA.I just think Coon is the wrong person to ask about economics of the CBA. He knows the CBA front and back but...well he is a comp sci professor. He aint dumb but I do not trust his undestanding of economics.

I think you are right about that. Boy the Nets are really freaking stupid for giving him that much money.

[Buzzard]

We should sticky this. I think Coon is going to be proven wrong here. I still stick by my thought that he'll get a deal somewhere starting at 14 per. Maybe the only caveat to that would be if he takes a discount to play for a top tier team.

I think teams are going to go all out to stay under that luxury line. 14 mill for Josh is 25% of your non capped payroll if the cap is around 56 million. Who ever signs him for that 1st off better be sure he is one of the best three on the team and worth it. And secondly, at 14 starting, there is not a lot of wiggle room for raises.

Edited June 2, 2013 by Buzzard

[Buzzard]

Humphries got that under the old CBA so it's probably going to be different this year as I believe the owners will try and cut back on the amount spent on non-superstars. We shall see but my guess is that Josh gets about $12 million per over 3-4 years and for that amount I'd strongly consider bringing him back if Budz felt good about it.

I think Josh will get around that. 50 million over four years tops and will rue the day he turned down 45 over 3 years. I see a team thinking he has similar value to say a Conley but not a star.

[thecampster]

I think teams are going to go all out to stay under that luxury line. 14 mill for Josh is 25% of your non capped payroll if the cap is around 56 million. Who ever signs him for that 1st off better be sure he is one of the best three on the team and worth it. And secondly, at 14 starting, there is not a lot of wiggle room for raises.

A fair way to look at it given your top 3 player on the roster criteria is to say,

There are 30 NBA teams

there are 3 top 3 players per team.

There are 90 top 3 players in the league.

Question, is Josh a top 90 player in the league?

According to PER, Josh was 64th in the league this year. Last year he was 29th. The year before he was 35th.

Add in the fact that he is an above average defender and you have a player who is at least top 50 in the league.

Now consider a team like the Charlotte Bobcats. They will be 19 million under the cap this year and 36 million under next year. However, they are not a top free agent destination center. They desperately need a player like Josh to fuel fan excitement and hope.

When determining what a player will get in free agency, you don't ask what is he worth to your team. You ask "what is he worth to every team". The only question remaining revolves around whether Josh wants to win or get paid.

[NBASupes]

Guys who get 7 mil in the NBA are average players many times, I can't see someone who is really good getting less than 10 mil.

[MaceCase]

I'm just looking at some of last summer's deals that would fit Coon's range:

Ryan Anderson: 4 years 34 million

Omer Asik: 3 years 25 million

Nicolas Batum: 4 years 46 mil

Goran Dragic: 4 years 30 mil

Tim Duncan: 3 years 30 mil

Kevin Garnett: 3 years 36 mil

Eric Gordon: 4 years 58 mil

Jeff Green: 4 years 36

Roy Hibbert: 4 years 58 mil

Kris Humphries: 2 years 24 mil

Irsan Ilyasova: 5 year 40 mil

Jeremy Lin: 3 years 25 mil

Andrei Kirilenko: 2 years 20 mil

JaVale McGee: 4 years 44 mil

Gerald Wallace: 4 years 40 mil

So hmm, if Josh is considered as a guy coming off his rookie deal in his mid 30s then yea, Coon would be absolutely right in that his range is between 7-10 mil.