Probabilities

[tbhawksfan]

I 've been observing a lot of enthousiasm and optimism concerning a possible CP3/DH reunion here with Horf and various other parts.I try to always use probabilities when I predict or try to anticipate the future; whether I 'm playing an active or passive role. If we apply probabilities (or odds if you prefer) to the Hawks up-coming moves; things would look a lot different around here.In the order of probabilities, the possibility of a CP and DH reunion here is much less likely than some other senarios. For example: the odds say it's much more likely that JS re-signs here rather than us getting CP/DH. If JS leaves, there are also much more probable senarios than us landing CP/DH. I think you can reference Vegas odds for the Hawks landing the 2; they arn't good.I think the most likely senario is that we don't get CP or DH, JS leaves and we rebuild around one nice FA, and a couple of decent ones and picks for now and wait for future opportunities to continue the climb.With this in mind, I'm just a bit perturbed by the CP/DH wallpaper on the site. Odds are that we'll be seeing these guys on other teams. CP and DH are not Hawks and likely won't be. Not that I think my 2 cents has much sway, but I don't like to see these non-Hawks dressed up as Hawks and masquerading on this site.

[Guest]

What "odds" are you refering to? There is no magical odds 8-ball you can ask for this stuff and all you did was say "Vegas odds" without any reference to said odds.Referencing your opinion as a probability does not make it a probability.

[NJHAWK]

Desperate times call for desperate measures. I think its probable that 97% of Hawk fans and Squawkers are dreaming of landing these two and have been since the JJ/Marv trades went down. I say keep them up.

[DrReality]

formula? agree with the idea of probabilities but they have to be figure somehow

[BudBall]

The wallpaper reminds me of the ray of hope I have.

[Ruckus]

The probability of most people on here seeing you as grumpy is extremely high.

[tbhawksfan]

http://mavsblog.dallasnews.com/2013/05/want-to-bet-dwight-howard-goes-to-the-mavericks-vegas-offers-latest-odds.html/ Not that we’re endorsing gambling, but RJ Bell of Pregame.com offered his latest odds on which NBA team standout center Dwight Howard will choose this summer. Yes, you can financially back your belief that Dwight in Big D will happen, but you may have a chance to make more money (the goal of free agency anyway) by picking some other options. Below are Bell’s odds. Our Eddie Sefko offered his opinion on where Dwight Howard might go earlier this month. Lakers: $100 wins $100 (even money) Rockets: 3/1 Mavs: 5/1 Nets: 8/1 Warriors: 10/1 Hawks: 12/1 Any other team: 6/1 Another example http://predictionmachine.com/dwight-howard-where-will-he-go What team will Dwight Howard play game 1 of the 2013-2014 Regular Season for? Los Angeles Lakers 4/7 Houston Rockets 11/4 Dallas Mavericks 3/1 Atlanta Hawks 6/1 Any Other Team 17/2 Here are two examples. If you factor in CP coming as well, the odds will get worse. Going against the majorities slim odds hopes doesn't rate as grumpy in my book.

[thecampster]

http://mavsblog.dallasnews.com/2013/05/want-to-bet-dwight-howard-goes-to-the-mavericks-vegas-offers-latest-odds.html/ Not that we’re endorsing gambling, but RJ Bell of Pregame.com offered his latest odds on which NBA team standout center Dwight Howard will choose this summer. Yes, you can financially back your belief that Dwight in Big D will happen, but you may have a chance to make more money (the goal of free agency anyway) by picking some other options. Below are Bell’s odds. Our Eddie Sefko offered his opinion on where Dwight Howard might go earlier this month. Lakers: $100 wins $100 (even money) Rockets: 3/1 Mavs: 5/1 Nets: 8/1 Warriors: 10/1 Hawks: 12/1 Any other team: 6/1 Another example http://predictionmachine.com/dwight-howard-where-will-he-go What team will Dwight Howard play game 1 of the 2013-2014 Regular Season for? Los Angeles Lakers 4/7 Houston Rockets 11/4 Dallas Mavericks 3/1 Atlanta Hawks 6/1 Any Other Team 17/2 Here are two examples. If you factor in CP coming as well, the odds will get worse. Going against the majorities slim odds hopes doesn't rate as grumpy in my book.

You're wasting your breath. Fan stands for fanatic. Crazy doesn't play into logic. If I were D12/Paul I would definitely collude and choose Atlanta. Money from winning an NBA championship > contract amount. It makes the most financial sense for them to choose the most secure option and Paul/Horford/Howard I would argue is a bigger three than Wade/Bosh/James.

18

An 18.6/9.8 PG shooting 47% with only 2.3 TO per game (better than 4/1 assist to T/O ratio), the best center in the game and an 18/9 54% FG% PF all with younger legs than Miami's group is a much better base to build from. Inside, outside and midrange game covered.

But talking sense into them and their agents is another story. The odds are not with us.

[Admin]

I would never bet against Vegas with those odds but it does seem strange they aren't showing any odds for Dwight and CP3 teaming up like they've talked about for a couple of years and there's only one place they can do that. In my book that drastically increases the odds of Dwight being a Hawk, not the other way around.

[tbhawksfan]

I'm hoping for the best. Trying to stay on an even keel incase it doesn't happen and also trying to put some thought into the other things coming up like the Draft and other (more likely) FAs that have a maybe better chance to land with us.Also don't want Ferry to get abused if he can't pull off the semi-miracle and land CP/DH. It would also go against the trend of top FA movement for them to come here. There are only a handfull of teams that get FAs like CP/DH.Still don't like other players having the honor of sporting our colors and infiltrating our sites when they are not Hawks. Until they join the Hawks, they're the guys I want to beat. Guess I'm old school in that I'd rather beat you with mine than try to buy yours.

[TheNorthCydeRises]

While I think it's highly unlikely that we'll land both Paul and Howard, I have no problem with the wallpaper on Hawksquawk.

Honestly, when we traded JJ and Marvin to give us all of this potential cap space once free agency begins, THIS is what fans intended it to be used for. We only have 3 people under contract right now. So should the wallpaper consist of Horford, Jenkins, and Williams? Should Smith's face still be on anything Hawk related? Should Al Jefferson and OJ Mayo in Hawks uniforms replace Howard and Paul?

This is a fan website, so the administrator can do whatever he wants. I think it gives a great touch to the site, and gives fans at least a little glimmer of hope for the next month or two, even if we all deep down don't believe that it will happen.

Seeing Paul and Howard on the wallpaper doesn't get my hopes up any further than what they were 2 months ago. But even I have to admit that they'd look DAMN GOOD in Red, White, and Blue.

If we land those two, we're stealing the Braves "America's Team" slogan, and daring them to take it from us.

[Admin]

Good stuff right there North!

[NBASupes]

Neither of those are places you can actually place down a bet for. The first does not show an option (at least I could not find it surfing through) and the second is a blog post for a company that predicts game outcomes. I hardly believe that to be Vegas.Probability implies you can actually measure the event. Will I go to the grocery store today? Look at my weekly and daily patterns and you can calculate odds. Will the Spurs beat the Heat? Set up a model (or simulation) that depends on basketball statistics and you can determine a likely outcome. Will Dwight change teams? How can you even model that, this boils down to a prop bet and those probabilities are unfounded in data.

I agree. Vegas also said Toronto was the favorites to win the World Series this year. Go Vegas!

[Admin]

I agree. Vegas also said Toronto was the favorites to win the World Series this year. Go Vegas!

The Blue Jays were 10 to 1 before spring training, according to the LVH Sportsbook. The Angels, Tigers, Dodgers and Nationals all had better odds.

[NBASupes]

The Blue Jays were 10 to 1 before spring training, according to the LVH Sportsbook. The Angels, Tigers, Dodgers and Nationals all had better odds.

Since I do not gamble nor care about that. This is all I remember:

http://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/mlb-big-league-stew/las-vegas-makes-blue-jays-world-series-favorites-193737946--mlb.html

[Admin]

Since I do not gamble nor care about that. This is all I remember:

http://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/mlb-big-league-stew/las-vegas-makes-blue-jays-world-series-favorites-193737946--mlb.html

I can't find the original article / web page that Yahoo referenced there but the one link in that Yahoo article that actually goes to something where they actually show the odds does work, which is where they said the Jays were 35-1 back in October.

http://www.beyondthebets.com/bovada-lv-becomes-1st-to-release-2013-world-series-odds-opens-tigers-as-61-favorites/

Even the Yahoo article is kind of irrelevant though as it was from back in December and spring training doesn't even start until the end of February.

The one that I referred to is below:

http://linemakers.sportingnews.com/mlb/2013-02-11/world-series-pennant-mlb-odds-2013-favorites-tigers-nationals-freeway-series

Either way it doesn't really matter to me, just showing that I didn't find the same thing that you were saying but I will agree I don't gamble either nor do I care about it.

[thecampster]

I'm hoping for the best. Trying to stay on an even keel incase it doesn't happen and also trying to put some thought into the other things coming up like the Draft and other (more likely) FAs that have a maybe better chance to land with us.Also don't want Ferry to get abused if he can't pull off the semi-miracle and land CP/DH. It would also go against the trend of top FA movement for them to come here. There are only a handfull of teams that get FAs like CP/DH.Still don't like other players having the honor of sporting our colors and infiltrating our sites when they are not Hawks. Until they join the Hawks, they're the guys I want to beat. Guess I'm old school in that I'd rather beat you with mine than try to buy yours.

Here is why those two names excite this board so much.

1. Dwight is the ATL. Played ball here, belongs here. PERIOD!!! People can't see that and seeing their local talent play for a rival for years hurt like all get out.

2. Paul should have been ours all along. Playing the odds, I say 99-1 that if BK could do it all over again he'd rethink that whole long and athletic is better than the best point guard to come down the pike in 15 years gambit he tried way back when.