Merged: Discussion on Tanking

[MaceCase]

Harden is easier to flip than JJ since his max is half what JJ's was when we traded him. We held on to Marvin, Childress, and Josh way to long. We should have known they were not franchise type talent and moved all three of them while the iron was hot and BEFORE their rookie contracts were up.

But that is really on BK and we can't change any of it. BK thought he did the right thing by drafting them and holding onto them. History of their ( our ) lack of success has proven him wrong on all accounts.

The fact gets overlooked that those guys didn't prove most of their worth until our first playoff run which just coincided with them also all being free agents after so in essence he did or better yet Sund did strike while the iron was hot by choosing to capitalize on the playoff success. Plenty on here are arguing now against sliding back into the lottery so I can't imagine what the argument could be for trading more of those guys after Shelden before they proved that any could even make it to the playoffs. If we are talking about while into the beginnings of their new contracts then we have to consider the cap constraints that the team was under after reupping the core so deals for lesser players on larger contracts were out the question, we weren't getting any stars despite numerous offerings and I assure you that this board wasn't settling for any lateral package that wasn't "worthy" of our guy's potential.

[Buzzard]

Nothing wrong with getting B/C level free agents players to fill certain needs when you miss out on A level players. The problem occurs when you pay them A/B level money on long contracts.That is what Ferry must avoid doing. He has to get good value for the money and shorter contracts which makes them more attractive to trade if they don't work/fit.

I am not worried about Ferry doing the right thing. He is a numbers guy. There are more quality FA's ( A,B, and C level ) than cap space free teams this year. And rights teams are concerned about the luxury tax more now than ever.

[Buzzard]

The fact gets overlooked that those guys didn't prove most of their worth until our first playoff run which just coincided with them also all being free agents after so in essence he did or better yet Sund did strike while the iron was hot by choosing to capitalize on the playoff success. Plenty on here are arguing now against sliding back into the lottery so I can't imagine what the argument could be for trading more of those guys after Shelden before they proved that any could even make it to the playoffs. If we are talking about while into the beginnings of their new contracts then we have to consider the cap constraints that the team was under after reupping the core so deals for lesser players on larger contracts were out the question, we weren't getting any stars despite numerous offerings and I assure you that this board wasn't settling for any lateral package that wasn't "worthy" of our guy's potential.

Its a three year rule Mace. Breakout by then or chances are 90% that your breakout is not going to happen. Josh, Marvin, Childress should have been moved and no one should know our own players ceiling better than our GM and coach.

[MaceCase]

Its a three year rule Mace. Breakout by then or chances are 90% that your breakout is not going to happen. Josh, Marvin, Childress should have been moved and no one should know our own players ceiling better than our GM and coach.

This is what I'm not understanding.....You are against the team currently going back to the lottery yet you are now arguing that our previous lotto picks should have been moved after 3 years before they actually proved anything.....What kind of return do you think the team would of gotten for those guys after their 3rd years and how do you not think that would have prolonged our already 9 year long playoff draught at the time?

I'm seeing zero consistency in these arguments.

[Buzzard]

This is what I'm not understanding.....You are against the team currently going back to the lottery yet you are now arguing that our previous lotto picks should have been moved after 3 years before they actually proved anything.....What kind of return do you think the team would of gotten for those guys after their 3rd years and how do you not think that would have prolonged our already 9 year long playoff draught at the time?

I'm seeing zero consistency in these arguments.

I never said after three but there is a pretty good rule of thumb that a player shows his true upside no later than his 3rd year. What I said is they should have been moved while the iron was still hot and before their first contract was up.

That could have been right after the draft for all I care. And the thought that a GM/VP does not know what a players real talent is after seeing him in practice and play for one, two, three years only fortifies my belief that BK was clueless when it came to evaluating talent at any level.

Edited June 20, 2013 by Buzzard

[MaceCase]

I never said after three but there is a pretty good rule of thumb that a player shows his true upside no later than his 3rd year. What I said is they should have been moved while the iron was still hot and before their first contract was up.

That could have been right after the draft for all I care. And the thought that a GM/VP does not know what a players real talent is after seeing him in practice and play for one, two, three years only fortifies my belief that BK was clueless when it came to evaluating talent at any level.

You said that they should have been moved before their rookie contracts were up......That's 4 years.

They didn't make the playoffs until the last year of the Josh's rookie contracts......the 4th year.

Neither they nor Marvin proved anything until their contract years......the 4th year.

There was no hot iron and if it was it was it only went as far as the Hawks themselves barely squeeking into the playoffs after 9 years were concerned. I already asked the question of what type of return were you expecting for them at that point of their careers seeing as they had very little individual and team success. You know for fact that you aren't getting much in a sign and trade to begin with so what exactly was it that you were expecting for these guys? You saw their market, the Josh's were allowed to set their market and one ended up in Europe with the other getting a last minute "f*** it" deal and Marvin was sitting at home a year later with only Sund calling him up so what would have been a possible return? That team with Bibby and Al peaked at 37 wins in the 3rd and 4th years so for the 40th time, what were the Hawks getting in return that would of not only set them off to 6 playoff berths but actually improved the team beyond that?

[Buzzard]

You said that they should have been moved before their rookie contracts were up......That's 4 years.

They didn't make the playoffs until the last year of the Josh's rookie contracts......the 4th year.

Neither they nor Marvin proved anything until their contract years......the 4th year.

There was no hot iron and if it was it was it only went as far as the Hawks themselves barely squeeking into the playoffs after 9 years were concerned. I already asked the question of what type of return were you expecting for them at that point of their careers seeing as they had very little individual and team success. You know for fact that you aren't getting much in a sign and trade to begin with so what exactly was it that you were expecting for these guys? You saw their market, the Josh's were allowed to set their market and one ended up in Europe with the other getting a last minute "f*** it" deal and Marvin was sitting at home a year later with only Sund calling him up so what would have been a possible return? That team with Bibby and Al peaked at 37 wins in the 3rd and 4th years so for the 40th time, what were the Hawks getting in return that would of not only set them off to 6 playoff berths but actually improved the team beyond that?

When we made the playoffs has nothing to do with the hot Iron. The hot iron was the draft hype since they were both lottery picks. We were not the only team that would have selected Marvin or Childress had we passed on them. I do not think GMs looked at both of them as a bust right after we drafted them.

By their 3rd year it was probably to late to get anything close to equal value for any of BKs picks at that time; except Josh Smith.

Edited June 20, 2013 by Buzzard

[MaceCase]

Harden is easier to flip than JJ since his max is half what JJ's was when we traded him. We held on to Marvin, Childress, and Josh way to long. We should have known they were not franchise type talent and moved all three of them while the iron was hot and BEFORE their rookie contracts were up.

But that is really on BK and we can't change any of it. BK thought he did the right thing by drafting them and holding onto them. History of their ( our ) lack of success has proven him wrong on all accounts.

According to Buzz the Hawks should of had the foresight to move their lotto picks on draft night and before their 3rd year was up before other GM's saw their true value. How this thinking meshes with someone who is deadset against going back to the losing currently will forever be a mystery to me but I'm done with this part of the conversation.

Edited June 20, 2013 by MaceCase

[Buzzard]

You do get that before means before right? It does not mean four lmao. I did not say after four years, you did. What I was referring to is they should not have been around for that contract, much less another one nine years later!

Edited June 20, 2013 by Buzzard

[MaceCase]

But, but, but you NEVER said 3 years or 4 years so before is what again? While they were in the womb?

[Buzzard]

But, but, but you NEVER said 3 years or 4 years so before is what again? While they were in the womb?

Take it with a grain of salt Mace. I say before and you assume four. I say while the iron is hot and you assume our playoff runs.

[MaceCase]

Take it with a grain of salt Mace. I say before and you assume four. I say while the iron is hot and you assume our playoff runs.

Well 4 is the totality of their rookie contract length, there's no way around that maximum amount for a rookie contract.....which you explicitly stated they should of been moved before...... You also stated that year 3 is the dropdead date on determining whether they are franchise pillars so that leaveeeeeeeees.........moving them between when they were drafted and before the end of their 3rd year. Not much leeway there between not only evaluating your own drafted talent's true worth and maintaining positive trade value based on their draft position rather than their actual production. It's not a grain of salt, you just perfectly and methodically painted yourself into a corner and won't admit to it.

[Admin]

That is why I said this years draft ( we can move our picks for that ) or next years draft ( we can move Josh SNT and out picks for that ).

I'm confused as to what you're actually saying here.

I agree with you 100%. I just prefer free agents because you not only have their college pedigree but you also have 3,4, and 5 years worth of NBA playing to help you make a decision. Now if we can move Josh or our two picks to get higher up in this years or next years draft, I am all for it. But I prefer to attack with a dbl edged sword using FA and the draft. Or a triple, using FA, draft, and trades. Putting all your eggs in the lottery basket not only requires some luck but I think I have shown it to take quite a bit of time. OKC, 4 years, Memphis 4 years and they were the quicker turn arounds.

Are you saying move Josh for picks in next years draft AND/OR move our picks this year to move up in this years draft?

I just want to make sure that nobody is under the impression that we can include Josh in any trade for any draft picks in this years draft.

[Buzzard]

moving them between when they were drafted and before the end of their 3rd year. Not much leeway there between not only evaluating your own drafted talent's true worth and maintaining positive trade value based on their draft position rather than their actual production. It's not a grain of salt, you just perfectly and methodically painted yourself into a corner and won't admit to it.

That 3rd year is the drop dead date. Its the outside date Mace. Most all-stars are showing their stuff in their 1st or 2nd year. CP3, Deron, Curry, Melo, etc The list is much longer for good players to adapt to the NBA game quicker than later.

There is no corner here Mace. GMs and scouts evaluate their draft talent just from a slew of college games and a 1/2 dozen workouts. Once you draft them you have close to eight months their first year to evaluate them up close and personal against NBA Vets in preseason, 82 regular season games, plus daily practice.

I am not a GM or scout Mace, but common sense tells me we should have known what we had in Marvin, Childress, and Acie a whole lot sooner than later.

[Admin]

I hate to agree with Mace on generally anything but I think that he's right on this one Buzz.

If you're moving them before their rookie contract is up then that's gotta be before the trading deadline of their 4th year. I don't know how anyone defines "the iron being hot" or however y'all stated it but I'm guessing that means before other GMs realized the type of player that they would become and still had value from their draft position and "potential".

Bottom line for me is that Josh deserved his 2nd contract and was worth the amount that he got. Marvin did not deserve a 2nd contract and neither did Childress. I don't think that either had much value after their 3rd season and maybe not after their 2nd season. Before that I'm not sure how you could trade them as you wouldn't have had time to really evaluate their potential.

[Buzzard]

I'm confused as to what you're actually saying here.

Are you saying move Josh for picks in next years draft AND/OR move our picks this year to move up in this years draft?

I just want to make sure that nobody is under the impression that we can include Josh in any trade for any draft picks in this years draft.

Josh is gone anyway, getting a pick in next years draft for him would be awesome. Move our two picks to move up in this years draft would be awesome. If we moved one of the players we took along with Josh SNT to get something better would be awesome also! I hope that is clear enough. I l want to move up in this years draft if possible and I do like next years draft class much better than this one ( as do most ). I hope I have made myself clear Mace.

If you want to know which I prefer, move our two picks to move up in this years draft, then move Josh in a SNT for a extra pick next year. But if we have to move a 17 or 18 picked player in this years draft to get a similar or better pick in next years draft, sign me up. I like next seasons draft a lot more.

[Admin]

Josh is gone anyway, getting a pick in next years draft for him would be awesome. Move our two picks to move up in this years draft would be awesome. If we moved one of the players we took along with Josh SNT to get something better would be awesome also! I hope that is clear enough. I l want to move up in this years draft if possible and I do like next years draft class much better than this one ( as do most ). I hope I have made myself clear Mace.

If you want to know which I prefer, move our two picks to move up in this years draft, then move Josh in a SNT for a extra pick next year. But if we have to move a 17 or 18 picked player in this years draft to get a similar or better pick in next years draft, sign me up. I like next seasons draft a lot more.

I get what you're saying now. I just want to make it clear to everyone that we cannot make any trades involving Josh until after free agency starts. I want to head off that before people get the wrong idea and start coming up with trades with Josh for draft picks this year and it causes HawksFanatics oversized head to explode.

[AHF]

On drafting 3 All-Stars in a row, I agree that is very unusual but not unprecedented. I found two examples of that among the 3 teams I looked at (Boston, Chicago and Cleveland) with Cleveland actually drafting 4 All-Stars in 3 years (1 or 2 every year) during one 3 year period. Most teams have done some nice runs over 3 or 4 years.

Just looking at Boston, Cleveland, and Chicago I found:

Over 3 years:

Chicago Bulls - Michael Jordan (Hall of Fame); Horace Grant (All-Star); Scottie Pippen (HOF)

Boston Celtics - KC Jones (HOF); Tom Heinsen (HOF); Sam Jones (HOF);

Boston Celtics - Antoine Walker (AS); Chauncey Billups (AS/HOF?); Paul Pierce (HOF)

Cleveland Cavaliers - Charles Oakley (AS - idiotic trade to Chi); Ron Harper (AS); Brad Daugherty (AS); Kevin Johnson (AS)

Over 4 years:

Boston Celtics - Bob Cousey (HOF); Frank Ramsey (HOF); Bill Russell (HOF)

Boston Celtics - Jo Jo White (AS); Dave Cowens (HOF); Paul Westphal (AS)

Boston Celtics - Cedric Maxwell (Finals MVP); Larry Bird (HOF); Kevin McHale (HOF)

I found lot of examples of two All-Stars in 2 years for these teams such as Cleveland's: (Lebron James; Carlos Boozer); (John Johnson; Austin Carr); (Dan Roundfield; Campy Russell); and (Bill Lambier; Mike Mitchell).

Edited June 20, 2013 by AHF

[Admin]

On drafting 3 All-Stars in a row, I agree that is very unusual but not unprecedented. I found two examples of that among the 3 teams I looked at (Boston, Chicago and Cleveland) with Cleveland actually drafting 4 All-Stars in 3 years (1 or 2 every year) during one 3 year period. Most teams have done some nice runs over 3 or 4 years.

Just looking at Boston, Cleveland, and Chicago I found:

Over 3 years:

Chicago Bulls - Michael Jordan (Hall of Fame); Horace Grant (All-Star); Scottie Pippen (HOF)

Boston Celtics - KC Jones (HOF); Tom Heinsen (HOF); Sam Jones (HOF);

Boston Celtics - Antoine Walker (AS); Chauncey Billups (AS/HOF?); Paul Pierce (HOF)

Cleveland Cavaliers - Charles Oakley (AS - idiotic trade to Chi); Ron Harper (AS); Brad Daugherty (AS); Terrell Brandon (AS)

Over 4 years:

Boston Celtics - Bob Cousey (HOF); Frank Ramsey (HOF); Bill Russell (HOF)

Boston Celtics - Jo Jo White (AS); Dave Cowens (HOF); Paul Westphal (AS)

Boston Celtics - Cedric Maxwell (Finals MVP); Larry Bird (HOF); Kevin McHale (HOF)

I found lot of examples of two All-Stars in 2 years for these teams such as Cleveland's: (Lebron James; Carlos Boozer); (John Johnson; Austin Carr); (Dan Roundfield; Campy Russell); and (Bill Lambier; Mike Mitchell).

Are any of those 3-4 year teams during the modern lottery era? I don't know if it makes any difference but I can't remember when the modern lottery system came into place. It would seem that this type of drafting has become significantly less common though so there's got to be some correlation, right?

[AHF]

Are any of those 3-4 year teams during the modern lottery era? I don't know if it makes any difference but I can't remember when the modern lottery system came into place. It would seem that this type of drafting has become significantly less common though so there's got to be some correlation, right?

During the lottery era, the Cavs landed their 4 All-Stars in 3 consecutive years:

Cleveland Cavaliers - 1985 Charles Oakley (AS - idiotic trade to Chi); 1986 Ron Harper (AS); 1986 Brad Daugherty (AS); 1987 Kevin Johnson (AS)

and the Celtics landed their 3 All-Stars in consecutive drafts:

Boston Celtics - 1996 Antoine Walker (AS); 1997 Chauncey Billups (AS/HOF?); 1998 Paul Pierce (HOF)

MJ was one year before the lottery so his 3 in 4 years group doesn't count if that is your cutoff, however I am sure there are more examples, but I am not doing a review of the other 27 or so teams.

Edited June 20, 2013 by AHF