Not a good feeling

[Plainview1981]

First of all, I have confidence in the abilities of Danny Ferry. The new coach and GM come from a good organization.

That being said there are issues with our city and organization:

1. Terrible reputation as a city supporting the local NBA team. Knicks, Lakers, Celtics, etc draw more fans than the Hawks.

2. Ownership reputation over the years after Ted Turner.

3. Im not sure we could draw the top free agent star players to Atlanta if we had Phil Jackson, this organization is bruised from the lack of organiztion from top to bottom.

4. It appears non of the top free agents are insterested in coming to Atlanta. Stars want to win.

I just dont have a good feeling about this offseason (i pray DF proves me 100% wrong). I dont see us doing anything with CP3 or D12. I dont think you win in this league without a true star, of course the Knicks through all kinds of dents into that theory with Carmelo and Stoudemire, and Memphis has a good team without a superstar player.

Guess as a old time Hawk fan Im just a little uneasy about things at this point.

The problem is that nobody wants to tank, but the team cannot draw top FA's either.

If Ferry fails to land Howard or Paul it surely isn't any real doing on his part. But its the consequences of many mistakes paired with a fan base that does not exist.

[Plainview1981]

We were never the frontrunner to get Dwight or Chris in the first place.

What Hawks fans need to do, is just chill and let everything play itself out. All of our talk should be about the draft anyway, not things concerning Dwight and Chris.

The other thing is there are still plenty of very good players out on the market outside of the top 2 guys. Don't let people convince you that we'd be better off if we just go to the bottom of the league and blow everything up. We arguably have a top 20 player in Al Horford right now, so if we don't land the big stars, everything we should be doing right now should be to maximize HIS star potential.

The thing that others on this forum aren't telling you, is that a guy like Lebron James is in his prime. As long as he's in this conference, he's going to be the guy that the Hawks will have to go through. So what do we do? Wait 5, 6, 7 years for his decline, and then hope to beat the Heat, or whatever team he's on? Or do we construct the best team possible to battle him while a guy like Al Horford is in his prime?

At the very least, the Hawks can construct a team RIGHT NOW that can challenge for the 2nd seed in the East, and only be a sprained ankle or a muscle pull away from beating Miami in the coming seasons.

This "doom and gloom" that is around some of these fans, is ridiculous. We have potentially 35 million in cap space, two 1st round draft picks, a top 20 player in the league to build around, and probably the best assistant coach in the entire league to work with next year. If the Hawks can't construct at least a top 3 team NEXT YEAR with these assets, it's never going to happen anyway.

Who cares about the 18th or 19th pick anyway?

I mean, Ferry and those guys will do their job, but as a fan I don't see anything to get excited about there.

[Plainview1981]

So if we fail at getting Paul and/or Howard, let's build this thing around Horford.

Eh... That's not going to cut it.

[TheFuzz]

I'm not against tanking for a year or two BUT we already have a 27 year old Al Horford and the chances of picking up another Horford in the draft are less than we'd like. Obviously, having a "superstar" easily puts you into a position to win a chip, but the reality is there aren't many superstars out there and they don't come along often, at least in my book.

I'm a firm believer that a well-coached, efficient team that plays top 5 defense and offense with some depth can win a championship with 4 or so all-star level talents. They don't need to be superstars, just allstars. It does take a very well constructed team, size and some luck but I think it can be done. Hell, we saw an offensively anemic Pacers squad take the superstar-laden Heat to 7 games with no bench and a lack of scoring. We are witnessing a Spurs squad without a true superstar (as much as I love Tony Parker, I don't quite consider him a superstar, Ginobili has lost quite a few steps, and Duncan isn't the offensive force he once was at the age of 50) take the Heat to the brink again, and I think they will win.

We already have one high-end (and well-rounded) finisher in Horford. A team with 4 Horford-level players can win a ship. He needs a stud PG and a stud C, but I think it could happen. No, the answer is not Al Jefferson. He doesn't play any defense. He would fit ok on, say, the Celtics right now but not next to Horford.

Having said that, FA isn't giving us any other options if we miss out on the superstars. Teague and Evans have some talent but they're not Horford level IMO. On top of that, Horford gets in the way of a tank pretty hardcore. So I don't know.

[Plainview1981]

Horford is a decent player, but its beyond moronic to try and build a team around him. You can't expect him to carry or lead the way against the top teams in the league. My belief is that this past year was about as good as he can play.

[yungsta]

Horford isnt someone you build around at all. He is a guy who can play a chris bosh role on a contender. He is not a guy you rely on to create his own offense or a guy you give the ball to when you need a score. He is a guy who will knock down the open jumpers off of pick and roll plays or defensive breakdowns and he will get you the occasional 20-25 point games when hes feeling it, and he will make some hustle plays. That is horford. He is a 3rd option.

You cant win a championship with a bunch of 3rd options. We have all seen it b4. A team who doesnt have a star but play team ball win 50+ games in the regular season then wilt fast in the playoffs because they dont have a go to guy to score when the defensive intensity rises and the pressure is on.

you dont need an all star team to win a championship but you still need that ALL NBA MVP caliber player who can preform big on the big stage in high pressure situations against elite teams.

Of course we never had that. We had fake stars who stick their chest out and will give you those 30 point games when they are playing the bobcats,pistons, and wizards. But when the Big boy heat or whatever elite team come to town all of a sudden they play like kittens.

[Guest Walter]

Ding...ding...winner, winner chicken dinner.

It works the other way also.Who wouldn't have thought Nash, Kobe, Artest, Gasol, Howard would have been so awful? Yes. Once D'Antoni was hired it may have been easier to see, but that is an immensely talented 5. You can't look on paper and decide these things. Try eke was a 20/5/5 player his rookie yr. I have no problem with himas part of any plan B.W

[NekiEcko]

So what should we do then, Hotlanta, W and anybody else who wants to answer?

a) built a team of tier 3 - 4 players, continued go to the playoffs then get ousted in the 1st or 2nd round (same thing every year, being called Team Treadmill)

b) Rebuilt from the ground up with new players and do "player development", sure we wont go to the playoffs but we will have lottery picks and be built for the future

c) Combined the two

d) None of the Above

e) ___________________(fill in your own answer)

Right now, it has to be one or the other. Nobody knew that Paul George would blow up like that but Pacers took care of him and develop him right and now, he is close to be a superstar in this league. That is what Hawks should do, they should gather assets while develop all of the players they have and bring players that will fix to a system not go against it.

Edited June 20, 2013 by NekiEcko

[Peoriabird]

This fan base is nuts! Championship or Bust? Retarded. So Oklahoma City and Memphis should disband since they won't win a championship? Clippers too? Indy? There is nothing wrong with being a very good team awaiting your big break like the Spurs did all those 1st and 2nd round exit years.

[Plainview1981]

This fan base is nuts! Championship or Bust? Retarded. So Oklahoma City and Memphis should disband since they won't win a championship? Clippers too? Indy? There is nothing wrong with being a very good team awaiting your big break like the Spurs did all those 1st and 2nd round exit years.

Did you forget that we tried this before?

It didn't work.

The Thunder were in the finals one year ago and probably would have been this year if they had stayed healthy. It's not comparable. The Clippers have Paul....

Memphis is basically the same as we were. Their run will end up being pointless just like the Bibby, Joe, Josh and Al team turned out to be pointless.

Edited June 20, 2013 by Hotlanta1981

[Plainview1981]

So what should we do then, Hotlanta, W and anybody else who wants to answer?

a) built a team of tier 3 - 4 players, continued go to the playoffs then get ousted in the 1st or 2nd round (same thing every year, being called Team Treadmill)

b) Rebuilt from the ground up with new players and do "player development", sure we wont go to the playoffs but we will have lottery picks and be built for the future

c) Combined the two

d) None of the Above

e) ___________________(fill in your own answer)

Right now, it has to be one or the other. Nobody knew that Paul George would blow up like that but Pacers took care of him and develop him right and now, he is close to be a superstar in this league. That is what Hawks should do, they should gather assets while develop all of the players they have and bring players that will fix to a system not go against it.

I think we have to rebuild. Why are we going to get right now? Al Jefferson? Paul Milsap? You think those guys along with Al, Jeff and mid first rounders is going to work?

[Peoriabird]

Did you forget that we tried this before?

It didn't work.

Its o.k. to be good! It really is! I don't get it...Y'all prefer a bad product over a good product with the hope that it turns into a great product?

[Plainview1981]

Its o.k. to be good! It really is! I don't get it...Y'all prefer a bad product over a good product with the hope that it turns into a great product?

The last rebuilding effort failed because Billy was such a moron.

Yes, there is something wrong with losing in the first or 2nd round. In the long run, those teams mean nothing and are forgotten. I mean, who cares about the Blaylock, Smith, Leattner and Deke teams besides the few people here?

Nobody else.

[Peoriabird]

The last rebuilding effort failed because Billy was such a moron.

Yes, there is something wrong with losing in the first or 2nd round. In the long run, those teams mean nothing and are forgotten. I mean, who cares about the Blaylock, Smith, Leattner and Deke teams besides the few people here?

Nobody else.

Who is to say that our ceiling is the second round? And who to say that our ceiling 5 years after tanking would be higher?

[TheFuzz]

Horford isnt someone you build around at all. He is a guy who can play a chris bosh role on a contender. He is not a guy you rely on to create his own offense or a guy you give the ball to when you need a score. He is a guy who will knock down the open jumpers off of pick and roll plays or defensive breakdowns and he will get you the occasional 20-25 point games when hes feeling it, and he will make some hustle plays. That is horford. He is a 3rd option.

You cant win a championship with a bunch of 3rd options. We have all seen it b4. A team who doesnt have a star but play team ball win 50+ games in the regular season then wilt fast in the playoffs because they dont have a go to guy to score when the defensive intensity rises and the pressure is on.

you dont need an all star team to win a championship but you still need that ALL NBA MVP caliber player who can preform big on the big stage in high pressure situations against elite teams.

Of course we never had that. We had fake stars who stick their chest out and will give you those 30 point games when they are playing the bobcats,pistons, and wizards. But when the Big boy heat or whatever elite team come to town all of a sudden they play like kittens.

Right, we shouldn't build AROUND Horford, but I do think we could build with him.

I just think something like

Jrue Holliday or Rondo

Whoever! Jenkins?

Gallinari

Horford

M. Gasol

+some solid depth

could win a championship if well coached. Obviously we won't get those exact players, but a team built that way, with top 10ish players at 4 positions, fantastic defense and few weaknesses could certainly win something. I don't know if pulling together a team like that would be any easier than bringing in just one or two guys, but I do think it's a viable alternative considering the lack of "superstars".

The bottom line if we miss out on CP3/Howard is this: We need more assets, either for trade or developing. I just think the "superstar or bust" mentality is SLIGHTLY overblown. It's more like superstar or be incredibly smart/lucky or bust.

[Buzzard]

It works the other way also.Who wouldn't have thought Nash, Kobe, Artest, Gasol, Howard would have been so awful? Yes. Once D'Antoni was hired it may have been easier to see, but that is an immensely talented 5. You can't look on paper and decide these things. Try eke was a 20/5/5 player his rookie yr. I have no problem with himas part of any plan B.W

With you coach. He can put up numbers in bunches and what I like just as much is he is not a undersized two guard.

[AHF]

Tyreke Evans has a career .520 TS%. That isn't the guy you want taking a lot of shots unless you think that will dramatically change. That is worse than Monta Ellis as far as efficiency goes.

At least Evans has the potential to be a real defender, but his 15 shots per game average for his career helps drive raw numbers more than scoring that promotes winning.

In his defense, I will point out that he improved this season by taking fewer shots and better shots. He needs to continue that trend of better selection and conversion. His career high FGA season was also his sub-.500 TS% seasons (for reference, a sub-.500 TS% is worse than Josh Smith levels of efficiency).

[Wretch]

So what should we do then, Hotlanta, W and anybody else who wants to answer?

a) built a team of tier 3 - 4 players, continued go to the playoffs then get ousted in the 1st or 2nd round (same thing every year, being called Team Treadmill)

b) Rebuilt from the ground up with new players and do "player development", sure we wont go to the playoffs but we will have lottery picks and be built for the future

c) Combined the two

d) None of the Above

e) ___________________(fill in your own answer)

Right now, it has to be one or the other. Nobody knew that Paul George would blow up like that but Pacers took care of him and develop him right and now, he is close to be a superstar in this league. That is what Hawks should do, they should gather assets while develop all of the players they have and bring players that will fix to a system not go against it.

Just like people who support plan B are going under the assumption that building through the draft is foly, I'm going with the assumption that going with plan B means our ceiling is the 2nd round. Given the choice, I would rather rebuild.

At the end of 3-5 years...

Best case scenarios:

Plan B) You make the ECF's. Finals is highly doubtful. Either way, repeat trips will be hindered by BETTER teams...and that's IF you can get through them. But best case means you beat Chicago, Miami, Indiana, and anyone else that rises...and you make the ECF's. I do not see multiple ECF's, championships, or repeat championships going with Plan B.

Rebuild) You land a cornerstone or two like a Blake Griffin, Paul Pierce, Dirk, Westbrook, Wade, Rose, Deron or even a few VERY good players like Horford. I highly doubt we would land a legendary player like Kobe or Barkley as much as I doubt that Plan B wins us a championship...but it's possible.

Worst case scenarios:

Plan B)

Rebuild) Worst case is you end up in the lottery for 5-6 years and don't make the playoffs. But you WILL have valuable assets, in the form of HIGH draft picks and players with HIGH potential, to work with throughout the entirety of the rebuild. A good scouting department and decent management gives you a good chance at building a winning culture utilizing the upper part of the NBA draft.

What to do...?

The plan, if we don't get CP3/Howard should be DRAFT focused, talent acquisition. Stockpiling talent and assets should be the priority, NOT making the playoffs. If young stud becomes available via RFA then you sign him - but it's not likely because those kinds of players either A) resign with their teams or B) try to test the market and end up getting matched anyway. You don't make moves for veterans that are going to give you a push for the bottom seed of the playoffs, because you're not accomplishing anything with a late lottery pick or a low teens playoff consolation prize pick.

So...you just acquire talent. You do what Billy Knight did, except you let the team slide and you don't let a bunch of free agents (that you don't intend to keep) like Bobby Sura kill your draft position. You take the potential franchise PG when he's right there in your face - and you already have 4 forwards/guards. You don't make the promise to Shelden Williams. You let the young guys play! You don't offer a Kobe-like contract to a declining Joe Johnson. You keep acquiring talent until somebody breaks out...and eventually somebody WILL.

THEN you build around that kind of talent with an Al Jefferson, Al Horford, and any number of 2nd and 3rd tier, complimentary players that become available. If you don't already have the coach, GET him. THEN make some lateral moves to get your engine a compliment. Get people talking about your exciting young team. PROMOTE said team to your local market...put a giant picture of your young star outside of you building. National exposure will come. Free agents will see that your team has elite talent in place and you keep building on that as long as you can and you *NEVER* accept where you are...even if you make or win the NBA Finals. Teams ALWAYS look to improve and stay ahead of the game.

That'd be my plan...not spend a bunch of money just because I want to see a team win 50 games every year and I'm afraid of losing.

Edited June 20, 2013 by Wretch

[TheNorthCydeRises]

This fan base is nuts! Championship or Bust? Retarded. So Oklahoma City and Memphis should disband since they won't win a championship? Clippers too? Indy? There is nothing wrong with being a very good team awaiting your big break like the Spurs did all those 1st and 2nd round exit years.

The championship or bust mentality is nuts, especially when you've never even been to a Conference Final. The funny thing is that all of these people have so much confidence that Ferry can build a contender here, but don't trust that he can do it without going into the Lottery. They don't trust him to build that contender through free agency or via trades. They want him to do with with young talent and draft picks.

If that's the case, we need to trade Al Horford for a high draft pick immediately after we fail to get Howard and Paul. Go ahead and call up Cleveland, Orlando, and Washington and tell them that they can have Al Horford in exchange for their draft pick this year and some of their young talent and/or journeyman players

Orlando may not do it, but I'm sure we could get the attention of a team like Cleveland, if we gave them the prospect of adding an All-Star PF in exchange for the #1 pick, Tristian Thompson ( drafted 4th in 2011 ), Wayne Ellington ( drafted 28th in 2009 ), and their 2nd round pick in 2013 ( #31 pick ).

The real sad thing is that 90% of these people who wouldn't mind going this route, will never spend a DIME at Philips Arena to see a team that they KNOW is going to lose 70% of the time at home. They say they have a better time rooting for a bad team that has the hope to be good ( because that's the only type of hope you can have ), than to root for a team that is good, but not good enough to beat the top teams in the conference, which limits their championship potential.

There's no such thing as "halfway tanking". If you're going to tank, you may as well go all the way.

Just support the team at the arena, when we're bad.

Edited June 20, 2013 by northcyde

[Chinky_eyed_hawk]

The championship or bust mentality is nuts, especially when you've never even been to a Conference Final. The funny thing is that all of these people have so much confidence that Ferry can build a contender here, but don't trust that he can do it without going into the Lottery. They don't trust him to build that contender through free agency or via trades. They want him to do with with young talent and draft picks.

If that's the case, we need to trade Al Horford for a high draft pick immediately after we fail to get Howard and Paul. Go ahead and call up Cleveland, Orlando, and Washington and tell them that they can have Al Horford in exchange for their draft pick this year and some of their young talent and/or journeyman players

Orlando may not do it, but I'm sure we could get the attention of a team like Cleveland, if we gave them the prospect of adding an All-Star PF in exchange for the #1 pick, Tristian Thompson ( drafted 4th in 2011 ), Wayne Ellington ( drafted 28th in 2009 ), and their 2nd round pick in 2013 ( #31 pick ).

The real sad thing is that 90% of these people who wouldn't mind going this route, will never spend a DIME at Philips Arena to see a team that they KNOW is going to lose 70% of the time at home. They say they have a better time rooting for a bad team that has the hope to be good ( because that's the only type of hope you can have ), than to root for a team that is good, but not good enough to beat the top teams in the conference, which limits their championship potential.

There's no such thing as "halfway tanking". If you're going to tank, you may as well go all the way.

Just support the team at the arena, when we're bad.

Agreed. We all agree that DF is the most competent GM we've had in the last 15 years or might I say franchise history? His approval rating right now is through the rough and that's with making only a few moves. Give him the reigns and see what he can do. Although it's been frustrating to see a team get bounce the 2nd round the last several years, it was way tougher to watch the several bad years that proceeded that.

I honestly feel that the spirit group, DF, Bud will change the culture here in ATL. I am ready to roll with that.