Hawks looking to move Al Horford?

[AHF]

Except for that freak pec injury he's held up pretty darn well considering he's almost always battling someone bigger than him. If I were going to predict going forward who would play more games for the remainder of their career I would take Horford all day long over Noah.

Me too. Al hasn't been at a Malone level for durability but he has been as good as you can reasonably hope for when drafting a young man for the NBA. He has missed only 7.3% of games if you exclude his one injury marred season. That is a much better track record than someone like Noah.

[Admin]

Me too. Al hasn't been at a Malone level for durability but he has been as good as you can reasonably hope for when drafting a young man for the NBA. He has missed only 7.3% of games if you exclude his one injury marred season. That is a much better track record than someone like Noah.

Yep Noah seems to have a lot of nagging little injuries whereas Horford has been remarkably healthy considering the punishment he gets regularly in the paint. I'm still amazed that he came back and played as well as he did this year considering he was still getting his strength and flexibility back from the injury. Thankfully he didn't re-injure it and I hope that it's completely behind him and we can look forward to many more healthy years.

[NBASupes]

I'm a BIG Al fan but Al's individual offensive game is nowhere close to what Malone's was. Malone was a natural instinctive offensively player who knew exactly what he was going to do with the ball the minute he caught it, he did not have a typical back to the basket game but he posted often, had that running jump hook, step back jumper from the post and once he posted he could not be moved off the block - he would either turn and face up and shoot the 15 footer or blow by his man. He was decisive.With the proper coaching I think Al can improve his game. Can he be the focal offensive player to build around? Or just build with.

This and AHF argument is extremely flawed. It really isn't fair to compare when you see one going v. PF's he is bigger than or equal to in size to one going up v. 6-10 to 7fts with massive bulk usually bigger than he is. Like I stated. I will address all of this tonight. I have already broken down AHF points and have an argument on hand. I just need to do the numbers which I can't do on the company hours.

As for you. This is an opinion based statement which I agree and disagree with. You will see later. Some of what I will write later will address both you and AHF.

No, you can't build or start a franchise with Al Horford. You cannot do it with Malone either. Both players are system players.

Edited June 12, 2013 by Leadership

[AHF]

No, you can't build or start a franchise with Al Horford. You cannot do it with Malone either. Both players are system players.

You can win a championship on a team whose best player is Karl Malone. Utah would likely have done it twice had it not been for Michael Jordan.

No one is winning a championship on a team whose best player is Al Horford unless it is a team of 5 Al Horford level players and the stars align (ala Detroit's most recent championship).

[Guest]

This and AHF argument is extremely flawed. It really isn't fair to compare when you see one going v. PF's he is bigger than or equal to in size to one going up v. 6-10 to 7fts with massive bulk usually bigger than he is. Like I stated. I will address all of this tonight. I have already broken down AHF points and have an argument on hand. I just need to do the numbers which I can't do on the company hours. As for you. This is an opinion based statement which I agree and disagree with. You will see later. Some of what I will write later will address both you and AHF. No, you can't build or start a franchise with Al Horford. You cannot do it with Malone either. Both players are system players.

I don't need numbers to tell me that Malone's offensive game at 27 was more developed than Al's game at 27. The eye test works just fine for me. It wasn't just the PnR with Malone, he had a myriad of moves from the post that he developed over time.

[NBASupes]

I don't need numbers to tell me that Malone's offensive game at 27 was more developed than Al's game at 27. The eye test works just fine for me. It wasn't just the PnR with Malone, he had a myriad of moves from the post that he developed over time.

What post moves did Malone use with any consistency? Sorry, just saying it doesn't make it true. I use the eye test too and I am telling you what can Malone do that Al cannot do. I know the differences and will address them later but that's not what I asked you and I have a nice paper I will write for AHF later as well.

Edited June 12, 2013 by Leadership

[AHF]

What post moves did Malone use with any consistency? Sorry, just saying it doesn't make it true. I use the eye test too and I am telling you what can Malone do that Al cannot do. I know the differences and will address them later but that's not what I asked you and I have a nice paper I will write for AHF later as well.

Ready to take that bet and show your confidence in Horford?

[NBASupes]

Ready to take that bet and show your confidence in Horford?

What bet? I only read your post I replied to.

[AHF]

Let's do a simple version.

Let's assume that pace, personnel and role boosted Malone's scoring by 20%. At age 27, the Jazz averaged a pace of 95.3 compared to a pace of 92.6 for Al last season. Malone averaged 29 ppg. Knocking that down by 20%, that sets the bar at 23.2 ppg.

When is Horford averaging 23 ppg?

* * *

No - let's make it even an easier discussion.

Let's assume that a full 30% of Malone's production was due to pace, personnel and role advantages where Al could not possibly have asserted himself over a great scorer like Josh Smith.

Malone's age 27 season at 70% of his production is 20.3 ppg.

Are you willing to do a signature bet that Horford puts up 70% of what Malone did at the same age next season with the signing of at least one major free agent?

If Horford averages 20.3 ppg or higher, I will put this in my signature for the first 3 months of next season:

"I was wrong. Horford is this generation's Karl Malone. Sorry Al - You are the man. [Leadership wins]"

If Horford averages less than 20.3 ppg, you put this in your signature:

"I was wrong. Horford is no Karl Malone. But he is our Hawk. Go Al! [AHF wins]"

[NBASupes]

That's your bet. No. Not sure what the style maybe regardless of personnel. Plus let's say we land D12, Horf would battling for boards with the best rebounder since Big Ben. I'll pass.

Come up with a more reasonable bet.

[AHF]

That's your bet. No. Not sure what the style maybe regardless of personnel. Plus let's say we land D12, Horf would battling for boards with the best rebounder since Big Ben. I'll pass.

Come up with a more reasonable bet.

It is only on point per game. Boards aren't part of it. I'm not giving anyone a 30% head start on rebounding.

If you won't stand behind 70% production, you shouldn't be claiming they are equals, IMO. I think the bet is not only reasonable, it is incredibly generous.

[PSSSHHHRRR87]

[Admin]

Okay first the OJ Mayo stuff and now the Karl Malone stuff I'm really starting to wonder if Leadership isn't good ole Joker / NBASoup as those were his big arguing points as well. Was the old uneducated sounding Joker / NBASoup a rouse?

[Admin]

"I was wrong. Horford is no Karl Malone. But he is our Hawk. Go Al! [AHF wins]"

This may be the most aggressive thing I've ever seen AHF do on here. And I can't help but do the Mortal Combat voice when I read [AHF wins]

[AHF]

This may be the most aggressive thing I've ever seen AHF do on here. And I can't help but do the Mortal Combat voice when I read [AHF wins]

Maybe I should take that down, because I am not trying to be overly aggressive. (I have actually done several signature bets over the years).

If someone tells me that Player X is a scorer every bit as good as Kareem, MJ, Malone, Kobe, etc. then I consider it a very low bar to produce at 70% of the level that the "equivalent" player produces. I don't know how you make an argument with a straight face that two guys are functional equivalent when:

* one player has scored 5,345 points through his first 6 seasons at a .571 career ts% while

* the other scored 12,498 points through his first 6 seasons and shot at a .577 career ts%

* and you aren't willing to commit to even 70% of the same age production for a team that will feature your guy as the long-term veteran leader next year

I know that Leadership and I will have disagreements on how to assess scoring ability (for example, his value on mid-range jump shots seems to be at odds with mine) and that the simplest way to cut through the debate was to either stand behind the convictions or don't. I am very confident that Horford won't produce like Malone which is why I wasn't asking for equivalent production on a pace-adjusted basis. I would think that would be the place most people would start to try to assess whether there is true equivalency. To that end, I tried to fashion an equivalency test that was so slanted in Leadership's favor that I was spotting him a 30% margin for a player who is supposed to be a mirror image equivalent in terms of scoring ability. I also wrote the proposed signature lines in a way that neither party would be embarrassed or have a truly negative message to try to avoid any real deterrent. (It wasn't a "pick your opponent's avatar" term or anything).

Maybe I need to just let it go.

Or see if he will step up.

[NBASupes]

Maybe I should take that down, because I am not trying to be overly aggressive. (I have actually done several signature bets over the years).

If someone tells me that Player X is a scorer every bit as good as Kareem, MJ, Malone, Kobe, etc. then I consider it a very low bar to produce at 70% of the level that the "equivalent" player produces. I don't know how you make an argument with a straight face that two guys are functional equivalent when:

* one player has scored 5,345 points through his first 6 seasons at a .571 career ts% while

* the other scored 12,498 points through his first 6 seasons and shot at a .577 career ts%

* and you aren't willing to commit to even 70% of the same age production for a team that will feature your guy as the long-term veteran leader next year

I know that Leadership and I will have disagreements on how to assess scoring ability (for example, his value on mid-range jump shots seems to be at odds with mine) and that the simplest way to cut through the debate was to either stand behind the convictions or don't. I am very confident that Horford won't produce like Malone which is why I wasn't asking for equivalent production on a pace-adjusted basis. I would think that would be the place most people would start to try to assess whether there is true equivalency. To that end, I tried to fashion an equivalency test that was so slanted in Leadership's favor that I was spotting him a 30% margin for a player who is supposed to be a mirror image equivalent in terms of scoring ability. I also wrote the proposed signature lines in a way that neither party would be embarrassed or have a truly negative message to try to avoid any real deterrent. (It wasn't a "pick your opponent's avatar" term or anything).

Maybe I need to just let it go.

Or see if he will step up.

I am 100% sure Al will never get to match Malone in terms of scoring contributions. He is way too far behind and has way too far to go. I don't even think it is in his best interest to try to score as many points regardless of the pace and style of play.

[Admin]

Maybe I should take that down, because I am not trying to be overly aggressive. (I have actually done several signature bets over the years).

If someone tells me that Player X is a scorer every bit as good as Kareem, MJ, Malone, Kobe, etc. then I consider it a very low bar to produce at 70% of the level that the "equivalent" player produces. I don't know how you make an argument with a straight face that two guys are functional equivalent when:

* one player has scored 5,345 points through his first 6 seasons at a .571 career ts% while

* the other scored 12,498 points through his first 6 seasons and shot at a .577 career ts%

* and you aren't willing to commit to even 70% of the same age production for a team that will feature your guy as the long-term veteran leader next year

I know that Leadership and I will have disagreements on how to assess scoring ability (for example, his value on mid-range jump shots seems to be at odds with mine) and that the simplest way to cut through the debate was to either stand behind the convictions or don't. I am very confident that Horford won't produce like Malone which is why I wasn't asking for equivalent production on a pace-adjusted basis. I would think that would be the place most people would start to try to assess whether there is true equivalency. To that end, I tried to fashion an equivalency test that was so slanted in Leadership's favor that I was spotting him a 30% margin for a player who is supposed to be a mirror image equivalent in terms of scoring ability. I also wrote the proposed signature lines in a way that neither party would be embarrassed or have a truly negative message to try to avoid any real deterrent. (It wasn't a "pick your opponent's avatar" term or anything).

Maybe I need to just let it go.

Or see if he will step up.

Nah I think it's hilarious. It's like watching someone 'Break Amish' and go from drinking their milk warm to putting ice in it and just chugging it. That's hardcore Amish right there and you're hardcore AHF right here!

[NBASupes]

Malone averaged more ppg than Horford's career high every season from his age 23 to 39 seasons. This included seasons where Stockton was not on the team or was a limited reserve on the team. I know that John Stockton is solely responsible for his rebounding as well but Malone averaged more rebounds per game than Hoford's career high from age 24 - 31. He averaged more steals per game than Horford's career high from age 22 - 35. He exceeded Horford's career high in assists every year for the last 12 years of his career.

For advanced metrics, Malone had higher Win Shares than Horford's career high every season (except when he missed 1/2 the season in 98-99) from age 25 to 37. WS/48 was better than Hoford's career high every season (including 98-99). For PER, Malone matched or exceeded Horford's career high every season from age 24 - 39. Even Horford's best advanced metric (TS%) isn't as good as Malone's.

If you go to the playoff numbers, the difference is even starker. Malone averaged more than 20 ppg in the playoffs every season from age 22 - 38. Horford's career high is 16.7. Horford's average rpg in the playoffs is 8.7 with a median rpg of 8.9. Malone averaged 10.7 rpg with a median of 10.4.

Horford has put up about 80% of the production that Malone did. Thus, poor man's Malone. If you imagine that he could do dramatically better in a different system then come back to me when he has done it on the court.

Next season our age 27 Al would need to put up 29.7 ppg and 13.3 rpg in the playoffs to match an age 27 Malone and put up 29.0 ppg and 11.0 rpg to match his regular season. Anyone holding their breath on this happening is going to die of asphyxiation and suffocate (or at least pass out and resume breathing when they no longer are voluntarily waiting on Al's 29/11 season).

You are a lawyer correct? Why are you giving me this flawed basis on this comparison?

[*]You did not answer the question. The question was, what could Karl Malone do, that Al Horford couldn’t do? You sidestepped it like you were Walter Payton.

[*]Horford was incorrectly positioned at C instead of PF and unlike Malone, he had to play the position he was not suited for. He didn’t have a 7’4 Mark Eaton or a 6’11 Thurl Bailey to battle for boards. He had 6’8 tweener Josh Smith.

[*]John Stockton was drafted one year before Malone and he started the 2^nd half of the season. He was never in a true reserve role with Malone. Stockton is sorely responsible for most of his good passes for PnP, his angles on PnR, and his amazing entry passes which most of Atlanta’s roster seem to struggle doing aside from Smoove and Bibby.

[*]Comparing stats is flawed because of the pace. PER does a decent job of changing stats based on the PER like WS but the PER rewards rebounding and scoring at a great clip. Therefore it doesn’t really explain what I am talking about in reference to Horford compared to Malone.

[*]Rebounding, you mentioned rebounding. This is the one area where pace even dropped seems where Malone has an edge except you did not take into account one key stat. Offensive rebounds. While Malone had guys with great size who were always battling for boards with him, Hoford had Josh Smith who routinely found his way to the perimeter with no defensive attention his direction whatsoever and caused Al to battle 1on2 for boards. Over his career. He still did an amazing job as he 2.6 to Malone’s 2.4. If that is not amazing, I do not know what is. DRB, Malone is averaging 7.7 to Horf 7.0. Big difference considering the pace, I think not.

[*]Assists and Steals are inflated by pace.

[*]Different role, different personnel, and different position. That’s why I cannot the playoff analysis seriously. Denny Green has a 30 PER in the NBA Finals v. Miami. Do you really think he is a 3o PER player. He has been cut by San Antonio twice.

[*]WS can be attributing the personnel. Sorry but Smith/Horford with Teague doesn’t equal Malone/Eaton with Stockton. That’s the problem with your theory is it is not a stat theory. I am talking about simply skill-set and ability. PER, WS, are all volume stats. Even TS can be flawed depending on the personnel. I went through this when looking at Dorell Wright’s numbers recently.

[*]You say 80% of his numbers. When I told you he has never had the personnel. We have rarely featured Horford till this year and we still lacked the personnel. So looking at PPG, TS, efficiency is flawed because one can play his natural position which is PF, plays with a true centers with size, and has an elite playmaker PG. The other has to play center next to an undersized PF and play with average combo guards who have no business starting on a team constructed like ours. The only thing we can truly compare is rebounding, assists, steals, skill-set, and athletic ability.

[*]We aren’t getting 27PPG from Al or any movement PF outside of prime Amare in this generation. We just aren’t.

[*]He is why they are comparable. Similar rebounders. Always in the top 10, usually around 6-10. Both are excellent at running the court. Both are elite at movement. Both have elite mid range jumpers. Both have excellent speed for position. Both are fundamentally sound defenders. Both are not defensive anchors. Both have trouble creating their own offense. Both tend to be versatile.

[*]Where they differ is, Malone is a more fluid, stronger, and confident player than Horford. Horford is a more intelligent, willing to do the little things, and he is more of a winner mentality wise than Malone. I think Coach Donovan did a hell of a job with Horford. Both are tough minded and both give there all and rarely miss many games and that’s more amazing for Horf since he has to bang with centers every game.

[*]Let’s play the numbers game just for fun. Karl’s average usage is at 29.4 while Al’s is at 18.4. Al’s eFG for his career is at .539 while Karl’s at .518. Al is a more effective scorer and takes less bad shots than Karl. While Karl’s TOV% would go up with usage, Al’s trend is more usage, better numbers which says Al makes smarter decisions on the ball than Karl’s. While Karl has a steals% adv, Al has the Blocks% adv. That could be more so to Mark Eaton being an anchor or Ostertag size than Malone’s ability. Horf had Smith but Smith is not an anchor.

[*]When it comes to stats, outside of PPG and TS which can be affected by role, system, and personnel, Al and Malone are near equals in most career categories.

[*]Sorry but where is the 80% of less production you are talking about. Once you take pace, personnel, system, and position into account, they mark out as the same types with minor differences.

[mattlanta]

If the Hawks get rid of Horford and keep Smith, I'm gonna do something really outrageous. Like... Become a Bobcats fan or something like that. I don't know yet but I hope we never find out.

[capstone21]

If the Hawks get rid of Horford and keep Smith, I'm gonna do something really outrageous. Like... Become a Bobcats fan or something like that. I don't know yet but I hope we never find out.

Its not going to happen