Merged: Discussion on Tanking

[AHF]

The same as CP3 # 1 PG and Deron #2 PG going after Marvin Williams. The top five picks outside of Rose could have gone anywhere. Miami had Wade and needed a big. Of course most mocks and projections was Beasely.

Basically every mock and projection had Beasely at #1 or #2. That draft was projected like the Oden / Durant draft. Some debate about which of those to take but a clear 1-2 and then the rest. I imagine the ratio of projections and mocks with Rose / Beasley at 1-2 outnumber the ones without that by a 10:1 ratio.

[MaceCase]

The same as CP3 # 1 PG and Deron #2 PG going after Marvin Williams. The top five picks outside of Rose could have gone anywhere. Miami had Wade and needed a big. Of course most mocks and projections was Beasely.

Rose and Beasley were consensus 1A and 1B much in the same as Durant and Oden. Miami sure would of selected Rose had they the 1st overall or Chicago passed on him regardless of already having Wade. Mayo was actually heavily worked out by the Heat and was preffered by Wade but again, there was no way Beasley was dropping below 2 that year.

Goddammit, AHF! Another ninja post!

Edited June 20, 2013 by MaceCase

[AHF]

Looks like simul-posted the same thing, MaceCase.

[Buzzard]

Smart management is very important but you gotta have a lot of luck to actually get the players that you've extensively scouted. I think you've been ignoring that point that Buzzard was making. You can have the best scouting if Durant, Westbrook, Harden, etc but if you get unlucky in the lottery and another team jumps you and take those guys then you're screwed. That's why there's a lot more to tanking than being smart and doing good scouting. There's quite a bit of luck that goes into it as well.

Bingo! Its mind boggling to me that people do not see how everything lined up right for OKC to get not one but two lottery pick franchise players on successive drafts. That kind of thing happens maybe once every ten years at the most. And I don't want to wait ten years.

[AHF]

Let's not put on blinders with our "FA rules" plan either. There is a long list of Larry Hughes free agents who not only bust like bad lottery picks but who cost you a heck of a lot more money. Signing the B level free agents puts you at serious risk of spending all your cash on Larry Hughes, Rashard Lewis, Hedo Turkoglu, Gilbert Arenas, Antawn Jamison, Eric Dampier, Kenyon Martin, Joe Johnson, Amare Stoudamire, Vin Baker, Tyrus Thomas, Corey Maggette, Eddy Curry, Mehmet Okur, Chris Kaman, Ben Gordon, Jose Calderon, Stephen Jackson, Charlie Villanueva, Ben Wallace, etc. etc. FA busts. I could do a much longer list than that on FA busts (including the most overpaid player in Hawks history) or an equally long list of trade busts (including Danny #*$&ing Manning).

There is risk and reward with FA, trading, and drafting. You get the best upside with drafting. From a talent perspective, drafting is also the highest risk but it is the lowest risk from a cap management perspective.

Nobody is pretending that drafting is risk free but some people seem to be pretending like there isn't substantial risk of downside with FA scenarios -- just like they keep citing the fact that the Lakers have never tanked but ignore the fact that the Lakers have never settled for a bunch of B level free agents either.

[Admin]

No disagreement. But you can't get lucky in the lottery if you don't play and all those championship teams had their lottery luck stud except the Detroit Pistons (the 1 time champion Pistons, the 2 time champion Pistons had their lottery luck).

No disagreement there but I'm not sure I am ready to trade Horford and to a lesser degree Teague / Lou in order to have a team bad enough to get deep into the lottery to get the best shot at landing a transcendent player. I don't like being stuck in mediocrity either but I just don't think I can get my head around trading my favorite player.

[Admin]

Let's not put on blinders with our "FA rules" plan either. There is a long list of Larry Hughes free agents who not only bust like bad lottery picks but who cost you a heck of a lot more money. Signing the B level free agents puts you at serious risk of spending all your cash on Larry Hughes, Rashard Lewis, Hedo Turkoglu, Gilbert Arenas, Antawn Jamison, Eric Dampier, Kenyon Martin, Joe Johnson, Amare Stoudamire, Vin Baker, Tyrus Thomas, Corey Maggette, Eddy Curry, Mehmet Okur, Chris Kaman, Ben Gordon, Jose Calderon, Stephen Jackson, Charlie Villanueva, Ben Wallace, etc. etc. FA busts. I could do a much longer list than that on FA busts (including the most overpaid player in Hawks history) or an equally long list of trade busts (including Danny #*$&ing Manning).

There is risk and reward with FA, trading, and drafting. You get the best upside with drafting. From a talent perspective, drafting is also the highest risk but it is the lowest risk from a cap management perspective.

Nobody is pretending that drafting is risk free but some people seem to be pretending like there isn't substantial risk of downside with FA scenarios -- just like they keep citing the fact that the Lakers have never tanked but ignore the fact that the Lakers have never settled for a bunch of B level free agents either.

I kinda like the Rockets strategy of building up a ton of assets with smart picks that you get in the teens and then flipping those assets for star players and then making smart decisions in free agency. They've only had 1 top 10 pick since 2002 and that was Rudy Gay, whom they traded on draft night for Battier (which was a mistake).

[AHF]

No disagreement there but I'm not sure I am ready to trade Horford and to a lesser degree Teague / Lou in order to have a team bad enough to get deep into the lottery to get the best shot at landing a transcendent player. I don't like being stuck in mediocrity either but I just don't think I can get my head around trading my favorite player.

My plan is to send Horford to the islands for the year with a big man coach and the young lady from your avatar while he "rehabs." The Hawks will support him 100% and he won't offer cryptic promises to return like Derrick Rose.

[Buzzard]

Let's not put on blinders with our "FA rules" plan either. There is a long list of Larry Hughes free agents who not only bust like bad lottery picks but who cost you a heck of a lot more money. Signing the B level free agents puts you at serious risk of spending all your cash on Larry Hughes, Rashard Lewis, Hedo Turkoglu, Gilbert Arenas, Antawn Jamison, Eric Dampier, Kenyon Martin, Joe Johnson, Amare Stoudamire, Vin Baker, Tyrus Thomas, Corey Maggette, Eddy Curry, Mehmet Okur, Chris Kaman, Ben Gordon, Jose Calderon, Stephen Jackson, Charlie Villanueva, Ben Wallace, etc. etc. FA busts. I could do a much longer list than that on FA busts (including the most overpaid player in Hawks history) or an equally long list of trade busts (including Danny #*$&ing Manning).

There is risk and reward with FA, trading, and drafting. You get the best upside with drafting. From a talent perspective, drafting is also the highest risk but it is the lowest risk from a cap management perspective.

Nobody is pretending that drafting is risk free but some people seem to be pretending like there isn't substantial risk of downside with FA scenarios -- just like they keep citing the fact that the Lakers have never tanked but ignore the fact that the Lakers have never settled for a bunch of B level free agents either.

I agree with you 100%. I just prefer free agents because you not only have their college pedigree but you also have 3,4, and 5 years worth of NBA playing to help you make a decision.

Now if we can move Josh or our two picks to get higher up in this years or next years draft, I am all for it. But I prefer to attack with a dbl edged sword using FA and the draft. Or a triple, using FA, draft, and trades.

Putting all your eggs in the lottery basket not only requires some luck but I think I have shown it to take quite a bit of time. OKC, 4 years, Memphis 4 years and they were the quicker turn arounds.

[Admin]

My plan is to send Horford to the islands for the year with a big man coach and the young lady from your avatar while he "rehabs." The Hawks will support him 100% and he won't offer cryptic promises to return like Derrick Rose.

Haha the only way I can get behind that is if I get to go with him and be her personal butler!

[Admin]

I agree with you 100%. I just prefer free agents because you not only have their college pedigree but you also have 3,4, and 5 years worth of NBA playing to help you make a decision.

Now if we can move Josh or our two picks to get higher up in this years or next years draft, I am all for it. But I prefer to attack with a dbl edged sword using FA and the draft. Or a triple, using FA, draft, and trades.

Putting all your eggs in the lottery basket not only requires some luck but I think I have shown it to take quite a bit of time. OKC, 4 years, Memphis 4 years and they were the quicker turn arounds.

We can't trade Josh for any draft picks in this years draft since free agency hasn't started yet.

[AHF]

You should never have all your eggs in one basket. Boston became champions by sucking it up to get draft assets and then trading many of them for KG and Allen.

Maybe it would be helpful to review examples of teams that haven't gotten a star from the draft that was a finals MVP type of talent who actually brought home a ring that we should be looking towards for guidance on a Plan B -- Al Jefferson, Tyreke Evans, etc. type of approach.

[TheNorthCydeRises]

Bingo! Its mind boggling to me that people do not see how everything lined up right for OKC to get not one but two lottery pick franchise players on successive drafts. That kind of thing happens maybe once every ten years at the most. And I don't want to wait ten years.

Honestly, they potentially got 3, if you include James Harden.

Getting 3 guys in 3 consecutive drafts who are All-NBA caliber players is a thing that I'll say has NEVER happened. They got a Hall of Fame guy, and two guys who are going to make multiple All-Star teams. And it will be interesting to see how long Westbrook will continue to want to stay in OKC, when they blame him for everything. His injury may have been the best thing to happen to him, because it proved just how important he is to that franchise.

The mistake the Hawks made, outside of not drafting Paul or Deron in 2005, or even Rudy Gay in 2006, is that they didn't flip one of those frontline players in 2009. We had too many guys doing the same thing, instead of a high level specialist who can win games in other ways. The fact that we couldn't flip Marvin and then Smith for better players, or a better fitting player, is the most disappointing thing about potentially seeing both of them go. And the JJ trade was simply a debacle, if we fail to get Howard or Paul.

At least OKC flipped Harden for some assets they could use. We didn't even try to flip one of our young players for parts that fit better.

[Admin]

Honestly, they potentially got 3, if you include James Harden.

Getting 3 guys in 3 consecutive drafts who are All-NBA caliber players is a thing that I'll say has NEVER happened. They got a Hall of Fame guy, and two guys who are going to make multiple All-Star teams. And it will be interesting to see how long Westbrook will continue to want to stay in OKC, when they blame him for everything. His injury may have been the best thing to happen to him, because it proved just how important he is to that franchise.

The mistake the Hawks made, outside of not drafting Paul or Deron in 2005, or even Rudy Gay in 2006, is that they didn't flip one of those frontline players in 2009. We had too many guys doing the same thing, instead of a high level specialist who can win games in other ways. The fact that we couldn't flip Marvin and then Smith for better players, or a better fitting player, is the most disappointing thing about potentially seeing both of them go. And the JJ trade was simply a debacle, if we fail to get Howard or Paul.

At least OKC flipped Harden for some assets they could use. We didn't even try to flip one of our young players for parts that fit better.

I know you are JJ's biggest fan and supporter around here, or at least tied with Sothron, but getting cap relief from that enormous contract will keep it from being a debacle no matter which free agents we get. I mean do you realize that for the next 3 years we would have had a declining JJ making 33% or more of our salary cap? That's just insane and the fact that we don't have that type of enormous restraint allows us to re-tool the roster in any way that Ferry wants. I think that everyone here should be naming their next born children after the man for that trade.

[Guest Zone]

I'd be completely cool with a rebuild after watching the Hawks continuously not amount to anything in the playoffs.

Ferry hasn't shown the ineptitude of the past gm's. Not trading Josh Smith for garbage deals from Brooklyn and Milwaukee showed me that. We'd have a competent general manager starting off a rebuild with plenty of cap space while not having to worry about immovable contracts and unwanted players. Plenty of current "tanking" teams would love to be in that position.

If we don't land a superstar, it should definitely be considered. Especially with the talented draft class coming next year. The Hawks wouldn't necessarily have to draft in the top 5 to get potential talent. We'll see what Ferry ends up doing.

[Buzzard]

Maybe it would be helpful to review examples of teams that haven't gotten a star from the draft that was a finals MVP type of talent who actually brought home a ring that we should be looking towards for guidance on a Plan B -- Al Jefferson, Tyreke Evans, etc. type of approach.

You are forgetting that we already have Al ( a lottery pick, one time all star so far ) who could blow up on any given night for 20 and 10 if we ever get to the finals with him. Boston drafted Pierce, LA drafted Kobe, Miami drafted Wade. One lottery player each and everything else was piecemeal-ed together.

Kobe may not have been a lottery pick

Edited June 20, 2013 by Buzzard

[MaceCase]

I know you are JJ's biggest fan and supporter around here, or at least tied with Sothron, but getting cap relief from that enormous contract will keep it from being a debacle no matter which free agents we get. I mean do you realize that for the next 3 years we would have had a declining JJ making 33% or more of our salary cap? That's just insane and the fact that we don't have that type of enormous restraint allows us to re-tool the roster in any way that Ferry wants. I think that everyone here should be naming their next born children after the man for that trade.

No, because we know for absolute fact that Ferry jumped on the very first deal that was offered for him and was raped on it because we couldn't even walk away with Jordan Craw....I mean Marshon Brooks. He could of waited to the deadline and gotten more for his 6 time All Star like Pau Gasol or just done the Marvin deal for Devin and watched Joe lead us to the ECF especially in a year that Rose and Rondo were injured and as the years went on his deal would of only become easier to move for more valuable longer contracts that other teams just weren't interested in for any particular reason.

Did I cover the entire North argument?

[Buzzard]

Honestly, they potentially got 3, if you include James Harden.

Getting 3 guys in 3 consecutive drafts who are All-NBA caliber players is a thing that I'll say has NEVER happened. They got a Hall of Fame guy, and two guys who are going to make multiple All-Star teams. And it will be interesting to see how long Westbrook will continue to want to stay in OKC, when they blame him for everything. His injury may have been the best thing to happen to him, because it proved just how important he is to that franchise.

The mistake the Hawks made, outside of not drafting Paul or Deron in 2005, or even Rudy Gay in 2006, is that they didn't flip one of those frontline players in 2009. We had too many guys doing the same thing, instead of a high level specialist who can win games in other ways. The fact that we couldn't flip Marvin and then Smith for better players, or a better fitting player, is the most disappointing thing about potentially seeing both of them go. And the JJ trade was simply a debacle, if we fail to get Howard or Paul.

At least OKC flipped Harden for some assets they could use. We didn't even try to flip one of our young players for parts that fit better.

Harden is easier to flip than JJ since his max is half what JJ's was when we traded him. We held on to Marvin, Childress, and Josh way to long. We should have known they were not franchise type talent and moved all three of them while the iron was hot and BEFORE their rookie contracts were up.

But that is really on BK and we can't change any of it. BK thought he did the right thing by drafting them and holding onto them. History of their ( our ) lack of success has proven him wrong on all accounts.

[Guest]

Let's not put on blinders with our "FA rules" plan either. There is a long list of Larry Hughes free agents who not only bust like bad lottery picks but who cost you a heck of a lot more money. Signing the B level free agents puts you at serious risk of spending all your cash on Larry Hughes, Rashard Lewis, Hedo Turkoglu, Gilbert Arenas, Antawn Jamison, Eric Dampier, Kenyon Martin, Joe Johnson, Amare Stoudamire, Vin Baker, Tyrus Thomas, Corey Maggette, Eddy Curry, Mehmet Okur, Chris Kaman, Ben Gordon, Jose Calderon, Stephen Jackson, Charlie Villanueva, Ben Wallace, etc. etc. FA busts. I could do a much longer list than that on FA busts (including the most overpaid player in Hawks history) or an equally long list of trade busts (including Danny #*$&ing Manning). There is risk and reward with FA, trading, and drafting. You get the best upside with drafting. From a talent perspective, drafting is also the highest risk but it is the lowest risk from a cap management perspective. Nobody is pretending that drafting is risk free but some people seem to be pretending like there isn't substantial risk of downside with FA scenarios -- just like they keep citing the fact that the Lakers have never tanked but ignore the fact that the Lakers have never settled for a bunch of B level free agents either.

Nothing wrong with getting B/C level free agents players to fill certain needs when you miss out on A level players. The problem occurs when you pay them A/B level money on long contracts.That is what Ferry must avoid doing. He has to get good value for the money and shorter contracts which makes them more attractive to trade if they don't work/fit.

[Buzzard]

We can't trade Josh for any draft picks in this years draft since free agency hasn't started yet.

That is why I said this years draft ( we can move our picks for that ) or next years draft ( we can move Josh SNT and out picks for that ).