Hawks looking to move Al Horford?

[NBASupes]

Isn't someone who struggles to create offensive consistently and who is clearly not a defensive anchor but who is good at a lot of things pretty much the definition of a third wheel on a championship team?

Other third wheel PFs on championship teams:

Chris Bosh

Horace Grant

Dennis Rodman

Rasheed Wallace

Bosh isn't someone who struggles to create his own offense hence his production when Bron and Wade isn't there and his play in Toronto. Bosh problem is he is more of a ball dominate guy and doesn't excel well off the ball not to mention he doesn't excel in the post either which hurts him in the playoffs.

Horace Grant is the worse comparison I can see. He is not anywhere near as smart as Horford nor is he close to Al in terms of his off the ball play. On the ball, they are similar but you can say the same for Grant in comparison to Malone if that's the only thing we are factoring.

Dennis Rodman??? Really Dennis Rodman. Not even close to the same type of player. Rodman style is more like Noah than Horford.

Sheed is more talented than anyone this list. Can defend two positions extremely well, can shoot, pass the rock with very good court vision, and score in the post. One of the most talented PF's in NBA history but his mentality was of one who never gave a s.... and didn't take being a personal Basketball player seriously even though he loved playing Basketball just not training or working on his game in his off time.

Out of that list only two struggle at creating their offense and no one but Horf can play off the ball extremely well or even just well.

List what you feel are Horford weaknesses please? Be honest, use analytics if you may.

Edited June 12, 2013 by Leadership

[Admin]

No - Really - that's not what I meant. (if I said that I was probably into the wine )...what I meant was that AL is no kinda guy (at least at this point) who should be thought of as the "Rock of Gibraulter" of this franchise.

He's good - yes - he doesn't get in trouble - yes (doesn't)...but he's a 6-9 1/2 Center/PF who I would classify as top 30%....a good player but he isn't an "impact" player.

Would you trade him straight up for his PF partner at Florida? (Noah)...well heck yeah - SURE you would- if you had any brains.

Noah is an impact player.

AHF nailed it above on the description of Horford and I agree he's not a franchise centerpiece but I wouldn't trade him straight up for Noah under any circumstance. Plus Noah would be an awful fit next to Dwight, unlike Horford who is a custom perfect fit.

[Guest]

I agree with AHF ...scenario c>b>a...ill keep smoove if cp comes but I'd rather keep Horford over Dwight if it means we have to keep smoove and get no Paul.

[Guest]

No way would cp3 allow smoove to be the lazy a$$ guy we have seen the last couple years. He would make him work and hustle...at least that's my wishful thinking if smoove stayed.

[AHF]

Bosh isn't someone who struggles to create his own offense hence his production when Bron and Wade isn't there and his play in Toronto. Bosh problem is he is more of a ball dominate guy and doesn't excel well off the ball not to mention he doesn't excel in the post either which hurts him in the playoffs.

Horace Grant is the worse comparison I can see. He is not anywhere near as smart as Horford nor is he close to Al in terms of his off the ball play. On the ball, they are similar but you can say the same for Grant in comparison to Malone if that's the only thing we are factoring.

Dennis Rodman??? Really Dennis Rodman. Not even close to the same type of player. Rodman style is more like Noah than Horford.

Sheed is more talented than anyone this list. Can defend two positions extremely well, can shoot, pass the rock with very good court vision, and score in the post. One of the most talented PF's in NBA history but his mentality was of one who never gave a s.... and didn't take being a personal Basketball player seriously even though he loved playing Basketball just not training or working on his game in his off time.

Out of that list only two struggle at creating their offense and no one but Horf can play off the ball extremely well or even just well.

List what you feel are Horford weaknesses please? Be honest, use analytics if you may.

It is less about Horford's weaknesses and more about his lack of real strengths. He is an elite jump shooter and a good, but not great, rebounder and defender. He struggles trying to create offense in the post or in one-on-one situations and hasn't found any play that he can ring up on opponents and therefore needs to take what the defense gives him rather than impose his will offensively. This is why you said he struggles to be consistent offensively but I would not phrase it as inconsistency so much as just limited offensively. Defensively, he is a very solid player but is not an anchor ala Ben Wallace, Dikembe, Duncan, James, Hakeem, etc.

He is like a star role player or a poor man's Karl Malone.

Can you have a championship team where he is the second best player and the next best player is clearly not on his level? I seriously doubt it. Can you have championship team where he is the third best player and the next best player is clearly not on his level? Definitely.

[NBASupes]

It is less about Horford's weaknesses and more about his lack of real strengths. He is an elite jump shooter and a good, but not great, rebounder and defender. He struggles trying to create offense in the post or in one-on-one situations and hasn't found any play that he can ring up on opponents and therefore needs to take what the defense gives him rather than impose his will offensively. This is why you said he struggles to be consistent offensively but I would not phrase it as inconsistency so much as just limited offensively. Defensively, he is a very solid player but is not an anchor ala Ben Wallace, Dikembe, Duncan, James, Hakeem, etc.

He is like a star role player or a poor man's Karl Malone.

Can you have a championship team where he is the second best player and the next best player is clearly not on his level? I seriously doubt it. Can you have championship team where he is the third best player and the next best player is clearly not on his level? Definitely.

You didn't name anything I didn't name but you didn't say what we can do to make his weaknesses better. You completely overlooked his elite off the ball ability. That's like saying Reggie Miller is nowhere near as good as Mitch Richmond on offense and completely overlooking his off the ball ability and his BBIQ. Sorry but I am not buying what you said because you are completely underselling him, just not to the degree as DJ.

How is he a poor man's Karl Malone? He does Malone do that's better than Horford. Don't say have John Stockton instead of Jeff Teague, Kurt Hinrich, and Mike Bibby because that much is obvious. Two average combo guards and an over the hill balanced PG doesn't equal John Stockton at all. John can run an offense, has elite decision making, gives Malone easy basket. Seriously, go watch a lot of film of Malone, what can he do that Al cannot do?

[Peoriabird]

Can't understand all of the Al hate on this board...Never will.

[NBASupes]

Can't understand all of the Al hate on this board...Never will.

I do, anytime you are not a superstar and a vet. You will face hate unless you have superstars playing with you. Noah gets a lot of hate from Chicago fans at times. It's just the way it is.

[AHF]

You didn't name anything I didn't name but you didn't say what we can do to make his weaknesses better. You completely overlooked his elite off the ball ability. That's like saying Reggie Miller is nowhere near as good as Mitch Richmond on offense and completely overlooking his off the ball ability and his BBIQ. Sorry but I am not buying what you said because you are completely underselling him, just not to the degree as DJ.

How is he a poor man's Karl Malone? He does Malone do that's better than Horford. Don't say have John Stockton instead of Jeff Teague, Kurt Hinrich, and Mike Bibby because that much is obvious. Two average combo guards and an over the hill balanced PG doesn't equal John Stockton at all. John can run an offense, has elite decision making, gives Malone easy basket. Seriously, go watch a lot of film of Malone, what can he do that Al cannot do?

Malone averaged more ppg than Horford's career high every season from his age 23 to 39 seasons. This included seasons where Stockton was not on the team or was a limited reserve on the team. I know that John Stockton is solely responsible for his rebounding as well but Malone averaged more rebounds per game than Hoford's career high from age 24 - 31. He averaged more steals per game than Horford's career high from age 22 - 35. He exceeded Horford's career high in assists every year for the last 12 years of his career.

For advanced metrics, Malone had higher Win Shares than Horford's career high every season (except when he missed 1/2 the season in 98-99) from age 25 to 37. WS/48 was better than Hoford's career high every season (including 98-99). For PER, Malone matched or exceeded Horford's career high every season from age 24 - 39. Even Horford's best advanced metric (TS%) isn't as good as Malone's.

If you go to the playoff numbers, the difference is even starker. Malone averaged more than 20 ppg in the playoffs every season from age 22 - 38. Horford's career high is 16.7. Horford's average rpg in the playoffs is 8.7 with a median rpg of 8.9. Malone averaged 10.7 rpg with a median of 10.4.

Horford has put up about 80% of the production that Malone did. Thus, poor man's Malone. If you imagine that he could do dramatically better in a different system then come back to me when he has done it on the court.

Next season our age 27 Al would need to put up 29.7 ppg and 13.3 rpg in the playoffs to match an age 27 Malone and put up 29.0 ppg and 11.0 rpg to match his regular season. Anyone holding their breath on this happening is going to die of asphyxiation and suffocate (or at least pass out and resume breathing when they no longer are voluntarily waiting on Al's 29/11 season).

[NBASupes]

Malone averaged more ppg than Horford's career high every season from his age 23 to 39 seasons. This included seasons where Stockton was not on the team or was a limited reserve on the team. I know that John Stockton is solely responsible for his rebounding as well but Malone averaged more rebounds per game than Hoford's career high from age 24 - 31. He averaged more steals per game than Horford's career high from age 22 - 35. He exceeded Horford's career high in assists every year for the last 12 years of his career.

For advanced metrics, Malone had higher Win Shares than Horford's career high every season (except when he missed 1/2 the season in 98-99) from age 25 to 37. WS/48 was better than Hoford's career high every season (including 98-99). For PER, Malone matched or exceeded Horford's career high every season from age 24 - 39. Even Horford's best advanced metric (TS%) isn't as good as Malone's.

If you go to the playoff numbers, the difference is even starker. Malone averaged more than 20 ppg in the playoffs every season from age 22 - 38. Horford's career high is 16.7. Horford's average rpg in the playoffs is 8.7 with a median rpg of 8.9. Malone averaged 10.7 rpg with a median of 10.4.

Horford has put up about 80% of the production that Malone did. Thus, poor man's Malone. If you imagine that he could do dramatically better in a different system then come back to me when he has done it on the court.

Next season our age 27 Al would need to put up 29.7 ppg and 13.3 rpg in the playoffs to match an age 27 Malone and put up 29.0 ppg and 11.0 rpg to match his regular season. Anyone holding their breath on this happening is going to die of asphyxiation and suffocate (or at least pass out and resume breathing when they no longer are voluntarily waiting on Al's 29/11 season).

I will break this down later. FYI, pace matters into the discussion as well as personnel and role. I will get to this post tonight.

[AHF]

Can't understand all of the Al hate on this board...Never will.

If you are talking about me, I love Al. He is the most important player on our team by far. Saying he isn't on par with one of the greatest PFs in NBA history or saying he isn't someone that you can hook up the wagon and drive to a championship isn't hate. Al is an ideal third best player on a championship team or a #2 or co-best player on a playoff team.

Being realistic isn't hate. Setting the bar unrealistically high for what Al can do will lead to resentment when he falls short. He should be appreciated for what he does and build around what he can do. He isn't Karl Malone 2.0, but is an excellent player.

[AHF]

I will break this down later. FYI, pace matters into the discussion as well as personnel and role. I will get to this post tonight.

Let's do a simple version.

Let's assume that pace, personnel and role boosted Malone's scoring by 20%. At age 27, the Jazz averaged a pace of 95.3 compared to a pace of 92.6 for Al last season. Malone averaged 29 ppg. Knocking that down by 20%, that sets the bar at 23.2 ppg.

When is Horford averaging 23 ppg?

* * *

No - let's make it even an easier discussion.

Let's assume that a full 30% of Malone's production was due to pace, personnel and role advantages where Al could not possibly have asserted himself over a great scorer like Josh Smith.

Malone's age 27 season at 70% of his production is 20.3 ppg.

Are you willing to do a signature bet that Horford puts up 70% of what Malone did at the same age next season with the signing of at least one major free agent?

If Horford averages 20.3 ppg or higher, I will put this in my signature for the first 3 months of next season:

"I was wrong. Horford is this generation's Karl Malone. Sorry Al - You are the man. [Leadership wins]"

If Horford averages less than 20.3 ppg, you put this in your signature:

"I was wrong. Horford is no Karl Malone. But he is our Hawk. Go Al! [AHF wins]"

Edited June 12, 2013 by AHF

[Admin]

If you are talking about me, I love Al. He is the most important player on our team by far. Saying he isn't on par with one of the greatest PFs in NBA history or saying he isn't someone that you can hook up the wagon and drive to a championship isn't hate. Al is an ideal third best player on a championship team or a #2 or co-best player on a playoff team.

Being realistic isn't hate. Setting the bar unrealistically high for what Al can do will lead to resentment when he falls short. He should be appreciated for what he does and build around what he can do. He isn't Karl Malone 2.0, but is an excellent player.

This!

[GameTime]

No way would cp3 allow smoove to be the lazy a$$ guy we have seen the last couple years. He would make him work and hustle...at least that's my wishful thinking if smoove stayed.

Bud definitively wouldn't allow it.

[AHF]

Lockout.

Malone only missed games due to injury with the Lakers. Oh and he sat out an All-Star game once with an injury. Talk about a beast. I believe all of his missed games with the Jazz were due to suspensions.

Yep. I didn't word that well, I was just pointing out that a stat that is game dependent (Win Shares) was lower because of how many fewer games he played than during a normal 82 game season. Al hasn't had a season cut anywhere close to that short because of a labor work stoppage.

Malone's health was amazing. (Stockton's really was too).

[Guest]

I'm a BIG Al fan but Al's individual offensive game is nowhere close to what Malone's was. Malone was a natural instinctive offensively player who knew exactly what he was going to do with the ball the minute he caught it, he did not have a typical back to the basket game but he posted often, had that running jump hook, step back jumper from the post and once he posted he could not be moved off the block - he would either turn and face up and shoot the 15 footer or blow by his man. He was decisive.With the proper coaching I think Al can improve his game. Can he be the focal offensive player to build around? Or just build with.

[Admin]

Yep. I didn't word that well, I was just pointing out that a stat that is game dependent (Win Shares) was lower because of how many fewer games he played than during a normal 82 game season. Al hasn't had a season cut anywhere close to that short because of a labor work stoppage.

Malone's health was amazing. (Stockton's really was too).

I object! Someone has hacked into AHF Esq.'s account because he never ever words something incorrectly.

[Admin]

Hey Al has almost had perfect attendance twice in the NBA (81 games). Don't you get a ribbon for that or something?

Except for that freak pec injury he's held up pretty darn well considering he's almost always battling someone bigger than him. If I were going to predict going forward who would play more games for the remainder of their career I would take Horford all day long over Noah.

[AHF]

I object! Someone has hacked into AHF Esq.'s account because he never ever words something incorrectly.

If only. In addition to not wording things correctly, I periodically enjoy wording things correctly that are themselves incorrect. Keeps everyone on their toes.

[Admin]

If only. In addition to not wording things correctly, I periodically enjoy wording things correctly that are themselves incorrect. Keeps everyone on their toes.

Word!