Thoughts On Nikola Pekovic?

[wolvetigers]

Top centers in a few stats:

True Shooting %:

1. Tyson Chandler 67.4%

2. Chris Bosh 59.3%

3. J.J. Hickson 59.1%

4. Dwight Howard 57.4%

5. Robin Lopez 57.3%

6. Nikola Pekovic 57.0%

7. Brook Lopez 56.7%

8. Al Horford 56.2%

9. Marc Gasol 55.9%

10. Omer Asik 55.8%

Total Rebounding Rate

1. Omer Asik 22.0

2. JJ Hickson 20.8

3. Nikola Vucevic 20.2

4. Dwight Howard 19.2

5. Tyson Chandler 19.1

6. DeMarcus Cousins 18.8

7. Emeka Okafor 18.7

8. Larry Sanders 18.6

9. Joakim Noah 17.4

10. Greg Monroe 16.6

11. Al Jefferson 16.4

12. Nikola Pekovic 16.1

13. Roy Hibbert 16.1

14. Al Horford 15.7

Offensive Rebounding Rate:

1. Roy Hibbert 14.8

2. Tyson Chandler 14.1

3. Nikola Pekovic 13.3

4. J.J. Hickson 13.2

5. Omer Asik 12.7

6. Robin Lopez 12.5

7. Joakim Noah 12.2

8. Nikola Vucevic 12.0

9. Larry Sanders 11.0

10. Brook Lopez 10.9

PER:

1. Brook Lopez 24.77

2. Al Jefferson 20.90

3. Nikola Pekovic 20.24

4. Chris Bosh 20.2

5. DeMarcus Cousins 20.2

6. Al Horford 19.96

7. Dwight Howard 19.79

8. J.J. Hickson 19.61

9. Marc Gasol 19.58

10. Greg Monroe 19.44

Defensive Rating:

1. Roy Hibbert 97.0

2. Marc Gasol 98.0

3. Emeka Okafor 99.0

4. Joakim Noah 99.0

5. Dwight Howard 100.0

6. DeAndre Jordan 101.0

7. Kendrick Perkins 102.0

8. Al Horford 102.0

9. Chris Bosh 103.0

10. Omer Asik 103.0

Based on that I rather have JJ Hickson...no way we pay Pekovic 13mill per...just no way

[Buzzard]

Basically, the most bang for the buck would be to get Houston to agree to trade Omer Asik for Josh Smith in a sign and trade deal since they are the most likely team for Howard. The Hawks could then get Asik, who was the top rebounding big man as far as his rebounding rate goes and is also one of the top defensive big men in the game.

Sign and trade Asik means Josh will sign pretty cheaply. The cap hit on Asik is 8.3 million, even though he gets the biggest chunk, 14million, in the 3rd year. Maybe Coon ends up being right.

Edited June 2, 2013 by Buzzard

[BrazilianHawk]

Max him and forget bout the diva. Pek has a very bright future in the league, but I'd guess Minny knows this as well.

[KB21]

Sign and trade Asik means Josh will sign pretty cheaply. The cap hit on Asik is 8.3 million, even though he gets the biggest chunk, 14million, in the 3rd year. Maybe Coon ends up being right.

If I'm not mistaken, the way his contract was structured, that $14 million would only be the cap hit if the Bulls had matched the offer. His cap hit with the Rockets throughout the deal is $8.3 million. What I am unaware of is whether that is the same if he gets traded.

[Buzzard]

Well you have to look at a few things:

Kahn didn't value Love that highly (he wasn't his pick) and only gave him a 4 year deal instead of a 5 year deal.

Their owner Glen Taylor doesn't believe Love is a star either as he so succintly put it that he hasn't led them to the playoffs.

Love wasn't too happy about those comments or the contract but he can opt out in 2 years.

They drafted Derrick Williams, a PF, 2nd overall.

Rick Adelman is like 70 and most likely in win now mode.

The Wolves will have no means in which to replace Pekovic with a player near his caliber yet resigning him even to his max won't put them anywhere near the tax.

So this leads me to a conclusion:

you can control Pekovic, Rubio, Williams for the next 4 years and beyond

you can only control Love for 2.

Do you really want to be making such short sighted franchise decisions especially when you could always trade Pek down the line for greater value? Who knows, maybe Flip Saunders is an idiot though.

I don't think Sanders is a idiot or a genius; he is a good basketball mind. Kahn is the wild card idiot in this management equation. 1st off he drafts lottery players at similar positions, see PG and PF. Then he alienates his best player because said player cannot carry them to the playoffs by himself. Kobe, Pierce, and Garnett could not do that; yet he expects Love to.

Kahn is the idiot and if we fail on D12, give him a chance to be an idiot one more time.

[Buzzard]

If I'm not mistaken, the way his contract was structured, that $14 million would only be the cap hit if the Bulls had matched the offer. His cap hit with the Rockets throughout the deal is $8.3 million. What I am unaware of is whether that is the same if he gets traded.

The cap hit is 8.3, but if it was not it would be worse for Josh. Asik makes just over 5 million next season.

Edited June 2, 2013 by Buzzard

[MaceCase]

I don't think Sanders is a idiot or a genius; he is a good basketball mind. Kahn is the wild card idiot in this management equation. 1st off he drafts lottery players at similar positions, see PG and PF. Then he alienates his best player because said player cannot carry them to the playoffs by himself. Kobe, Pierce, and Garnett could not do that; yet he expects Love to.

Kahn is the idiot and if we fail on D12, give him a chance to be an idiot one more time.

Kahn was fired and replaced by Flip Saunders and it was their owner Glen Taylor who said those comments about Love.

[Buzzard]

Kahn was fired and replaced by Flip Saunders and it was their owner Glen Taylor who said those comments about Love.

I read your post on Taylor saying that. My bad to have stated Kahn instead.

Edited June 2, 2013 by Buzzard

[Buzzard]

Here is a link on what I found on Asik's deal.

http://www.spotrac.c...kets/omer-asik/

[lethalweapon3]

The Eddie Munster 'do has GOT to go.

~lw3

[TheNorthCydeRises]

I like Pek but he does have his issues. I have two major issues with Pek; he seems injury prone and he is just a slightly above average defensive rebounder.This guy averaged around 30 minutes a game last season and only started 62 games. What happens when pay him big money and take him to 36 min a game? I notoriously watch box scores and he would vanish for weeks at a time.I'm on my cell and don't have the stats handy but his defensive rebounding rate leaves alot to be desired. He is however a very good offensive rebounder, but I value defensive rebounds more. Keep in mind that K.Love was out all season too he should of had alot more chances to rebound with 12+ rebounder a game missing.I believe Al Jefferson has a higher defensive win share number and he gets killed on this board.I like Pek at the right price, but I think he has a great chance to be over paid for his true value. He basically a rich man's Zaza. I think we should use moneyball principles and look for inefficiencies in the market. Splitter, Hickson and Dalembert will give you much more bang for your buck. Think Lou Williams signing.

Calling him a "rich man's Zaza" is right on the money, although he's far superior offensively than Zaza in post scoring

Your analysis is right on the money. Jefferson gets dogged like he's a weak player, yet, defensively he may be a little better than Pekovic. And Pekovic is strictly a 10 feet and in player on offense. And when people talk about Jefferson being a "black hole", Pekovic is DEFINITELY not passing that ball back out, once he gets it. He averaged less than 1 assist in almost 32 minutes a game.

Minnesota would be crazy not to keep him around, because he is a fan favorite, and they have absolutely nothing going for them as a franchise right now. For the Hawks though, choosing Pek over Jefferson ( especially in the Eastern Conference ) would be a mistake.

As for Hickson + Dalembert for a Jefferson or Pekovic price, that has its good and bad points.

- Production wise, Hickson and Dalembert do a lot in the time they're in the game

- Both are great rebounders on both ends of the floor

- Dalembert is still a very good shot blocker

- Both are relatively poor position defenders ( both get killed by good offensive centers )

- Both are probably best suited to come off the bench, although one will have to start ( preferably Dalembert )

- Bringing these two on will enable Horford to be the focal point of the offense.

My preference is a Horford - Jefferson - Ivan - Scott type of frontline, so that both Horford and Jefferson can play center, keeping us strong at all times in the middle, while Horford, Ivan, and Mike Scott can man the PF spots. With Ivan and Scott, give the guy who's playing the best, the most minutes. On most nights though, I'd assume that guy would be Ivan. But both guys would play every night. No DNPs for them.

PF - Horford ( 22 ) - Ivan ( 16 ) - Scott ( 10 )

C - Jefferson ( 35 ) - Horford ( 13 )

If that's our frontline rotation next year, I could definitely live with that.

[Buzzard]

Calling him a "rich man's Zaza" is right on the money, although he's far superior offensively than Zaza in post scoring

Your analysis is right on the money. Jefferson gets dogged like he's a weak player, yet, defensively he may be a little better than Pekovic. And Pekovic is strictly a 10 feet and in player on offense. And when people talk about Jefferson being a "black hole", Pekovic is DEFINITELY not passing that ball back out, once he gets it. He averaged less than 1 assist in almost 32 minutes a game.

Minnesota would be crazy not to keep him around, because he is a fan favorite, and they have absolutely nothing going for them as a franchise right now. For the Hawks though, choosing Pek over Jefferson ( especially in the Eastern Conference ) would be a mistake.

As for Hickson + Dalembert for a Jefferson or Pekovic price, that has its good and bad points.

- Production wise, Hickson and Dalembert do a lot in the time they're in the game

- Both are great rebounders on both ends of the floor

- Dalembert is still a very good shot blocker

- Both are relatively poor position defenders ( both get killed by good offensive centers )

- Both are probably best suited to come off the bench, although one will have to start ( preferably Dalembert )

PF - Horford ( 22 ) - Ivan ( 16 ) - Scott ( 10 )

C - Jefferson ( 35 ) - Horford ( 13 )

If that's our frontline rotation next year, I could definitely live with that.

I have always liked Sammy for what he does. He can be a Reggie Evans type big man coming off the bench and would possibly push the Birdman ( Heat ) and Perk ( Thunder ) to the bench for their respective teams.

Edited June 2, 2013 by Buzzard

[MaceCase]

If it's a discussion between two non-defending, non-passing, offensive big men I'd imagine that the one who is actually efficient at scoring the ball would win that tie-breaker.

[Buzzard]

If it's a discussion between two non-defending, non-passing, offensive big men I'd imagine that the one who is actually efficient at scoring the ball would win that tie-breaker.

The space eating bigger body may win also. You can't teach size...

Edited June 2, 2013 by Buzzard

[KB21]

I don't think Al Jefferson gets beat up on here, but we have to put things into perspective and look at the fit. Al Jefferson only fits with what Mike Budenholzer wants on this team if you are of the belief that you absolutely have to have a high usage scorer on the team. I don't think that is the case, and looking at what he had with the Spurs, I doubt Mike Budenholzer believes he needs a high usage, moderate efficient scorer.

Here's the kicker though. It's his defense that keeps him from being a fit. You don't say that everything starts with defense and then give Al Jefferson the contract he is going to want on the market this offseason.

http://www.caller.com/news/2013/feb/07/how-would-al-jefferson-fit-spurs/

And we haven't even covered defense. According to BasketballValue.com, the Jazz give up 110.53 points per 100 possessions while Jefferson is on the floor. When he is off the floor, their defensive efficiency drops to 101.21 points per 100 possessions allowed. That means Utah's defense gets nearly 10 points per 100 possessions better when Jefferson is off of the floor. With his net negative value of 9.32 points per 100 possessions on defense, Jefferson ranks as the third worst defensive player in the league by this metric. Jefferson is so bad on defense that, on a per 100 possessions basis, he is actually a net negative for the Jazz that gives up more than he adds back.

As a result, ball handlers are shooting 48% against Jefferson in the pick-and-roll. Per Synergy, of the 26 players that have defended pick-and-roll ball handlers on at least 200 possessions this season, Jefferson has given up the second most points per possession. As of right now teams are scoring a point per possession any time they put Jefferson into a pick-and-roll.

[KB21]

In short, if you sign Jefferson to be your center, you are going to need perimeter players that can defend extremely well on the perimeter and fight to get over the top of screens to keep from allowing free flowing movement towards the basket.

From an offensive standpoint, his propensity to play on the left block fits pretty well, as Al Horford plays mostly on the right block in the post and is mostly a perimeter oriented big. The question I have is how effective would he be in a perimeter oriented offense that doesn't work inside/out where his usage is going to be lower.

[MaceCase]

The space eating bigger body may win also. You can't teach size...

The size difference is negligible to me. What really concerns me is that one wants to be a ballerina in the post avoiding contact whereas the other is a bull in china shop who enjoys no better sight than his opponent looking up at him from the floor after a post move or pick.

[TheNorthCydeRises]

Can't teach skills either, once a player gets to a certain age.

To Pek's credit, he went for 19 points - 13 rebounds in this game ( 7 offensive boards ). So they basically played even vs each other.

Wish I could find a specific game clip of Pekovic vs the Jazz ( and Jefferson ) in this game. Only could find this generic highlight of the game overall

Once again though, you see just how talented Jefferson is as a post scorer, when you see his highlights in this game vs Pekovic

Pek played good position defense when Jefferson was in the post, but Jefferson's offensive talent is just too good.

[TheNorthCydeRises]

In short, if you sign Jefferson to be your center, you are going to need perimeter players that can defend extremely well on the perimeter and fight to get over the top of screens to keep from allowing free flowing movement towards the basket.

From an offensive standpoint, his propensity to play on the left block fits pretty well, as Al Horford plays mostly on the right block in the post and is mostly a perimeter oriented big. The question I have is how effective would he be in a perimeter oriented offense that doesn't work inside/out where his usage is going to be lower.

It's easier to find those good defensive perimeter players, than it is to find a real good low post scorer in this league. We could sign CJ Watson ( PG ), Tony Allen ( G ), and Matt Barnes ( F ), and dramatically improve the perimeter defensive prowess of this team. And probably secure them all for a total of under 10 million a year.

But finding a guy who can also be a #1 type option in the halfcourt offense, AND a go-to scorer on the low block at the end of games, is much harder to find.

In reality, this type of element in the half court was one of the reasons why the Hawks were so schizophrenic offensively over the years. When you have a team full of jumpshooters, without a good post threat, all it takes is for those jumpers not to fall for about a 6 minute stretch, for your team to get in trouble. And that used to happen way too much to the Hawks. When you talk about those 2009, 2010, and 2011 teams, we were a good low post option away from being a big time threat to reach the NBA Finals.

The Horford - Jefferson lineup would finally give us the type of offensive balance that the Hawks have needed here. Horford has also shown the ability to be a playmaker out of the high post. So if Bud has some of those high-low plays in his system that Drew had Josh and Al running, I could see Horford playing Josh's role as a facilitator at the FT line, with passes to Jefferson down on the block for the score.

IF we miss out on Howard and Paul-

- draft Shane Larkin

- draft Shabazz Muhammad

- re-sign Ivan

- re-sign Scott

- re-sign Teague

- sign Jefferson

- sign Allen

- sign Barnes

- sign Watson

- sign Dalembert

. . . and let's roll.

[Guest]

I love Shane Larkin. He is the best PnR pg in the draft. I call him "baby tony Parker"